External Debt and Growth in Emerging Economies

The paper studies the relationship between external debt and economic growth in a panel of emerging countries. A number of economists have proposed different methods of analysing the nexus between economic growth and public debt. The paper investigates the debt-growth nexus using a linear and non-linear specification, employing a panel ARDL model on 13 emerging countries during the period 1990–2016. The results show that there is no robust effect of debt on economic growth in the long run; however in the short run, external debt is negatively and significantly correlated to economic growth.     

Teacher and Student Economic Understanding in Transition Economies

This study describes a new data set and uses it for an exploratory investigation of whether seminars for teachers conducted by the National Council on Economic Education through its International Education Exchange Program (IEEP) had a beneficial effect on the economic understanding of the high school students of these teachers. The data were collected using a non-equivalent control group design that sorted teachers into two groups based on whether or not they participated in an IEEP seminar. Pre- and posttests of economics were administered to the students of these teachers in Lithuania, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland. The exploratory results showed a larger increase in the economic understanding of students of teachers who participated in the IEEP seminars compared with students of teachers who did not. The results also showed that knowledge of economics among IEEP teachers was a factor for improving student achievement in economics. The findings should be viewed with caution because of data limitations.     

Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies

The paper discusses recent changes in central bank laws and the relationship between inflation and central bank independence in transition economies. Two indices of legal independence are constructed, covering political and economic aspects of independence. Most of the countries experienced high-inflation episodes in the recent past and changes introduced to the laws after, or simultaneously, with stabilization programmes strengthened the position of the central banks. In further analysis, an inverse relationship emerges between inflation and indices of central bank independence. However, the robust relationship is present only at a high level of economic liberalization. This conclusion is supported by results from regressions on time-aggregated and panel data, even after controlling for the government fiscal position and the absence/presence of an IMF stabilization package.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Consensus among Economics Teachers from Transition Economies

The authors analyze the economic opinions of teachers and economists from the former Soviet Union who participated in economic education programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education under the auspices of the National Council on Economic Education from 1995–2001. They sought to determine the level of consensus on economic topics among the participants, and then analyzed their concordance with U.S. economists. They conclude that there is a significant level of consensus among the participants from the former Soviet Union, but this consensus is often at odds with the views of American economists.     

对外负债与经济增长

本文分别在理论和实证上分析了对外负债与经济增长的关系。在拉姆齐-卡斯-库普曼斯框架下构建的理论模型预测结果显示:对于大国,对外负债率与经济增长之间可能呈现负向或正向的单调关系,也可能呈现倒"U"型的关系;对于小国,对外负债率与经济增长之间只存在负向或正向的单调关系。分别以发达国家和发展中国家为样本实证分析的结果表明:对于发达国家,当对外负债率处于较低水平时,负债率增加会促进经济增长,当对外负债率超过60%时,负债率增加不利于经济增长;对于发展中国家,不管对外负债率处于何种水平,负债率增加都会使经济增长的速度下降。实证分析的结果与理论模型的预测基本吻合。     

The Coevolution of Finance and Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies

The transition from communism to capitalism was necessarily accompanied by a sudden and abrupt increase in the financialization of society. This increase occurred in an environment that, even now, still has little experience with or expertise in financialization. Given that financialization occurred simultaneously with the growth and evolution of other political and economic institutions, the question arises: What was the effect on these other nascent institutions like property rights? This article empirically analyzes the relationship between financialization and property rights in transition countries. Using a unique monthly database of twenty transition countries over a period from 1989 to 2012, this article finds that the influence of financialization depends on which definition of “financialization” is used. In particular, increases in basic financial intermediation improved property rights. However, higher-order “financialization,” proxied here by the size of capital markets and the wages in the financial sector, appeared to have a negative impact on the development of broad-based property rights in transition.     

The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach

This article examines the J-curve phenomenon for 16 European transition economies. While previous studies assume a linear relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance, this paper allows for nonlinearity. Following Bahmani-Oskooee and Fariditavana (2015 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2015. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach, Asymmetric Effects and the J-curve.” Journal of Economic Studies 42 (3): 519–530. doi:10.1108/JES-03-2015-0042.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2016 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2016. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-curve Phenomenon.” Open Economies Review 27 (1): 51–70. doi:10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the empirical method used is the nonlinear cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013 Shin, Y., B. Yu, and M. J. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2013. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, edited by William C. Horrace and Robin C. Sickles. New York, NY: Springer Science and Business Media. [Google Scholar]) in which short-run and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive (appreciation) and negative (depreciation) partial sum decompositions of the real exchange rate. We argue that the lack of support for the J-curve phenomenon could be due to the linearity assumption. This issue is examined by utilizing the linear and the NARDL models. Using the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we are unable to find support for the J-curve phenomenon in any case. However, when the NARDL model is used, we are able to find evidence for the J-curve in 12 out of the 16 countries. This suggests that allowing for nonlinearity in the adjustment process is important when studying the J-curve phenomenon.     

论推进经济增长方式的根本性转变

了解经济增长方式演变的基本规律,可以对我国增长方式的转变起到重要的借鉴和推动作用。现阶段我国建立在粗放型增长方式基础之上的经济发展,在资源、环境、经济结构和国际关系等方面给我国的社会经济生活带来了许多严重的问题和困难。切实转变经济增长方式,要从各个方面、各个环节进行不懈的艰苦努力。     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

我国财政支出对经济增长非线性效应——基于省级面板数据的平滑转移模型实证分析

文章基于我国1997-2009年省级面板数据,采用数据本身隐含信息进行内分组的面板平滑转移模型来检验财政支出与经济增长之间的非线性效应,并进一步拓展了Armey曲线推论。研究发现,我国省级政府财政一般预算支出规模和财政支出结构均与经济增长之间存在Armey曲线所描绘的非线性效应,其中财政一般预算支出最优规模为9.32%,财政支出最优结构为1.643,并且财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构都在最优值两侧对经济增长的影响具有不对称性,相比而言,财政一般预算支出规模的转换速度似乎更快。这意味着现阶段我国财政一般预算支出规模与财政支出结构不合理,需要政府提高财政支出效率。     

关于医院规模经济的实证分析

规模发展已经成为当今医院在市场竞争中的一种主要手段。运用超越对数成本函数,选取了某区域15家三级甲等医院2002—2006年的数据,估算出了医院的规模经济系数。计量结果显示,增加劳动力投入和资本投入均不能带来规模经济,该样本中的医院均处于规模不经济状态。此外还就医院的规模不经济问题进行原因分析和提出若干建议。     

Hidden Economy – an Unknown Quantity? Comparative Analysis of Hidden Economies in Transition Countries, 1989–95

The study investigates the size of the hidden economy and related features, in post-socialist countries. After dealing critically with the approach of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, a method based on household electricity consumption is used to estimate the ratio of the hidden economy to the official GDP in 20 countries. Following a uniform growth in the size of the hidden economy in all the countries at the beginning of their transition, stagnation or further increase was experienced in the CIS countries, while an explicit declining tendency could be seen in the remaining economies. Comparisons show that the ratio of the hidden economy in post-socialist countries is significantly larger than in developed market economies. The paper analyses the relationships between the visible private economy, the advancement of reforms, corruption, and the size of the hidden economy.     

基于质量指数的经济增长转型测度研究——以深圳经济增长为例

中国经济如何实现由速度型向质量型转化是一个充满了探索性的问题,学者们从不同理论视角给予了广泛关注。而如何设计一个指数从定量角度测评速度向质量转化进程,以便直观地反映经济增长转型的度是理论研究不可或缺的部分。通过借鉴市场化指数的经济原理与设计思路,设计了质量指数作为测量经济增长模式转型的定量指标,定量测算了由深圳速度到深圳质量跨越的实现程度。实证测评结果显示:深圳速度已经开始向深圳质量转化,但人民生活水平提高的幅度与深圳经济发展水平存在较大的落差。以此为契机,为定量测度我国经济增长转型提供一个分析思路。     

Technological versus Pecuniary External Economies: The Former Should Rule the Roost

The paper endeavors to illustrate that though the existing literature emphasizes the dynamic role of Scitovskian pecuniary external economies to account for the growth of innovations, highlighting particular types of market interdependence, such interdependencies can just highlight quasi-rent-led static adjustments that do not ensure an endogenous growth of innovations; the possibility of the growth of innovations remains exogenous. In this context, the present paper highlights the importance of division of labor-led dynamic technological external economies that ensures the endogenous growth of innovations, underlining the need of reinterpretation of Allyn Young in a broader Kaldorian-Keynesian perspective. In this perspective, finance-led investment in more productive opportunities not only supports increases in market size but also begets further investment in (still) more productive opportunities. This understanding provides a more dynamic conceptualization of Keynesian pecuniary external economies that are driven by Youngian technological external economies.     

Optimal Product Variety and Economic Growth: The Trade-off between Internal and External Economies of Scale

Received July 17, 2000; revised version received February 1, 2001     

The Problems of Transition, EU Enlargement, and Globalization

This paper examines how far the restructuring process toward a market system has proceeded in Transition Economies since the collapse of Communist regimes more than a decade ago, how ready these economies are for admission into the European Union, and how the globalization of the world economy is affecting them. The paper also presents a model of the restructuring process and of international trade during the restructuring process.     

Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth

This article investigates the dynamic interactions among demographic transition, income distribution, and economic growth. Consistent with empirical evidence we show that fertility and income distribution follow an inverted U-shaped dynamics in the process of economic development. In the first stage fertility increases and income inequality widens, whereas in the second stage fertility declines, income becomes more equally distributed, human capital becomes more abundant, and growth of income per capita takes off. The model therefore generates the documented facts about epochs of demographic transition, relying neither on arguments based on near rationality nor on noneconomic objectives.     

Privatization and corruption in transition economies: a panel study

By using three corruption indices, six privatization indicators, and taking the endogeneity problem into consideration, we test the hypothesis that privatization contributes to a decrease in corruption in transition economies. We identified a highly statistically significant and negative association between privatization and corruption in transition economies for three different corruption indices and six different privatization indicators.