中国居民储蓄行为不确定性与外汇储备——在Ramsay模型下对中国经济失衡的微观分析

基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实,本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型,论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的临界值时,居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动,而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的"高储蓄之谜",也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备,从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测,在其他条件保持不变的情况下,如果中国经济继续保持7%的增长率,则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此,本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

How does economic policy uncertainty affect cross-border M&A: Evidence from Chinese firms

Based on the data of Chinese cross-border mergers and acquisitions in 29 countries from 2008 to 2017, we adopt the index of world economic policy uncertainty constructed by Baker et al. (2016) to empirically test the impact of economic policy uncertainty triggered by financial crisis on the scale and performance of M&A behavior. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Economic policy uncertainty in host country can significantly reduce the scale of cross-border M&A of Chinese enterprises. (2) The negative impact of economic policy uncertainty is more evident in non-state-owned enterprises. (3) Economic policy uncertainty in the host country has a U-shaped influence on short-term M&A performance of enterprises; (4) Economic policy uncertainty in host country has a negative impact on mid-term M&A performance of enterprises. Our results can provide reference for enterprise investment and home country policy.     

Host country’s environmental uncertainty,technological capability,and foreign market entry mode: Evidence from high-end equipment manufacturing MNEs in emerging markets

The paper investigates the impact of the host country’s environmental uncertainty on the choice of entry mode and also discusses the moderating role of technological heterogeneity in this relationship. Based on the resource-based view and institutional theory framework, we first analyze the investment motivation of emerging industries in emerging markets and evaluate the environmental uncertainty from two dimensions, including the institutional environment (country level) and industry environment (market level). Then, the theoretical predictions are empirically tested using 173 overseas investment events in China’s high-end equipment sector from 2010-2018. Our findings suggest that when the uncertainty of the industry environment is low, no matter how uncertain is the institutional environment, most firms tend to choose a cooperative strategy. Once the industry environment indicators become turbulent, a high degree of institutional environment uncertainty causes firms to evade trade barriers by choosing a new plant. Alternatively, choosing a relatively conservative mode, such as export. Meanwhile, technological capability weakens the influence of environmental uncertainty on entry mode.     

Pro-market institutions and outward FDI of emerging market firms: An institutional arbitrage logic

We offer new theory and evidence regarding the effects of pro-market institutions on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) of emerging market firms (EMFs). Drawing on the logic of institutional arbitrage, we integrate the escapism and exploitation mechanisms of EMF internationalization into a unified theoretical context. We propose an inverted U-shaped relationship between host market-supporting institutions (MSI) and the investment scale of an EMF’s FDI project in the country, showing an escape-driven upward slope for low-to-medium MSI levels and an exploitation-driven downward slope for medium-to-high MSI levels. We supplement this main argument with two boundary conditions: the alleviating effect of home market liberalization (HML) and the strengthening effect of home government subsidies (HGS), demonstrating the coexistence and variation of pro- and anti- market institutions in an emerging market. Using information on 1,450 FDI projects conducted by 288 Chinese listed firms in 116 host countries, we obtain supportive evidence for the predicted relationships between the three institutional forces. This study enriches the literatures on institutional arbitrage and pro-market institutions with evidence from EMFs.     

The interplay between home and host country institutions in an emerging market context: Private equity in Latin America

This study examines how the interplay between home and host country regulatory institutions affects the investment strategy of private equity (PE) firms in an emerging market context. To answer this question, we consider three different mechanisms: (1) the institutional hazard avoidance effect, (2) the institutional escapism effect, and (3) the dysfunctional institutions effect. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we argue that regulatory institutional differences between home and host countries can sometimes have a positive rather than a negative effect on investment likelihood. Our findings show that when a host emerging market has a strong regulatory institutional system relative to other emerging markets, it is more likely that this country will attract PE investments from firms based in home countries with very strong and very weak institutional systems. The empirical analyses, based on a polynomial specification and a dataset covering more than 300 PE firms that made close to 1500 investment transactions in Latin America during 1996–2011, are consistent with our main theoretical arguments.     

Extending Dunning's Investment Development Path: The role of home country institutional determinants in explaining outward foreign direct investment

Recent years have seen an increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from emerging markets and post-communist economies alike. Given the specific institutional fabric of these countries, the question is whether mainstream theory can explain the drivers of foreign direct investment outflows or whether new theories are needed to explain this phenomenon. This paper aims to investigate the home country determinants of OFDI from post-communist economies. We augment the Investment Development Path (IDP) with explanations derived from institutional theory and explain the effects of home country institutional factors on the level of OFDI. We test our hypotheses using random effects estimations on a comprehensive panel dataset comprising of OFDI from 20 Central- and Eastern European countries. Our results support the IDP's main propositions but also highlight the importance of accounting for home country institutional factors when investigating the determinants of OFDI. In particular, we find that the inclusion of institutional variables increases the explanatory power of our models and that competition policy and overall institutional reforms play a crucial role in explaining OFDI from CEE countries with important implications for FDI theory.     

Dynamics of FII flows and stock market returns in a major developing country: How does economic uncertainty matter?

We apply the wavelet coherency and phase difference methodology to explore the nature of the relationship and the direction of causality between foreign institutional investment (FII) flows and stock market returns across time and frequency domain for the fast-growing Indian economy. Since both variables are affected by economic uncertainty, we have estimated the partial wavelet coherency and the phase difference to discern the impact of economic uncertainty on the dynamic relationship and causality between those variables. Both the FII flows and the stock market return move together during the periods of the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis without any causality in the short run, but the stock market leads the FII inflows in the long run. However, in the bull market the stock market Granger causes the FII inflows both in the short run and in the long run. Nonetheless, economic uncertainty drives the co-movement and also masks the causality effect between those two variables. Thus, the results require policymakers to set out a transparent economic environment to reap the benefits of FII flows. As far as the FII outflows are concerned, profit booking and economic uncertainty drive the relationship and the causality in the short run. Hence, policymakers and portfolio managers should be concerned about FII outflows in the long run, while in the short run, it is a normal trading activity.     

经济政策不确定性对我国股市波动的影响——基于2007—2019年上证指数的实证分析

股票市场的波动受到宏观经济政策的影响。本文研究2007年1月—2019年10月的月度数据,其结论如下:(1)主效应的经济政策不确定性越高,我国股市波动率越低;(2)在惯性因素上我国股市波动率会显著受到滞后波动率的影响;(3)在结构性断点上我国股市波动率在2008年金融危机和2010年融资融券交易处存在结构性断点;(4)在交互效应上2010年融资融券交易制度的建立降低了股市波动率对于经济政策不确定性的敏感程度。本文的研究结论拓展了研究边界,为宏观政策制定及资本市场投资提供了思路参考。     

基于金融发展视角下的FDI与经济增长研究综述

众多的决策者与学者相信外商直接投资（FDI）有利于促进东道国的经济增长。但是实证研究结果却表明,FDI的经济增长效应在许多发展中国家却并不明确,主要原因在于FDI效应受到东道国自身环境和条件（即吸收能力）的制约。东道国的金融发展主要通过人力资本效应、技术创新效应、产业关联效应以及市场环境优化效应等机制对FDI与经济增长的关系产生影响。金融发展已经成为东道国FDI效应有效发挥的核心要素。也是未来FDI研究的一个重要的新方向。     

Japanese foreign direct investment in India: An institutional theory approach

This article charts the history of Japanese corporate engagement with India. While there has been a profound historic relationship between the two nations, economic interaction is commonly portrayed in the context of geographical and psychic distance. As institutions set the rules of corporate engagement, we analyse the evolving regulatory and policy regime for foreign direct investment (FDI) in post-independence India and the corporate strategies of Japanese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in response to this institutional change. Using a firm-level dataset we show that the trajectory of Japanese investment in India broadly follows that of other nationalities of foreign firms. Differentiated responses to institutional changes are detected by industry. Our analysis reveals important instances of Japanese firm flexibility and pragmatism vis-à-vis the rapidly growing Indian market.     

制度距离与外商直接投资--一项基于中国的经验研究

利用2000-2003年间69个投资国和地区的国别资料,本文分析了制度上的差异与作为东道国的中国吸引外商直接投资之间的关系.研究结果表明:文化制度差异越大,投资国在中国的直接投资越少;包括法律完善程度和私有财产保护程度在内的法律制度差异越大,投资国在中国的直接投资越少;贸易政策、货币政策、金融管制政策等宏观经济制度差异越大,投资国在中国的直接投资越少;政府干预程度、工资控制程度和市场规范程度等微观经济制度差异越大,投资国在中国的直接投资越少.在上述发现的基础上,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

Legal distance and entrepreneurial orientation of foreign subsidiaries: Evidence from Southeast Asia

How will variation in legal distance influence a foreign subsidiary's propensity to engage in entrepreneurially orientated initiatives within the context of an emerging market environment? We answer this question by combining elements of institutional theory to suggest that legal distance between a foreign subsidiary's parent home and host country, as well as managerial perceptions of deficiencies in the host country legal service sector, will influence EO initiatives. By analyzing 352 multinational enterprise foreign subsidiaries operating in the Philippines and Thailand our results indicate the complexity of these relationships in that there is a curvilinear (U-shaped) relationship concerning the legal distance between a foreign subsidiary's parent home and host country and its propensity to engage in EO initiatives. Our findings also suggest that this curvilinear relationship will strengthen as managerial perceptions of host country legal deficiencies increase, particularly when the parent possess an in-house legal affairs department. Following these insights, we discuss theoretical implications and future research opportunities.     

Regional economic integration and multinational firm strategies

This paper analyzes the effects of regional economic integrations on investment patterns among multinational firms. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms decide on the optimal foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies for serving trade-integrated regions consisting of asymmetric countries: developed and developing nations. Following reduced trade costs within the trade-integrated region, our model shows that integrating into a regional economic zone affects firms with relatively low productivity levels to enter developing nation within the region via complex FDI – a firm activity of engaging in multiple types of FDI. Specifically, we show that depending on the size of the region respective to the home country, complex FDI involves different investment patterns. Using Korean firm- and plant-level data, we specify a binary choice model to link firms’ choice of FDI strategies with their productivity levels and trade-integrated regions. Our empirical results are consistent with the theoretical implications.     

“一带一路”东道国制度环境与中国企业对外直接绩效研究

利用2006—2017年中国上市公司在“一带一路”沿线国家的560例OFDI事件为研究样本,实证探究了“一带一路”东道国制度环境对中国企业OFDI绩效的影响,并基于竞争优势视角进一步考察了境外经贸合作区、母国特定优势以及企业年龄的调节效应。研究发现：“一带一路”东道国制度环境在一定程度上会对中国企业OFDI绩效的提升产生负面影响,境外经贸合作区、母国特定优势和企业年龄对上述负面效应具有弱化作用,竞争优势效应在国有与民营企业之间呈现出异质性。研究结论将为中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家开展高质量海外投资提供参考借鉴。     

Institutional determinants of ownership stake in cross-border acquisitions in Africa: The moderating role of geographic distance

We look at how emerging markets' institutional features affect ownership stake in cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) within Africa. Particularly, we show that the presence of shared colonial history between the home and host country and the extent of fractionalization distance and formal institutional distance influence the acquiring firm's decision regarding its ownership stake in the target. Moreover, we show that geographic distance between the home and host country, by augmenting uncertainty faced by acquiring firms, moderates the relationship between these institutional features and ownership stake. We test our hypotheses in a sample of 341 intra-Africa CBAs from 2001 to 2016. Generally, we find that greater ex ante uncertainty and ex post costs increase ownership stake. Specifically, greater geographic distance strengthens the positive relationship between shared colonial history and ownership stake and reverses the negative relationship between formal institutional distance and ownership stake. As for fractionalization distance, the relationship is more nuanced and needs to be further studied. We contribute to advance research on south–south CBAs in general, particularly within Africa, as well as to extend hostage theory in foreign market entry strategies in and from emerging markets.     

Home country institutional environments and foreign expansion of emerging market firms

We propose that home country institutional environment shapes emerging market firms’ foreign expansion. We argue that better-developed home country institutional environment promotes emerging market firms’ expansion to foreign markets more advanced than the home country, while institutional instability in the home country reduces this propensity. We further hypothesize that the effects of home country institutional environment are contingent on firm-specific government ownership. Data on the foreign expansion of 921 Chinese firms in the period of 1996–2000 provide strong support for the effects of home country's institutional development and institutional instability. We also find that a high degree of government ownership weakens the positive effect of home country's institutional development on emerging market firms’ propensity to expansion to more advanced markets.     

The accelerating effect of institutional environment unfamiliarity on subsidiary portfolio expansion in a new host country

In forming external networks in a host country, a foreign subsidiary acquires knowledge which contributes to the parent’s stock of country-specific knowledge and capabilities. Building on this notion, we argue that an MNE unfamiliar with the institutional environment of a newly entered foreign country has an incentive to expand its subsidiary portfolio in that country at a higher rate. We test this using a longitudinal dataset of German public firms which made investments into 2220 new host countries between 1985 and 2015. We find that unfamiliarity accelerates subsidiary portfolio expansion most when the initial investment is a wholly-owned subsidiary, and that the effect becomes weaker over time. Our study contributes to the internationalization process literature by showing that being unfamiliar with a host country is not necessarily an obstacle to subsidiary portfolio expansion – indeed it can accelerate it.     

Strategic and institutional effects on foreign IPO performance: Examining the impact of country of origin,corporate governance,and host country effects

Integrating signaling and institutional perspectives, we develop and test hypotheses relating institutions and corporate governance to foreign IPO success. Our investigation highlights the importance of three important drivers of foreign IPO success: home country legal institutions, corporate governance, and host capital market choice. This research demonstrates that board independence and country of origin effects are powerful signals. However, these factors do not have a universal impact on foreign IPO success. Instead, the value of home country institutions along with corporate governance signals are contingent upon the institutional environment in which international entrepreneurs choose to seek capital resources.     

Host country risk and foreign ownership strategy: Meta-analysis and theory on the moderating role of home country institutions

Empirical evidence for the relationship between host country risk and a firm’s ownership level in its foreign entry strategy is inconclusive. We revisit this relationship by integrating the internalisation logic with an institution-based view to examine the moderating effects of formal and informal institutions in the home country. By meta-analysing 64 empirical studies involving 52,229 ownership decisions on foreign market entry, this study gives support to theoretical arguments that the focal relationship is positively moderated by institutional constraints on policymakers and risk-taking tendencies in the home country but is negatively moderated by the joint effect of these two institutional factors. These findings shed new light on the literature of host country risk and foreign ownership strategy. Besides describing the implications of the findings for theory and practice, we discuss the agenda for future theory development in international business.     

经济政策不确定性会影响股票流动性吗？——基于中国上市公司的经验证据

以2007-2017年中国A股上市公司为研究对象，考察经济政策不确定性对股票流动性的影响。实证结果表明，经济政策不确定性的提高会导致股票流动性下降，分析师跟踪会对经济政策不确定性和股票流动性产生影响，能有效抑制经济政策不确定性所带来的股票流动性的下降。进一步研究发现，相较于机构投资者持股比例高的企业，机构投资者持股比例低的企业分析师跟踪对经济政策不确定性与股票流动性的正向调节作用更显著。研究一方面丰富了经济政策不确定性和股票流动性的研究文献；另一方面为如何提高股票流动性也提供了一定的理论依据和经验证据。