On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.     

Arrival Cohort, Assimilation, and the Earnings of Caribbean Women in the United States

Utilizing data on U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women from the 1980–2000 U.S. Censuses and the 2000–2007 waves of the American Community Survey, I document the impact of cohort of arrival, tenure of U.S. residence, and country/region of birth on the earnings and earnings assimilation of black women born in the English-, French-, and Spanish-speaking Caribbean. I also test whether selective migration accounts for earnings differences between U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women in the United States. I show that almost all arrival cohorts of Caribbean women earn less than U.S.-born black women when they first arrive in the United States. However, over time the earnings of early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean are projected to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black women. Indeed, this crossover is most pronounced for women from the English-speaking Caribbean. In models that account for selective migration by comparing the earnings of Caribbean women to U.S.-born black women who have moved across states since birth, I show that more time is required for early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black internal migrants. Women from the Spanish-speaking Caribbean do not seem to experience earnings growth as their tenure of U.S. residence increases. In summary, the findings suggest that selective migration is an important determinant of earnings differences between U.S.-born black women and black women from the Caribbean.     

The Belt,the Road,and the carbon emissions in China

This paper explores the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's exports and the domestic carbon emissions induced by the exports. We employ a decomposition framework to assess the driving factors of the change of CO₂ emissions induced by China's exports to different destinations and evaluate the main contributions of the gap between the BRI countries and non-BRI (NBRI) countries. The decomposition results show that while the scale effect was the dominant force behind the pre-BRI emission growth, the contribution of the composition effect became more prominent after the inception of the Initiative. Our econometric analysis suggests that the Initiative leads to an increase in the share of carbon-intensive products in China's exports to the BRI countries by nearly 5 percentage points, which is approximately one quarter of the share of carbon-intensive exports to the BRI countries. A further investigation reveals that China's international project contracting is the main channel that has resulted in the increase of the share of carbon-intensive exports in China's exports to the BRI countries.     

Incentives, Choice, and Accountability in the Provision of Public Services

This paper discusses a theoretical framework to study the issuesof competition and incentives without relying on the standardprofit-oriented ‘market’ model in the context ofthe debates about public-service reform in the UK. It uses theidea that the production of public services coheres around amission, and discusses how decentralized service provision canraise productivity by matching motivated workers to their preferredmissions. Our focus on competition and incentives cuts acrosstraditional debates about public versus private ownership andallows for the possibility of involving private non-profit organizations.We also address concerns about the consequences of allowingmore flexibility in mission design and competition on inequality.     

Crime, Incarceration, and Employment in Light of the Great Recession

This paper analyzes the impact of the 2007 recession on the incarceration of African–Americans. It begins with a brief examination of incarceration, followed by a look at the literature on the relationship between work, crime, and incarceration. Finally, it concludes with the implications of these findings for African–Americans as it relates to the current economic crisis.     

Australia, Canada, and the International Economy in the Era of Postwar Reconstruction, 1945–50

Early hopes that a multilateral economy could be speedily restored after World War II were shattered by the sterling crisis of 1947. In the ensuing retreat to bilateralism, Canada acted vigorously to strengthen economic links with the Americans, and in the late 1940s its export dependence on the United States increased dramatically. The Australian response to the crisis was to tighten trading and financial connections with Britain and the rest of the sterling area. The limitations of UK supply capacity, however, eventually encouraged a reversal of policy after the fall of the Labor government, and Australia turned to the dollar area to tap additional resources for accelerated economic development.     

Distributional Coalitions,the Industrial Revolution,and the Origins of Economic Growth in Britain

From the late 1600s to the mid 1800s, Britain was able to transform from a divided kingdom with a fragmented, often stagnant economy into a powerful and stable state that simultaneously saw an expansion in the power, wealth, and stability of the central government while encouraging an economic transformation that gradually allowed both industrial technology and liberal commerce to flourish and break out of its mercantilist straitjacket. We explain how rent-seeking elites who might normally have opposed such sweeping transformations promoted institutional changes that, in the long run, expanded the economy and encouraged innovation even at the expense of class interests. In the short run, this meant that rent-seeking in the 18th century was not so much reduced as redirected from local monopolies to state authorities and Parliament. But in the longer run, the process of professionalization made possible greater liberalism in general, even at the expense of general rent-seeking itself. The position of Parliament as a meta-institution for reforming and weakening rent-creating restrictions as needed was pivotal to this process. Ideological changes—particularly the Scottish enlightenment—transformed the terms of the debate but could only be operationalized once interests were aligned so that gainers from industrialization could compensate or overcome traditional interests.     

Race,class, and politics in the black community of Boston

Conclusion We found that there are indeed some slight differences in the electoral behavior of black voters when we separate them into high and low socio-economic areal categories based on the level of median income. These slight differences include turnout rates for primary and general elections and voter registration rates. The higher the socioeconomic status of the black electorate in Boston, the higher the turnout and registration rates for that area tended to be; however, this relationship was not found to be consistent among all the areas selected for study. Despite these differences in electoral behavior or “practices,” our areal model does not suggest any significant political schisms based on the sicioeconomic indicators used. Black voters tended to vote the same way on a number of city and state ballot questions, support the same candidates at both the city and state level, and vote the liberal preference on both issues and candidates regardless of socioeconomic background. In addition, there is some evidence that the higher a black voter is on the socioeconomic scale, the greater his or her tendency will be to vote the liberal position on various issues and candidates. Our model also suggests that black voters will tend to support black candidates regardless of some socioeconomic factors. If this model can be used as an indication of class differences in the black community, then our data show that socioeconomic criteria are not as salient as race in determining the political behavior and preferences of black voters.     

Agricultural policy,migration, and malaria in the United States in the 1930s

The Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) was associated with a population shift in the United States in the 1930s. Evaluating the relationship between the AAA and the incidence of malaria can therefore offer important lessons regarding the broader consequences of demographic changes. Using a quasi-first difference model and a robust set of controls, we find a negative association between AAA expenditures and malaria death rates at the county level. Further, we find that the AAA was associated with increased out-migration of low-income groups from counties with high-risk malaria ecologies. These results suggest that the AAA-induced migration played an important role in the reduction of malaria.     

林在山 城在林

“森林重庆建设累计投入资金400多亿元,造林1785万亩,各类苗木共计16亿株,相当于每个重庆人种树48棵,造林面积之大,前所未有森林覆盖率从33％提升至39％。创造我国大范围森林覆盖率增长新纪录,增速之快,前所来有！     

竞争、生产率外溢与东道国的产业发展

跨国公司是如何影响东道国的产业发展的？产品市场和要素市场的竞争会挤出内资企业，然而对内资企业正的生产率外溢将提高生产率、降低生产成本，从而提高利润。本文构建了一个简单的理论模型考察跨国公司的竞争效应和生产率外溢对东道国产业发展的影响。模型推导及数值模拟的结果表明，跨国公司对内资企业正的生产率外溢使竞争效应减弱，负的生产率外溢则使竞争效应增强；跨国公司出口销售更加有利于东道国的产业发展。     

Evaluation of the competitiveness of Russian products in world,CIS, EAEC,and non-CIS markets

Based on statistical indicators of external trade, the condition and dynamics of competitiveness of Russia on CIS markets, including EAEC, non-CIS countries, and the world as a whole, are analyzed in the article. An analysis was conducted for products of the mechanical engineering, chemical, fuel, timber, wood-working, pulp-and-paper, light, and food industries.     

Dynamic Spillovers in the United States: Stock Market,Housing, Uncertainty,and the Macroeconomy

In this study, we examine dynamic spillovers among the housing market, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States in a unified empirical framework. Applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology on monthly data over the period 1987M1–2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic fluctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular inflation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilize the economy.     

Silk, regional rivalry, and the impact of the port openings in nineteenth century Japan

The centre of economic activities in Japan was once in western Japan. Since the mid-nineteenth century, however, economic activities within Japan have been continuously shifting towards the east side of the country including Tokyo. Conventional wisdom associates the end of the Tokugawa feudal regime with this eastward shift. By applying a new economic geography model to the silk economy of Japan in the nineteenth century, this paper explains why the majority of industrial activities located initially in western Japan, and offers an alternative economic explanation for the eastward shift as an impact of the port openings in 1859.