New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) was developed as a response to the New Classical critique that Keynesian macroeconomics lacked micro-foundations. The NKPC provides theoretical micro-foundations that attempt to explain, inter alia, nominal rigidities and, explicitly price stickiness. This paper investigates the validity of the NKPC for Australia. In contrast to the findings for the USA and Euro area, we find that neither the output gap nor marginal cost appears to be a key driving force variable across different set of instruments and estimators (GMM and 2SLS) over the sample period from 1959 to 2009. The flattening of the NKPC along with significant presence of price stickiness is also found in the data. In particular, the reduced form coefficients and implied estimates from the structural parameters of the model support the view that inflation dynamics are forward looking while the role of lagged inflation is also statistically important only after 1980s. However, we claim that the forward looking baseline NKPC contrary to the hybrid NKPC is stable and better explains inflation dynamics for the Australian economy.     

Product market regulation,trend inflation and inflation dynamics in the new Keynesian Phillips curve

In this empirical paper, we take a close look at the impact of the observed decline in the product market regulation, and hence in the barriers to entry and in impediments to competition, on inflation dynamics since the early 1980s.We use an enlarged new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) allowing for entry of firms and increasing competitive pressures with the number of firms and non zero trend inflation.Using OECD indicators on product market regulations, characterized by persistent fluctuations, and taking into account the non stationary properties of the inflation process, we investigate the empirical relevance of this NKPC for inflation dynamics in the US and France, assuming VAR expectations. The results point out that product market regulation is a good candidate as an exogenous structural source of the observed persistence in inflation for the past thirty years in both the US and France.     

Inventories,inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

We introduce inventories into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and study the implications for inflation dynamics. Inventory holdings are motivated as a means to generate sales for demand-constrained firms. We derive various representations of the New Keynesian Phillips curve with inventories and show that one of these specifications is observationally equivalent to the standard model with respect to the behavior of inflation when the model's cross-equation restrictions are imposed. However, the driving variable in the New Keynesian Phillips curve – real marginal cost – is unobservable and has to be proxied by, for instance, real unit labor cost. An alternative approach is to impute marginal cost by using the model's optimality conditions. We show that the stock–sales ratio is linked to marginal cost. We also estimate these various specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using GMM. We find that the predictive power of the inventory-specification at best approaches that of the standard model, but does not improve upon it.     

Dynamic equilibria with unemployment due to undernourishment

Summary We provide characterization and stability results for the stationary equilibria of a competitive infinite-horizon model that incorporates the nutritional requirements of physical labor. We find that for many aggregate land stocks, there is a large continuum of stationary equilibrium unemployment rates. Since unemployment can be seen to stem from inequality in the initial distribution of land ownership, we suggest that certain land reforms can reduce unemployment.Many of our results were developed while Streufert visited the Indian Statistical Institute. Ray is grateful for financial support from the Warshow Endowment of Cornell University, and Streufert thanks the Institute for Research on Poverty and the Graduate School, both at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. We are also thankful for the useful comments of an editor, a referee, and seminar participants at Wisconsin, Yale, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and the Midwest Mathematical Economics Conference.     

Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent is assumed to behave as an econometrician, employing a time series model for inflation that allows for both permanent and temporary shocks. The near-unity coefficient on expected inflation in the Phillips curve causes the agent's perception of a unit root in inflation to become close to self-fulfilling. In a “consistent expectations equilibrium,” the value of the Kalman gain parameter in the agent's forecast rule is pinned down using the observed autocorrelation of inflation changes. The forecast errors observed by the agent are close to white noise, making it difficult for the agent to detect a misspecification of the forecast rule. I show that this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying persistence and volatility that is broadly similar to that observed in long-run U.S. data. Model-based values for expected inflation track well with movements in survey-based measures of U.S. expected inflation. In numerical simulations, the model can generate pronounced low-frequency swings in the level of inflation that are driven solely by expectational feedback, not by changes in monetary policy.     

Keynesian and monetarist models of unemployment and inflation: A simulation study for Austria

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird versucht, durch Simulationen makroökonomischer Modelle für Österreich Aufschluß über die Erklärungskraft monetaristischer und keynesianischer Ansätze zu gewinnen. Zu diesem Zweck werden mit einer gemeinsamen Datenbasis über eine gemeinsame Schätzperiode (1957 bis 1982) drei monetaristische Modelle und ein keynesianisches Modell geschätzt, die möglichst viele gemeinsame Elemente enthalten, zugleich aber die wesentlichen theoretischen Unterschiede (insbesondere bezüglich struktureller Modelleigenschaften) zum Ausdruck bringen sollen. Untersucht werden ein von Stein vorgeschlagenes monetaristisches Modell und zwei Modelle, die die Hypothese der natürlichen Arbeitslosenrate enthalten, wobei das eine auf der Annahme adaptiver und das andere, das weitgehend einer Spezifikation von Sargent folgt, auf jener rationaler Erwartungen (also auf der Neuen Klassischen Makroökonomik) beruht; daneben wird ein keynesianisches Modell geschätzt, in dem die Arbeitslosenrate durch die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage und die Inflationsrate durch Kostenfaktoren und einen auch langfristig existierenden Phillips-Kurven-trade-off erklärt wird. Alle vier Modelle werden über die Schätzperiode mit den historischen Werten der jeweiligen exogenen Variablen simuliert; als Grundlage für eine Bewertung der Modelle dienen dabei Vergleiche der durch diese Simulation gewonnenen Schätzwerte für Arbeitslosenrate und Inflationsrate mit deren historischen Werten. Fehler- und Prädiktoranalysen zeigen, daß das keynesianische Modell den monetaristischen in bezug auf die meisten verwendeten Kriterien überlegen ist. Daher wird vermutet, daß die derzeit vorliegenden monetaristischen Ansätze weniger zur Erklärung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen Österreichs und der Zusammenhänge zwischen den wichtigsten Aggregaten beitragen können als keynesianische Ansätze.

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For many valuable comments and suggestions for improvement I am indebted to the anonymous referees of this journal and to A. Wörgötter. Any remaining shortcomings are my own responsibility.     

Promises in group decision making

We assess in the laboratory the effect of promises on group decision-making. The gift-exchange game provides the testing ground for our experiment. When the game is played between groups, inter-group cooperation and reciprocity represent a condition for increasing total earnings as a measure of social efficiency. Our findings show that promises have positive effect on aggregate payoffs and that effect is reinforced when a group member is randomly selected as proposer to set forth an effort/transfer level that other group members can approve or reject. Promises and proposers elicit social conformity leading groups to exhibit more desirable social behavior.     

The end of Brazilian big inflation: lessons to monetary policy from a standard New Keynesian model

The paper analyzes economic stabilization in Brazil in the context of a New Keynesian model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Dataset covers the period 1975–2012. Our methodology is based on tests for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates and counterfactual exercises. The results show that inflation and output volatility present an inverted U-shape pattern, peaking at the 1985–1994 sample. Changes in the monetary policy stance and milder shocks accounted for the reduced inflationary volatility (about 50% each, in some specifications). However, some assumptions indicated that a sharp decline in the Phillips curve slope was also important for controlling inflation. Concerning to output, the sole explanation for its volatility fall seemed to be smaller shocks. Therefore, we conclude that a mix of the “good luck” and “good policy” hypotheses mainly originated the current period of increased stability in the country.     

Bounded interpersonal inferences and decision making

Summary. Individual decision making is based on predictions about other players' choices as well as on valuations of reactions to predictions. In this sense, a player has a prediction-decision criterion for decision making. We develop a theory of prediction-decision criteria, which enables us to capture new phenomena on individual decision making in games. The decision making situation is described in the epistemic logic GL of shallow depths. There, each player considers his and other players' decision making down to some shallow depths. It is a point of our theory to investigate inferential complexities of interpersonal introspections. In particular, we can discuss a minimal epistemic inferential structure for prediction-decision making. We will find parallel structures in decision making and prediction making, which is called an inner parallelism. The climax of the paper is the consideration of inner parallelisms of prediction-decision making. Received: August 31, 2000; revised version: April 9, 2001     

Participation, decision aggregation and internal information gathering in organizational decision making

This paper proposes a stylized theory that focuses on the determination of the structure of decision making within teams. This structure consists of two elements: the allocation of decisional power among the team members, and the degree of information acquisition on their quality. The suggested approach is applied in the special context of pairwise organizational choice for evaluating the performance of a class of decision rules, the value of participation in organizational decision making, the value of information on the quality of the available decision makers, and the efficiency loss associated with common restrictions on the design of the corporate's structure of decision making.     

我国通货膨胀率均值过程和波动过程中的双长记忆性度量与统计检验

This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China’s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hypothesis. Therefore, as for policy maker, they should roundly concerns on long memory properties of inflation and inflation uncertainty, and their single-direction relationship between them. __________ Translated from Guanli shijie 管理世界 (Management World), 2007, (7): 14–21     

Armed conflicts and women's authority in intra-household decision making

This paper evaluates the extent to which armed conflicts alter women's intra-household decision making in 51 countries over the past three decades (1990–2018). Exploiting the variations both within and across districts in the timing of battles, we uncover adverse consequences of armed conflict on women's engagement in household decisions on both financial and non-financial aspects. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the number of battles (equivalent to an increase of 5.1 battles) reduces the composite financial and non-financial decision indices of women by 2.32% and 1.34% relative to the sample averages. Breaking down the decision-making indices by looking at the underlying items, we further find that the declines in women's intra-household decision making come from reductions in all aspects of financial and non-financial domains.     

Exploring group decision making in a power-to-take experiment

Most studies that compare individual and group behavior neglect the in-group decision making process. This paper explores the decision making process within groups in a strategic setting: a two player power-to-take experiment. Discussions preceding group decisions are video taped and analyzed. We find the following: (1) no impact of the group setting as such on individual behavior; (2) heterogeneity of individual types; (3) perceptions of fairness are hardly discussed and are prone to the self-serving bias; (4) groups ignore the decision rule of other groups and typically view them as if they were single agents. (5) We also show that to explain group outcomes two factors have to be taken into account that are often neglected: the distribution of individual types over groups and the decision rules that groups use to arrive at their decision. JEL Classification A12 · C72 · C91 · C92     

Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making

The concept of ecosystems services has become an important model for linking the functioning of ecosystems to human welfare. Understanding this link is critical for a wide-range of decision-making contexts. While there have been several attempts to come up with a classification scheme for ecosystem services, there has not been an agreed upon, meaningful and consistent definition for ecosystem services. In this paper we offer a definition of ecosystem services that is likely to be operational for ecosystem service research and several classification schemes. We argue that any attempt at classifying ecosystem services should be based on both the characteristics of the ecosystems of interest and a decision context for which the concept of ecosystem services is being mobilized. Because of this there is not one classification scheme that will be adequate for the many contexts in which ecosystem service research may be utilized. We discuss several examples of how classification schemes will be a function of both ecosystem and ecosystem service characteristics and the decision-making context.