预期转股冲击与企业杠杆调整——基于可转债的断点回归分析

股票价格高于转股价格时可转换债券内嵌期权由虚值变成实值状态,可转债持有者可能自愿转为股票对企业而言是一种外生的杠杆率下降冲击。文章从可转债预期转股冲击视角,采用断点回归分析的方法,探讨预期转股冲击对企业杠杆调整的作用程度和影响路径,同时分析预期转股冲击对不同来源负债的影响差异,并检验债务累积风险不同的企业杠杆调整的异质性。研究发现：企业增加当期杠杆率以应对预期转股冲击,预期转股冲击通过增加股价信息含量和提高股票流动性的路径影响企业杠杆调整,其显著提高经营杠杆而不影响金融杠杆。进一步分组检验表明,债务累积风险低的企业对预期转股冲击导致的预期杠杆率下降更为敏感,积极调整企业杠杆率,预期转股冲击不会叠加债务累积风险高的企业杠杆率。可转债融资工具有助于企业实现稳杠杆。     

可转换债券发行的长期股票市场价格绩效研究

应用长期事件研究法,对2000-2004年间发行可转换债券的上市公司的长期市场绩效表现进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,可转债发行前后,可转债标的公司的长期股票价格绩效在绝大多数区间上显著优于行业、规模与权益市值对面值比率的对照组,也显著优于等权加权和总市值加权的综合市场收益率;选择兼有债权和股票期权双重属性的可转债,在一定程度上可以维持标的公司股票价格长期绩效的优良表现。     

可转债发行公司经营绩效实证研究

对中国上市公司2000-2004年间发行的可转债进行研究,统计检验结果发现,可转债发行后两年内,发行公司经营绩效有小幅下降,与行业规模组对比,发行可转债的公司属于绩优公司,发行前后各项绩效指标都高于行业规模组,而与增发配股组比较,二者不存在显著差异,发行后转债组的成长性指标高于增发配股组。     

中国资本市场融资顺序新证:可转债发行公告效应研究

This paper empirically shows that the announcements of the issue of convertible bonds (CBs) by Chinese firms have significant negative effects on shareholders’ wealth. We find that when the samples are partitioned by equity component negative market responses towards the announcements of issuing equity-like CBs are more than that of debt-like CBs. This finding is different from the “pecking order hypothesis” of Myers and Majluf (1984). By analyzing the firm characteristics of convertible bond issuers, we find that the wealth effects are negatively related to equity component, firm size and issue size of convertible bonds, and are positively related to financial leverage, liquidity structure of equity, book value of non-liquidity equity and market-to-book ratio. The underlying reason of equity finance taking precedence of bond finance in Chinese capital market can be attributed the to special “two-system-ownership structure” and corporate governance of Chinese listed companies. Translated from Guanli Shijie 管理世界 (Management World), 2006, (6): 19–27     

Anatomy of option features in convertible bonds

Several earlier theoretical studies on the optimal issuer's calling policy of a convertible bond suggest that the issuer should call the bond as soon as the conversion value exceeds the call price. However, empirical studies on actual cases of calling by convertible bond issuers reveal that firms “delayed” calling their convertible bonds until the conversion value well exceeded the call price. In this paper, we construct valuation algorithms that price risky convertible bonds with embedded option features. In particular, we examine the impact of the soft call and hard call constraints, notice period requirement and other factors on the optimal issuer's calling policy. Our results show that the critical stock price at which the issuer should optimally call the convertible bond depends quite sensibly on these constraints and requirements. The so‐called “delayed call phenomena” may be largely attributed to the underestimation of the critical call price due to inaccurate modeling of the contractual provisions. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:513–532, 2004     

可转换债券发行动机研究述评

在国际学术界,用于解释可转换债券发行动机的研究成果有资产替代假说、评估风险假说,后门融资假说与阶段性融资假说。同国外比起来,我国在可转换债券发行动机方面的研究还较少,研究方法的角度还有待改善。全面深入地弄清可转换债券发行动机,无论对发行可转换债券企业,还是对鼓励和扶持可转换债券都很有意义。     

可转换公司债券经济实质分析

本文在对业已存在于会计实务界和会计理论界的可转换公司债券交易特征分析的基础上,分析了可转换公司债券的经济实质所在,指出可转换公司债券是一种兼有债性、股性和转换期权三重特征的复合金融衍生工具。认识可转换公司债券的经济实质是对其进行会计确认、计量和报告的前提条件,是研究可转换公司债券问题的逻辑起点。     

基于集对论的可转换债券定价模型

可转债是一种既含债券性质又含期权性质的金融衍生产品,利用常规的定价模型常常低估市场价格,使定价方法的可信度大大降低。基于集对分析方法,选取单因素B-S期权定价模型与单因素交换期权模型,对定价模型进行测度和修正,通过实证检验,可以了解到,修正后的定价模型更具适用性。     

可转换债券融资动因综述

可转换债券作为一种重要的融资方式,是介于股票和债券之间的一种债券。可转换债券具有期权的性质,企业采用可转换债券融资的原因主要包括代理成本、信息不对称、税收优惠与条款设计。通过对可转换债券融资动因的文献进行简单的梳理,得出我国应该借鉴国际上可转换债券的研究结论,重点从可转换债券的条款设计入手,来防止代理成本、信息不对称等一系列的问题,从而使可转换债券市场得到稳定、持续的发展。     

可转换债券融资对我国上市公司价值的影响研究

可转换债券兼有股权融资和债权融资的两种效用,通常会促使投资者对转股时机与转股数量有不同的决策,这些决策对发行可转换债券的公司价值有不同影响。文章通过建立影响公司价值的分析模型,探讨我国上市公司发行可转换债券对公司价值所产生的影响,并利用我国上市公司1998年至2014年期间发行可转换债券的样本数据进行实证分析。研究发现：上市公司进行可转换债券融资后,公司价值会因其偿债能力变化而下降;国有股权比例之于公司价值的影响,是通过影响公司经理人经营行为来实现的;成长性不同的公司在债券存续期内的公司价值变化,并不存在显著差异。文章基于委托代理角度对可转换债券影响我国上市公司价值展开研究,在一定程度和范围内拓宽了公司治理问题的分析空间。     

Why Doesn't the Black‐‐Scholes Model Fit Japanese Warrants and Convertible Bonds?

In this paper, we investigate the systematic departures of traded prices of Japanese equity warrants and convertible bonds from their theoretical Black–Scholes values. We briefly consider transactions costs and the dilution adjustment as potential explanations of the discrepancy. However, our major focus is on shifts in volatility of the prices of the underlying stocks as a function of the stock price changes; such shifts are not taken into account in the Black–Scholes values. We assume that the pseudo‐probability distributions of prices of stocks of cross‐sections of companies which are roughly similar in size are identical. This simple assumption, which can be generalized, enables us to infer the implied probability distribution and binomial tree for stock price changes using the Derman and Kani (1994), Rubinstein (1994) and Shimko (1993) approach. The cross‐section of warrant prices implies an inverse volatility smile and a positively skewed probability density for stock prices. Rubinstein's identifying assumptions generate an implied binomial tree in which the relative size of up‐steps and down‐steps, and thus volatility, changes systematically as stock prices change. We briefly consider potential explanations for the implied behaviour, and for the difference in the smile pattern between index options and the warrants and convertibles.     

中国可转债发行的股权价值效应

本文运用Merton(1990)的或有索取权分析方法,对中国上市公司发行可转债行为对非流通股东和流通股东股权价值的不同影响作了深入的分析,得出如下结论:(1)在中国目前股权分割的情况下,无论可转债是否按照合理价格发行,原有流通股的价值都会减少;(2)在非流通股东占控股地位的情况下,它会选择折价发行并向全体股东配售这一对其最为有利而对流通股东最为不利的可转债发行方案。并在此基础上提出政策建议:修改可转债发行法规,规定可转债只能向原有流通股股东配售,不能向社会公众和非流通股股东配售。     

The valuation of inflation‐indexed and FX convertible bonds

This paper derives a valuation model of inflation‐indexed convertible bonds that incorporates the firm's stock price, inflation indexing and the firm's credit risk. The pricing of inflation‐indexed convertible bonds traded on the Tel‐Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) was empirically tested by using a comprehensive database. The study is the first to empirically test the pricing of convertibles in emerging markets. It was found that the theoretical values for the bonds are, on average, 1.94% higher than the observed market prices. Unlike previous studies, it was found that the underpricing increases with the moneyness of the convertible. It was found that as the maturity lengthens, the underpricing increases. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:634–655, 2008     

我国发行可转债上市公司的财务共性与投资价值实证分析

发行可转债上市公司的基本面状况及其融资、投资和股利分配行为具有共性,在国内上市公司存在“融资饥渴”现象以及股权融资偏好现状下,公司为发行可转债和顺利转股,会做出有利于可转债投资人的决策。对可转债价格波动进行实证分析,证实了可转债具有较大的投资价值。     

Is There a Gold Social Seal? The Financial Effects of Additions to and Deletions from Social Stock Indices

This study investigates the financial effects of additions to and deletions from the most well-known social stock index: the MSCI KLD 400. Our study makes use of the unique setting that index reconstitution provides and allows us to bypass possible issues of endogeneity that commonly plague empirical studies of the link between corporate social and financial performance. By examining not only short-term returns but also trading activity, earnings per share, and long-term performance of stocks that are involved in these events, we bring forward evidence of a ‘social index effect’ where unethical transgressions are penalized more heavily than responsibility is rewarded. We find that the addition of a stock to the index does not lead to material changes in its market price, whereas deletions are accompanied by negative cumulative abnormal returns. Trading volumes for deleted stocks are significantly increased on the event date, while the operational performances of the respective firms deteriorate after their deletion from the social index.     

International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics

Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation and international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows.     

Patterns of international capital raisings

This paper documents several new patterns associated with firms issuing stocks and bonds in foreign markets that motivate the need for and help guide the direction of future research. Three major patterns stand out. (1) A large and growing fraction of capital raisings, especially debt issuances, occurs in international markets, but a very small number of firms accounts for the bulk of international capital raisings, highlighting the cross-firm heterogeneity in financial globalization. (2) Changes in firm performance following equity and debt issuances in international markets are qualitatively similar to those following domestic issuances, suggesting that capital raisings abroad are not intrinsically different from those in domestic markets. (3) Firms continue to issue securities both abroad and at home after accessing international markets, suggesting that international and domestic markets are complements, not substitutes. Existing theories do not fully account for these patterns.     

可转换债券发行动机研究综述

国内外学者从各种角度对公司可转换债券的发行动机进行了探讨,并提出了各类假说.通过综述学者们的相关研究成果,详细梳理各类假说提出的原由及内容,便于进一步研究可转换债券发行动机.     

Determinants of callable convertible bond prices

A new model is proposed in this paper that efficiently estimates the after-market prices of callable convertible bonds. The proposed model is shown to be fairly stable over time and across firm size. The paper also shows that, among other factors, call price and bankruptcy indicators are significant determinants of callable convertible bond prices, suggesting that a priori specification regarding the exercise of call option and the ignorance of firm's possible bankruptcy, as done in past studies, are inappropriate for convertible bond price estimation.     

农业与证券市场的发展

农业企业通过在证券市场发行股票和债券,能够迅速地把分散在社会上的闲散货币集中起来,形成巨额的、可供长期使用的资本,用于生产和经营,从而开辟了不同于间接融资（银行贷款）的直接融资渠道。证券市场还具有促使公司转换经营机制的功能。证券市场对农业经营主体有一定的要求,公司要成为上市公司,必须先改制成为股份公司,按照股份公司的机制来运作。农业企业要在证券市场发行证券,也要经过严格的审查程序,要有良好的业绩。