Money demand in an open-economy shopping-time model: an out-of-sample-prediction application to Canada

This paper contributes to the existing money demand literature by developing a shopping-time model in an open economy framework. Based on this microfoundations-of-money model, Canadian quarterly time series data for the period 1971:1–1997:2 are used to evaluate the out-of-sample prediction performance of the model. The results show that an error-correction representation of the model performs significantly better than several unrestricted and traditional open- and closed-economy models in the out-of-sample prediction of Canadian real M1 demand.Keywords: Money demand; Open-economy shopping-time model; Out-of-sample predictionJEL classification: E41; F41.     

Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization

This paper builds a three‐sector DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, considering explicitly the interactions among regular, underground and criminal sectors. We generated quarterly data for unobserved variables for Italian economy over the sample 1974:01–2011:02, through Monte Carlo simulations, and we found that underground economy is about 20 per cent of GDP, whereas criminal economy is 11 per cent. The dynamic behavior of the model shows that (1) regular production has a greater relative volatility with respect to unobserved production, (2) an efficient law enforcement activity is able to weaken unobserved activities and (3) unobserved sectors' variables exhibit a negative correlation with the corresponding ones of regular economy.     

The U.S. Carpet Industry: History,Industry Dynamics,and a Simple Model for Short-Term Forecasting

This article presents a simple model that can be used to assess the current situation of the carpet industry and develop a short-term outlook for it. Using quarterly data over the time period 1999:Q1–2016:Q2, we build a regression model of U.S. carpet industry shipments. We find that the recent leveling-off of shipments is likely to persist. While housing recovery will aid the demand for carpeting, increases in income are likely to be offsetting, as the switch to alternative floor coverings will be ongoing.     

Cointegration,unbiased expectations,and forecasting in the BIFFEX freight futures market

The relationship between freight cash and futures prices is investigated using cointegration econometrics. Results illustrate that the BIFFEX futures market is unbiased, and hence efficient for the current, one, two, and quarterly contract horizons. Since the futures contract is based on an index of various shipping routes, which has undergone several changes since its inception, stability in the relationship between the spot and futures rates is investigated using rolling cointegration techniques. Results indicate that the futures contract appears to have become more efficient over time in predicting the spot rate, and that the decrease in trading volume found in the BIFFEX market is not driven by a lack of efficiency in this market. Rather, the decrease in futures trading might be attributed to the growth rate of the freight forward market. This article incorporates the long‐run cointegrating relationships between cash and futures prices in a forecasting model and compares the forecasting performance of this model with several alternatives. It is found that while the futures price is the best predictor of future spot rates for the current‐month contract, time‐series models can outperform the futures contract at longer contract horizons. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:545–571, 2000.     

利率管制、金融扭曲与投资效率

本文认为我国存在正规与非正规的二元金融体系,二者的利率水平不同,央行的利率管制是导致这种金融扭曲的一个主要原因。通过构建两个部门、两种金融资本的经济模型,得出正规金融市场中利率水平的提高有助于改善这种扭曲的金融结构,减少非正规金融,并且提高投资效率的结论。我国1986年到2008年的时间序列模型和1995到2008年的省际面板数据模型证实了此观点,说明利率市场化是我国深化金融改革的必然选择。     

基于Copula理论的金融资产传染效应研究

某一突发性金融事件可能使整个金融市场间的联动程度显著增强,并对一定区域乃至世界范围的经济体系产生传染效应。对此,采用Copula函数方法,通过t-GARCH(1,1)模型对资产收益时序进行过滤,运用非参数估计,分析多变量之间相关结构及尾部相关性的变化进而考察变量间的传染效应。通过对美国次贷危机前后多国证券市场的实证分析,结果表明次贷危机后,美国标准普尔指数与代表性的亚洲证券市场间的联动性显著加强,次贷危机对亚洲股市存在传染效应。     

我国税收政策对经济增长的非线性效应研究——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析

全面分析与科学把握我国税收政策方向与节奏不仅事关政府宏观调控与驾驭经济能力的提升,更是实现有质量、有效益、可持续经济增长的关键。文章首先基于创新驱动经济增长的内生增长模型构建税收对经济增长影响的理论分析框架,然后采用MS-VAR模型与利用中国季度数据,从总量与结构双重视角实证考察我国税收政策对经济增长的影响,结果发现：一是当处于区制1时,无论是税收的总量抑或结构效应,均表现出非凯恩斯主义特征,但并不显著;二是当位于区制2时,税收对经济增长的总量影响表现为凯恩斯效应,而商品税与所得税对经济增长的影响存在显著差异。其中商品税与经济增长正相关,所得税与经济增长负相关。另外无论是税收的总量效应抑或结构效应,在继续维持各自区制内的稳定性方面表现都非常强,从一个区制向另一个区制发生转换的概率非常小。文章研究结论对于创新政府宏观调控方式与增强税收政策调控的前瞻性、针对性与有效性具有非常重要的理论与实际意义。     

The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching

This study focuses on the current account deficit dynamics and sustainability, using data of the period between 1990:Q1 and 2014:Q2 in the context of Turkish economy. The main findings of the study can be put into two categories. The first category covers energy consumption, openness rate, gross domestic product, exchange rate and investments, which are the most important determinants of the current deficit. The second one asserts that sustainability is weak for Turkish economy; however, it is even weaker during the economic contraction. There is extensive literature about structure and sustainability of the current account deficit. However, many of the studies have analysed the sustainability of the current account deficits without considering the economic conjuncture. For this purpose, the study employs the Markov-switching method which is a non-linear time series model.     

FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

在开放经济条件下,外商直接投资（FDI）、出口贸易和经济增长的关系一直是国内外学者研究的热点。运用向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济学方法,采用1997年至2013年的所有季度数据,对FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,得出外商直接投资、出口贸易对我国经济增长具有显著的促进作用的结论,因此,今后我国应进一步加强对FDI的产业导向,积极优化外贸环境、改善外贸结构以引进外商直接投资。     

2004年我国税收与经济增长的协调关系

2004年我国税收总收入比上年增长25．7％。增收额和增长幅度均实现历史性新突破。税收收入快速增长，使国家财力进一步增强，为支持经济社会发展作出了积极贡献。但与此同时人们对税收连年超经济增长，也存在不少疑虑。本文从经济总量、产业结构角度，并运用时间序列模型等，讨论分析了税收与经济增长的协调性及关系。     

Three Simple Techniques to Analyze a Complex Economic Phenomenon: The Case of Profits

This paper seeks to characterize the behavior of profits over the business cycle as a model for analyzing any economic series by a practicing business economist. It addresses three fundamental questions about profits that are common and critical to identifying the behavior of any macroeconomic series—mean-reversion, volatility, and trend. First, does profit growth over time exhibit mean-reverting behavior? Second, how volatile are profits, and does this volatility obscure the message of average profit growth? Third, how can we estimate a long-run trend growth component for profits and thereby separate profit cycles from its long-run trend growth component?     

Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis

We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence–low infectiousness event and a low virulence–high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions.     

美国经济波动影响中国经济的国际传导机制分析

作为世界上最大经济体的美国,其经济波动必然会对其它国家产生影响。利用1999—2009年的季度数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型以及H—P滤波分析法,研究发现:中国对美国出口贸易对中美经济波动经过半年的传导时滞后,会有明显的传导作用,并且大约持续一年半左右,之后的传导作用并不明显;中国从美国进口贸易对中美经济波动的传导作用会有一年的传导时滞,之后会有为期半年的传导作用,但其传导作用明显低于中国对美国出口贸易的传导作用;美国对华直接投资和中国对美直接投资对中美经济波动的传导作用无论在短期还是在长期都不显著。     

Foreign trade and economic growth: time series evidence from Latin America

This paper extends our understanding of the relationship between trade and growth by emphasizing time series evidence rather than the more traditional aggregate cross-section evidence from past studies. Cross-section studies obscure intercountry differences and sacrifice revealing information about dynamic behaviors within countries. Also, the nonstationary nature of many time series makes the use of period averages inappropriate. The use of time series data introduces other difficulties, however, and our analysis pays close attention to the possibility of spurious regressions, nonstationarity and cointegrating relationships among variables. Seventeen Latin American economies are examined, and a mixture of model forms must be applied to deal with the variety of temporal behaviors. The results confirm a positive relationship between export growth and aggregate economic growth over time for the majority of the seventeen countries.     

全球金融危机爆发的原因及其对中国经济的影响

美国次贷危机引发了肆掠全球的金融危机,其直接原因是美国国内的产业、金融政策错误,以及华尔街的贪婪与金融监管失误,而深层次原因是全球经济失衡与技术创新的周期性。本文应用时间序列模型验证了美国经济衰退对中国对美出口的显著影响,使用GTAP模型估算了全球经济衰退对中国经济的影响,结果显示:纺织、石化、电子等中国主要出口行业产出增长将进一步大幅下降。建议我国通过调整收入分配结构、扶持民营企业发展以扩大内需,并走创新发展道路,以应对危机下世界经济衰退的挑战。     

The components of interest rate swap spreads: Theory and international evidence

This article contains both a theoretical and an empirical analysis of the components of interest rate swap spreads defined as the difference between the fixed swap rate and the risk‐free rate of equal maturity. The components are determined by expected LIBOR spreads, default risk, and market structure. A model of the swap market incorporating debt market imperfections and corporate financing choices is used to explain participation by both swap buyers and sellers. The model also motivates an empirical relationship between swap spreads and the slope of the risk‐free term structure. The article then provides empirical evidence on the cross‐sectional and time‐series variation of swap spreads in seven international markets. The evidence is consistent with the suggested components across both markets and swap maturities as well as over time. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:347–387, 2003     

我国出口贸易对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文分别利用1983-2003年的年度数据和1995-2004年的季度数据,运用协整检验及Granger因果检验等方法对我国出口贸易对经济增长的影响进行双变量和多变量的实证分析,结果显示,我国出口与经济增长之间不存在长期稳定的动态均衡关系,但是它们之间存在互为因果的反馈性联系,说明我国现阶段的经济增长是出口导向型的,文章对产生这种现象的原因进行了解释并且给出了相应的政策建议。     

Product life cycle patterns for pharmaceuticals and their impact on R&D profitability of late mover products

This study describes a cross-sectional and time series analysis of sales data over one decade in four major segments of the market for cardiovascular drugs. We estimate over 200 product life cycles (PLC) using a very flexible mathematical model to account for a variety of PLC shapes. Life cycles are then clustered on the basis of estimated regression coefficients. As a result this analysis leads to the detection of an international PLC classification. Moreover, it turns out that the order of entry is not only crucial to achieve a certain market share level but also to the shape of the drug life cycle and therefore for the long-term economic evaluation of innovative products. The paper provides the initial findings on this subject through a simulation study which is in line with previous research designs and shows the impact of the PLC shape on the net present value (NPV).     

全球经济政策不确定性的演变趋势：基于EMD-ARIMA模型的预测分析

作为经济政策变动的风向标，全球经济政策不确定性（Global Economic Policy Uncertainty，GEPU）指数的动态走势对于经济政策的制定和调整具有重要的参考价值。然而GEPU指数动态路径的影响因素复杂多变，其数据生成过程难以在一个时间序列模型中得到准确的体现。基于“先分解后集成”的建模思路，首先采用经验模态分解（Empirical mode decomposition，EMD）方法将全球经济政策不确定性指数分解为若干相互独立、频率不同的可读信号，其次运用非平稳时间序列ARIMA模型对可读信号分别进行建模预测，最后集成各类可读信号的预测结果。在此基础上，进一步应用VAR模型考察了全球贸易、新冠疫情等因素对GEPU指数的动态影响。研究发现：(1)通过对训练组和测试组数据的预测值与真实值的对比，发现EMD-ARIMA模型对训练组和测试组数据的拟合精度均优于ARIMA模型；(2)与ARIMA模型相比，EMD-ARIMA 模型能够解决由原始数据不确定性、非线性以及不稳定性所导致预测偏差问题，得到精度较高的预测结果；(3)全球贸易、新冠肺炎疫情等因素对全球经济政策不确定性均产生了显著的影响，EMD-ARIMA模型的样本外预测结果显示，GEPU指数在2021年7月之前呈增加趋势，2021年7月至12月逐渐趋于稳定。     

沪深两市股指时间序列突变点贝叶斯检测模型研究

股指时间序列突变点的检测是股指波动规律研究领域中的一个重要问题。依据贝叶斯原理提出的突变点检测分析模型,用Matlab工具软件对该模型进行了仿真,并且在实证分析中应用该模型分别对上证综合指数和深证成份指数月度时间序列数据进行了突变点检测分析,准确地确定了两市的突变点,和相应的后验概率分布,并解释了突变点形成的经济和政策背景。