基于复合期权的土地储备估值模型研究

土地储备是一种重要的战略资源,其价值与经济社会的发展和是否景气以及市场对土地需求的波动密切相关。基于土地储备的期权特性,将土地储备的价值分解为一系列放弃期权和扩张期权组成的复合期权的价值,研究了在土地储备使用年限内两种期权之间的相互影响,最后对土地储备的价值给出了具体的解析计算公式。     

战略投资决策中的实物期权思维方式

在现代市场经济条件下 ,传统投资决策方法已不适应由于环境的不确定性而产生的动态战略投资管理的需要。本文旨在通过对实物期权思维方式的介绍 ,说明它在企业战略投资决策思考中的应用     

Optimal multiple stopping models of reload options and shout options

The reload provision in an employee stock option entitles its holder to receive one new (reload) option from the employer for each share tendered as the payment of strike upon the exercise of the stock option. The number of reloads allowed can be finite or infinite. The shout feature in a call option allows its holder to reset the option's strike price to the prevailing stock price upon shouting. We explore a symmetry relationship between the price functions of the employee reload options and shout call options. When the dividend yield of the underlying stock is zero, the value of the employee reload option can be expressed in terms of the price functions of a shout call option and a forward contract. For an employee reload option with an infinite number of allowable reloads, the payoff of the employee reload option can be related to the lookback feature of the stock price process. We also examine the optimal exercise policies of the multi-reload employee stock options. The behavior of the critical stock price at which the holder should exercise optimally is shown to depend on the relative magnitude of the dividend yield, interest rate and volatility. Our analysis of the multi-reload and multi-shout options contributes to the literature on optimal stopping policies of contingent claims with multiple stopping rights.     

商业地产分期开发期权价值分析

开发企业采取分期开发方式,可以利用项目未知信息中蕴涵的机会给项目带来进一步选择的灵活性,以扩大项目价值。传统投资决策方法只适用于短期的、确定性高的一次性投资项目,而实物期权理论却是探讨分期开发投资的一种有效工具。采用Geske推导的复合看涨期权定价公式以及B-S简单看涨期权定价模型,构建分期开发期权价值计算模型,求解分期开发期权价值大小。该模型合理地评估了商业地产分期开发期权价值的大小,可以作为商业地产开发商进行投资决策的依据。     

用实物期权增进供应链效率

将金融期权的思想和方法运用到企业经营实力，拓展和深化了期权思想的应用领域，而基于期权思想的供应链整体绩效改进的研究正日益引起理论界和企业界的关注。面对动态、复杂和激励的竞争态势，实物期权在投资决策中已经获得了相当程度的应用，但在供应链模型的应用中仍然缺少具有一般性、可操作的范式。因此，实物期权将更紧密的参与到企业战略制定过程，并被提升到战略管理的高度。论文对实物期权发展历程，理论界以及实务界对实物期权研究和应用情况进行了梳理，并总结了期权思想在供应链风险管理和整体设计中的研究进展。     

Backdating executive stock options—An ex ante valuation

When backdating executive stock options (ESOs), the exercise price is set in favor of the recipient executive. Relative to a non-backdated benchmark, we find an (ex ante) upper bound for the cost of backdating to shrink from 10% to about 3.7%, as a consequence of the regime change represented by the Sarbanes-Oxley act (SOX).We frame the backdating behavior as a (compound) exotic option, considering both simple and extended models of the underlying ESO—in the latter case we draw on the analytical ESO models of Sircar and Xiong (2007). Post-SOX, we use a Longstaff-Schwartz inspired least squares Monte Carlo approach.     

基于二叉树期权定价模型的房地产投资决策分析研究

将实物期权理论引入房地产投资决策过程中,分析了传统DCF法存在的缺陷和房地产投资的期权特性,建立了房地产投资项目的二叉树期权定价模型,并对该模型在实际投资中进行了案例分析。     

Pricing basket spread options with default risk under Heston–Nandi GARCH models

In this paper, we investigate basket spread options under the Heston–Nandi GARCH model. Moreover, we adopt the reduced-form model to capture default risk, which is correlated with all underlying assets. Because of the nonexistence of the analytical fair values, we obtain a closed-form approximated pricing formula of basket spread options with default risk. Finally, we examine the accuracy of approximations and then use the proposed formulae to illustrate the effect of the number of the underlying assets and default risk as well.     

The impact of idiosyncratic uncertainty when investment opportunities are endogenous

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to study the impact of aggregate fluctuations in idiosyncratic volatility that incorporates the endogenous determination of investment opportunities. By making investment options more valuable, an increase in volatility encourages the creation of new investment options. I find the response of the economy to a volatility shock depends on how investment opportunities are obtained. If potential entrants are allowed to invest in new idiosyncratic technologies, thereby acquiring options for further investment, the volatility shock increases overall investment and results in an economic boom. On the other hand, if such an investment in option creation is precluded and investment opportunities are exogenously given, the volatility shock decreases aggregate investment.     

中美股票期权会计政策的比较

美国与股票期权相关的会计政策正处于变更阶段。本文通过对美国股票期权会计政策的内容及变化趋势进行分析,针对我国目前股票期权的会计处理现状,认为目前可行的方法是采用内涵价值法,同时注意与其它现有准则的衔接以及加强股票期权相关信息的披露。     

Managing human resources in dynamic environments to create value: role of HR options

HR options as firm investments in human assets in uncertain environments to create the capability to flexibly respond to future contingent events have been recognised as valuable. However, the black box of causal interlinkages between environmental uncertainties, HR options and firm performance is yet to be explored in strategic HRM literature. Based on the data obtained from 108 IT software firms in India, this study empirically explores these linkages using a multi-level causal model. The results suggest that the use of HR options positively mediates the effects of environmental uncertainties on firm performance. The mediating influences of different types of HR options, used by the firms to manage various types of uncertainties affecting their human assets, on the operational and the financial performance of the firms are found to be different. Implications of findings of the study for managing investments in human assets under uncertainty have been discussed.     

Applying real options theory to HRM: an empirical study of IT software firms in India

Environmental uncertainties can impact the market value of a firm's human assets both positively and negatively, and make return on human assets uncertain over time. However, the strategic human resource management (SHRM) literature has so far focused almost exclusively only on the upside value of human assets of a firm. Real options theory can provide the process heuristics as well as the economic logic for guiding investments in human assets to create sustainable market value for firms operating in uncertain environments. In spite of the growth in popularity of the real options approach, no meaningful progress, however, has been made towards application of this approach to HRM. This study, using data from 108 IT software development firms in India, seeks to address this gap and make three important contributions to the SHRM literature: (1) operationalise the concept of HR options by identifying the HR practices that possess option value; (2) investigate how use of HR options affects firm-level performance; and (3) develop and test a causal model that links the various types of HR options that firms use to exploit uncertainties faced by them with the firm-level operational and financial outcomes. The results support the central hypothesis of the article that use of HR options by firms operating in uncertain environments would have positive impact on their operational and financial performance. Significant differences were observed in the nature of linkages between different types of HR options used to address different types of uncertainties, and the operational and financial performance of the firm.     

American contingent claims under small proportional transaction costs

American options are considered in the binary tree model under small proportional transaction costs. Dynamic programming type algorithms, which extend the Snell envelope construction, are developed for computing the ask and bid prices (also known as the upper and lower hedging prices) of such options together with the corresponding optimal hedging strategies for the writer and for the seller of the option. Representations of the ask and bid prices of American options in terms risk-neutral expectations of stopped option payoffs are also established in this setting.     

An effective hybrid variance reduction method for pricing the Asian options and its variants

In this paper, we propose a variance reduction method that combines importance sampling and control variates to price European Arithmetic Asian options and its variants (i.e., Asian options plus knock-in or knock-out options) under the Black-Scholes model. The numerical results show that the proposed methods are especially efficient under the following scenarios: in the money, low volatility, more sampling dates, and higher barrier thresholds.     

基于实物期权的品牌价值评估初探

企业间的竞争将最终归为品牌的竞争。作为品牌管理重要一环的品牌价值评估正越来越为人所重视。但是现行的品牌价值评估方法都忽略了品牌所有者可以根据环境相机而动,并增大品牌价值的能力。为弥补这一不足,通过引入实物期权的相关理论,并提出了一种品牌估价的新方法。     

Formulation of financial valuation methodologies for NASA's human spaceflight projects

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) must continually evaluate proposals to upgrade its human spaceflight systems. These proposals may be initiated to enhance safety, improve performance, or provide improved cost value. In the current restrictive budget environment, the cost valuation should be strengthened to ensure the best use of limited funding. NASA has not frequently utilized financial analysis in project consideration, and business case analysis is often lacking during annual budgetary assessments. Some of the reasons inhibiting financial analysis are uncertainty in the projections of long life‐cycle costs, gains that may seem intangible and difficult to monetize, and the political environment. This paper explores ways in which some financial valuation methods, coupled with reformulation of project cash flows, might enhance NASA's analysis process. Among these methods is real option analysis (ROA), which is discussed in the context of several NASA upgrade projects.     

高新技术企业实物期权的识别

实物期权作为一种价值评估工具,有着传统价值评估方法无可比拟的优越性,同时作为一种柔性决策工具,它可以更有效地揭示企业未来潜在价值,同时使企业有效地利用资源并结合市场对本企业实行有效地战略化管理。如何利用实物期权对企业价值作出有效评估,识别企业所拥有的实物期权是关键。文章主要对企业实物期权的各种来源作出阐述,以便成为企业在未来时间内整合自有资源以及战略发展的引航标。     

Co-development ventures: Optimal time of entry and profit-sharing

We find the optimal time for entering a joint venture by two firms, and the optimal linear contract for sharing the profits. We consider risk-sharing, timing-incentive and asymmetric decisions contract designs. If the firms are risk-neutral and the cash payments are allowed, all three designs are equivalent. With risk aversion, the optimal contract parameters may vary significantly across the three designs and across varying levels of risk aversion. We also analyze a dataset of joint biomedical ventures, in which, in agreement with our theoretical predictions, both royalty and cash payments are mostly increasing in the smaller firm's experience, and the time of entry happens sooner for more experienced small firms.     

我国企业慈善捐赠的障碍及政策选择

我国慈善事业的发展还处在初级阶段,企业慈善捐赠的积极性不是很高,企业慈善捐赠的水平仍然很低。企业慈善捐赠面临诸多障碍:索捐、迫捐、诈捐现象时有发生;政府在慈善捐赠中的角色定位不清;企业在享受税收优惠等激励方面限制太多;民间慈善组织的发展受到束缚。因此,转变慈善捐赠观念,完善有关慈善捐赠的法律法规,是我国慈善事业发展的当务之急。