当前全球中央银行研究的若干重点问题

国际金融危机以来,世界经济形势发生了复杂而深远的变化,一些影响长期化的新现象、新问题、新概念不断涌现。作为全球重要的宏观经济研究力量,各国中央银行纷纷着手对后危机时代的新理念、新规律展开深入研究,并努力进行政策性的探索。本文重点讨论当前全球中央银行比较关注的三大问题:一是负利率政策的逻辑与效果;二是全球稳定币的宏观政策挑战;三是气候变化导致的宏观金融风险。现有宏观理论研究存在的不足及政策实践面临的新问题,对研究工作者而言,既是重大挑战,也是难得的历史性机遇。应立足中国国情,放眼全球百年变局,密切跟踪极具未来性的热点问题和理论前沿并将其科学应用于我国高质量发展时代的政策实践。     

Accountable Governance in Corporate Groups: The Interrelationship of Law and Accounting

The complex structures of multinational corporate groups and their many subsidiaries facilitate the concealment of internal financial transactions and the profitability and taxation of operations in different jurisdictions. Current provisions for corporate governance by independent directors and auditors in ultimate holding companies fail to provide relevant information for most major stakeholders. Lawyers and accountants need to develop new structures for corporate governance and corporate social responsibility at every level, especially in respect of national taxation, to meet the proper interests of shareholders, employees, local communities and national governments, and to assist in the transition from centrally controlled and often abusive, to more participatory and responsible capitalism. Auditors have a key role in this and should be required to report on issues of variability in financial statements and to carry out special audits on matters of major concern.     

Can Employees Be Used to Overcome Independent Audit Limitations?

Independent financial statement auditors are appointed by shareholders to provide reasonable assurance on the reliability of financial statements published by management of reporting entities. However, in the last two decades questions have been raised concerning the credibility of external audits due to their apparent failure, especially following the spate of corporate collapses. This paper applies a critical review of literature and a multi‐theoretical governance perspective to examine the inherent limitation of independent external audits and argues that employees can contribute to reducing the limitation gap by strengthening governance through a structure that incorporates a board and employee management representation. It is argued that through this arrangement, auditors can benefit as they will be privy to additional information from employees about issues such as irregular matters that impact upon shareholders and other stakeholders, and control weaknesses across governance levels, allowing auditors to establish a broader understanding of organisational information that may otherwise be less readily available. Thus auditors can base their judgements in terms of audit risks, and develop audit plans based on more reliable information. The theoretical proposition emerging from these findings is that the traditional governance model should be refined to include employees as an additional component of governance.     

The construction of auditability: MBA rankings and assurance in practice

For much of the past decade, the audit profession has been enjoined to enter new and novel fields of assurance services. This call implies the importation of constructs from traditional attest financial audits into new domains to provide elevated levels of assurance for information-users and decision-makers. Little is presently known about the process by which audit scope, practices and communications about the work done are developed in these new fields. This paper attempts to shed light on these issues through an in-depth field study of KPMG’s “audit” of the Financial Times MBA rankings. The audit project is argued to import legitimacy to data provided by International Business Schools as well as imbue a derived legitimacy to the Financial Times rankings. At an operational level, audit planning, procedures and communicated written conclusions emerge as a much more negotiated and adaptive practice than rhetoric might suggest.     

融资租赁、银行信贷与企业投资

本文从企业投资视角探讨融资租赁与银行信贷之间是否存在替代关系,以及融资约束对于两者关系的作用机理。通过手工整理中国沪深两市 2004-2016 年间全部 A 股上市公司的年度融资租赁数据,并结合公司财务数据进行实证检验,结果表明:融资租赁和银行信贷都能够显著促进公司投资效率提高,并且融资租赁对于银行信贷具有显著的替代效应。本文进一步从融资约束视角验证融资租赁替代银行信贷的影响机制,发现公司的有形性资产净值率较低、资产负债率较高或是民营企业,则公司面临的融资约束程度越严重,融资租赁对银行信贷的替代作用就会越大。这不仅为融资租赁有助于实体经济发展提供了微观证据,也对于持续深化金融供给侧结构性改革,助力“六稳”“六保”具有政策启示。     

Embedding process mining into financial statement audits

The audit of financial statements is a complex and highly specialized process. Digitalization and the increasing automation of transaction processing create new challenges for auditors who carry out those audits. New data analysis techniques offer the opportunity to improve the auditing of financial statements and to overcome the limitations of traditional audit procedures when faced with increasingly large amounts of financially relevant transactions that are processed automatically or semi-automatically by computer systems. This study discusses process mining as a novel data analysis technique which has been receiving increased attention in the audit practice. Process mining makes it possible to analyse business processes in an automated manner. This study investigates how process mining can be integrated into contemporary audits by reviewing the relevant audit standards and incorporating the results from a field study. It demonstrates the feasibility of embodying process mining within financial statement audits in accordance with contemporary audit standards and generally accepted audit practices. Implementation of process mining increases the reliability of the audit conclusions and improves the robustness of audit evidence by replacing manual audit procedures. Process mining as novel data mining technique provides auditors the means to keep pace with current technological developments and challenges.     

行业变革下理财子公司的机遇和挑战

随着资管新规、理财新规和理财子公司管理办法的相继颁布,我国资产管理行业迎来了重大的变革。2019年,理财子公司陆续成立,作为一种全新的资产管理机构,因为体量大、背景深,对整个资管行业将产生重大影响。理财子公司成立于行业发生重大变革的背景下,面临着经营模式转型、关系重新定位、人才系统欠缺、能力亟待提升等方面的挑战,但同时也有市场机遇、政策机遇和转型机遇等方面的有利条件。面对行业变革带来的机遇和挑战,理财子公司要通过做好自身定位、打造合作共赢生态圈、建设三大体系、构筑四大基础,为客户和企业提供一站式金融服务。     

The UK Financial Sector and Risk Management in PFI Projects: A Survey

In PFI transactions the private companies which take on the obligation to build and manage a facility usually provide only a small fraction of the project's capital requirements. Most of the capital is borrowed from banks and other financial institutions. This poses challenges to financial services providers which often have to retain untypical residual project risks. This article describes the types of risks faced by financial services providers and the strategies they use to cope with these risks. Given the often politically-sensitive nature of PFI projects, the authors suggest that financial institutions should investigate a broader set of parameters than they do at present, which relate directly to the political economy of PFI projects.     

Incorporating big data in audits: Identifying inhibitors and a research agenda to address those inhibitors

With corporate investment in Big Data of $34 billion in 2013 growing to $232 billion through 2016 (Gartner 2012), the Big 4 accounting firms are aiming to be at the forefront of Big Data implementations. Notably, they see Big Data as an increasingly essential part of their assurance practice. We argue that while there is a place for Big Data in auditing, its application to auditing is less clear than it is in the other fields, such as marketing and medical research. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) provide a discussion of both the inhibitors of incorporating Big Data into financial statement audits; and (3) present a research agenda to identify approaches to ameliorate those inhibitors.     

Evolutionary Approaches and the Construction of Technology-Driven Regulations

Innovation technologies have substantially changed commerce and society. A new financial industry in the form of financial technology (fintech) initiated the era of the digital economy. At the same time, inherent risks in technology-driven financial innovations, such as technical risks, information asymmetry, and even potential systemic risks, necessitate regulatory responses. However, insufficient regulatory techniques, outdated financial laws, and conservative regulatory concepts make it difficult for traditional regulations based on financial intermediaries to adapt to the current environment of decentralized financial transactions. Technology-driven regulations focused on data monitoring could be a remedy for the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of traditional financial regulations and enhance effective protection of financial consumers’ rights and interests. This new regulatory model aims to build a system that integrates equal access to information on blockchain transactions by both parties to it (i.e., the regulators and the financial institutions they regulate) for the purpose of oversight, intelligent real-time oversight, and an experimental sandbox for developing regulatory technology. This dynamic and flexible financial regulatory system could effectively address fintech risks.     

The role of international auditing in the improvement of international financial reporting

In this paper, we describe the convergence of several forces that underscore the significance of independent auditors as key enablers of the improvement of international financial reporting. This paper is not an empirical research study but is intended to survey the landscape of international auditing. Based on our experience as auditing practitioners and academics, we describe and provide discussions of key conceptual issues surrounding international auditing harmonization and its relation to the implementation of international accounting standards. A matrix framework is presented at the conclusion of the paper to summarize the principal point of the paper that the regulations and control of the quality of audits is the critical factor in achieving high quality financial reporting. The next critical phase of the process is to improve the quality of the individual audits that take place around the world through government regulation, profession self-regulation, and quality assurance in international firms. IFAC has taken significant steps in strengthening its role as the global self-regulatory body for the profession, including improvements in standards and compliance. The establishment of a public oversight board with authority to discipline rather than persuade is a critical component for effective international auditing standards.     

A note on asset management and market risk

The textbook view on risk in asset management companies is summarized by Hull (Risk Management and Financial Institutions, p. 372, 2007): “For an asset manager the greatest risk is operational risk.” Using evidence from various panel regression models, we show that asset management revenues carry substantial market risks, a finding that challenges not only academic risk management literature on the predominance of operative risks, but also the current industry practice of not hedging market risks that are systematically built into the revenue-generation process. For asset management companies to return to an annuity model, these risks need to be managed more actively. Shareholders do not want to be exposed to market beta by investing in asset management companies; they want to participate in these companies’ alpha generation and take advantage of their fund-gathering expertise as financial intermediaries.     

Asset sales in the mutual fund industry: Who gains?

We analyze gains from intercorporate sales of mutual fund subsidiaries, using mandated SEC disclosures to assess the performance of mutual funds transferred by these transactions. Sellers are financial conglomerates (banks) using equity-based deals to transfer poorly performing funds to highly focused asset management companies. The transferred funds experience significant improvements in risk-adjusted returns, efficiency, and asset growth. These improvements are closely correlated with the gains in wealth to buyers and sellers at deal announcements, indicating the market efficiently capitalizes expected performance improvements. Our results provide evidence that these transactions transfer assets to acquirers better able to manage them, generating gains for fund holders and buyer and seller shareholders.     

互联网金融、存款竞争与银行风险承担

本文通过构建纳入互联网金融的银行环形城市模型,推演了“互联网金融→存款结构/付息成本→银行风险承担”的传导机制。在此基础上,以2003-2016年我国83家商业银行为样本,建立多重中介效应模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明:(1)互联网金融发展经由恶化存款结构和抬高付息成本两种渠道显著加重了银行风险承担水平,其中,恶化存款结构效应的相对贡献为50%左右,抬高付息成本效应的相对贡献为35%左右;(2)相较于互联网渠道构筑业态,互联网支付结算、互联网资源配置和互联网财富管理业态对银行存款结构和付息成本的不利影响更为强烈;(3)相对于国有、大规模、低流动性和低资本充足率商业银行,面对互联网金融的冲击,非国有、小规模、高流动性和高资本充足率商业银行的客户存款流失更快,平均付息成本上涨更多。     

将对未来的估计包含在今天的财务报表中

本文阐释了将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的方式,而不是为什么应当将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的问题。在今天的财务报表中包含对未来的估计并不是一个新概念,但用处却日益增加。这主要是因为会计准则制定机构认为,反映当前经济状况、并根据对未来的预期更新的对资产和负债的计量方式,将产生有利于做出经济决策的更为有用的信息,这正是财务报告的目标所在。这也是会计准则制定机构关注公允价值会计的原因。如何将对未来的估计包含在财务报表中,取决于资产和负债的计量属性,以及从财务报告角度对资产和负债的定义。现行资产和负债的定义取决于确定产生预期经济利益流入或流出的过去交易或事项,对于预期经济利益流入,还需要关注对预期的控制。因此,并不是所有预期经济利益的流入或流出都予以确认。附注披露能够帮助财务报表使用者理解已经在财务报表中确认的估计,并提供尚未确认估计的相关信息。将对未来的估计更多地包含在今天的财务报表中,将会产生与目前反映的收益有所不同的收益计量方式,但值得讨论的是,这种计量能够对经济决策提供更好的信息。     

What Is Systemic Risk?

The traditional view of risk in a financial system is that it is the summation of individual risks within the system. However, the financial crisis that started in 2007 has driven home that this view of risk is inadequate. It is the interactions of financial institutions and markets that determine the systemic risks that drive financial crises. We identify four types of systemic risk. These are (i) panics—banking crises due to multiple equilibria; (ii) banking crises due to asset price falls; (iii) contagion; and (iv) foreign exchange mismatches in the banking system.     

Lessons in Structuring Derivatives Exchanges

The global deregulation of financial markets has created newinvestment opportunities, which in turn require the developmentof new instruments to deal with the increased risks. Institutionalinvestors who are actively engaged in industrial and emergingmarkets need to hedge their risks from these cross border transactions.Agents in liberalized market economies who are exposed to volatilecommodity price and interest rate changes require appropriatehedging products to deal with them. And the economic expansionin emerging economies demands that corporations find betterways to manage financial and commodity risks. The instrumentsthat allow market participants to manage risk are known as derivativesbecause they represent contracts whose payoff at expirationis determined by the price of the underlying asset a currency,an interest rate, a commodity, or a stock. Derivatives are tradedin organized exchanges or over the counter by derivatives dealers.Since the mid-1980s the number of derivatives exchanges operatingin both industrial and emerging-market economies has increasedsubstantially. What benefits do these exchanges provide to investorsand to the home country? Are they a good idea? Emerging marketscan capture important benefits, including the ability to transferrisks, enhance public information, and lower transaction costs,but the success of a derivatives exchange depends on the soundnessof the foundations on which it is built, the structure thatis adopted, and the products that are traded.      

Issues with the communication and integrity of audit reports when financial reporting shifts to an information-centric paradigm

A core application of XBRL is to facilitate the flow of tagged financial statements and annual reports, from companies and other entities directly to the databases, web sites, and computers of regulators, stakeholders and other information consumers. Increasingly, XBRL provides the technological foundation for the communication of financial information where there is independent assurance. This XBRL-based assurance may be on the financial statements (i.e., an electronically consumable form of today's standard PDF or HTML audit report) or focus on the quality of the XBRL exhibit (i.e., the instance document). Regardless of the type of XBRL assurance report, maintenance of the security and integrity of the instance document is paramount. This conceptual paper identifies and discusses the communication, security challenges and relevant research issues when there is independent assurance on financial statements formatted in XBRL. Successful electronic communication of assurance to information consumers should clearly distinguish the responsibilities of management (i.e., the financial statements) and the auditor (i.e., the audit report). It is important to have an integrated approach where the assurance report, financial statements and other reports in which facts in the financial statements are incorporated are inextricably tied at the level of automated data consumption. Further, as much as possible, human interaction should be accommodated. The paper sets out a range of alternatives for maintenance of security on the assurance report.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Financial Education on Graduating Business Students’ Perceptions of Their Retirement Planning Familiarity,Motivation, and Preparedness

Today's multifaceted and dynamic financial environment requires a high level of individual financial literacy to ensure that sound financial behaviors are the norm. Unfortunately, many individuals have limited knowledge regarding financial issues and are ill prepared to make sound financial choices. The purpose of this article was to benchmark and then determine if graduating business students’ perception of their retirement planning familiarity, motivation, and preparedness improved after taking a semester‐long course in Personal Risk Management and Insurance (PRMI). We discovered that business students were more financially literate than nonbusiness students and that business students’ familiarity with retirement plans and personal level of readiness to make retirement planning decisions improved significantly after taking the principles class. Specifically, we showed that only 15.8 percent and 42.3 percent of the nonbusiness and business control students, respectively, felt adequately prepared to make retirement decisions, while 82 percent of the business students who completed the PRMI class felt prepared. Ex post, graduating seniors who were exposed to coursework covering life‐cycle risks and options to treat those risks perceived that they are leaving college with a better ability to meet the financial challenges that await them. Last, we showed that significant differences existed in retirement plan and investment familiarity based on gender. Our findings provide support for including financial literacy as a general education requirement at colleges and universities.     

Internal control audits: Judges' perceptions of the credibility of the financial reporting process and likely auditor liability

This paper reports the results of a study in which fifty-seven sitting United States judges participated in a behavioral experiment to assess the perceived credibility of the financial reporting process and the legal risk auditors bear under conditions where they provide an internal control audit report (vs. no report) under two corporate governance environments. We find that participating judges believe internal control audits provide enhanced assurance that intentional misstatements do not exist and also serve to provide elevated protection to the public, but only under conditions of a strong corporate governance environment beyond current regulatory requirements. We also find that, after being informed of an undetected material fraud, judges who currently have high expectations of the auditing profession find auditors more liable when an internal control audit report has been issued (as compared to when no such report has been issued).