Central Bank Digital Currency,Credit Supply,and Financial Stability

We examine the implications of central bank digital currency (CBDC) for credit supply and financial stability using a monetary general equilibrium model. The introduction of deposits in CBDC account decreases credit supply by banks, raising the nominal interest rate and lowering a bank's reserve-deposit ratio. This increases the likelihood of bank panic in which banks exhaust cash reserves. However, once the central bank can lend all the deposits in CBDC account to banks, an increase in the quantity of CBDC which does not require reserve holdings can enhance financial stability by increasing credit supply and lowering nominal interest rate.     

CBDC uncertainty: Financial market implications

The current state of the art in the central bank digital currency (CBDC) literature views indexes constructed from digital currency news to be fully informed about CBDC uncertainty and its impact on the financial system. We argue that the hedging behavior of participants in the currency futures market could be more informative than CBDC uncertainty news in the presence of limited risk absorption capacity in futures markets. We show that the hedging factor has a statistically significant effect on financial market risk aversion and measures of uncertainty. The hedging behavior of currency futures market participants is informative of agents' reactions to the news and central bank policies around CBDC. Our results also show that CBDC uncertainty is a significant risk transmitter in the financial system. Hence, this characteristic makes the hedging factor even more important because it can directly impact risk aversion via its moderating effects, which later influence CBDC uncertainty.     

The interpretation of CBDC within an endogenous money framework

Central bank digital currency (CBDC) has increasingly received attention among policymakers and academics. From a theoretical perspective, the introduction of a CBDC arouses long-standing questions, foreseeing the possibility for the private (non-financial) sector to access the central bank reserves. The aim of this paper is to strengthen the understanding of the CBDC through the Endogenous Money Theory (EMT). The paper examines the balance sheets of the central bank, commercial banks, and the non-financial private system, tracking all the assets and liabilities of the macro-agents involved in the introduction of a CBDC. It explains the logical chain of relationships starting with the creation of bank loans from commercial banks, transformed into deposits, and ultimately converted into CBDC. Such a chain of relationships is also explained by amending the four quadrants model proposed by many post-Keynesian scholars.     

The impact of central bank digital currency news on the stock and cryptocurrency markets: Evidence from the TVP-VAR model

This study employs a non-linear framework to investigate the impacts of central bank digital currency (CBDC) news on the financial and cryptocurrency markets. The time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model developed by Primiceri (2005) is estimated based on weekly data from the first week of January 2015 to the last week of December 2021. The vector of endogenous variables in the VAR estimation contains the Central Bank Digital Currency uncertainty index (CBDCU), cryptocurrency policy uncertainty index, S&P 500 index, VIX, and Bitcoin price. The TVP-VAR model’s time-varying responses demonstrated that the reactions of the cryptocurrency market to central bank digital currency announcements vary remarkably over time. The impacts of the CBDC shocks on the financial market have been increasingly visible during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the time-varying forecast error decompositions, CBDCU and VIX shocks have accounted for most of the variance in cryptocurrency uncertainty and Bitcoin return shocks, notably during the COVID-19 period.     

Central bank digital currency: A systematic literature review using text mining approach

Central bank digital currency (CBDC) is seen as a possible next step in the evolution of money, offering a more stable unit of account, a more efficient medium of exchange, and a safer way to store value. However, since it began to get significant attention from academics and practitioners a few years ago, many concerns about how a central bank may build an efficient CBDC and how it would impact a country's current financial system still remain unanswered satisfactorily. Based on the combination of text mining and systematic review methods, this work presents a thorough literature assessment of 191 academic papers on CBDC in order to identify major research issues and knowledge gaps that may be addressed in the future. We find seven primary research themes linked to CBDC including (1) Central bank, (2) CBDC and other digital currency, (3) CBDC and money markets, (4) CBDC and monetary policy, (5) CBDC design and technologies, (6) CBDC and payment system, and (7) CBDC and financial stability and regulatory. The finding helps provide both overall and in-depth views of the current state of research in digital fiat currency topics, as well as drawing some important implications and suggestions on directions for the future research.     

Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions

Using the CAViaR tool to estimate the value-at-risk (VaR) and the Granger causality risk test to quantify extreme risk spillovers, we propose an extreme risk spillover network for analysing the interconnectedness across financial institutions. We construct extreme risk spillover networks at 1% and 5% risk levels (which we denote 1% and 5% VaR networks) based on the daily returns of 84 publicly listed financial institutions from four sectors—banks, diversified financials, insurance and real estate—during the period 2006–2015. We find that extreme risk spillover networks have a time-lag effect. Both the static and dynamic networks show that on average the real estate and bank sectors are net senders of extreme risk spillovers and the insurance and diversified financials sectors are net recipients, which coheres with the evidence from the recent global financial crisis. The networks during the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis exhibited distinctive topological features that differed from those in tranquil periods. Our approach supplies new information on the interconnectedness across financial agents that will prove valuable not only to investors and hedge fund managers, but also to regulators and policy-makers.     

Central bank digital currency and the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy: A DSGE analysis

Implementing a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in the traditional fiat system is less effective than desired because of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on interest rates and the cash barrier. Would this problem be solved if a new form of currency was introduced, i.e., central bank digital currency (CBDC), in the economy? To answer this question, we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the effectiveness of NIRP upon the introduction of CBDC. The results suggest that: (i) The CBDC can eliminate the ZLB constraint and stabilize the economic fluctuations caused by NIRP. (ii) The central bank can implement NIRP by directly adjusting the interest rate of digital currency to stimulate consumption, investment, and output and to accelerate macroeconomic recovery. (iii) Welfare analysis shows that the central bank can effectively choose different NIRP rules according to the economic objectives.     

Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion

Two observations suggest that financial globalization played an important role in the recent financial crisis. First, more than half of the rise in net borrowing of the U.S. non-financial sectors since the mid-1980s has been financed by foreign lending. Second, the collapse of the U.S. housing and mortgage-backed-securities markets had worldwide effects on financial institutions and asset markets. Using an open-economy model where financial intermediaries play a central role, we show that financial integration leads to a sharp rise in net credit in the most financially developed country and to large asset price spillovers of country-specific shocks to bank capital. The impacts of these shocks on asset prices are amplified by bank capital requirements based on mark-to-market.     

央行数字货币体系构建对金融系统的影响

本文基于货币演化逻辑以及公共选择理论的视角,论证了央行数字货币产生的必要性;从价值维度、技术维度、运营维度、应用维度的视角,论证了央行数字货币体系构建的充分性.央行数字货币体系构建过程中可能面临三个主要选择:计不计息、匿不匿名、跨不跨境.这三个选择对金融系统的影响体现为:现金、银行存款与央行数字货币的"三角平衡"问题,...     

Bank capital shortfall in the euro area

We quantify the bank capital shortfall that results from a financial crisis by estimating a macro-finance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the interactions between the financial and real sectors of the euro-area economy. The introduction of both deposit and shadow banks captures several characteristics of the banking system and reveals a financial amplification mechanism. By using a combination of a large positive risk shock and a large negative investment shock, we show that a crisis similar to that observed in 2008 would generate a bank capital shortfall between 2.2% and 3% of euro-area GDP, which corresponds to approximately 207–282 billion euros.     

Governance and monetary policy impacts on public acceptance of CBDC adoption

Launching the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is increasingly recognized as a key priority by several governments. Unknown are, however, the primary factors of public support for the initiative and CBDC acceptance choices. Moreover, despite the fact that CBDC's success requires substantial public support, there is less empirical data of how the public perceives and speaks about it. This research seeks to fill in these gaps using Facebook data from May 2012 to April 2022 using deep learning algorithms for text mining. This research demonstrates that government performance, inflation rate, economic inequality, and technological literacy have a significant influence on the public's perception of CBDC. The government's support of CBDC is determined by public sentiment, the degree of adoption of decentralized finance (Defi), and monetary policy settings. The degree of wealth inequality and technological literacy are two other demographic elements that influence the government's adoption of CBDC.     

Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set

Using a unique data set on bank distress, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the determinants of bank soundness in the European Union (EU) as a whole. The estimation results are consistent with the hypothesis that bank risks have converged across EU members, providing empirical support for introduction of a more centralized system of financial regulation in the EU. We show that asset quality and earning profile of banks are important determinants of bank distress next to leverage, suggesting that these should be central in EU-wide financial regulation and supervision. We find that market discipline, both by depositors and by stock market participants, plays a role in the EU, supporting the notion that transparency and dissemination of financial information would contribute to the financial soundness of banks. Our data also point to the presence of contagion effects, relatively higher fragility of concentrated banking sectors, and hazards associated with high ratios of wholesale funding.     

Macro-Networks: An application to euro area financial accounts

This paper develops a financial network, designated the “Macro-Network”, that depicts the connections between the main financial and non-financial sectors of the economy in the various financial instruments of the euro area. The Macro-Network comprises of linkages across financial and non-financial sectors in each country. These country-level sector networks are then connected by the cross-border links between the individual banking sectors. Using the Macro-Network to simulate financial shocks, we find that the propagation effects depend on the underlying network structure, which evolves over time. After the financial crisis, bilateral linkages contracted sharply, reflecting the surge in counterparty risk and the de-leveraging processes. Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that even after this process, vulnerabilities remained in the euro area financial system, while a more diversified portfolio of cross-border exposures might mitigate the shock effects. We identify sectors which are most relevant for the propagation of financial shocks in the Macro-Network.     

The macroeconomic relevance of bank and nonbank credit: An exploration of U.S. data

This paper exploits the Financial Accounts of the United States to derive long time series of bank and nonbank credit to different sectors, and to examine the cyclical behavior of these series in relation to (i) the long-term business cycle, (ii) recessions and recoveries, and (iii) systemic financial crises. We find that bank and nonbank credit exhibit different dynamics throughout the business cycle. We also examine the role of bank and nonbank credit in the creation of financial interconnections and illustrate a method to conduct macro-financial stability assessments.     

Towards a measure of financial fragility

The paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks’ probabilities of default and banks’ profits – to a proxy of welfare.      

基层央行开展金融消费权益保护工作的探索与思考

本文从2008年全球金融危机以来我国开展金融消费权益保护工作的基本情况出发,介绍了我国金融消费权益保护的现状、侵害消费者权益的主要表现形式、金融消费者保护组织体系及主要职责、人民银行开展金融消费权益保护工作的有益探索等内容,概述了以美英为代表的发达国家和世界主要经济体开展金融消费者保护工作的经验,指出了目前基层央行在开展金融消费权益保护工作存在的主要问题,最后,根据基层央行履职实际有针对性地提出了若干建议。     

金融调控中的物价稳定与金融稳定:从分离到融合的逻辑演进

从历史上考察,中央银行实施货币政策和充当最后贷款人,客观上使其具有了保持物价稳定和维护金融稳定的职能。20世纪80年代以后,许多国家的金融调控出现了明显变化,逐步向稳定物价的单一目标方向发展,金融监管则出现了"去央行化"的趋势,使中央银行失去了维护金融稳定的能力和手段。经济全球化产生了很多影响物价稳定与金融稳定的新因素,要求中央银行在保持物价稳定的同时,对金融稳定给予更多关注。全球金融危机后,国际社会和主要经济体加快了宏观审慎管理体系的构建,这为解决物价稳定与金融稳定的协调配合提供了新思路。如果将物价稳定与金融稳定纳入到宏观审慎管理的视野,就有可能在金融调控中二者兼顾,建立起新的金融调控范式。     

货币政策、消费品和投资品通货膨胀——基于金融加速器视角

本文建立一个包含消费品和投资品生产的两部门新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并且引入金融加速器以分析货币政策对消费品和投资品通货膨胀的影响机制,同时使用1999Q1至2015Q4的中国宏观经济数据对模型进行贝叶斯估计。估计结果表明,两个部门的菲利普斯曲线都具有较高的价格粘性。外部融资溢价对两个部门企业投资的影响存在异质性,投资品部门的金融加速器效应更加明显。脉冲响应分析表明货币政策扩张时,投资品部门的产出和通胀膨胀上升幅度比消费品部门更大。理论模型的脉冲响应与VAR实证分析得到的经验事实相一致。金融摩擦导致的消费品和投资品部门需求结构的异质性是解释货币政策对两个部门影响差异的关键。数值模拟分析发现金融加速器机制主要改变货币政策对投资品产出和通货膨胀的影响,对消费品部门影响改变较小。方差分解结果表明加总技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击和货币政策冲击是经济波动的主要来源。     

Return spillover analysis across central bank digital currency attention and cryptocurrency markets

Many central banks have now developed their digital currencies in response to the challenges posed by the proliferation of decentralised digital cryptocurrencies. However, little is known about the effects of the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on extant digital cryptocurrencies. This paper, therefore, aims to identify both the time- and frequency-domain spillover effects among cryptocurrency markets and a newly developed central bank digital currencies attention index (CBDCAI) by using two TVP-VAR-based spillover models. Our results demonstrate that CBDC attention significantly impacts cryptocurrency markets. Also, most investors in cryptocurrency markets are more likely to trade in the short term. The results of this study contribute to helping investors and investment institutions effectively avoid investment risks, reduce losses, and predict the return of some cryptocurrencies. Also help policymakers better understand the impact of markets and policies, and provide a reference for them to formulate policies.     

The determinants of issuing central bank digital currencies

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are considered ‘digital fiat currencies’ that do not have a physical form, which is a key distinction from conventional fiat money. This study aims to identify factors that influence central banks’ decisions in taking advanced actions to issue CBDC, namely, the economic, market, demographic and technical factors. Data is collected from the CBDC Tracker and the WB database for the period 2013–2021. We applied the Pooled OLS estimations to examine the impact of the key factors on being in an advanced stage for issuing CBDC; moreover, probit and logistic regression are employed to robust our results and overcome the limitations of Pooled OLS. The findings demonstrate that underdeveloped economies are more engaged in issuing CBDC. Besides, better regulations, FDI inflow, young populations, and more urban societies would increase the probability of CBDC issuance. Nevertheless, results show the impact of technical factors is heterogeneous across countries.