中国商业银行中间业务

2008年中国商业银行中问业务仍快速增长,但结构发生较大变化。手续费及佣金净收入占中间业务收入的比重显著下降;利率、汇率、价格等因素的变化,对商业银行投资损益、汇兑损益、公允价值产生较大的影响;受资本市场影响,代理销售基金业务收入明显减少,而代理销售保险业务出现替代式增长;银行卡支出增多;基金托管业务逆势增长,企业年金及其他托管业务成为新的发展重点;电子结算工具得到大力发展;投资银行业务成为中间业务新的增长点;个人类中间业务受挫,公司类中间业务增长势头迅猛,首次超过个人类中问业务。     

对国有商业银行发展中间业务的思考

2007年资本市场的火爆和基金产品的热销，使商业银行中间业务快速增长。本文通过对米泉四大国有商业银行中间业务发展情况进行分析，认为我国国有商业银行发展中间业务还存在许多问题，特别是收费标准不规范，扰乱了银行服务价格市场，不利于中间业务的健康发展。为此，提出了发展中间业务的有效途径。     

2008—2012年城商行中间业务发展解析

随着经济结构调整以及利率市场化的加速推进,城商行依赖存贷利差的业务发展模式将不可持续。如何在未来利差收入减少的情况下获得可持续发展,成为城商行面临的重要难题。而发展中间业务无疑成为各类城商行的重要选择。对国内样本城商行的研究发现,大型城商行依托丰富的资源禀赋及先发优势,在中间业务发展上处于领先地位,而多数中小城商行无论是中间业务占比还是结构上都处于初步发展阶段。未来,大型城商行应充分利用资本市场发展机遇,积极、稳妥推进投行业务,促进直接融资类手续费收入的增长;而中小型城商行应巩固传统中间业务发展,并以积极发展理财业务为契机拓展中间业务渠道。     

拓宽发展商业银行中间业务的思路

大力发展商业银行中间业务，是金融市场和资本市场进一步发展的客观需要，各家银行已经把加快发展中间业务作为提高经济效益的重要增长点，近期，中国人民银行发布了《商业银行中间业务暂行规定》，对商业银行开办的中间业务范围和中间业务准入制度等作了明确规定，这些对规范与完善银行服务体系，进一步促进商业银行中间业务的发展提供了有力的保障，同时也给商业银行中间业务发展带来一个新的机遇。     

关于商业银行中间业务对资本市场作用途径的分析

近年来,商业银行中间业务的发展对资本市场运行发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文阐述了商业银行中间业务对资本市场的作用途径,包括开展投资银行业务和银证银基银保业务以及提供证券交易结算服务和资产托管服务,对其具体内容与机制进行了分析。     

商业银行中间业务亟待规范

目前,我国商业银行中间业务有所发展,但由于存在诸多制约因素,出现了业务量较小、水平较低的情况.本文在调查的基础上,从五个方面提出了规范对策,即重视中间业务,将中间业务定位为新的利润增长点;银行之间应当加强合作,公平竞争;制定统一可行的中间业务收费标准:加强对中间业务的监管;加强对中间业务管理,加大对中间业务投入.     

中外商业银行中间业务的比较分析

在存贷款利差不断减少和资本监管不断加强的今天,中间业务已经成为商业银行新的利润增长点,与资产业务和负债业务共同构成现代商业银行业务的三大支柱。经过20多年的培育和发展,我国已经形成了一个富有竞争性的、开放的银行中间业务市场,但与外资商业银行相比,中间业务仍然是中资商业银行的软肋,我国的商业银行正面临着严峻挑战,大力发展中间业务对我国商业银行的经营管理具有重大意义。本文通过对中、外资商业银行的中间业务的对比分析,指出我国商业银行中间业务存在的问题,并在此基础上指出了对策。     

掘金中间业务

近年来，随着外资商业银行的不断进入和我国商业银行由传统银行向现代商业银行转型步伐的不断加快，中间业务得到了国内商业银行前所未有的重视，许多银行将它定位于业务发展的重点，并在组织架构调整、资源配置等方面加大了支持力度，同时，监管部门也在政策和法律上为商业银行发展中间业务扩展了制度空间，中间业务已成为国内商业银行业务发展的重要领域和中外银行市场竞争的焦点。如何认识中间业务发展对国内商业银行结构调整、业务转型的作用?如何评估中外商业银行中间业务的发展现状?如何把握国内商业银行中间业务发展的未来趋势?如何处理中间业务与资产业务、负债业务在银行经营发展中的关系?如何把握中间业务发展的策略?等等，已成为国内商业银行共同关注的关键问题?围绕这些问题，本刊记专访了招商银行研究部葛兆强博士。     

关于我国商业银行发展中间业务的思考

目前中间业务已经成为西方商业银行的三大支柱性业务之一,但我国商业银行的中间业务尚处于低水平发展阶段,且存在很多问题.为此,应努力营造中间业务发展良好的市场竟争环境,同时提升中间业务发展层次,加大中间业务创新力度.良好的市场竟争环境是商业银行发展中间业务的前提;而提升发展层次,加大创新力度是商业银行发展中间业务的关键.     

中美商业银行中间业务比较

资产、负债和中间业务是商业银行的三大支柱业务.长期以来,我国商业银行收入主要依赖资产、负债业务.中间业务收入比重偏低.近几年我国商业银行中间业务取得了较快发展,但从总体看,仍与发达国家存在差距.本文从收入规模、市场集中度、经营内容、产品创新、服务技术和软硬件设施等方面比较分析了中、美两国商业银行中间业务的发展状况,结论是在数量、质量上我国商业银行中间业务与美国相比,都存在着很大的差距.认清差距、借鉴经验,有利于促进我国商业银行中间业务的进一步发展.     

Analysis of Consumer Reports’ recommended mutual funds compared to actual performance

This study examines 60 mutual funds presented in the February 2007 issue of Consumer Reports. In addition, data for the same group of mutual funds were obtained as of 30 September 2008 to evaluate the recommendations provided in Consumer Reports. In order to exclude the major declines that occurred in the stock market in October 2008, the time periods of 30 November 2006 and 30 September 2008 were analyzed in this study. Specifically, this research examines the relationship between mutual funds’ net assets, share prices, manager tenures, expense ratio, tax–cost ratio and annualized returns to see whether Consumer Reports is a reliable source for investors seeking to purchase mutual funds.     

基于计量模型的2009年我国货币供应量预测

货币供应量是影响经济金融体系能否正常运行的重要因素,正确预测货币供应量走势对我国经济金融政策的决策和经济发展战略的实施都有着十分重要的意义.本文介绍了符合金融系统预测规律的ARIMA(p,d.q)时间序列模型,并根据我国货币供应量实际数据对2008-2009年货币供应量走势进行了预测检验,实证预测结果显示与2008年实际M2相对照,模型预测精度较高,误差被控制在2%以内,说明ARIMA模型能较准确地预测我国货币供应量走势,可为我国货币供应量的预测和走势提供可靠的参考依据.     

Discerning the Impact of Derivatives on Asset Risk: The Case of Canadian Banks

The Canadian banks have shown remarkable resilience to the financial crisis that intensified in the late 2008. The interesting question is whether this stability is due to their prudent lending practices to limit the original risk exposures or due to effective risk management through hedging by using financial derivatives. In this paper, we implement the option‐theoretic model of Merton to calculate the implied asset risk and discern the impact of these derivatives on the aggregate risk for Canadian banks over the period 1997–2008. An algorithm of iterative procedure is developed to impute asset value and risk from bank stock prices. Our estimates show that the risk for Canadian banks is low and even decreasing till the unfolding of the recent crises in 2008. Further analyses reveal that such low risks are not due to reliance on hedging, nor is it related to trading in derivatives, after disentangling the intertwined effects of hedging and trading. These results suggest that involvements in derivatives, in and of themselves, should not be blamed for causing the bank crises; rather, it is conservatism in controlling original risk exposures that remains fundamental for safeguarding a healthy financial system.     

认真落实人总行工作会议精神做好2008年上海总部各项工作

本文根据中国人民银行工作会议精神,在认真分析形势的基础上,结合上海总部辖区特点,全面部署了人民银行上海总部2008年的各项工作。     

The genesis of the 2008 global financial crisis and challenges to the neoclassical paradigm of finance

In the first step, this paper briefly discusses the macroeconomic background of the 2008 financial crisis. Next, we take a wider approach and we look at systemic changes that global economics, and financial markets in particular, had undergone. We wonder if these transformations, and their effects so dramatically demonstrated in 2008, give grounds to modify the theoretical background of finance. The neoclassical paradigm might be seen as an idealized normative benchmark. On the other hand, behavioral approach helps explain deviations from this benchmark, however itself it lacks the normative character. We conclude that in contemporary circumstances an interdisciplinary approach is needed in the search for an adequate theory, as the financial world is getting more and more complex and dynamic.     

An Italian perspective on the development of financial mathematics from 1992 to 2008

This paper is intended to be a survey of the development of financial mathematics as seen through the events that I organised, and partly co-organised, between 1992 and 2008. These events all took place in Italy between 1992 and 2003, while in 2008 I was involved in the organisation of an entire special semester in Linz (Austria); this semester is included here because it marks quite well the state-of-the-art of the period just before the so-called big financial crisis that lasted from, roughly, 2008 to 2012. Even if the survey may be affected by my personal views, it can still be seen as reflecting the actual global development since what I am going to describe here concerns major occurrences. For completeness, I also mention, although only briefly, some events that took place in Italy during the given period, but where I was not personally involved.

     

我国股市与汇市之间关系的再检验——基于滚动时间窗口技术和阈值误差修正模型的证据

本文采用滚动时间窗口的技术,基于协整检验和Granger因果检验的方法,检验我国股票市场和人民币兑美元汇率之间的联动关系。实证结果表明,股价与汇率之间长期均衡关系是随时间变化的。2008年之前,股价与汇率之间总体上不存在长期均衡关系,而且仅存在汇率到股价的单向引导关系。2008年之后,二者之间总体上存在显著的长期均衡关系,而且股价与汇率互为对方变动的Granger原因。运用阈值误差修正模型,我们发现股价与汇率之间的短期均衡存在显著的非对称效应。汇率对股价的短期影响要远远大于股价对汇率的影响。     

现行企业境外所得税抵免制度评析

2008年,《企业所得税法》及其实施条例分别以专门的条款确立了中国企业境外所得税抵免制度的框架。本文通过与《企业所得税法》实施前原内资企业所得税和外资企业所得税制度下的企业境外所得税抵免规定对比,概括了境外所得税抵免制度的主要特征,并从四个方面分析了现行境外所得税抵免制度的局限。     

The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on the Hurst exponents of international stock markets: Implications for efficiency and contagion

This study analyzes how the 2008 and 2010 financial crises, which began in the US and Greece respectively, affected the Hurst exponents of index returns of the stock markets of Belgium, France, Greece, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal, the UK and US. We perform two innovative statistical tests for this purpose. The first assesses whether the returns exhibit a long memory in the pre-crisis and crisis periods and determines the extent to which the Hurst exponents, calculated with the multifractal detrended moving average technique (MFDMA), differ from the tranquil to the crisis periods. The second test uses copula models to assess whether the correlation between the local Hurst exponents of the markets where the crises originated and those of the other markets increased due to the crises. The results of the first test suggest that although most of the returns exhibit a long memory in the 2008 crisis period, this is not the case in either the pre-crisis or the 2010 crisis periods. These findings shed light on the dynamics of market efficiency. The results of the second test show a significant increase in correlation between the local Hurst exponents of several markets, suggesting the existence of financial contagion. We observed that the 2008 crisis had a greater impact on the memory properties of stock returns than the 2010 financial crisis.     

Development of accounting in Poland: Market efficiency and the value relevance of reported earnings

This paper outlines the evolution of the information environment surrounding the Warsaw Stock Exchange in Poland. Like other transition economies, Poland needed to develop accounting regulations to support privatization. We trace changes in financial reporting regulation from 1994, through the adoption of IFRS and corporate governance codes, to the crisis of 2007-2008. The effect of these developments is then evaluated empirically by testing the relevance of earnings of listed corporations from 1997 to 2008 to corporate value. We show that the stock exchange was weak-form efficient during this period and estimate regressions for value relevance of earnings to corporate value. We find positive evidence of such relevance but no improvement in the strength of the relationship over time.