中国上市银行的经济增加值及其驱动因素

金融业的全面对外开放使得银行之间的竞争日趋激烈,对中国商业银行经营绩效作出科学评价成为大势所趋。本文选取中国沪深两市14家上市银行作为研究样本,结合银行业的特殊性和中国商业银行的实际情况,对它们的经济增加值（EVA）进行测算,得出中国上市银行经营绩效不容乐观;进一步深入探索EVA潜在驱动因素得出,EVA与资产规模、存货比、资本充足率非显著相关,与外部治理显著正相关,与固定资产比例及不良货款率呈显著负相关。因此中国商业银行应完善内外治理机制,建立以EVA为核心风险管理体系。     

The effects of corporate governance and audit and non-audit fees on IPO Value

This paper examines the effects of non-executive board members, audit committee composition and financial expertise, and fees paid to audit firms on the value of 375 UK initial public offerings (IPOs). Empirical findings show that underpricing decreases in audit fees whereas it increases in non-audit fees. A higher proportion of non-executive directors on the firm’s board and audit committees with a higher proportion of non-executive directors and financial accounting expertise of their members positively moderate the inter-relationships between underpricing and both audit and non-audit fees paid by companies going through an IPO. Further investigations using the adjusted price-to-book value as a proxy for firm value at IPO confirm our main findings that internal governance mechanisms may complement services provided by the auditors in terms of generating higher valuations. Controlling for the simultaneous determination of audit and non-audit fees, our results remain consistent.     

Assessing the Economic Significance of Return Predictability: A Research Note

The predictability of stock returns is often assessed using classical statistical significance from predictive regressions. Statistical inference, however, can belie the economic importance with which investors regard various predictors. This paper examines the influence that predictors have on an investor's optimal portfolio allocations. The results show that return predictability is sufficient to induce horizon effects in optimal allocations. After incorporating estimation risk, however, little evidence of predictability remains. We also assess the relative importance of three predictor variables. While dividend yield is the most important predictor, optimal allocations are also sensitive to the term spread and the relative bill rate.     

保险公司业绩评价:从财务绩效到战略执行

企业业绩评价模式大致经历了财务导向模式、经济价值(内含价值)导向模式和战略执行(平衡计分)评价模式的演变,本文通过对以上三种模式的在保险公司运用的研究,分析了不同评价模式的在保险公司应用的演进脉络与评价重点,提出了按评价目标需求出发的整合评价模式是最佳业绩评价实践的观点.     

European business cycles and stock return predictability

This paper finds that the European leading economic indicator, a prime business cycle indicator for the European economies published by the OECD, can strongly predict European stock returns and generate utility gains. Importantly, the predictive power of the European indicator is above and beyond that contained in the country-specific leading indicator. Furthermore, we find that the predictive power of the European indicator is stable.     

Termination Fees in Mergers and Acquisitions: Protecting Investors or Managers?

Abstract:  Institutional investors closely monitor termination fees in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). We argue that their magnitude reflects either agency problems or efficiency considerations. Focusing on M&A involving Canadian targets between 1997 and 2004, we assess the determinants and market impact of termination fees. Our findings show that the Thomson's SDC Platinum™ Worldwide Mergers & Acquisitions Database underestimates their extent. Results suggest that termination fees are essentially an efficient mechanism as they are relatively higher in M&A with high merger costs, a cash component and expected operating synergies. Stock market returns surrounding the deal announcement do not differ across levels of relative termination fees.     

Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity

Recent empirical evidence suggests that stock market index returns are predictable from a variety of financial and macroeconomic variables. We extend this research by examining value and growth portfolios constructed by book-to-market ratio, and consider whether such predictability is evident here. Further, we assess whether such predictability is better characterised by a non-linear form and whether such non-linear predictability can be exploited to provide superior forecasts to those obtained from a linear model. General non-linearities are examined using non-parametric techniques, which suggest possible threshold behaviour. This leads to estimation of a smooth-transition threshold model, with the results indicating an improved in-sample performance and marginally superior out-of-sample forecast results.     

非审计业务对审计市场绩效的影响——基于会计师事务所业务结构的角度

以审计质量和审计收费作为审计市场绩效的衡量指标,从会计师事务所业务结构角度来考察我国注册会计师行业拓展非审计业务对审计市场所带来的影响。实证检验发现,相对于其他事务所而言,非审计业务规模越大和当年非审计业务规模较上年扩大的事务所,其审计质量越好,审计收费也越高。这说明在目前审计服务市场容量有限,竞争过于激烈的环境下,拓展非审计业务有利于增强审计独立性和提高审计收费,是改善行业执业环境的一个重要途径。     

Can mispricing explain the value premium?

Empirical research finds that stocks with low market-to-book (MTB) ratios outperform stocks with high MTB ratios. Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson, and Viswanathan separate the MTB ratio into mispricing and growth options components. We report that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, predicts abnormal returns for up to 5 years. We also find that the mispricing component, but not the growth options component, provides incremental information relative to existing asset pricing models. Moreover, after controlling for mispricing, value no longer beats growth. Overall, our evidence is consistent with a behavioral explanation of the value premium.     

Termination fees in a 'bright line' jurisdiction

We seek to statistically inform the debate regarding the Australian Takeovers Panel's ‘bright line’ policy towards break fees. Based on 313 takeovers from 2002 to 2006, 85 involving break fees, we find post‐bid competition to be unrelated to break fee usage and inversely related to bid success. We also find that break fee usage has a detrimental effect on shareholder wealth as measured by both the final bid premium and abnormal returns. Therefore, although break fees appear to be neither anticompetitive nor coercive within the Australian context, they do appear to have had a deleterious effect on shareholder wealth.     

Rejoinder to Paul Krugman

We provide a brief rejoinder to Krugman [2008, Response to Nelson and Schwartz. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] on three issues that are central to his original New York Review of Books article and his reply to our setting the record straight: (i) criticisms of Friedman; (ii) criticisms of monetarism; and (iii) interpretations of history.     

Conditional performance evaluation for German equity mutual funds

We investigate the conditional performance of a sample of German equity mutual funds over the period from 1994 to 2003 using both the beta-pricing approach and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework. On average, mutual funds cannot generate excess returns relative to their benchmark that are large enough to cover their total expenses. Compared to unconditional alphas, fund performance sharply deteriorates when we measure conditional alphas. Given that stock returns are to some extent predictable based on publicly available information, conditional performance evaluation raises the benchmark for active fund managers because it gives them no credit for exploiting readily available information. Underperformance is more pronounced in the SDF framework than in beta-pricing models. The fund performance measures derived from alternative model specifications differ depending on the number of primitive assets taken to calibrate the SDF as well as the number of instrument variables used to scale assets and/or factors.     

The cost of being late? The case of credit card penalty fees

This paper is the first in the literature to examine the determinants of US credit card penalty fees. Many critics of credit card fees – including a number of US Senators – have argued that credit card penalty fees reflect banks’ market share. Using a unique data set we find that fees are increasing in customer risk which supports the position of defenders of penalty fees, such as banks. However, our finding that fees are increasing in a bank's market share is consistent with the concerns expressed by politicians and regulators. We also find card penalty fees are direct substitutes for card interest rates.     

Do Big-Four affiliates earn audit fee premiums in emerging markets?

The paper investigates whether Big-Four affiliated (B4A) firms earn audit premiums in an emerging economy context, using Bangladesh as a case. The joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees is also examined using a sample of 122 companies listed in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. Our findings reveal that although the B4A firms do not generally earn a fee premium in Bangladesh, they charge higher audit fees for clients not purchasing non-audit services. This suggests that the B4A firms may actually lower audit fees to attract non-audit services, and cross subsidizes audit fees through non-audit-services fees. The lack of a B4A premium implies that there is lack of quality audit in emerging markets. We also document that audit and non-audit service fees are jointly determined in Bangladesh. Thus, we provide evidence of joint determination of audit and non-audit service fees in an emerging economy context.     

Dividend growth and return predictability: A long-run re-examination of conventional wisdom

We re-examine dividend growth and return predictability evidence using 165 years of data from the Brussels Stock Exchange. The conventional wisdom holds that time-varying dividend yield is predominately explained by changes in expected returns and that expected dividend growth is only weakly forecastable. However, we find robust dividend growth predictability evidence in every time period. A lack of dividend smoothing is the most important reason for the disconnect with previous evidence. Furthermore, we find return predictability in the post-World War II period when we adjust the dividend yields for changing index composition, business cycle variation and structural breaks. This is explained by a simultaneous increase in equity duration, induced by an increasing importance of growth stocks.     

Economic uncertainty: Mispricing and ambiguity premium

We uncover two channels of effect in the financial market when investors face macroeconomic uncertainty. Conditional on a common mispricing index, we find that economic uncertainty exposure (EUE) induces disagreement, which amplifies mispricing. The highest EUE quintile produces an annualised mispricing alpha of 9.96%, more than double the unconditional mispricing effect. An ambiguity premium of 3.84% alpha is documented in the “non-mispricing” quintile. The EUE-induced mispricing effect is different from the existing limits of arbitrage explanations. The ambiguity premium is predictably observed during the unfolding of shocks of COVID-19 to the market.     

Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets

Whilst the existence of long-horizon returns predictability has been a recurrent theme in empirical finance research, extant work has focused almost exclusively on the US, and more recent work has cast doubt over the validity of such potential predictability due to non-stationarity and serial correlation in the data. The present paper examines long-horizon returns predictability in six South-East Asian markets in the context of unit root tests conducted under corrections for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The analysis conducted also extends the investigation of long-horizon predictability to the non-linear setting, and examines whether any detected non-linear predictability is consistent with behavioural approaches to asset pricing which emphasise the role of noise traders. The results obtained suggest the following conclusions. First, long-horizon predictability is present in each of the six South-East Asian markets considered. Second, whilst forecast power increases with horizon, for the majority of series it is maximised for forecast horizons of between 12 and 48 months. Third, non-linear predictability is reported for all series, suggesting that positive and negative values of the (demeaned) dividend yield impart different levels of predictability for returns at different forecast horizons. However, there is no consistency in the pattern of non-linearity reported, and whilst the observed patterns are consistent with noise traders models for some of the markets considered, this is not true of all the markets considered. Nevertheless, the non-linear dynamics detected are suggestive of potential market inefficiencies in all six cases.     

Corporate social responsibility and the assessment by auditors of the risk of material misstatement

This paper investigates whether, and how, firms’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance influences the auditor's assessment of the risk of material misstatement, whether due to fraud or error, at the financial statement level by analysing their pricing decision (i.e., audit fees). Using a panel data set of 12,330 firms from 28 countries over the period 2003–2012 and different measures of CSR performance, we find a U‐shaped relationship between firms’ CSR performance and audit fees. This result suggests that there is an optimal level of CSR performance that minimizes the auditor's assessment of the risk of material misstatement, which in turn lowers the need for greater auditor effort; that is why auditors charge firms significantly less when their CSR performance is at the optimal level. Finally, we also show that the optimal level of CSR performance varies with the degree of environmental dynamism, ownership concentration and leverage.     

The pricing of audit and non-audit services in a regulated environment: a longitudinal study of the UK life insurance industry

This paper studies the relationship between audit and non-audit service fees paid to the statutory auditor by UK life insurance firms, utilising an extensive panel-data sample set for the period 1999–2009. Consistent with a knowledge spillover (impairment of independence) hypothesis, we predict and find that audit fees are positively (negatively) associated with actuarial (tax service) fees. Additionally, our results indicate that regulatory changes enforced after 2004 deterred UK life insurance firms from purchasing non-audit services that are perceived to impair auditor independence. Finally, we find evidence concerning the inter-temporal determination of audit fees.