Explainable artificial intelligence modeling to forecast bitcoin prices

Forecasting cryptocurrency behaviour is an increasingly important issue for investors. However, proposed analytical approaches typically suffer from a lack of explanatory power. In response, we propose for cryptocurrency pricing an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework, including a new feature selection method integrated with a game-theory-based SHapley Additive exPlanations approach and an explainable forecasting framework. This new approach, extendable to other uses, improves both forecasting and model generalizability and interpretability. We demonstrate that XAI modeling is capable of predicting cryptocurrency prices during the recent cryptocurrency downturn identified as associated in part with the Russian-Ukraine war. Modeling reveals the critical inflection points of the daily financial and macroeconomic determinants of the transitions between low and high daily prices. We contribute to financial operating systems research and practice by introducing XAI techniques to enhance the transparency and interpretability of machine learning applications and to support various decision-making processes.     

非审计业务对审计市场绩效的影响——基于会计师事务所业务结构的角度

以审计质量和审计收费作为审计市场绩效的衡量指标,从会计师事务所业务结构角度来考察我国注册会计师行业拓展非审计业务对审计市场所带来的影响。实证检验发现,相对于其他事务所而言,非审计业务规模越大和当年非审计业务规模较上年扩大的事务所,其审计质量越好,审计收费也越高。这说明在目前审计服务市场容量有限,竞争过于激烈的环境下,拓展非审计业务有利于增强审计独立性和提高审计收费,是改善行业执业环境的一个重要途径。     

Some Economics of Audit Market Reform

The purpose of audit market reforms since 2001 is to restore public confidence in the institution of auditing based on two considerations: (1) ensuring audit quality; and (2) controlling the ‘adverse effect of competition’ in audit supply. Market reforms for audit quality are delivered through a package of prescribed actions motivated by an analytical relationship between audit quality and its possible determinants: (1) limiting audit tenure through a combination of mandatory firm rotation, partner rotation and re‐tendering; (2) limiting provision of non‐audit services (NAS) by the incumbent auditor; and (3) joint auditing and empowering the audit committee to enhance audit quality. This paper examines the competing independence hypothesis and expertise hypothesis that produce ambiguous theoretical relationships for audit quality–audit tenure and the independence‐provision of NAS. We then review whether the empirical literature resolves these conundrums. We also review the usefulness of joint auditing and empowering the audit committee to improve audit quality in the context of audit market reform.     

Predicting accounting fraud using imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers – evidence from China

The current research aims to launch effective accounting fraud detection models using imbalanced ensemble learning algorithms for China A-Share listed firms. Based on a sample of 33,544 Chinese firm-year instances from 1998 to 2017, this research respectively established one logistic regression and four ensemble learning classifiers (AdaBoost, XGBoost, CUSBoost, and RUSBoost) by 12 financial ratios and 28 raw financial data. Additionally, we divided the sample into the train and test observations to evaluate the classifiers' out-of-sample performance. In detail, we applied two metrics, namely, Area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) and Area under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPR), to evaluate classifiers' discriminability. In the supplement test, this study put forward an algebraic fused model on the basis of the four ensemble learning classifiers and introduced the sliding window technique. The empirical results showed that the ensemble learning classifiers can detect accounting fraud for the imbalanced China A-listed firms far more effectively than the logistic regression model. Moreover, imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers (CUSBoost and RUSBoost) effectively performed better than the common ensemble learning models (AdaBoost and XGBoost) in average. The algebraic fused model in the supplement test also obtained the highest average AUC and AUPR among all the employed algorithms. Our results offer firm support for the potential role of Machine Learning (ML)-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches in reliably predicting accounting fraud with high accuracy. Similarly, for the Chinese settings, our ML-based AI offers utmost advantage in forecasting accounting fraud. Finally, this paper fills the research gap on the applications of imbalanced ensemble learning in accounting fraud detection for Chinese listed firms.     

Prediction and interpretation of daily NFT and DeFi prices dynamics: Inspection through ensemble machine learning & XAI

Non Fungible Tokens (NFT) and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) assets have seen a growing media coverage and garnered considerable investor traction despite being classified as a niche in the digital financial sector. The lack of substantial research to demystify the dynamics of NFT and DeFi coins motivates the scrupulous analysis of the said sector. This work aims to critically delve into the evolutionary pattern of the NFTs and DeFis for performing predictive analytics of the same during the COVID-19 regime. The multivariate framework comprises the systematic inclusion of explanatory features embodying technical indicators, key macroeconomic indicators, and constructs linked to media hype and sentiment pertinent to the pandemic, nonlinear feature engineering, and ensemble machine learning. Isometric Mapping (ISOMAP) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) techniques are conjugated with Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) and Random Forest (RF) for enabling the predictive analysis. The predictive performance rationalizes the frameworks' capacity to accurately predict the prices of the majority of the NFT and DeFi coins during the ongoing financial distress period. Additionally, Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methodologies are used to comprehend the nature of the impact of the explanatory variables. Findings suggest that the daily movement of the NFTs and DeFi highly depends on their past historical movement.     

Negotiating the credibility of performance auditing

This paper reports the results of a longitudinal field study of a performance audit which used in-depth interviews and observation to examine the process by which auditees and auditors in the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) negotiated their relationship. The findings enhance understanding of auditee reactions to both the practice of performance auditing and the auditors themselves and the impact that these have on the credibility of performance auditing. Using the lens of Oliver's typology of strategic responses, the study confirmed the prevalence of auditee responses to performance auditing by the ANAO which ranged from co-operative acquiescence and co-operation to confrontational defiance. The paper addresses recent and ongoing calls for more studies of public sector auditing in action to deepen our understanding of the responses or manoeuvring of auditors and auditees during the process of performance auditing. A key contribution of the paper is confirmation that performance auditing continues to be a contested activity and its credibility in practice remains uncertain. The empirical (and historical) evidence suggests that audits that are perceived as especially politically sensitive can provoke active forms of resistance, including avoidance and defiance.     

Government auditing in China: Problems and reform

This paper evaluates the current government auditing system in China and the proposal to move it from the control of the executive body (the State Council) to the control of the legislature (the National People's Congress). Interviews with government auditors, government and people's congress officials, and leading academics identify the problems caused by lack of audit independence. Although audit independence can be increased by moving the control of government auditing to the legislature, many of our interviewees considered such a move as infeasible in the current political climate. To smooth the reform toward a legislature-led audit system, we propose a “Dual-Track System” in which the different audit responsibilities currently undertaken by the government auditing system are separated. The responsibility for auditing the use and control of fiscal budgets by the central and regional governments would be under the control of the legislature as this area of government auditing has a clear need for audit independence. Other audit functions including economic responsibility auditing, special purpose funds auditing, financial service auditing and state-owned enterprise auditing would remain under the control of the government. This dual track approach would, we argue, be a politically acceptable compromise as it would strengthen audit independence where it is most needed but also enable the government to maintain strong economic control.     

A Rejoinder to Commentaries on ‘Integrated Reporting: A Review of Developments and their Implications for the Accounting Curriculum’

This auditing case study focuses on a company presenting significant audit risk for an incoming audit firm. By presenting a variety of audit risks, hence audit implications, the case demonstrates the holistic approach to audit required in order to avoid an inappropriate audit opinion. The case is aimed at undergraduate students of auditing in the final year of their studies and students of the ACCA Paper 6 or equivalent. The case provides an efficient and original vehicle for instruction in auditing and can be used to complement other teaching aids.     

An approach to learning risk-based auditing

This paper presents a discussion of a risk-based auditing project that can be used in an undergraduate or graduate auditing course. The project gives students an opportunity to apply the concepts learned in their auditing class about risk-based auditing to a real world company. A number of companies are selected from a particular industry. Each student team is assigned a company and performs business risk analysis related to the entity and its environment using a structured questionnaire (template). The students are required to perform analytical procedures (ratio analysis) on the company and compare it to industry data or a competitor. Student evaluations of the project indicate that it helped them apply their audit knowledge, and was relevant to the auditing class.     

Ethical impact of artificial intelligence in managerial accounting

Recent advances in technology have accelerated digitalization and intelligence in modern business. Particularly, the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in managerial accounting is expected to accurately measure corporate performance, provide intelligent analyses, and predict the future of a company. However, along with the benefits, ethical concerns of using AI also arise, such as deprofessionalization, data breach, and isolation among accountants. This paper explores the ethical impact of AI in managerial accounting at both pre- and post-adoption stages. Based on 47 interviews conducted with companies, an AI system vendor, and regulators, we found that data security, privacy, and misuse; accountability; accessibility; benefits and challenges; and transparency and trust of AI are among the most common ethical risks in the development and use of AI in managerial accounting. Unique ethical impacts on four types of stakeholders: developers, managers in charge of AI adoption, managerial accountants, and regulators, were also discovered.     

From inspection to auditing: Audit and markets as linked ecologies

This paper studies the roles that images and ideas of market creation played in the re-articulation of relations between government, audit expertise and professional organisation in post-Soviet Russia. It examines the change from state-led inspection to market-oriented auditing between 1985 and 2005, and analyses this in terms of the notion of “linked ecologies”. The paper queries the relationship between audit and neoliberal modes of governing. It argues that we should be careful not to see audit as an unproblematic expression of neoliberalism. Investigating the dynamics and conflicts accompanying attempts to establish auditing as a site for governmental reform, this paper examines the manifold ways in which the meaning of markets and the roles of auditing in them can be unsettled, reinvented and transformed. The paper analyses how auditing was made marketable, and investigates how projects of post-Soviet audit development came to be carried forward, shifted and changed through new “enterprising selves” and their newly founded audit and consulting firms. The paper concludes with a more general discussion of the implication of these findings for our understanding of the dynamics of professionalisation, and the changing of relations between politics and expertise.     

Frankenstein unbound : Towards a legal definition of artificial intelligence

The Frankenstein myth of creature turning on creator is centuries if not millenia old. But only recently under the impact of the cybernetic revolution has this fantasy entered the realm of the possible. This paper explores the legal ramifications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) with specific emphasis on “humanoid” criminality. Following a review of the actual (or theoretically proven) powers of artificially intelligent machine automata and the likely advances to be made in the future, four general categories of AI harmful behaviour are suggested, with illustrations from cybernetic research and science fiction. An analysis is made of the jurisprudential principles underlying several legal categories already existent, upon which future cybernetic law may be based.     

The Uses of Advanced Information Technology in Audit Planning

Expert systems, intelligent databases and other forms of advanced information technology are quickly becoming pervasive tools in accounting and auditing. All the major public accounting firms are either using such systems in their auditing practice or have them under development. This paper describes the use of several systems used for audit planning. These are divided into three functional areas: audit risk assessment, internal control evaluation and audit program development. The advantages and disadvantages of these systems as they relate to auditing are discussed.     

A Research Perspective: Artificial Intelligence,Management and Organizations

In recent years many companies have deployed Artificial Intelligence (AI), which has included neural networks, expert systems and voice-recognition systems. Yet managers and developers understand very little about how management and organizations affect or are affected by the technology. Using specific examples from practice and research, this paper discusses the interaction of AI, management and organizations, and describes some methodological approaches and theoretical models for studying those interactions. It provides direction for future research.     

Auditors' Liability, Vague Due Care, and Auditing Standards

This paper expands the set of previously considered liability rules to include a negligence liability rule with a vague specification of due care. Auditors who are negligent in conducting their audit are liable for losses that result from reliance on misstated financial statements. However, what constitutes negligence for auditors is not clearly specified in the law. Consequently, courts often resort to Generally Accepted Auditing Standards (GAAS) and Statements on Auditing Standards (SAS) as benchmarks for determining due care. A liability regime that consists of a vague negligence rule supports and amplifies the credibility of auditing standards. While auditing standards alleviate some of the vagueness that is inherent in the legal standard, they also form a lower bound on due care, since an audit of a quality that is lower than the quality that auditing standards require would be considered negligent. Thus, the vague specification of due care enables auditors to commit to audit quality as pronounced in auditing standards. This paper explores this link between professional standards and auditors' legal liability. It establishes that the commitment to auditing standards could not have been as credible as it is, if auditors' liability was determined based on the strict liability rule, or based on a negligence rule with a clearly specified due care, since under these two liability rules courts would not need to refer to auditing standards to establish fault. The paper also demonstrates that a legal regime where audit standards are used as a benchmark to evaluate negligence is not the same as a legal regime where due care is defined clearly. Therefore, previous studies that assumed a negligence regime with clear due care may have overstated the effort level that is induced by legal liability.     

审计报告的不同解读

对审计职业来说,审计报告的标准化可减少审计成本和避免审计法律诉讼,还可约束恣意和为理性选择提供合理保障;而对社会公众来说,审计报告留下了太多职业保护的痕迹。审计报告如何权衡设计职业保护与社会公众利益间的关系,本文提出了三种建议。     

AE Briefings — Statement of Intent

This paper seeks to address the perceived failure of university teaching to foster critical understanding of audit practice and to identify a potential remedy. It contributes to the debate (Maltby, 2001, “Second thoughts about ‘Cases in Auditing’,” Accounting Education: an international journal, 10(4), 421–428) by investigating the double-faceted nature of auditing: as a sub-set of the academic discipline of accounting and as professional practice. Although case studies are helpful for students of auditing, they tend to be artificial, or at best, retrospective. This paper introduces a different type of case study for audit education using corporate failure stories from the media as an example, proposing and explaining the notion of the ‘living case’ in order to foster critical appraisal of audit practice. It contributes to the literature on audit education by describing how this different type of case can address both the technical activities and the social practice of audit through Kolb's (1984, Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall) experiential learning theory and thus concludes that there is a place for the practical nature of auditing in academic study, in order to fully appreciate the social aspects.     

Big Data and changes in audit technology: contemplating a research agenda

This study explores the most recent episode in the evolution of audit technology, namely the incorporation of Big Data and Data Analytics (BDA) into audit firm approaches. Drawing on 22 interviews with individuals with significant experience in developing, implementing or assessing the impact of BDA in auditing, together with publicly available documents on BDA published within the audit field, the paper provides a holistic overview of BDA-related changes in audit practice. In particular, the paper focuses on three key aspects, namely the impact of BDA on the nature of the relationship between auditors and their clients; the consequences of the technology for the conduct of audit engagements and the common challenges associated with embedding BDA in the audit context. The study’s empirical findings are then used to establish an agenda of areas suitable for further research on the topic. The study is one of the first empirical accounts providing a perspective on the rise of BDA in auditing.     

The association between municipal disclosure practices and audit quality

This study examines the impact of two proxies for audit quality on a model of public sector disclosure for a sample of municipal governments. I argue that more complete disclosures enhance the reputation of an independent auditing firm and that independent auditors, seeking to maintain a reputation of higher quality, positively influence the level of financial disclosures appearing in their clients' financial statements.Specifically, a variable indicating the presence of a (then) Big Eight auditor and regression residuals from a model of audit fees were used as surrogates of audit quality. These were included in a model designed to explain variation in an index representing financial disclosures required under generally accepted accounting principles for local governments. The results provide evidence in support of the hypothesized relationship between audit quality and disclosure.