Government Credit,a Double‐Edged Sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank

Using proprietary data from the China Development Bank (CDB), this paper examines the effects of government credit on firm activities. Tracing the effects of government credit across different levels of the supply chain, I find that CDB industrial loans to state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) crowd out private firms in the same industry but crowd in private firms in downstream industries. On average, a $1 increase in CDB SOE loans leads to a $0.20 decrease in private firms' assets. Moreover, CDB infrastructure loans crowd in private firms. I use exogenous timing of municipal politicians' turnover as an instrument for CDB credit flows.     

Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: Is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query “financial crisis”) contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers’ credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.     

The cultural affinity hypothesis and mortgage lending decisions

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the cultural affinity hypothesis put forth by Calomiris, et al. (1994) in the mortgage lending market. This hypothesis implies that white loan officers, because of a lack of familiarity with minority applicants, will rely more heavily on characteristics that can be observed at low cost (e.g., objective loan application measures) in evaluating the creditworthiness of minority applicants relative to white applicants. Using a cleansed sample of 1,991 loan applications drawn from data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the results of the analysis were consistent with the cultural affinity hypothesis. In particular, we found that marginal black and Hispanic applicants appeared to be held to higher quantitative standards on such objective factors as credit history and debt obligation ratios than were similarly situated marginal white applicants.     

我国商业银行绿色信贷发展方向与机遇

本文通过重点分析2011年前三季度我国所设CDM项目的地区、行业现状与分布特点,以及农业发展银行、工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、浦发银行、兴业银行等多家银行类金融机构开拓绿色信贷业务的优势与成效,揭示我国商业银行在"十二五"期间发展绿色信贷金融服务的方向与机遇。     

Does technological inclusion promote financial inclusion among SMEs? Evidence from South-East Asian (SEA) countries

This study investigates whether the use and ownership of information and technological amenities by SMEs enhance their access to external credits. The data on the website ownership of, and email usage by 6805 firms in the emerging South-East Asian (SEA) markets collected from the World Bank Group Enterprise Survey (WBES) micro-database served as our sample. We used a random-effect panel logistic regression model for the baseline data analysis. Our results show that the usage of ICT-based services contributes to access to external credit facilities by SMEs, enhancing their financial inclusion. Our findings suggest that policymakers should focus on improving technological infrastructure and amenities that help dissipate opacity and information asymmetry in supplying credit to SMEs in emerging markets.     

Bank and Nonbank Lenders and the Commercial Mortgage Market

This paper develops an equilibrium model of the commercial mortgage market that includes the sequence from commitment to origination and allows testing for differences by type of lender. From borrowers, loan demand is based on the income yield, capital gains, and expectations about return distributions. Lenders use prices such as mortgage rates and their distributions, and quantities in underwriting standards. There are separate equilibria in the markets for loan commitments and originations. Bank and nonbank lenders are not restricted to the same lending technology, nor to the weights placed on mortgage rates as opposed to underwriting standards. Empirical results for the United States commercial mortgage market indicate that banks use interest rates in allocating credit while nonbanks rely on underwriting standards, notably the loan-to-value ratio. A consequence is that nonbanks have a clientele incentive towards making low cap rate loans compensated by low loan-to-value ratios.     

Credit booms,banking crises,and the current account

A number of papers have shown that rapid growth in private sector credit is a strong predictor of a banking crisis. This paper will ask if credit growth is itself the cause of a crisis, or is it the combination of credit growth and external deficits? This paper estimates a probabilistic model to find the marginal effect of private sector credit growth on the probability of a banking crisis. The model contains an interaction term between credit growth and the level of the current account, so the marginal effect of private sector credit growth may itself be a function of the level of the current account. We find that the marginal effect of rising private sector debt levels depends on an economy's external position. When the current account is in balance, the marginal effect of an increase in debt is rather small. However, when the economy is running a sizable current account deficit, implying that any increase in the debt ratio is financed through foreign borrowing, this marginal effect is large.     

基于Logistic回归模型的个人小额贷款信用风险评估及应用

构建二分类 Logistic信用风险评估模型,运用光大银行某分行样本数据,评估商业银行互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险。结果显示：客户性别、学历、年龄、收入、职业、属地等因素对个人小额贷款信用风险影响显著。其中,年龄、收入、学历等与客户信用等级呈正向关系,女性信用风险显著低于男性,持有信用卡、存贷比越低的客户其信用等级越高;一、二线城市客户的履约率普遍高于县地级市客户的履约率。鉴此,商业银行应对互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险进行有效规避和分散。     

Investment and bank credit recovery after banking crises

In this paper, we aim to investigate (a) the dynamic adjustment of investment-to-GDP ratio and bank credit-to-GDP ratio following banking crisis episodes; (b) whether the adjustment of investment and bank credit ratios varies with several country and crisis characteristics. Based on a sample of 79 developed and emerging countries over the 1973–2010 period, our results suggest that in the aftermath of banking crises, investment ratio declines but swiftly recovers to its pre-crisis level within two to three years. Bank credit declines significantly and remains stagnated even in the medium run. In terms of country characteristics, we find that investment and bank credit ratios decline significantly more in advanced countries and countries with higher level of capital openness. In addition, investment ratio declines significantly more in countries with higher level of financial development. Finally, we split the banking crises episodes into two categories: those preceded by a domestic credit boom or a surge in net capital inflows, and those that were not preceded by such booms. We find that dynamic adjustment of investment and bank credit ratios differs substantially across the two groups. Existence of a credit boom or a surge in capital inflow in the run-up to the crisis intensifies the length and depth of the decline in investment and bank credit ratios. In fact, we find no statistically significant decline in investment following banking crises that were not preceded by a credit boom or a surge in capital inflows. These results imply that deleveraging is costly to the economy.     

中小企业供应链融资的风险度量--基于R银行交易数据的研究

本文以某城市商业银行开展汽车行业供应链融资数据为样本,运用信用计量模型（CreditMetrics）进行信贷资产组合的信用风险度量模拟,将供应链融资中涉及的主要风险和收益转化成整条供应链融资资产组合的在险价值,探讨城市商业银行运用该模型进行信贷风险量化管理的可行路径。     

External monitoring of private firms: A cross-country empirical analysis

There is limited research which focuses on the use of external monitoring by private companies, domestic or international. We use World Bank data to explore the factors that are associated with the probability of using external monitoring by private firms in emerging and developing countries. In this research, the service of external auditors is considered as a proxy for external monitoring. We tested our results both on the full sample (114 countries) and on 5 different income clusters based on World Bank economic development categorization. From our results, we conclude that there is not a single set of “universal” factors associated with firms' decision to engage external auditors. We observe that factors associated with external auditors, a proxy for monitoring, differ across the various categories of economic development. As a policy implication, there is a need for a voluntary adoption of a uniform set of standards for external monitoring and auditing in this area.     

Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q

How did deposit interest rate ceilings, an important feature of the U.S. regulatory regime until the mid-1980s, affect individual banks’ lending and the transmission of monetary policy to credit? I estimate the effect of deposit rate ceilings inscribed in Regulation Q on commercial banks’ credit growth using a historical bank level data set starting in 1959. Banks’ credit growth contracted sharply when legally fixed deposit rate ceilings were binding. Interaction terms with monetary policy suggest that the policy impact on bank level credit growth was non-linear and significantly larger when rate ceilings were in place. Bank size and capitalization mitigate these effects. At the bank level, short-term interest rates exceeding the legally fixed deposit rate ceilings identify policy induced credit supply shifts that disappeared with deposit rate deregulation and thus weakened the bank lending channel substantially since the early 1980s.     

基层人民银行受理征信投诉案例引发的思考——基于内蒙古乌兰察布市的案例分析

随着社会公众信用意识不断增强,中国人民银行及其分支机构受理的征信投诉业务量随之增加。以中国人民银行乌兰察布市中心支行受理征信投诉案例为出发点,总结当前征信投诉存在的问题:信息主体不具备正确的征信维权意识,受理投诉缺乏具体工作细则及指引,征信专业人员紧缺影响业务办理效率。据此,提出加强征信宣传教育、完善法律法规、强化征信信息安全管理、优化征信队伍建设的建议。     

农村信贷配给实证分析

信贷配给是制约我国农村信贷市场建设的重要因素,也阻碍了农村金融环境优化、影响了农村经济的良性发展。通过引入制度因子,量化信贷配给,构建了信贷配给宏观计量模型,对我国农村信贷配给状况进行实证检验,结果证明,利率和制度因子是造成我国农村信贷配给的两大因子。应合理调控利率、推进深化改革、加大三农扶持力度,实现农村经济社会的和谐发展。     

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Nonfinancial Manufacturing Firms in Turkey

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large panel of corporate firms and includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms that regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the period 1996-2008. The study suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. Small and medium-size manufacturing firms and firms with a low export share are less likely to have access to bank finance, especially in tight periods. In addition, financially constrained firms with limited access to bank finance (small, low-export-share firms) tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans more aggressively in tight periods as monetary policy tightens. The large volume of trade credit on firms' balance sheets and its positive response to contractionary monetary shocks imply that the trade credit channel might subdue the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.     

The implications of the FTC's clear and conspicuous standards for the communication of credit card information to young consumers

College students are an important target market for credit card companies and are substantial users of this form of credit, even though they may not have the appropriate knowledge to make informed decisions regarding credit cards. Specific to financial services marketing, the focus of this study is to ascertain whether college-age students recall and understand disclosed information in credit card commercials. This study analyzes the effectiveness of three disclosure standards advocated by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) which are intended to ensure that consumers (such as college students) are appropriately informed. Specifically, this study focuses on: (1) modality, (2) audience consideration and (3) distraction level present during the disclosure presentation. Tests of the impact of these standards on consumer recall and comprehension of disclosed information have been mixed and the extant research has failed to test all of the standards in combination. An important contribution that this research makes is the reconciliation of differences found in previous research, while revealing the effects that implementing multiple FTC standards has on college students’ recall and comprehension, perceptions of recall and comprehension, and attitudes and behavioral intentions.     

The implications of the FTC's clear and conspicuous standards for the communication of credit card information to young consumers

College students are an important target market for credit card companies and are substantial users of this form of credit, even though they may not have the appropriate knowledge to make informed decisions regarding credit cards. Specific to financial services marketing, the focus of this study is to ascertain whether college-age students recall and understand disclosed information in credit card commercials. This study analyzes the effectiveness of three disclosure standards advocated by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) which are intended to ensure that consumers (such as college students) are appropriately informed. Specifically, this study focuses on: (1) modality, (2) audience consideration and (3) distraction level present during the disclosure presentation. Tests of the impact of these standards on consumer recall and comprehension of disclosed information have been mixed and the extant research has failed to test all of the standards in combination. An important contribution that this research makes is the reconciliation of differences found in previous research, while revealing the effects that implementing multiple FTC standards has on college students’ recall and comprehension, perceptions of recall and comprehension, and attitudes and behavioral intentions.     

我国政策性银行开展绿色信贷的动因与实践--基于政策性金融背景下的研究

本文以政策性金融理论和现实基础为研究背景,论述我国绿色信贷政策的发展历程,分析了我国政策性银行开展绿色信贷的原因,并结合国家开发银行和进出口银行的实践,针对我国政策性银行继续推行绿色信贷业务提出了建议。     

央行票据再考察:债务置换工具视角

与把央行票据性质定位为中央银行债券的传统角度不同,本文从债务置换工具的视角重新阐释了央行票据的性质。我国的"外汇资产—人民币"发行模式导致了货币的超额发行,央行票据是对中央银行超额发行债务的置换。外汇资产的递增趋势决定了央行票据作为债务置换工具的可持续性。针对央行票据过度膨胀带来的负面影响,文章认为,应该从根源上解决人民币超额发行问题。     

An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings

This paper examines two specific aspects of stage 1 of the Bank for International Settlement’s (BIS’s) proposed reforms to the 8% risk-based capital ratio. We argue that relying on “traditional” agency ratings could produce cyclically lagging rather leading capital requirements, resulting in an enhanced rather than reduced degree of instability in the banking and financial system. Despite this possible shortcoming, we believe that sensible risk based weighting of capital requirements is a step in the right direction. The current risk based bucketing proposal, which is tied to external agency ratings, or possibly to internal bank ratings, however, lacks a sufficient degree of granularity. In particular, lumping A and BBB (investment grade corporate borrowers) together with BB and B (below investment grade borrowers) severely misprices risk within that bucket and calls, at a minimum, for that bucket to be split into two. We examine the default loss experience on corporate bonds for the period 1981–1999 and propose a revised weighting system which more closely resembles the actual loss experience on credit assets.