Changes in the options contract size and arbitrage opportunities

We examine the impacts of changes to the options multiplier on market efficiency by analyzing their effects on arbitrage proxies based on the performance of options spread strategies. Despite the intentions of the reforms, both decisions to raise and reduce the multiplier significantly increase the frequency and probability of arbitrage opportunities. Whereas the increment in the multiplier also deteriorates market efficiency by increasing the duration and average size of the arbitrage opportunities in a day, the decrement does not affect these proxies. Our results overall provide evidence that reforms to the options multiplier do not enhance market efficiency and suggest that retail investors are not homogeneously noisy.     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.     

我国会计国际化：机遇与挑战

会计国际化作为未来会计的一种发展趋势，受到越来越多会计学界的关注。随着中国加入世贸组织，中国会计国际化的进程将进一步加快。本集中讨论了我国会计国际化所面临的机遇和挑战，以及促进国际化进程的建议。     

Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.     

An intraday test of pricing and arbitrage opportunities in the New Zealand bank bill futures market

This paper examines pricing and arbitrage opportunities in the New Zealand bank bill futures market using an intraday data set. The key findings are: (a) the implied forward rate model yields biased estimates of the bill futures yield but the bias is small and not economically significant; (b) ex post synthetic bill opportunities are more numerous than ex post quasi‐arbitrage opportunities but the yield enhancements are minor; (c) ex post quasi‐arbitrage opportunities are substantially less frequent and less profitable than reported by prior studies using closing data; and (d) arbitrage opportunities decline when execution delays are introduced but the declines are not statistically significant. In broad terms, the bill futures market is efficient with respect to quasi‐arbitrage but less so with respect to synthetic bill opportunities. The results also suggest that arbitrage opportunities are not generally available to arbitrageurs without access to the interbank bill market. The incidence of arbitrage opportunities is on a par with levels reported in intraday studies of stock index and foreign exchange markets. This illustrates the importance of using high frequency data to assess transactional efficiency in financial markets. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:519–555, 2002     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Necessity and Opportunity Entrepreneurs and Their Duration in Self-employment: Evidence from German Micro Data

Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP), we analyze whether necessity entrepreneurs differ from opportunity entrepreneurs in terms of self-employment duration. Using univariate statistics, we find that opportunity entrepreneurs remain in self-employment longer than necessity entrepreneurs. However, after controlling for the entrepreneurs’ education in the professional area where they start their venture, this effect is no longer significant. We therefore conclude that the difference observed is not an original effect but rather is due to selection. We then go on to discuss the implications of our findings for entrepreneurship-policy making, and give suggestions to improve governmental start-up programs.

International entrepreneurship beyond individuals and firms: On the systemic nature of international opportunities

The present study approaches opportunities in international entrepreneurship from a systemic perspective. Based on research on the collectiveness of opportunities in international entrepreneurship and the concepts of activity and object from activity theory, we develop a systemic conceptualization of opportunity-oriented international entrepreneurship. Through an empirical study in Finland and Israel, we depict six collective opportunity beliefs, considered from the viewpoints of society, international venture, and outcome expectations. Furthermore, we induce three modalities for international opportunity as the object of collective activity and model systemic opportunity shaping as the core activity of international entrepreneurship.     

Economic slowdowns,hazard rates and foreign ownership

This paper evaluates the link between foreign ownership and firm exit during crises, using a longitudinal micro dataset over an 18-year period. We address two main questions: first, if foreign affiliates have different failure rates than domestic firms during economic downturns, and second if the foreignness effect differs between two different economic downturns. The results partially confirm the liability of foreignness argument, suggesting that when the crisis was more pronounced at home than abroad, the differences in hazard rates between foreign and domestic firms reduce. The footloose argument is also only partially confirmed. For policy makers, our results on survival dynamics during crises are not against policies stimulating inward investment. There is no need to fear that foreign firms destabilize more than usual the host economy during economic slowdowns by immediately closing down operations.     

The Resource-Based Theory of the Firm and Firm Survival

This paper examines the determinants of firm survival. We use hazard models to test a number of hypotheses mainly drawn from the Resource-Based Theory of the Firm. According to the Resource-Based View the ability of a firm to develop distinct capabilities enhances its ability to adapt to the changing competitive environment and improves its survival prospects. The results confirm that firms that develop firm-specific assets through advertising and making R&D (independently of the technological intensity of the industry) enjoy better survival prospects. Furthermore, failure risk increases up to about 20 years of trading, and then decreases to later rise in line with liability of “adolescence” and “senescence.”      

Legal reform and aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates: evidence from the 1997 Belgian bankruptcy code

Many Continental European countries recently reformed their bankruptcy legislations to stimulate reorganization and firm survival. We show that the Belgian 1997 bankruptcy code reform, which implemented several international best practice recommendations, significantly reduced aggregate small and micro business bankruptcy rates. However, using distributed lag models to control for the relationship between bankruptcy rates and macroeconomic variables such as real GDP growth, consumer confidence, inflation, etc., we find that the new code’s impact is not the same for all types of companies. Specifically, while the beneficial effect of the reform is largely similar between small firms (i.e. stock corporations) and micro firms (i.e. partnerships), it is only significant in certain industries (manufacturing and trade). Overall, our results indicate that especially the measures taken to limit domino bankruptcy effects are likely to have had a substantial impact. Our findings have several policy implications for the evaluation and modification of the bankruptcy system.

Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets

A large body of the empirical literature shows that high turnover rates/length of tenure of policymakers and the degree of conflict within a country affects sovereign spreads, debt and default rates. We help to rationalize such claims by including these political features in a dynamic stochastic small open economy model of sovereign debt and default. In this way we offer a complementary approach to the econometric analyses in the literature. Consistent with the data, the quantitative analysis shows that politically unstable and more polarized economies experience higher default rates and larger level and volatility of sovereign interest rate spreads.     

Internationalisation of technology-oriented firms in Germany and the UK

Based on longitudinal data, this article examines empirically the long-term export behaviour of German and British technology-oriented firms founded between 1987 and 1996. Applying logit models, the results show that firms can overcome high entry costs by acquiring firm-specific assets. Similarly, firm-specific resources prevent high-tech companies from exiting the international market. The strategic role of investment in R&D is stressed in particular by the data.

Long-run real exchange rates in the Four Little Dragons

This paper analyses changes in the exchange rate arrangements and policy and their impact on the long-run real exchange rates of the Asian Four Little Dragons. It is found that purchasing power parity is a basic guide in formulating the exchange rate policy of the Four Little Dragons and that exchange rate regimes are very responsive to the effect of major external disturbances on prices. Thus, the exchange rate policy and arrangements are important factors in shaping the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the FLDs, which tend to return to the long-run average value. To test the null hypothesis that purchasing power parity does not hold between the Four Little Dragons and the United States, two cointegration tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Johansen test, are applied. As the symmetry and proportionality conditions are not supported by the data, the tests are conducted in a trivariate system. While the ADF test does not support PPP, evidence of cointegration is found by the Johansen test.     

On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates

Previous findings of long-run purchasing power parity come mainly from data for industrial countries, raising the issue of whether the results suffer sample-selection bias and exaggerate the general relevance of parity reversion. This study uncovers substantial cross-country heterogeneity in the persistence of deviations from parity. The results show that it is more likely, rather than less likely, to find parity reversion for developing countries than industrial countries. Although some persistence variations may partly reflect country differences in structural characteristics such as inflation experience and government spending, a considerable portion of those variations seems unaccounted for.     

Dealing with existing theory: national fatality rates,vehicle standards and personal safety

Abstract

In this paper we discuss some of the weaknesses in exiting theories and understandings behind road safety interventions and policy making. The paper deals with four main issues: road traffic fatality rates and per capita income of countries, vehicle crashworthiness standards, role of pedestrian and powered two-wheeler share in traffic on fatalities, and safety standards for vehicles other than cars. Recent data indicate that there may not be a strong relationship between income and road safety performance and it is possible for low and middle-income countries (LMIC) to decrease death rates at present income levels. Safer cars have had a major role in reducing fatality rates, but, gains in traffic safety in high income countries may be partly due to reducing exposure of vulnerable road users. Small lightweight vehicles (like tuk-tuks, three-wheeled scooter taxis) operating in many LMIC appear to have low fatality rates though they do not follow any crashworthiness standards. Very different crashworthiness standards need to be developed for low mass vehicles incapable of operating speeds greater than 50?km/h. LMIC may not be able to reduce fatality rates below about 7 per 100,000 population unless there are innovative developments in road design and all vehicle safety standards.     

A term structure model for dividends and interest rates

Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump‐diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and the dividend paying stock are given in closed form. We present an efficient moment based approximation method for option pricing. In a calibration exercise we show that a parsimonious model specification has a good fit with Euribor interest rate swaps and swaptions, Euro Stoxx 50 Index dividend futures and dividend options, and Euro Stoxx 50 Index options.     

Commentary on “Governance and resource interaction in networks: Venture capital's role in a biotech start-up”

This commentary discusses the main findings and contributions of the article by Strömsten and Waluszewski (this issue) on the interplay between venture capitalists and start-ups. The commentary stresses the importance of bringing together analytically the three worlds of VC governance, innovation processes and network interactions, which management theory tend to treat as separate phenomena.     

Determining investment size and local embeddedness under host market uncertainty and growth rates

This study employs a growth options perspective to examine how multinational corporations (MNCs) design their investment attributes under the influence of host market uncertainty and growth rates. It specifically examines MNCs’ decisions on investment size and local embeddedness under host market conditions. Using data on Korean overseas manufacturing subsidiaries, we find that MNCs choose either more-local-embedded small investments or less-locally-embedded large investments under high demand uncertainty and GDP growth rates. We also find that this choice is moderated by host market political risk and competition. Our findings imply that MNCs consider both uncertainty-driven flexibility and growth rate-induced commitment when selecting international investment modes. This consideration allows MNCs to gain flexibility as well as an enhanced ability to expand in the future. This study contributes to the literature on real options and entry modes in the international business area by showing how host market conditions and investment decisions are related.     

Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy

This paper addresses the ability of central banks to affect the structure of interest rates. We assess the causal relationship between the short‐term Effective Federal Funds Rate (FF) and long‐term interest rates associated with both public and private bonds and specifically, the 10‐Year Treasury Bond (GB10Y) and the Moody's Aaa Corporate Bond (AAA). To do this, we apply Structural Vector Autoregressive models to U.S. monthly data for the 1954–2018 period. Based on results derived from impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition, we find: a bidirectional relationship when GB10Y is considered as the long‐term rate and a unidirectional relationship that moves from short‐ to long‐term interest rates when AAA is considered. These conclusions show that monetary policy is able to permanently affect long‐term interest rates and the central bank has a certain degree of freedom in setting the levels of the short‐term policy rate.