Efficiency of online football betting markets

This paper evaluates the efficiency of online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach for formally testing the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of differing degrees of efficiency among markets. We show that, if the best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three show inefficiencies that imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odds thresholds that could be used to set profitable betting strategies both ex post and ex ante.     

Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets

The betting markets for totals in college football and arena football provide additional evidence of bettor preference for scoring. The results for college football and arena football markets are similar to those found in the professional football and professional basketball totals market. In all of these leagues, the overs are overbet. We suggest that there is a clear preference for bettors to bet the over and the extent of the bias depends upon the volume of uninformed bettors to informed bettors and limits placed on bets in these markets.     

Revealing transactions data to third parties: Implications of privacy regimes for welfare in online markets

We examine the effects of privacy policies regarding transactions (e.g., price/quantity) data on online shopping platforms. Disclosure of transactions data induces consumer signaling behavior that affects merchant pricing decisions and the welfare of platform participants. A profit‐maximizing platform prefers the disclosure policy that maximizes total welfare. Although this policy benefits sophisticated consumers, it harms unsophisticated (myopic) consumers. Consequently, the welfare effects of alternative privacy policies, data breaches, deceptive privacy policies, and opt‐in/opt‐out requirements can differ sharply, depending on the level of consumer sophistication and on other factors such as the prevailing status quo.     

审计要为规范市场经济秩序服务

一、统一思想,深化认识,努力使审计执法工作更好地为整顿和规范市场经济秩序服务.一是在思想上,要从大局出发,把促进整顿和规范市场经济秩序作为审计工作的一项义不容辞的职责和义务,寓监督与服务之中,努力为发展经济创造良好的环境;二是在审计工作指导思想上,要认真按照<中共襄樊市委、襄樊市人民政府关于进一步创造和优化经济发展环境的决定>和<中共襄樊市委、襄樊市人民政府关于对污染经济环境行为实行一票处罚制的决定>文件精神;三是在审计工作目标的定位上,要从宏观着眼,从微观入手,规范管理,提高质量,以严格执法,强化监督为手段,治理、整顿、规范市场经济秩序,促进经济健康有序快速发展;四是在审计工作的组织管理和考核上,要以协调统一、强化管理、规范程序、依法审计和防范风险为原则,以实际工作效果作为衡量、评价、考核审计工作的尺度.     

A mechanism for thawing the credit markets

This paper describes a mechanism designed to induce commercial banks to increase their willingness to extend loans in an economic environment characterized by increased uncertainty and diminished expectations. This mechanism is a new tool for the conduct of monetary policy to combat recessions.     

Implicit markets and the demand for housing characteristics

Important methodological problems in applying Rosen's (1974) model of implicit markets to housing characteristics are inadequately addressed in the literature. This paper summarizes these methodological issues and discusses advantages and disadvantages of various means of coping with these problems in empirical applications. Structural housing characteristics demand estimates are presented, along with an assessment of their accuracy. The results generally are insensitive to specification choices, suggesting the findings are plausible.     

Valuation of ticket prices for first-division football matches in the Spanish league

This paper measures the optimal prices of football tickets and investigates the pricing strategy of the first-division teams in the Spanish league during the 2018/2019 season. The paper develops a dual hybrid model of supply and demand based on a hedonic price approach. Fans have multiple motivations to attend the stadium, such as the quality of the opposing teams, the pre-match qualifying position, the schedule, the day of the match, the stadium facilities, and the atmosphere. Their final decision will be conditioned by the price set by the clubs. The data show a difference of almost 300% in ticket prices among clubs. The estimation results from a hedonic price equation reveal that an optimal pricing strategy is followed by only five out of 20 clubs in the league. We also quantify the percentage of overvaluation or undervaluation of ticket prices.     

General equilibrium in markets for lemons

This paper studies exchange economies in which agents have differential information about the goods that the other agents bring to the market. To study such a setting, it is useful to distinguish goods not only by their physical characteristics, but also by the agent that brings them to the market. Equilibrium is shown to exist, with agents receiving the cheapest bundle among those that they cannot distinguish from the truthful delivery. An example is presented as an illustration.     

A topological invariant for competitive markets

This paper summarizes the concepts of global cones and limited arbitrage introduced in Chichilnisky (Economic Theory, 1995, 5, 79–108), and the corresponding results establishing that limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of a competitive equilibrium and for the compactness of Pareto frontier (announced in Chichilnisky (American Economic Review, 1992, 84, 427–434, and Chichilnisky (Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 1993, 29, 189–207). Using the same global cones I extend my earlier results to encompass ‘mixed economies’ based on Chichilnisky (CORE Discussion Paper No. 9527, 1995). I introduce a topological invariant for competitive markets which deepens the concept of limited arbitrage. This invariant encodes exact information on the equilibria and on the social diversity of the economy and all its subeconomies, and predicts a failure of effective demand.     

Uncertainty and markets for renewable resources

The market allocation of renewable resources is examined when growth rates are affected by random disturbances. Given free access to a renewable resource, environmental disturbances are shown to affect the biological survival of the resource. The optimal solution is then examined and it is shown to be achieved by a competitive allocation when property rights are clearly defined given rational expectations or a complete set of contingent futures markets. The stochastic dynamics are shown in each case to differ considerably from the deterministic model.     

A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football

The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed 2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named ‘Generalised Attacking Performance’ (GAP) ratings, are defined which measure the attacking and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their profitability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than the number of goals. An average profit of around 0.8 percent per bet taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy.     

A simple proof of the equivalence theorem for oligopolistic mixed markets

In a rather long and complicated way Shitovitz proved that in mixed markets with at least two large traders all of the same ‘type’, all core allocations are competitive. We provide a simple and short proof for this important result. Unlike Shitovitz, we do not prove directly this equivalence. Rather, we first show that the core of an oligopolistic market coincides with the core of the atomless market derived by splitting the atoms into a continuum of traders. We then apply Aumann's Equivalence Theorem to this atomless market, whose set of competitive equilibria coincides with that of the original mixed market.     

Bounds for the utility-indifference prices of non-traded assets in incomplete markets

Abstract We consider a special class of financial models with both traded and non-traded assets and show that the utility indifference (bid) price of a contingent claim on a non-traded asset is bounded above by the expectation under the minimal martingale measure. This bound also represents the marginal bid price for the claim. The key conclusion is that the bound and the marginal bid price are independent of both the utility function and initial wealth of the agent. Thus all utility maximising agents charge the same marginal price for the claim. This conclusion is in some sense the opposite conclusion to that of Hubalek and Schachermayer (2001), who show that any price is consistent with some equivalent martingale measure. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B28, 91B16, 60J70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G13     

Team performance: the case of English Premiership football

Sporting production function studies have been almost entirely US based concentrating largely, although not exclusively, on baseball. Mainly due to a dearth of match play statistics, there have been few studies of other sports, with that of association football being a significant omission given the sport's international appeal and global coverage. This study attempts to redress the balance by utilizing a new data source, containing information on a range of specific play variables, to estimate a production function for English Premiership football. Our results emphasize the key attacking and defensive skills, and provide support for the notion that teams may intentionally employ dubious or illegal tactics to succeed. The inclusion of team effects provides evidence consistent with the view of the emergence of an elite group of clubs dominating the league. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency of markets for heterogeneous,indivisible housing

A rental housing market with a finite number of traders is presented. Tenants trade money to landlords for the use of an indivisible, heterogeneous house. Equilibrium is defined as the outcome of a competitive bidding arrangement among agents, the bid rent approach. Using this bidding arrangement, the two fundamental welfare theorems are shown to apply to this market. The second welfare theorem is verified via an algorithm which constructs equilibrium prices for Pareto-efficient allocations.     

The role of startups for local labor markets

There are substantial differences in startup activity across US local labor markets. We study the causes and consequences of these differences. Startup productivity shocks are found to drive much of these cross-city differences in startup activity. Examples of such shocks include breakthroughs in biotech that spurred startup formation in San Diego and Philadelphia. Overall, these shocks explain half of the forecast error variance of startup job creation, accounting for 40% of population growth and long-run changes in employment. Shocks to barriers to firm entry have economy-wide effects similar to those of startup productivity shocks but operate largely through the number of startups, rather than their size. We use a novel spatial panel vector autoregression, identifying shocks using shift–share external instruments.     

Comparative statics in markets for indivisible goods

This paper builds upon Caplin and Leahy (2014), which introduced a new mathematical apparatus for understanding allocation markets with nontransferable utility, as such covering the housing market and other markets for large indivisible goods. In the current paper we complete the study of comparative statics initiated therein. We introduce homotopy methods to characterize how equilibrium changes in response to arbitrary parameter changes. Generically, we show that there can be five and only five qualitatively distinct forms of market transition: Graft; Prune and Plant; Prune and Graft; Cycle and Reverse; and Shift and Replant. Our path-following methods identify new algorithms for computing market equilibria.