ACCOUNTING FOR NONMARKET HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION WITHIN A NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK

The satellite accounts illustrated in this paper reflect the household's role as a producer and an investor in durables as well as a consumer by modifying the NIPA's to (1) incorporate the value of nonmarket (unpaid) household work into GDP; and (2) treat expenditures on consumer durables as investment and measure the value of the services those durables provide. Additionally, an Input–Output (I–O) model highlights the household's functions as a producer and investor in much greater detail for the year 1992 by incorporating a household industry for each time-use activity and by showing the inputs to and outputs from each household industry's production.     

THE REAL RATE OF U.S. NATIONAL SAVING

The conventional measure of national saving in U.S. accounts does not include saving in consumer durables, public investment, or intangible capital. It reflects a measure of net foreign investment that relates in considerable part to original cost rather than market values. It also does not include real capital gains.
Comprehensive, adjusted measures of national saving are calculated for as many of the years from 1946 to 1989 as relevant components are available. They generally suggest much larger rates of national saving than are usually recognized. They also cast a sharp and substantially different light on the likely effects of policies designed to increase provision for the future.     

MEASURING THE STOCK OF CONSUMER DURABLES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR EURO AREA SAVINGS RATIOS

The purpose of this article is to estimate the impact of capitalizing durable goods on the euro area household saving ratios and disposable incomes for the first time. The reason for this exercise is twofold. Firstly, it is generally accepted that individual households regard consumer durables as assets even though they are not treated as such in the System of National Accounts 1993 . Secondly, the issue is related to the definition of household saving ratios. For instance, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board publishes three household saving measures. The main difference between these saving ratios is that one is derived by treating expenditure on consumer durables as investments while the other two are compiled by considering them to be household final consumption expenditure. We find that the effect of capitalizing consumer durables on EA saving ratios is moderate. The impact is lower than it is in the U.S.     

NATIONAL AND SECTOR BALANCE SHEETS IN CONCEPT AND IN PRACTICE

National and Sector Balance Sheets are playing an increasingly important role in economic analysis. This article reviews the actual and potential applications and considers whether there is a case for modifying SNA practice and recommendations to increase the value of the contribution that balance sheets can make to analytical work.
The major sections of the article relate respectively to financial and non-financial items in national and sector balance sheets. In the context of financial items, there is discussion of the perception of what constitutes an individual's total financial portfolio and therefore which items should be included or excluded when assessing the financial assets of the household sector (e.g. various forms of pension entitlement and life assurance). The relevance of marketability is considered as is the possibility of attempting to identify a separate domestic households sub-sector. The other main topic considered in relation to financial balance sheets is the relevance of adopting a single approach to valuation; alternatives are considered in relation to the stock of public sector debt.
So far as non-financial assets are concerned, difficulties arise with the national accounting practice of treating the acquisition of consumer durables and military assets as current expenditure. While it is considered, on balance, best to continue to treat the purchase of consumer durables as current expenditure, though recording the value of the stock of durables outside the main body of balance sheets, it is recommended that "non-fighting" assets such as transport ships and aircraft and hospitals should be treated as capital assets. The treatment of sub-soil assets and the valuation of fixed assets is also discussed.
Reconciling balance sheets with flows data is an essential step if balance sheets are to be fully exploited; some comments are offered on the UN guidelines on this topic.     

ACCOUNTING FOR HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: A PROTOTYPE SATELLITE ACCOUNT USING THE AMERICAN TIME USE SURVEY

This paper presents a satellite account where households are treated as production units. It extends previous work that treats consumer durables as investment and that values nonmarket household production activities such as cooking, cleaning, and childcare. Services from consumer durables and government capital related to household production are also valued. In constructing the updated accounts, this paper incorporates new time use data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the harmonized time use data from the Multinational Time Use Study (MTUS). This paper also discusses and incorporates recommendations made by the U.S. National Academies panel on nonmarket accounts.     

Forecasting Canadian consumption using the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (DGLES)

This paper uses the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System (Dgles) to: 1. study the behaviour of the Canadian consumer; and 2. provide ex postforecasts of consumption expenditures by commodity group. The model is estimated for seven commodity groups (durables, food, fuel, gasoline, other non-durables, semi-durables and services) using quarterly data covering the period 1961.I–1978.IV. The method of estimation is the full information maximum likelihood routine, and the ex postforecasts are provided for the period 1979.I–1981.IV.     

IS JAPAN'S HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE REALLY HIGH?

This paper discusses, and measures the quantitative impact of, a number of conceptual issues relating to the household saving rate data in the National Accounts of Japan. It finds that Japan's seemingly high household saving rate is biased due to the exclusion of capital transfers and real capital gains, the valuation of depreciation at historical cost rather than at replacement cost, the use of a residual measure of financial saving rather than Flow of Funds Accounts data thereon, and the treatment of expenditures on consumer durables as consumption rather than as saving, but that the biases are to a considerable extent mutually offsetting. It also finds that the Japan-U.S. gap in household (personal) saving rates is due largely to conceptual differences and deficiencies and that household saving in Japan consists primarily of financial saving (net lending), meaning that most of it is available to finance investment in other sectors of the economy and/or abroad.     

Estimating the geographic diffusion of the videocassette recorder market

The majority of studies concerning diffusion or product growth of consumer durables have treated the U.S. market as a whole and have applied the diffusion model on the assumption that the market exhibits a homogeneous response in its diffusion process. If the market is heterogeneous, however, an aggregate model entails a misspecification problem which could adversely affect the applicability and efficiency of the model. A modeling framework is developed for analyzing the diffusion process in a possibly heterogeneous market. Empirical analysis using data on the videocassette recorder (VCR) market reveals that the modeling framework captures to a fair extent heterogeneous diffusion processes across different regions in the U.S. market. Managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Unexpected Share Repurchase Announcements

Abstract

Open-market stock repurchase announcements are generally perceived by the stock market as a signal of firm undervaluation. Our study shows that repurchase announcements that were preceded by SEOs of other firms in the same industry within the prior six months (namely SEO-RPs) are more likely the result of lacking investment opportunities than signaling undervaluation, especially in concentrated industries. Specifically, we find investors response negatively to SEO-RP announcements while react positively to regular repurchase announcements. The higher the intensity of SEO activities in the industry, the more negative market reaction to SEO-RP announcements. We argue that the market doesn’t expect a repurchase announcement when other rival firms are raising more capital via SEOs. These SEO-RPs represent a negative surprise to the market and lead to a downward adjustment in value of the repurchasing firms in the announcement window. In the three-year post-announcement periods, the SEO-RP firms underperform regular repurchasing firms in both stock return and operating performance. Moreover, while regular repurchasing firms gradually increase their capital expenditures, SEO-RP firms significantly reduce their capital expenditures. These findings support our arguments that repurchase announcements that immediately follow SEOs of rival firms (SEO-RPs) more likely indicate the announcing firms entering a slower growth rate with fewer investment opportunities than signal the undervaluation problem. The underperformance in stock return and operation combined with a significant reduction in capital expenditures in the post-announcement periods are consistent with this logic and also explain why the market reacts negatively to SEO-RP announcements.     

THE SUBSTITUTION OF SELF-SERVICE ACTIVITIES FOR MARKETED SERVICES

This paper is divided into two parts. In the first part the consequences of permanent differences in the rates of productivity growth between economic activities are dealt with. Special attention is given to the substitution of self-service activities for marketed services. The former are tentatively defined as activities carried out outside the market having the following principal inputs: consumer's time, industrial products (mainly durables), and energy. The emergence of self-service activities challenges the conventional division of man's time into work for market and leisure, which should be replaced by a more detailed breakdown. Consumers’preference for self-service results mainly from high taxation, high real wages and equality in the distribution of personal income. Because of the growth of self-service activities in industrialized countries a non-negligible part of the population's productive effort will be difficult to record, since it will neither appear on the market nor have market value. The need to record self-service activities would be most strongly felt in statistics on private consumption, but would also have consequences in the measurement of the nation's welfare. One should make a distinction between consumption of marketed services and their self-service substitutes in order to provide information on the complementarity of the energy, time and material inputs into various self-service activities and on the substitutability between them and marketed services. This could perhaps be done with the help of extended commodity-private expenditure matrices. The recording as well as the valuation of non-market working time would probably cause great difficulties. Self-service activities are also becoming sufficiently important to warrant their inclusion in the debate on the measurement of the nation's productive effort and of the nation's welfare. But any recording of self-service activities would be a controversial measure since it would require recourse to imputations on a large scale.     

THE TREATMENT OF “HOME OWNERSHIP” IN THE CPI*

This paper explores the imputed service price approach to the pricing of the services of consumer-owned-and-used durables in the construction of the consumer price index, using the services of owner-occupied housing as an illustration. A theoretical framework for analyzing this question is first developed. Certain practical problems are then discussed. The conceptual difficulty of constructing an appropriate rate of return on the basis of available data on interest rates and house prices, in the context of inflation, is explored. Two arguments are advanced that statistical agencies ought not to follow the imputed service price approach in pricing the services of owner-occupied dwellings and other consumer durables. On the one hand, nominal interest rates will, in any short period, reflect monetary policy and not any change in the money “rental” of owner-occupied houses. Second, movements in nominal interest rates will also reflect changes in the money price of pure consumption goods, as well as changes in the money price of houses. The argument is extended to other consumer durables and, in the limiting case, to monetary balances, and it is concluded that in all but trivial cases the application of the service price approach leads to price movements of little or no meaning.     

Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach

This study aims to analyse the effects of the consumer confidence on economic activity for the US market. We use the empirical factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) method, which enables us to incorporate a wide range of economic activity factors into the analysis. The consumer confidence index (CCI) is chosen as the principal variable that is presumed to represent the degree of optimism on the state of economic activity. The results show that consumer confidence and economic activity are strongly correlated for manufacturing-related factors, such as industrial production and inventories. We also observe strong relation among CCI and personal consumption expenditures, as well as housing market variables.     

Dynamic Costs of the Draft

Abstract. We propose a dynamic general‐equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social work). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility.     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

Trade,structure and linkages in Costa Rica: An input-output approach

Input-output tables for Costa Rica are used first to assess the country's trade performance; it is argued that trade with the rest of Central America has produced a Costa Rican comparative advantage in consumer durables. The paper then uses the input–output tables to examine the economy's structure, which is shown to be block triangular. Finally, measures of linkages are derived from the tables and a critique of the growth-inducing linkage mechanism is presented.     

Capital structure,asset utilization,profitability and growth in the Greek manufacturing sector

Greece's accession to the European Union (EU) has affected its economy and its manufacturing sector. Large-size enterprises (LSEs) form a small but vital part of Greek manufacturing and constitute a major component of the country's stock market. According to finance theory, the capital structure of a firm affects its capital cost and market value. This paper, by using dynamic panel data techniques, investigates the determinants of capital structure of LSEs in the Greek manufacturing sector. The findings suggest that asset utilization, gross and net profitability and total assets growth have a significant effect on the capital structure of LSEs. This has straightforward policy implications. Following recent economic developments, Greek firms are exposed to a stronger competition in the EU and global markets, but also to new opportunities. In order to improve their capital structure, Greek manufacturing LSEs need to achieve higher asset utilization and profit margins through economies of scale attained mainly by higher exports. Moreover, governmental measures aiming to support LSEs' efforts should focus their impact on alleviating taxation, reducing bureaucratic burdens, minimizing market imperfections and subsidizing applications of new technology.     

IMPROVING THE ANALYTICAL AND DATA FRAMEWORK OF THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR FOR NATIONAL GOALS ACCOUNTING*

Provision of “market goods” follows the decision rules of traditional microeconomics; pricing and resource allocation for such goods tend towards Pareto optimality. The provision of “collective goods,” by contrast, depends on political (or quasi-political) collective decision processes; beneficiaries often receive a share of collective goods free of charge or well below average or marginal (private or social) costs. No inherent tendency towards optimality may be presumed and separate analysis of collective goods becomes an essential part of national goals accounting. The national-income-accounts (NIA) distinction between personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and government purchases of goods and services corresponds roughly to a division between market goods bought by the consumer and a major category of “collective goods” (i.e. “public goods” provided by government). However, a significant proportion of PCE represents “collective goods” paid for by government, business, or nonprofit organizations and provided on behalf of the consumer, whereas a part of NIA government purchases represents services paid for by the consumer (i.e. “market goods”). This article develops operationally meaningful distinctions among “market goods,”“collective goods,” and “tied aid” (a mixed category with market-good and collective-good characteristics). These distinctions are determined by the nature of the decision processes–rather than by the characteristics of the beneficiary or the supplier. This classification is related to the national income accounts and major discrepancies are pinpointed. The blurring of the distinction among market goods, collective goods and tied aid is found to be most consequential in the NIA treatment of “education” and “medical care” services. NIA data for these two services are restructured for national goals accounting purposes in order to illustrate both the quantitative importance and the empirical feasibility of classifying benefits by their respective decision processes.     

Intangible Investment and Market Valuation

This study derives performance‐ and expenditure‐based estimates of intangible capital and measures the extent to which intangible capital is captured by the equity market measures of firm value. Intangible capital is evaluated using occupational information available in the Finnish linked employer–employee data for the 1997–2011 period. The performance‐based organizational investment in value added is approximately 3 percent; R&D and ICT investment shares are lower, at 1.5 percent, and all are clustered in intangible‐intensive sectors that represent 40 percent of the private sector. Expenditure‐based organizational capital also exists in clusters other than that intensively investing in managerial and marketing effort, and performance‐based R&D capital is concentrated in the cluster with intensive R&D activity; both increase the market value of firms beyond the level that can be explained by standard economic analysis.     

The cost of natural capital consumption: Accounting for a sustainable world economy

The System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been criticized in this journal for ignoring the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being. This paper argues that extended national accounts should not attempt measuring economic welfare. Rather, they could and should assess the environmental sustainability of economic activity as the cost of natural capital consumption. The global application of SEEA concepts and methods demonstrates the feasibility of international green accounting. For the world economy, sustainability costs run to about 3 trillion US$ or 6% of world GDP. Large variations at national and regional levels suggest that conventional economic indicators may significantly overstate economic progress in some parts of the world. Data gaps and lack of data comparability affect these first estimates. National and international statistical services should be more aggressive in greening the national accounts. More prudent and more sustainable economic policies might be the result.     

Monetary policy in a small open economy with durable goods and differing cash-in-advance constraints

We consider the effects of inflation in a small open economy when expenditures on non-durables are more heavily financed with money than expenditures on durables. The distinctions between non-durables and durables, and asymmetric cash-in-advance constraints give rise to important dynamics.