货币政策工具与中介目标选择：基于公开市场操作的研究

利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题。目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。以公开市场操作为对象,本文研究表明,公开市场操作和货币量之间确实存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的;导致利率和公开市场操作关系不确定的主要原因是IS曲线的斜率是不确定的。同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率是不稳定的,因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。     

Monetary policy and the yield curve in an emerging market: the Greek case

This paper explores the impact of monetary policy actions on the nominal term yield curve in the Greek money market. Essentially, the monetary transmission mechanism is under scrutiny in testing monetary policy effectiveness. We focus on the dynamic inter-relationship between the short-term monetary policy instrument (Overnight rate) and market rates across the term structure. The findings are in accordance with the fact that Expectations Hypothesis monetary policy actions have a significant impact on all market rates; however, the impact is decreasing monotonically with maturity of the interest rate.     

The unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank: Effectiveness and transmission analysis

Since the beginning of the financial crisis in summer 2007, the European Central Bank (ECB) has redirected traditional monetary policy, based on interest rates, to an unconventional monetary policy focused on the quantitative expansion of its balance sheet. In this context, the present paper aims to assess the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy instruments with regard to inflation and economic growth. To this end, the methodology is based on the estimation of a structural vector autoregressive model for the period 2007:Q1–2018:Q4, using four variables: EONIA, the total amount of assets on the ECB's balance sheet, the Eurozone inflation rate and the Eurozone economic growth rate. The results show a slight impact of the different balance sheet policies on inflation and economic activity behaviour, especially during the last year of the financial crisis. The robustness of these results is supported by the estimation of the same model replacing EONIA rates with shadow rates. Therefore, the results support the existence of monetary transmission for the period during which the unconventional monetary policy was developed as well as the effectiveness of the monetary policy adopted by the ECB in its commitment to price stability.     

利率政策与汇率政策协调搭配的文献综述

当前,我国经济已经进入了一个市场化与国际化的转型时期,在经济全球化背景下,利率政策和汇率政策在我国货币政策中的作用日益显著。我国很多学者在这一领域进行了积极的探索,部分成果实现了学术突破,但对于价格型货币政策即利率政策和汇率政策的综合研究还远远不够丰富和深入。我国应进一步深入研究利率政策和汇率政策的交互作用下对中国宏观经济的影响程度,这种影响是否与货币当局的预期相吻合;包含汇率政策在内的扩展的泰勒规则在中国经济的适应性;研究价格型货币政策工具之间的协调机制。通过梳理利率与汇率的关系、利率政策与汇率政策有效搭配的相关理论,可以更好地为新时期我国利率政策和汇率政策的协调搭配提供参考。     

Niedrige Zinsen — gesamtwirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen

Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of defl ation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe’s problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.     

Monetary policy,inequality and political instability

Voters in the industrialised countries are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction by dissenting from the established political parties and candidates. Based on the concepts of justice by Hayek, Rawls and Buchanan, we argue that the growing dissatisfaction is rooted in the asymmetric pattern of monetary policies since the mid‐1980s for two reasons. First, the structurally declining interest rates and the unconventional monetary policy measures have granted privileges to specific groups. Second, the increasingly expansionary monetary policies have negative growth effects, which have reduced the scope for compensation of the ones excluded from the privileges. As a result, the acceptance of the prevailing economic and political order is undermined and political instability increases.     

The short run efficacy of monetary policy under floating exchange rates reconsidered

This paper disputes the argument that the short-run effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing domestic output under floating rates is necessarily reduced if elasticities of demand for imports and exports with respect to the current exchange rate are low and capital flows depend on the exchange rate. It is shown that the relative efficacy of monetary changes is determined by the interest rate elasticity of international interest payments and receipts and the effect of exchange rate variations on the demand for money in addition to the exchange rate elasticities of trade and capital flows.     

我国货币政策传导机制现状及疏通对策研究——基于稳健货币政策背景

在稳健货币政策背景下,我国货币政策传导机制仍然存在传导渠道效率评判标准缺失、传导机制受阻后货币政策效率偏低、金融市场欠发达对传导渠道疏通能力较低等问题。应采取完善货币政策框架和利率传导渠道、强化货币政策工具定价和结构性调节功能、发展资本市场以拓展融资渠道、强化金融监管保持货币政策独立性等措施,努力疏通我国货币政策传导机制。     

美联储量化宽松货币政策正常化与人民币汇率变动——基于时变参数向量自相关模型的研究

2015年后,随着量化宽松货币政策正常化和人民币汇率进入双向波动新常态,美国货币政策对人民币汇率的外溢效应日益显著。通过构建时变参数向量自相关模型对2008-2018年美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施和退出对人民币汇率的溢出效应进行研究,结果表明：美联储加息在滞后一季度作用人民币兑美元先升值后贬值,加息通过中美利差、产出差、货币供给之差分别作用于人民币兑美元贬值、升值和升值,利差渠道是主要作用渠道;美联储资产负债表扩张和缩减分别带来人民币汇率的升值和贬值,且扩张的升值影响大于缩减的贬值影响;美联储资产负债表和利率政策有一定替代性,替代关系存在明显的结构效应;美联储资产负债表的扩张和缩减分别带来中国银行间市场利率的下降和回升,两国利率表现出一定联动性。     

The impact of monetary policy on oil price persistence: An application of the smooth regime-switching model

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes.     

Non-traded goods and optimal trade policy in a cash-in-advance economy

This paper develops a standard trade model of a small open monetary economy with two traded and one non-traded goods. Money is introduced through a generalized cash-in-advance constraint where the share of goods purchases that must be made using cash, varies across sectors. We find that free trade may be harmful so that alternative policy instruments may be considered to improve welfare. In addition, we study and compare the optimal tariff formula and the optimal consumption tax structure. In the presence of a monetary distortion of the non-traded good, a consumption tax may not Pareto dominate a tariff although the latter bears an additional production burden. This corroborates the theory of second best.     

股票市场开放条件下的货币政策效应分析

本文探讨了在股票市场开放条件下,股票市场的国际资本流动对货币政策的影响。在开放经济条件下,对在东道国投资的国际投资者来说,如果股票投资比债券投资更重要,那么货币政策比财政政策相对有效的观点难以成立。扩张性货币政策使国内利率下降,但利率下降会增加股票投资的预期收益,这会吸引国际资本流入,从而导致本币升值,因而扩张性货币政策对产出的净影响是不确定的。浮动汇率体制有利于减缓外部冲击。     

Emerging market corporate bond yields and monetary policy

I examine spillover of monetary policy on corporate bond yields. Emerging market corporate bond yields are positively associated with the federal funds rate. However, this positive relation is transmitted through the domestic policy rate. If domestic policy rates are held constant, the spillover of US monetary policy on corporate bond yields diminishes. This suggests that domestic policymakers face a tradeoff: if they leave their policy rate unchanged when the Fed hikes, this may have benign consequences for corporate bond yields. However, a higher US policy rate may lead to exchange rate depreciation for emerging market currencies and thus elevated debt burdens for their US dollar debtors. Alternatively, if the Fed hikes and policymakers follow suit, funding conditions for corporates worsen through higher yields.     

Power or Economic Law? Fresh Reflections on ECB Policy

Conventional wisdom says that central banks determine interest rate levels. After all, monetary policy set by central banks directly influences money market conditions. But these conditions are also shaped by other actors such as government, manufacturing businesses, commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions, as well as by monetary developments abroad. In this paper, it is argued that market forces, such as a global saving glut, play a more important role in setting interest rates than central banks.     

PORTFOLIOS WITH RESERVE COEFFICIENT

This article offers an attempt at defining and computing the coherence of, and substitution among, the standard instruments of monetary policy, viz. open market policy, rate of interest, and reserve coefficient. A number of separation theorems are proved and a unit-elasticity rule derived for the tradeoff between the reserve coefficient and the premium on risky assets. Finally, for any given interest rate we select an optimal portfolio by the maximal-caution criterion, which minimizes the probability of failure.     

我国货币政策调控对产出和通胀影响的水平效应和波动率效应研究——基于VAR模型和局部投影模型冲击反应函数的实证分析

在“三重压力”下，我国货币政策调控要实现“稳增长”和“防通胀”在水平值和波动率上的“双重稳定”,既要保持适度经济增速，又要防止通货膨胀快速上升，还要防止产出和通胀波动形成的经济风险。为此，文章使用了局部投影方法和VAR模型方法计算了数量型和价格型货币政策的冲击反应函数，以此刻画货币政策对产出增长率和通货膨胀率的水平值和波动率的动态效应。实证结果表明，数量型货币政策对经济增长率和通货膨胀率均具有水平值上的显著正向效应，同时具有降低产出波动而提升通胀波动的冲击效应；价格型货币政策也对经济增长率和通货膨胀率具有显著正向效应，同时具有降低产出波动率和通胀波动率的双重稳定功能。因此，当前货币政策操作仍然要以价格型货币政策为主，以此实现货币政策逆周期和跨周期调控功能。     

On the Link Between Exchange‐rate Regimes,Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Small European Countries, 1979–2000

We investigate international monetary‐policy transmission under different exchange‐rate and capital‐account regimes in eleven small, open economies during the 1980s and 1990s. We find no systematic link between ex‐post monetary‐policy autonomy and exchange‐rate regimes. Capital controls appear to have provided a degree of temporal insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks, though not strict autonomy. The results are consistent both with short‐term autonomy for small countries even under fixed exchange rates and an open capital account, and with long‐term dependence under flexible exchange rates and an independent stability target. Results also indicate that euro‐area market interest rates are significantly more responsive to the development of the corresponding US rate than were the previous national rates.     

Monetary policy,exchange rate fluctuation,and herding behavior in the stock market

Interest rate and exchange rate are two important macroeconomic variables that exert considerable effects on the stock market. In this study, we investigate whether variations in interest and exchange rates induce herding behavior in the Chinese stock market. Empirical results indicate that interest rate increase and Chinese currency (CNY) depreciation will induce herding and this phenomenon is mainly manifested in down markets. Moreover, the herding level of the highest idiosyncratic volatility quintile portfolio is twice that of the lowest quintile portfolio which we consider evidence of intentional herding. This result is consistent with those of previous studies, which report that retail investors prefer and overweigh lottery-type stocks. Finally, we investigate the effects of monetary policy announcements and extreme exchange rate volatility on herding because these events elicit considerable public attention and may trigger collective behavior in the aggregate market.     

Monetary policy and U.S. long-term interest rates: How close are the linkages?

The effect of monetary policy on long-term interest rates has been a question of interest in recent years. A number of papers, relying on single-equation estimation techniques, have presented evidence that long-term interest rates exhibit sizable and significant responses to unanticipated changes in the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate. This paper examines these findings in light of conflicting findings from VAR studies, which indicate negligible effects of innovations in the federal funds rate on long-term rates. To address the issue we use a single-equation approach where unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate are measured as residuals from policy reaction functions. We also estimate VAR specifications, which incorporate information about the timing of changes in the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate. Our single-equation estimates provide evidence of strong responses of long rates to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate both for the Greenspan period and for a longer period back to the mid-1960s. It seems likely that estimated VARs for the post-1987 years are less successful in isolating monetary policy surprises than was the case for earlier years.     

Climate policy and interest Groups—A Public choice analysis

Climate policy is particularly prone to the activities of interest groups. How have these shaped the development of policy targets and instruments?