Relationship between franking credits and the market risk premium: a comment

This paper examines two arguments presented in Gray and Hall (2006). First, that the generally used estimate of 0.06 for the market risk premium within the Officer version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the generally used estimate of 0.50 for the parameter ‘gamma’ within the Officer framework are jointly inconsistent with evidence concerning the market risk premium in the standard version of the CAPM. Second, that the first two of these parameter estimates are also jointly inconsistent with the observed cash dividend yield on the Australian market. To resolve these problems, Gray and Hall recommend setting gamma to zero. The present paper shows that the first argument does not account for the fact that imputation induces a reduction in the market risk premium as defined in the standard version of the CAPM. The present paper also shows that both arguments identify a problem that characterizes only parts of the Officer framework, and these parts are not generally used in Australia. Therefore, rather than suggesting that gamma should be zero, Gray and Hall's analysis identifies parts of the Officer framework that should be avoided.     

汲取金融危机教训 推进资本市场稳健发展

美国推崇的新自由主义经济和金融自由化是这次金融危机形成的根源。我国资本市场建设,既不能脱离国际金融市场搞封闭运行,又不能照抄照搬国外模式;要从我国实际出发,按照邓小平理论,在科学发展观的指引下,坚持改革开放,构建中国特色的资本市场。为此,还要正确处理好三个方面的关系,即大力发展与防范风险的关系、宏观调控与市场机制的关系、发展创新与市场监管的关系。     

2007年中国金融市场运行分析报告

2007年,我国金融市场继续保持了快速健康的发展势头,货币市场成交继续放大,市场利率短期波动加剧;债券市场运行平稳,债券指数走势较为疲弱;股票市场成交大幅放大,市场指数创出新高;人民币继续走强,外汇市场成交保持稳定;黄金市场成交量快速增长,黄金价格创出新高;期货市场成交活跃,商品期货价格全面上涨。总体而言,我国金融市场规模不断拓展、市场功能明显提升、市场结构持续优化、金融创新稳步推进,市场制度建设日益完善,对外开放程度逐步加深,多层次金融市场建设取得新进展,在我国金融体系和经济发展中的地位和作用进一步提高。     

农村家庭金融市场参与影响因素的比较研究

通过金融深化增加农村家庭参与金融市场的机会,让金融为广大农村家庭服务,改善其资源配置,解决农村金融抑制.本文将农村家庭金融资产分为安全型和风险型,以问卷调查获取的数据建立Logistic回归模型对东部地区与西部地区农村家庭参与金融市场的决定因素进行研究和比较.模型结果验证了财富效应假设、人力资本假设在东西部存在不同的影响结果,但资产回报率越高则农村家庭参与度越高在东西部的影响都非常显著,此外,家庭控制变量影响在东西部地区有不同的表现.     

建立和完善金融市场监测分析体系

本课题以研究金融市场风险、金融市场政策传导和金融产品创新发展与金融市场监测分析体系框架的关系为出发点,在深入研究分析我国金融市场监测分析体系现状和国际经验的基础上,提出了构建和完善我国金融市场监测分析体系框架的初步设想。     

Capital and income financialization: Accounting for the 2008 financial crisis

Financialization is recognised as a key feature of the 2008 financial crisis. We argue that a lesson is the need for an accounting framework which focuses upon financialization allowing it to be monitored and controlled by stakeholders. We argue that financialization has been permitted through the failure of accounting to distinguish distributable income from capital gains/transfers and to distinguish productive from speculative capital. We introduce an accounting presentation (4S accounting) which effectively makes these distinctions. We use a stylized example to illustrate how it should be applied to the financial reporting of banks.     

Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence

In this paper, we examine whether pre-crisis leading indicators help explain pressures on the exchange rate (and its volatility) during the global financial crisis. We use a unique data set that covers 149 countries and 58 indicators, and estimation techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Our results are threefold: First and foremost, we find that price stability plays a pivotal role as a determinant of exchange rate pressures. More specifically, the currencies of countries that experienced higher inflation prior to the crisis tend to be more affected in times of stress. Second, we investigate potential effects that vary with the level of pre-crisis inflation. In this vein, our results reveal that an increase in domestic savings reduces the severity of pressures in countries that experienced a low-inflation environment prior to the crisis. Finally, we find evidence of the mitigating effects of international reserves on the volatility of exchange rate pressures.     

Testing market efficiency with the pricing kernel

Market efficiency and the pricing kernel are closely related. A non-monotonic decreasing pricing kernel implies the existence of a trading strategy in contingent claims that stochastically dominates a direct investment in the market. Moreover, a market is assumed to be efficient only if no dominating strategies exist. Empirically, many studies of the pricing kernel find non-monotonicity, apparently ruling out market efficiency. However, these results are often unreliable, because the pricing measures of the pricing kernel are estimated using differing filtration sets. We show this effect both theoretically and empirically, and we discuss recent approaches in the literature for achieving more reliable estimates of the pricing kernel, potentially leading to better tests of market efficiency.     

The 2008 financial crisis: Stock market contagion and its determinants

In this paper, we investigate worldwide contagion and its determinants during the 2008 financial crisis. Utilizing an international sample of returns from 2003 to 2009, we consider both uni- and bi-directional contagion. After controlling for crisis-related volatility, we find strong evidence that cross-market linkages increase among many financial markets. In contrast to previous crises, contagion following the 2008 global financial crisis is not confined to emerging markets. The United States and other mature financial markets in the sample transmit and receive contagion. Country markets are less influenced by regions than they are by other country markets. We also construct variables that represent relative changes in economic variables before and during the crisis. We find that both economic fundamentals such as trade structure, interest rates, inflation rates, industrial production, and regional effects, and investors’ risk aversion contribute to international contagion.     

On the rationality of Korea's stock market: was the recent Korean financial crisis due to fundamental factors?

This paper examines whether the recent financial crisis in Korea was due to fundamental factors. To address this issue, we identify various components of Korea's stock market prices (KOSPI) and examine their responses to different types of shocks. Given the stationary behavior of KOSPI dividends, we relate stock price directly to earnings by deriving and using a log-linear model of the spread between price and earnings with a time-varying discount factor. Therefore, stock-price movements are explained by earnings (numerator component), time-varying discount factors (denominator component), and non-fundamental factors. Although we find evidence of substantial non-fundamental components in Korea's stock market prices, the sudden decline in Korea's stock market prices during the 1997 financial crisis was primarily due to fundamental components, in particular, the numerator component (e.g. earnings) combined with the denominator component (i.e. time-varying discount factor) rather than non-fundamental factors.     

Constructing Asset Pricing Models With Specific Factor Loadings

We demonstrate how one can build pricing formulae in which factors other than beta may be viewed as determinants of asset returns. This is important conceptually as it demonstrates how the additional factors can compensate for a market portfolio proxy that is mis‐specified, and also shows how such a pricing model can be specified ex ante. The procedure is implemented by first selecting an ‘orthogonal’ portfolio which falls on the mean‐variance efficient frontier computed from the empirical average returns, variances and covariances on the equity securities of a large sample of firms. One then determines the inefficient index portfolio which leads to a vector of betas that when multiplied by the average return on the orthogonal portfolio, and which when subtracted from the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, yields an error vector that is equal to the vector of numerical values for the variables that are to form the basis of the asset pricing formula. There will then be a perfect linear relationship between the vector of average returns for the firms comprising the sample, the vector of betas based on the inefficient index portfolio and such other factors that are deemed to be important in the asset pricing process. We illustrate computational procedures using a numerical example based on the quality of information contained in published corporate financial statements.     

Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises

We investigate whether liquidity is an important price factor in the US corporate bond market. In particular, we focus on whether liquidity effects are more pronounced in periods of financial crises, especially for bonds with high credit risk, using a unique data set covering more than 20,000 bonds, between October 2004 and December 2008. We employ a wide range of liquidity measures and find that liquidity effects account for approximately 14% of the explained market-wide corporate yield spread changes. We conclude that the economic impact of the liquidity measures is significantly larger in periods of crisis, and for speculative grade bonds.     

Bank size, market concentration, and bank earnings volatility in the US

We examine whether bank earnings volatility depends on bank size and the degree of concentration in the banking sector. Using quarterly data for non-investment banks in the United States for the period 2004Q1-2009Q4 and controlling for the quality of management, leverage, and diversification, we find that bank size reduces return volatility. The negative impact of bank size on bank earnings volatility decreases (in absolute terms) with market concentration. We also find that larger banks located in concentrated markets have experienced higher volatility during the recent financial crisis.     

A financial CCAPM and economic inequalities

This paper considers a wealth heterogeneous multi-agent (MA) financial pricing CCAPM model. It is based on the following observations: (a) A distinction between what agents are willing to pay for consumption and what they actually pay. The former is a function of a number of factors including the agent’s wealth and risk preferences and the latter is a function of all other agents’ aggregate consumption or equivalently, their wealth committed to consumption. (b) Unlike traditional pricing models that define a representative agent underlying the pricing model, this paper assumes that each agent is in fact ‘Cournot-gaming’ a market defined by all other agents. This results in a decomposition of an n-agents game into n games of two agents, one a specific agent and the other a synthetic agent (a proxy for all other agents), on the basis of which an equilibrium consumption price solution is defined. The paper’s essential results are twofold. First, a Martingale pricing model is defined for each individual agent expressing the consumer willingness to pay (his utility price) and the market price—the price that all agents pay for consumption. In this sense, price is unique defined by each agent’s ‘Cournot game’ Agents’ consumption are then adjusted accordingly to meet the market price. Second, the pricing model defined is shown to account for agents wealth distribution pointing out that all agents valuations are a function of their and others’ wealth, the information they have about each other and other factors which are discussed in the text. When an agent has no wealth or cannot affect the market price of consumption, then this pricing model is reduced to the standard CCAPM model while any agent with an appreciable wealth compared to other agents, is shown to value returns (and thus future consumption) less than wealth-poor agents. As a result, this paper will argue that even in a financial market with an infinite number of agents, if there are some agents that are large enough to affect the market price by their decisions, such agents have an arbitrage advantage over the poorer agents. The financial CCAPM MA pricing model has a number of implications, some of which are considered in this paper. Finally, some simple examples are considered to highlight the applicability of this paper to specific financial issues.     

The informational efficiency and the financial crashes

The evolution of the daily informational efficiency is measured for different stock market indices (Japanese, Malaysian, Russian, Mexican, and the US markets) by using the local entropy and the symbolic time series analysis. There is some evidence that for different stock markets, the probability of having a crash increases as the informational efficiency decreases. Further results suggest that the latter probability also increases for jumping to a less efficient market. In addition, the US stock market seems to be the most structurally efficient and the Russian is the most inefficient, maybe because is a young market, recently established in 1995.     

Stock market recovery from the 2008 financial crisis: The differences across Europe

This study investigates the influence of the 2008 financial crisis on a number of European stock markets. The sample includes EU benchmark indices as well as European markets with slowed or hampered recovery over a period of ten years (2004–2014) thus allowing a comparison on their development before, during and after the crisis. We utilize a novel approach based on a combination of stochastic modeling and continuous wavelet transform. It enables a robust distinction between expected and unexpected spillover effects as well as assessment of the expected speed of European stock markets recovery. It further quantifies the temporal boundaries of absorption of negative and positive shocks coming from the US stock market and explains the observed asymmetry. The studied European markets are divided into several groups and expectations are built on the speed of their recovery. We find that the major reasons for the discrepancies observed between actual and expected recovery for some of the markets are due to structural breaks in the co-movement with US market as well as to weak domestic fundamentals.     

The bright side of market power in Asian banking: Implications of bank capitalization and financial freedom

Using a sample of listed banks in the Asia-Pacific region from 2000 to 2016, this paper documents that higher market power reduces risk taking but increases loan growth and performance in banking. This highlights the "bright side" of bank market power in general. However, the positive effect of market power on bank stability is more pronounced for well-capitalized banks, although their performance tends to decline, and loan growth is unaffected by market power. Hence, bank capitalization plays an important role in strengthening financial stability due to an increase in bank market power. Moreover, banks with higher market power located in countries with a lower degree of financial freedom exhibit lower riskiness, higher loan growth, and better performance. Greater control by authorities in the financial sector is essential, not only to enhance financial stability, but also to boost financial intermediation and bank performance following an increase in bank market power.     

基于融资视角的中国金融结构与金融稳定研究

通过对中国金融运行的实证检验和分析发现,以银行中介和金融市场划分的两种金融结构各有优势,只要能够满足金融资源高效配置的金融结构都符合经济发展的需要,不必对金融结构进行人为的割裂。中国的金融体系存在着转化投资的高效率和资源配置的低效率这样一对突出矛盾,其主要原因是金融资源的配置失当,这是当前中国金融稳定的潜在威胁,解决问题的关键是要对金融体系进行市场化改革并完善基础设施建设。