Estimating the connectedness of commodity futures using a network approach

Using a network approach of variance decompositions, we measure the connectedness of 18 commodity futures and characterize both static and dynamic connectedness. Our results show that metal futures are net transmitters of shocks to other futures, and agricultural futures are vulnerable to shocks from the others. Furthermore, almost two-thirds of the volatility uncertainty for commodity futures are due to the connectedness of shocks across the futures market. Dynamically, we find connectedness always increases in times of turmoil. An analysis of connectedness networks suggests that investors could be forewarned that the connectedness of various classes of futures could threaten their portfolios.     

The market quality of commodity futures markets

To study the market quality of commodity futures markets, we construct a commodity futures market quality index from the perspective of liquidity, efficiency, and volatility. Based on the market quality index, the Chinese commodity futures market operates steadily. The metal futures market is more efficient and stable than the market for agricultural futures. The Chinese commodity futures market is less liquid and more volatile than the U.S. market. We examine the determinants of market quality and find that macroeconomic variables and futures market contracts are significantly related to the market quality of Chinese commodity futures.     

When trading options is not the only option: The effects of single-stock futures trading on options market quality

We use the 2008 short-selling ban to examine the impact of single-stock futures (SSFs) trading on options market quality. We show that there is a substitution effect between options trading and SSFs trading during the ban period. In addition, our results show that SSFs trading had a significant effect in narrowing the bid-ask spreads of options contracts. Moreover, compared to stocks without SSFs, stocks with SSFs were less likely to violate put-call parity during the ban period. Our results suggest that SSFs trading helps mitigate the negative effect of the short-selling ban on options market quality documented in the literature.     

股指期货对股票市场的影响分析

中国股票市场发展至今已有近18年的历史,多年来,由于缺乏有效的风险对冲工具,市场一直处于一条腿走路的尴尬局面.而股指期货的推出必将对股票市场产生重大影响,本文将就此做简要的分析.     

我国股指期货市场羊群行为实证研究

通过比较分析CSSD和CSAD两种常用的关于羊群行为研究的方法。基于横截面绝对偏离度（CSAD）方法并结合APMA—G媪CH模型对上市以来的我国股指期货市场“羊群行为”进行了实证研究，结果表明，我国股指期货市场存在着不显著的羊群行为。我国股指期货上市时间不久，这种轻微的羊群行为应该值得相关部门的关注，可以采取健全和完善股市的信息披露制度、加强股指期货市场监管和风险教育等相关措施，防止羊群行为的进一步扩散。     

Market openness and market quality in gold markets

This paper studies the impact of market openness on market quality in gold markets, by investigating the openness event that occurred when the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) launched an international board (SGEI) for foreign investors in China. Investors prefer to trade on the SGE than the SGEI, probably due to the SGE’s higher liquidity. In addition, using the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold futures as the benchmark, we show the SGE experiences a significant increase in liquidity without a concomitant increase in volatility. Moreover, the SGE’s contribution to international gold price discovery increases after the openness event.     

发展我国期货投资基金研究

国际期货市场发展的历程表明,以机构投资者为主体的投资者结构是期货市场走向成熟的一个重要标志。而期货投资基金正是机构投资者中非常重要的一种组织形式。发展期货投资基金不但有利于解决我国期货市场规模小、流动性差的问题,同时对我国资本市场的持续、健康、稳定发展也将起到巨大的推动作用。发展期货投资基金已经成为整个期货业和资本市场梦寐以求的目标。     

股指期货与股票市场波动性关系的实证研究

以日本的N225指数期货、韩国KOSPI200指数期货和我国台湾地区证交所加权指数(TWSE)期货作为样本,通过GARCH模型的序列建模,从样本总体和分阶段子样本分别对其股指期货推出与股票市场波动性的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,台湾地区的股票市场引入股指期货后现货市场的波动性并未受到影响,而日本和韩国股票市场在引入股指期货之后其波动性加剧,但这种波动性的加剧仅仅是短期性的,长期内并无影响。     

论现代农产品市场体系构建的现实要求

农产品市场体系与农业社会化服务体系、国家对农业的支持和保护体系一起,构成我国农村经济发展的三大体系。社会主义新农村建设必须以现代农产品市场体系构建作为切入点,本文试图从地域差异、季节变化和特色多样来分析现代农产品市场体系构建的现实要求。     

从国际期货定价机制变化看我国期货市场风险管理

在国际金融危机持续的背景下,以石油、黄金为代表的商品价格出现了剧烈震荡,国际期货市场定价机制的变化及期货交易规则的高杠杆效应也使得市场风险被明显放大。面对世界复杂的经济环境及国内通胀压力,如何增强我国期货市场抗风险能力,保护投资者正当利益成为社会各界普遍关心的问题。     

The impact of trading restrictions and margin requirements on stock index futures

Stock index futures in Chinese market have consistently diverged from their theoretical values. In this paper, we try to provide some explanations by proposing an equilibrium model. Although the model itself does not provide analytical solutions, it enables us to conduct extensive numerical studies and compare them with our empirical results on two major Chinese market indices, CSI300 and SSE50. Our results show that the divergence of stock index futures prices from their theoretical values may be due to various trading and regulatory constraints, such as position limits and margin requirements, which play significant roles in Chinese market.     

影响我国农产品期货交易所效率的因素与对策

为了进一步促进我国农产品期货市场的完善与发展,提高我国农产品期货市场的效率,对影响我国农产品期货市场效率的交易所因素进行了具体分析.指出当前我国农产品期货市场在期货交易所的交易方式、组织体制等方面存在的问题.提出建立多样化的与我国农业相适应的期货合约体系、降低交易成本,提高市场效率、进行农产品期货交易所组织体制改革等具体政策建议.     

最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场价格发现功能再检验

通过构建最低收购价政策影响下小麦期现货市场的价格传导机制的理论框架,并选取2015年我国小麦最低收购价政策改革前后两个时期各4年的周度数据,使用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和方差分解对最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场的价格发现功能进行实证研究。研究结果表明:无论是强麦还是普麦,最低收购价政策改革对于小麦期货价格与现货价格均衡关系的形成均具有促进作用;在最低收购价政策改革之前,强麦期货市场不具有价格发现功能,之后这种功能才得以形成,同时普麦期货市场的价格发现功能变得更为显著;小麦期货市场的影响力强于现货市场,在价格发现功能中占据主导作用。     

发展期货市场,推进上海国际金融中心建设

要实质性地加快上海国际金融中心建设的步伐,必须寻找一个可以推动上海金融业迅速发展的突破口。从国际金融中心的发展经验来看,期货市场对于国际金融中心建设的意义非常重大。另外,加入世贸组织以后,中国面临的市场风险日益增大,必须加快发展期货市场,才能有效地防范和化解金融风险,也才能推动上海国际金融中心建设的步伐。     

Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures

We show how trading protocols impede the price discovery process in single stock futures as implicit trade costs outweigh explicit costs. Despite the trade volume dominance, trade costs advantage and leverage efficiency in futures markets, single stock futures account for only 35% of the price discovery vis-á-vis the spot market. Futures market's informational efficiency is adversely affected by market frictions in the form of marketwide position limits, minimum contract values, and margin requirements.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

中国股市与欧美股市的相关性研究

为了分析次贷危机和欧债危机期间欧美股市对中国股市的影响,利用相关数据,对中国股市与欧美股市的相关性进行研究,并分析它们之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动之间的联动性。研究表明,在两次危机期间,中国股市与欧美股市的相关性在逐步加强,中国股市的开盘价比收盘价更易受到欧美股市的冲击,且美国股市对中国股市的冲击远远大于德国股市。     

Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain

This paper examines equity return predictability using the returns of commodity futures along the supply chain in China's financial market. We find that a considerable number of commodities exhibit significant in‐sample forecasting ability at the daily horizon, especially for supplier‐side equity returns. The macroeconomic risk premium effect, captured by the aggregate commodity prices, is an important source for this predictability. The out‐of‐sample results show that for most commodities, the predictability remains both statistically and economically significant, and the forecasting performance improves substantially during recessions or with economic constraints.     

Why and how do foreign institutional investors outperform domestic investors in futures trading: Evidence from Taiwan

A unique data set containing all transactions from the Taiwan Futures Exchange allows us to dissect the long-lasting outperformance of foreign institutional investors in this emerging market. We show that foreign institutional investors comprehensively outperform domestic investors in trade directions, submission types, trading counterparties, order sizes, and order aggressiveness. Although submitting passive orders increases the trading profits of each investor group significantly, particularly for foreign institutions, the most passive domestic trades still lose to the most aggressive foreign institutional trades. We suggest that information advantage plays a more important role than order submission strategy in foreign institutional investors’ superior performance.