Degrees-of-freedom problem and implied cost of equity capital

Bias in implied cost of equity estimates arises from analyst optimism and a degrees-of-freedom problem. The common practice in empirical studies of using a proxy for the earnings forecast horizon beyond two years in the Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (OJ) model is potentially biased. We derive a generalized OJ model over a T period forecast horizon and indicate the extent of this bias. The implied cost of equity capital is obtained from a quadratic equation, where our constant term comprises T short-term annual earnings per share growth rates, rather than just the next-period counterpart in the OJ model.     

Terrorism and its impact on the cost of debt

We extend the literature on the costs of terrorism by examining its long-term impact on financial markets, an underdeveloped strand of research within the terrorism construct. Specifically, we look at its effect on the sovereign risk of 102 countries (a much broader sample than examined before), which forms the basis of the cost of debt in those countries, postulating that it results in a lower credit rating and that this impact is more pronounced in developing as opposed to developed markets. In operationalizing the risk of terrorism, we utilize the Institute for Economics and Peace's Global Terrorism Index, the most comprehensive index constructed to date which incorporates both the economic and social dimensions of terrorism and is based on the Global Terrorism Database covering 104,000 documented incidents. The results of the study support the hypothesis that terrorism results in a higher cost of debt for sovereigns and by extension, firms in impacted countries. In fact, a two-point increase in terrorism on the utilized 10-point scale on average results in a half notch reduction in a sovereign's credit rating, roughly equivalent to a change in outlook. Furthermore, this impact is more pronounced in developing markets where we find that a comparable two-point increase in terrorism on average results in an entire notch downgrade in the sovereign credit rating, e.g., from BB to BB-. Finally, we find that our model demonstrates predictive power on an out-of-sample basis and as such, could be useful for investors seeking to construct more efficient diversified asset portfolios.     

Terminal valuations, growth rates and the implied cost of capital

We develop a model based on the notion that prices lead earnings, allowing for a simultaneous estimation of the implied growth rate and the cost of equity capital for US industrial sectors. The major difference between our approach and that in prior literature is that ours avoids the necessity to make assumptions about terminal values and consequently about future growth rates. In fact, growth rates are an endogenous variable, which is estimated simultaneously with the implied cost of equity capital. Since we require only 1-year-ahead forecasts of earnings and no assumptions about dividend payouts, our methodology allows us to estimate ex ante aggregate growth and risk premia over a larger sample of firms than has previously been possible. Our estimate of the risk premium being between 3.1 and 3.9 % is at the lower end of recent estimates, reflecting the inclusion of these short-lived companies. Our estimate of the long run growth is from 4.2 to 4.7 %.     

International asset allocation using the market implied cost of capital

The Black and Litterman (Financ Anal J 48(5):28–43, 1992) (BL) approach to portfolio optimization requires investor views on expected asset returns as an input. I demonstrate that the market implied cost of capital (ICC) is ideal for quantifying those views on a country level. I benchmark this approach against a BL optimization using time-series models as investor views, the equally weighted portfolio, and allocation methods based on stock market capitalization and GDP. I find that the ICC portfolio offers an increase in average return of 2.1 percentage points (yearly) as compared to the value-weighted portfolio, while having a similar standard deviation. The resulting difference in Sharpe ratios is statistically significant and robust to the inclusion of transaction costs, varying BL parameters, and a less strictly defined investment universe.     

On the relation between expected returns and implied cost of capital

We examine the relation between implied cost of capital and expected returns under an assumption that expected returns are stochastic, a property supported by theory and empirical evidence. We demonstrate that implied cost of capital differs from expected return, on average, by a function encompassing volatilities of, as well as correlation between, expected returns and cash flows, growth in cash flows, and leverage. These results provide alternative explanations for findings from empirical studies employing implied cost of capital on the magnitude of the market risk premium; predictability of future returns; and the relations between cost of capital and a host of firm characteristics, such as growth, leverage, idiosyncratic risk and the firm’s information environment.     

Advertising intensity,investor recognition,and implied cost of capital

The main purpose of this paper is to test Merton’s (J Finance 42(3):483–510, 1987) hypothesis that better investor recognition is correlated with lower expected returns. We measure investor recognition with the firms’ advertising intensity and offer consistent evidence that higher advertising intensity is associated with lower implied cost of capital, as derived from Value Line target prices and dividend forecasts. Investor recognition plays an important role in attracting investors, improving liquidity, and ultimately reducing the cost of capital. The findings shed light on the capital market implications of advertising expenditures and complement the extant research on investor recognition.     

The implied cost of equity capital,corporate investment and chief executive officer turnover

This study investigates how the cost of equity capital, along with corporate investment, affects chief executive officer (CEO) turnover decisions. We hypothesize that the cost of equity conveys information about firm performance uncertainty that is informative of CEO talent. Consistently, our empirical results show that the likelihood of CEO turnover is positively associated with the implied cost of equity, after controlling for earnings and stock performance measures and risk factors. Additional analysis of reverse causality supports the causal effect of the high cost of equity on CEO dismissals. We also find that the positive association is more pronounced for firms that are more likely to suffer from underinvestment problems. These results suggest that the cost of equity plays a more important role in assessing CEO performance when the firm needs more external equity capital to pursue investment opportunities.     

The impact of narrative disclosure readability on bond ratings and the cost of debt

Prior research on the determinants of credit ratings has focused on rating agencies’ use of quantitative accounting information, but the there is scant evidence on the impact of textual attributes. This study examines the impact of financial disclosure narrative on bond market outcomes. We find that less readable financial disclosures are associated with less favorable ratings, greater bond rating agency disagreement, and a higher cost of debt. We improve causal identification by exploiting the 1998 Plain English Mandate, which required a subset of firms to exogenously improve the readability of their filings. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the firms required to improve the readability of their filings experience more favorable ratings, lower bond rating disagreement, and lower cost of debt. Collectively, our evidence suggests that textual financial disclosure attributes appear to not only influence bond market intermediaries’ opinions but also firms’ cost of debt.     

The impact of economic factors and acquisition reforms on the cost of defense weapon systems

This paper evaluates how defense budget instability, consolidation of the defense industry, acquisition reform, war, and cost estimating error are related to cost overruns in major Department of Defense Acquisition projects from 1979 to 2002. Employing a panel model of service specific cost overruns, with fixed effects, we find that funding instability in O&M and R&D budgets had large impacts on procurement costs overruns. We further found that unexpected inflation and armed conflict led to higher levels of Procurement cost overruns. Finally we found that the acquisition reforms of the Nunn-McCurdy Act of 1982, the Packard Commission Recommendations of 1986 and the Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act (FASA) of 1994 resulted in significant reductions in procurement cost overruns.     

Coupon and tax effects on new and seasoned bond yields and the measurement of the cost of debt capital

A model of the tax structure of interest rates is developed and simple approximate expressions relating yield to coupon are derived. The effect on these simple expressions of alternative assumptions about holding period length, expectations of future interest rates, and other factors, is evaluated. It is shown that with recent U.S. yield averages the new-seasoned yield spread varies with the new-seasoned coupon spread as the theory prescribes. It is concluded that new issue yield averages should provide a more reliable measure of the cost of debt capital than is provided by seasoned yield averages.     

International Financial Reporting Standards,institutional infrastructures,and implied cost of equity capital around the world

Using a sample of 21,608 firm-years from 34 countries during 1998–2004, this study evaluates the impact of voluntary adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on a firm’s implied cost of equity capital. We find that the implied cost of equity capital is significantly lower for the full IFRS adopters than for the non-adopters even after controlling for potential self-selection bias and firm-specific and country-level factors that are known to affect the implied cost of capital. This result holds irrespective of institutional infrastructure determining a country’s governance and enforcement mechanisms. We also find that the implied cost of equity capital decreases with the efficacy of institutional infrastructure. Moreover, we provide evidence that the cost of capital-reducing effect of IFRS adoption is greater when IFRS adopters are from countries with weak institutional infrastructures than when they are from countries with strong infrastructures. The above results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks.     

Religiosity and the cost of debt

In a cross-country setting, we document that stronger religiosity is associated with lower loan interest spread. In addition, we show that this negative association is more pronounced in countries with weaker creditor rights, suggesting that religious values play a more significant role in constraining opportunistic behavior in a weaker legal environment. Our analysis reveals that stronger religiosity is also related to other favorable terms in loan contracting, such as larger facility amount, use of accounting-based performance pricing, and lower upfront fee. Corroborating our cross-country findings, we also show that in the U.S. setting, firms in regions with stronger religiosity enjoy lower loan interest spread. Our study contributes to understanding the important role religiosity plays in debt financing.     

Competition and the cost of debt

This paper empirically shows that the cost of bank debt is systematically higher for firms that operate in competitive product markets. Using various proxies for product market competition, and reductions of import tariff rates to capture exogenous changes to a firm's competitive environment, I find that competition has a significantly positive effect on the cost of bank debt. Moreover, the analysis reveals that the effect of competition is greater in industries in which small firms face financially strong rivals, in industries with intense strategic interactions between firms, and in illiquid industries. Overall, these findings suggest that banks price financial contracts by taking into account the risk that arises from product market competition.     

Analyst recommendations and the implied cost of equity

We investigate the relation between analyst recommendations and the cost of equity implied by current stock price and earnings forecasts. Contrary to expectations, previous-year recommendation upgrades are associated with increases in the current cost of equity; and past increases in the cost of equity are associated with current recommendation downgrades. Furthermore, changes in the implied cost of equity and changes in analyst recommendations jointly explain as much as 31% of the variation in 1-year holding period returns, where most of the variation (28%) is explained by the implied cost of equity alone. We document that when forming recommendations, analysts underestimate the role of the cost of equity.     

Executive compensation and the cost of debt

This study examines how different components of executive compensation affect the cost of debt. We find that debt-like and equity-like pay components have differing effects: an increase in defined benefit pensions is associated with lower bond yield spread, while higher share holdings lead to higher spreads. In addition, we find that stock options have a mixed impact on the cost of debt whereas cash bonus has no significant impact. Overall, our results indicate that corporate bondholders are fully aware of both risk-taking and risk-avoiding incentives created by various executive pay components.     

Income smoothing and the cost of debt

The literature on income smoothing focuses on the effect of earnings smoothing on the equity market.This paper investigates the effect of income smoothing on th...     

The impact of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt

Extant literature provides conflicting results with respect to the usefulness and accuracy of analysts' operating cash flow forecasts. Our study empirically examines the importance and influence of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt. Results indicate that firms meeting/beating analysts' cash flow forecasts have higher initial bond ratings as well as lower initial bond yields. Additionally, based upon an analysis of rating changes, firms meeting or beating cash flow forecasts have a higher probability of receiving a debt rating upgrade and a lower probability of a ratings downgrade compared to firms missing cash flow forecasts. A direct comparison of the importance of meeting/beating cash flow versus earnings benchmarks indicates that debt market participants appear to incrementally value both types of forecasts, and contrary to selected equity market findings, neither forecast subsumes the other for debt market participants.     

Option implied volatilities and the cost of issuing equity

The structure of a firm-commitment Seasoned Equity Offering (SEO) resembles a put-option underwritten by an investment bank syndicate (Smith, 1977). Employing implied volatilities from issuers’ stock options as a direct forward-looking measure, this paper examines the impact of expected price risk around SEO issue dates on the direct cost of issuing equity. Using a comprehensive sample of 1208 SEOs between 1996 and 2009, we find issuers with higher option implied volatilities raise less external equity capital and pay higher investment bank fees in the stock market, ceteris paribus. The effect of implied volatility on the investment bank fees is stronger for larger issuers with lower pre-SEO abnormal realized stock volatilities, and for SEOs with higher expected price pressures around issue dates. These relationships are robust to adjustments for correlations among control variables, sample selection bias and also simultaneous determination of offer size and SEO fees.     

The market for corporate control and the cost of debt

How do bondholders view the existence of an open market for corporate control? Between 1985 and 1991, 30 states in the U.S. enacted business combination (BC) laws, raising the cost of corporate takeovers. Relying on these exogenous events, we estimate the influence of the market for corporate control on the cost of debt. We identify different channels through which an open market for corporate control can benefit or harm bondholders: a reduction in managerial slack or the “quiet life,” resulting in higher profitability and firm value; a coinsurance effect, in which firms become less risky after being acquired; and an increasing leverage effect, in which bondholder wealth is expropriated through leverage-increasing takeovers. Consistent with the first two mechanisms, we find that the cost of debt rose after the passage of the BC laws; moreover, it rose sharply for firms in non-competitive industries, and for firms rated speculative-grade. In contrast, there is virtually no effect for firms in competitive industries, or firms rated investment-grade.