A smiling bear in the equity options market and the cross-section of stock returns

We propose a measure for the convexity of an option-implied volatility curve, IV convexity, as a forward-looking measure of risk-neutral tail-risk contribution to the perceived variance of underlying equity returns. Using equity options data for individual US-listed stocks during 2000–2013, we find that the average realized return differential between the lowest and highest IV convexity quintile portfolios exceeds 1% per month, which is both economically and statistically significant on a risk-adjusted basis. Our empirical findings indicate the contribution of informed options trading to price discovery in terms of the realization of tail-risk aversion in the stock market.     

Informed options trading on the implied volatility surface: A cross-sectional approach

This study investigates the cross-sectional implication of informed options trading across different strikes and maturities. We explore the term structure perspective of the one-way information transmission from options markets to stock markets by adopting well-known option-implied volatility measures to examine stock return predictability. Using equity options data for U.S. listed stocks spanning 2000–2013, we find that the shape of the long-term implied volatility curve exhibits extra predictive power for stock returns of subsequent months even after orthogonalizing the short-term components. Our findings indicate that the inter-market information asymmetry rapidly disappears before the expiration of long-term option contracts.     

Asymmetric pricing of implied systematic volatility in the cross‐section of expected returns

Assuming a symmetric relation between returns and innovations in implied market volatility, Ang, A., Hodrick, R., Xing, Y., and Zhang, X. (2006) find that sensitivities to changes in implied market volatility have a cross‐sectional effect on firm returns. Dennis, P., Mayhew, S., and Stivers, C. (2006), however, find an asymmetric relation between firm‐level returns and implied market volatility innovations. We incorporate this asymmetry into the cross‐sectional relation between sensitivity to volatility innovations and returns. Using both portfolio sorting and firm‐level regressions, we find that sensitivity to VIX innovations is negatively related to returns when volatility is rising, but is unrelated when it is falling. The negative relation is robust to controls for other variables, suggesting only the increase in implied market volatility is a priced risk factor. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:34–54, 2011     

The conditional relationship between beta and returns: recent evidence from international stock markets

The risk–return relationship is one of the fundamental concepts in finance that is most important to investors and portfolio managers. Finance theory argues that the beta or systematic risk is the only relevant risk measure for investors. However, many studies have showed that betas and returns are not related empirically, no matter in domestic markets or in international stock markets. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and returns in international stock markets for the period from January 1991 to December 2000. After recognizing the fact that while expected returns are always positive, realized returns could be positive or negative, we find a significant positive relationship between beta and returns in up market periods (positive market excess returns) but a significant negative relationship in down market periods (negative market excess returns). The results are robust for both monthly and weekly returns and for two different proxies of the world market portfolio. Our findings indicate that beta is still a useful risk measure for portfolio managers in making optimal investment decisions.     

Wealth‐to‐Income Ratio and Stock Market Movements: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality Test

We use a nonparametric causality‐in‐quantile test to analyze the predictive ability of the wealth‐to‐income ratio (wy) for excess stock returns and their volatility. Our results reveal that the wy is nonlinearly related with excess stock returns, and hence, results from linear Granger causality tests cannot be deemed robust. When we apply the nonparametric causality‐in‐quantile test, we find that the wy can predict excess stock returns over the majority of the conditional distribution, with the exception being the extreme ends, that is, when the market is in deep bear or bull phases. However, the wy has no predictability for the volatility of excess stock returns.     

Show me the money: Option moneyness concentration and future stock returns

Informed traders often use options that are not in-the-money due to higher potential gains for a smaller upfront cost. Thus, trading activity by option moneyness should be a gauge of informed option trading. We construct a dollar volume-weighted average moneyness measure to capture option trading activity at different moneyness levels. Stock returns increase with this measure, suggesting more trading activity in options with higher leverage predicts future stock returns. Our results hold cross-sectionally and at the portfolio level yielding a Fama–French five-factor α of 12% per year for all stocks and 33% per year for high implied volatility stocks.     

The Interrelationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices-The Case of China

ABSTRACT

Prior studies of industrialized countries have found that a definite relationship exists between the stock market returns and macroeconomic variables such as inflation and real output. This paper investigates the effects of changes in the consumer price index on industrial production and stock market returns for China. Six different types of Chinese shares are examined for the period 1994–1998. The results show a very significant positive relationship between inflation and real output. A positive and significant association is found between stock returns and real output in current periods. Inflation seems to have no impact on Chinese real stock returns. These relationships all hold for “B” shares, “H” shares and red chips. China's “A” share returns seem not to be impacted by either changes in domestic inflation or real industrial production.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Fama–French in China: Size and Value Factors in Chinese Stock Returns

We investigate the size and value factors in the cross‐section of returns for the Chinese stock market. We find a significant size effect but no robust value effect. A zero‐cost small‐minus‐big (SMB) portfolio earns an average premium of 0.61% per month, which is statistically significant with a t‐value of 2.89 and economically important. In contrast, neither the market portfolio nor the zero‐cost high‐minus‐low (HML) portfolio has average premiums that are statistically different from zero. In both time‐series regressions and Fama–MacBeth cross‐sectional tests, SMB represents the strongest factor in explaining the cross‐section of Chinese stock returns. Our results contradict several existing studies which document a value effect. We show that this difference comes from the extreme values in a few months in the early years of the market with a small number of stocks and high volatility. Their impact becomes insignificant with a longer sample and proper volatility adjustment.     

Predicting financial volatility: High‐frequency time‐series forecasts vis‐à‐vis implied volatility

Recent evidence suggests option implied volatilities provide better forecasts of financial volatility than time‐series models based on historical daily returns. In this study both the measurement and the forecasting of financial volatility is improved using high‐frequency data and long memory modeling, the latest proposed method to model volatility. This is the first study to extract results for three separate asset classes, equity, foreign exchange, and commodities. The results for the S&P 500, YEN/USD, and Light, Sweet Crude Oil provide a robust indication that volatility forecasts based on historical intraday returns do provide good volatility forecasts that can compete with and even outperform implied volatility. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1005–1028, 2004     

Systematic ESG exposure and stock returns: Evidence from the United States during the 1991–2019 period

Using a sample of US stocks over the period 1991–2019, we test whether stocks with high exposure to a social index exhibit high returns. Using a univariate analysis, our in-sample results show that stocks with high sensitivities to the MSCI KLD 400 Social Index underperform stocks with low sensitivities by an annual risk-adjusted performance of 7.02%. The negative premium is also larger in the post-crisis period of 2007–2019 and is equal to 10.25%. The out-of-sample results offer, however, only weak evidence of such a finding, with a risk-adjusted performance difference of merely −0.84% over the full sample period and no significant differences between the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. In the multivariate regression, we find evidence of a negative relationship between exposure to the social index and stock performance. Moreover, we find that stocks with high exposure to the social index display a low corporate social responsibility score, a high Tobin’s Q, high long-term debt, a large size, high total risk, a high market beta, a high SMB coefficient, a low HML coefficient, and a small MOM coefficient.     

Improving momentum strategies using residual returns and option-implied information

This paper provides an alternative method for enhancing momentum profits by combining residual returns and option-implied information. The results show that the main benefit of applying residual returns to construct momentum portfolios is generating stable returns. Additionally, the incorporation of implied volatility (IV) spread or IV skew into a residual momentum portfolio is found to significantly raise profits, particularly during bad times and high-sentiment periods. This is because IV spread and IV skew can dissociate winners/losers with a price underreaction from those with a price overreaction, which suggests that informed traders who perceive price underreactions/overreactions trade in option markets.     

Regime‐switching in stock index and Treasury futures returns and measures of stock market stress

We investigate bivariate regime‐switching in daily futures‐contract returns for the US stock index and ten‐year Treasury notes over the crisis‐rich 1997–2005 period. We allow the return means, volatilities, and correlation to all vary across regimes. We document a striking contrast between regimes, with a high‐stress regime that exhibits a much higher stock volatility, a much lower stock–bond correlation, and a higher mean bond return. The high‐stress regime is associated with higher average values of stock‐implied volatility, stock illiquidity, and stock and bond futures trading volume. The lagged implied volatility from equity‐index options is useful in modeling the time‐varying transition probabilities of the regime‐switching process. Our findings support the notions that: (1) stock market stress can have a material influence on Treasury bond pricing, and (2) the diversification benefits of combined stock–bond holdings tend to be greater during times with relatively high stock market stress. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:753–779, 2010     

Does the Quality of Corporate Governance Affect Firm Valuation and Risk? Evidence from a Corporate Governance Scorecard in Hong Kong*

Using Hong Kong firm data, we construct an index of corporate governance during 2002–2005, which scores the corporate governance practices of listed companies from the public shareholders' perspective based on the Organization for Economic Corporation and Development Principles of Corporate Governance. The findings show that family firms and firms with concentrated ownership structures are associated with bad corporate governance. The evidence also shows that these firms improve their corporate governance practices slower than their peers. Overall, the quality of corporate governance is very significant in explaining future company stock returns and risk. Good corporate governance is associated with both higher stock returns and with lower risk. Improvements in corporate governance are associated with significantly higher stock returns and lower company risk.     

Moderating Effects of Firm Age on the Relationship between Debt and Stock Returns

This article investigates the moderating effects of firm age on the relationship between debt and stock returns. The system generalized method of moment’s results indicate that firm age has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between book debt and stock returns. The results are robust, as firm age positively moderates the relationship between market debt and stock returns. Moreover, firm age has a direct positive effect on stock returns. Results suggest that as firms grow older, they use their experience to make effective capital structure decisions (i.e., optimal debt-equity mix) to maximize debt interest-tax-shield and increase shareholders’ returns.     

A closer look at co-movements among stock returns

Correlation among financial assets is widely recognized; however, the mechanics of the relationship are not well understood. This paper investigates the microstructure of the co-movement of stock returns. The goal is to improve our understanding of correlation among stock returns by examining the conditions under which asset returns co-move on an intra-day basis. The methodology combines a traditional lead–lag model with a modified or pseudo-error correction model. Empirical evidence is presented to suggest the speed of adjustment between paired asset intra-day returns is a function of asymmetric information. Specifically, the wider an asset's spread, the faster the asset will converge to the intra-day returns of other similar assets. This result is consistent with partial adjustment model presented by Chan (Chan, K. (1993). Imperfect information and cross-autocorrelation among stock prices. The Journal of Finance:1211–1230.) which suggests market makers gain from monitoring other market makers in periods of uncertainty.     

Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX

We compare the return–volatility relation for the euro currency to the equivalent relation for the equity market, examining the sign, symmetry, and strength of the relation. We employ the euro‐currency exchange‐traded fund (FXE) and its associated option implied volatility index (the EVZ), whereas previous studies only employ equities and/or realized volatility. The equity studies find a negative asymmetric return–volatility relation for implied volatility, with a strong relation when large market movements occur. We find that the euro return–volatility relation can possess either a positive or negative sign, is asymmetric, and has a weaker relation. Thus, the sign and strength of the euro relation differs from the equivalent equity relation. Our quantile regressions show that both the positive and negative contemporaneous returns of the euro result in increased volatility in the extreme quantiles of the conditional distribution, with the contemporaneous effect showing a stronger relation when the euro depreciates. We also find that the volume of the euro‐currency ETF options affects the return–volatility relation for the euro ETF. Overall, the results here expand the concept originally restricted to equities, with the surprising results that the return‐implied volatility relation is weaker and the asymmetric return sometimes is positive for the euro currency. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:74–92, 2014     

Cross-sectional regression analysis of return and beta in Japan

This paper investigates the relationship between return and beta using the cross-sectional regression method. Regression of return on beta without differentiating positive and negative market excess returns produces a flat relationship between return and beta. Taking into account the difference between positive and negative market excess returns yields significant conditional relationships between return and beta. The conditional relationship between return and beta is found to be in general better fit when the market excess return is negative than positive in terms of the goodness of fit measures such as R² and the standard error of the equation.     

Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets

This article examines stock market volatility before and after the introduction of equity‐index futures trading in twenty‐five countries, using various models that account for asynchronous data, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric volatility responses, and the joint dynamics of each country's index with the world‐market portfolio. We found that futures trading is related to an increase in conditional volatility in the United States and Japan, but in nearly every other country, we found either no significant effect or a volatility‐dampening effect. This result appears to be robust to model specification and is corroborated by further analysis of the relationship between volatility, trading volume, and open interest in stock futures. An increase in conditional covariance between country‐specific and world returns at the time of futures listing is also documented. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:661–685, 2000     

Bitcoin and sentiment

Baker and Wurgler identify high sentiment betas with small startup firms that have great growth potential. On the surface, cryptocurrencies share important features in common with high sentiment beta stocks. This paper investigates the degree to which, during the period July 18, 2010–February 26, 2018, the return to bitcoin displayed the characteristics of a high sentiment beta stock. Using a sentiment-dependent factor model, the analysis indicates that in large measure, bitcoin returns resembled returns to high sentiment beta stocks. Additionally, we show that bitcoin's expected returns are low when sentiment measured by Volatility Index is high while expected returns are high when sentiment is low.