共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
We consider a modeling setup where the volatility index (VIX) dynamics are explicitly computable as a smooth transformation of a purely diffusive, multidimensional Markov process. The framework is general enough to embed many popular stochastic volatility models. We develop closed‐form expansions and sharp error bounds for VIX futures, options, and implied volatilities. In particular, we derive exact asymptotic results for VIX‐implied volatilities, and their sensitivities, in the joint limit of short time‐to‐maturity and small log‐moneyness. The expansions obtained are explicit based on elementary functions and they neatly uncover how the VIX skew depends on the specific choice of the volatility and the vol‐of‐vol processes. Our results are based on perturbation techniques applied to the infinitesimal generator of the underlying process. This methodology has previously been adopted to derive approximations of equity (SPX) options. However, the generalizations needed to cover the case of VIX options are by no means straightforward as the dynamics of the underlying VIX futures are not explicitly known. To illustrate the accuracy of our technique, we provide numerical implementations for a selection of model specifications. 相似文献
2.
This study uses multiple maturity-independent variables to examine whether the volatility information implied in the term structure of volatility index can improve the prediction of realized volatility. The empirical results for the S&P 500 index show that, in terms of both the in-sample estimation and out-of-sample forecasting, the term structure variables provide substantial incremental contribution to the models with only level variables. Our empirical results are robust to various forms of volatility, alternative ways to develop the term structure variable, the impact of macroeconomic variables, and alternative underlying assets. 相似文献
3.
In this paper, we propose a parsimonious and efficient model to price derivatives written on VIXs with different horizons. Our model is built on Luo and Zhang's (2012, J Futures Markets, 32, 1092–1123) concept of the instantaneous squared VIX (ISVIX) that is the sum of instantaneous diffusive and jump variances of the SPX return. Modeling the ISVIX as a mean-reverting jump-diffusion process with a stochastic long-term mean, we obtain analytical formulas for VIX options and futures. Estimation with VIX term structure and calibration with VIX options data show that our model performs well in matching both time series and cross-sectional VIX derivatives market prices. 相似文献
4.
In this paper, we examine and compare the performance of a variety of continuous‐time volatility models in their ability to capture the behavior of the VIX. The “3/2‐ model” with a diffusion structure which allows the volatility of volatility changes to be highly sensitive to the actual level of volatility is found to outperform all other popular models tested. Analytic solutions for option prices on the VIX under the 3/2‐model are developed and then used to calibrate at‐the‐money market option prices. 相似文献
5.
This paper studies the forecasting of volatility index (VIX) and the pricing of its futures by a generalized affine realized volatility model proposed by Christoffersen et al. This model is a weighted average of a GARCH and a pure realized variance (RV) model that incorporates each volatility component into the new dynamics. We rewrite the VIX in terms of both volatility components and then derive closed‐form formulas for the VIX forecasting and its futures pricing. Our empirical studies find that a unification of the GARCH and the RV in the modeling substantially improves the forecasting of this index and the pricing of its futures. 相似文献
6.
Using an extended LHARG model proposed by Majewski et al. (2015, J Econ, 187, 521–531), we derive the closed-form pricing formulas for both the Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX term structure and VIX futures with different maturities. Our empirical results suggest that the quarterly and yearly components of lagged realized volatility should be added into the model to capture the long-term volatility dynamics. By using the realized volatility based on high-frequency data, the proposed model provides superior pricing performance compared with the classic Heston–Nandi GARCH model under a variance-dependent pricing kernel, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The improvement is more pronounced during high volatility periods. 相似文献
7.
We study the relationship of the VIX index and the exchange-traded note VXX on various timescales. We find that changes of VIX and VXX are correlated only contemporaneously on timescales of days, but VIX leads VXX on timescales of months. Next, we construct a simple joint model for VXX and VIX which replicates all the key characteristics of these two time series, but in which VIX and VXX are related only via a correlated error term. Therefore, VIX cannot be used as a predictor of VXX and there is no apparent trading profit opportunity. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, we find new evidence for the carbon futures volatility prediction by using the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns as a powerful predictor. The in-sample results show that the spillovers have a significantly positive effect on carbon futures volatility. From the out-of-sample analysis with various loss functions, we find that fossil energy return spillovers significantly outperform the benchmark and show better forecasting performance than the competing models using dimension reduction, variable selection, and combination approaches. The predictive ability of the spillovers also holds in long-term forecasting and does not derive from other carbon-related variables. It can bring substantial economic gains in the portfolio exercise within carbon futures. Finally, we provide economic explanations on the predictive ability of the fossil energy return spillover by the channels of the carbon emission uncertainty and the investor sentiment on the warming climate. 相似文献
9.
In this article we discuss a generalization of the Greek called vega which is used to study the stability of option prices and hedging portfolios with respect to the volatility in various models. We call this generalization the local vega index. We compute through Monte Carlo simulations this index in the cases of Asian options under the classical Black-Scholes setup. Simulation methods using Malliavin calculus and kernel density estimation are compared. Variance reduction methods are discussed. 相似文献
10.
This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on the volatility forecasting power of option-implied volatility. Option-implied volatility is a powerful predictor of future volatility, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. This is consistent with option-implied volatility being largely determined by volatility-informed traders (rather than directional traders) when uncertainty is high. New volatility forecasting models that incorporate such interaction outperform benchmark models, both in- and out-of-sample. The new models also better predict future volatility during the 2008 global financial crisis, for which benchmark models perform poorly. The results are robust to alternative choices of benchmark models, loss functions, and estimation windows. 相似文献
11.
This paper evaluates the ability of alternative option-implied volatility measures to forecast crude-oil return volatility. We find that a corridor implied volatility measure that aggregates information from a narrow range of option contracts consistently outperforms forecasts obtained by the popular Black–Scholes and model-free volatility expectations, as well as those generated by a realized volatility model. This measure ranks favorably in regression-based tests, delivers the lowest forecast errors under different loss functions, and generates economically significant gains in volatility timing exercises. Our results also show that the Chicago Board Options Exchange's “oil-VIX” index performs poorly, as it routinely produces the least accurate forecasts. 相似文献
12.
We extract variance and skew risk premiums from volatility derivatives in a model-free way and analyze their relationships along with volatility index and equity index returns. These risk premiums can be synthesized through option trading strategies. Using a time series of option prices on the VIX, we find that variance swap excess return can be partially explained by volatility index and equity index excess returns while these latter variables carry little information for the skew swap excess return. The results sharply contrast with those obtained for the equity index option market underlining very specific characteristics of the volatility derivative market. 相似文献
13.
James S. Doran 《期货市场杂志》2020,40(6):841-859
Hedging market downturns without sacrificing upside has long been sought by investors. If VIX was directly investable, adding it as a hedge to the S&P 500 would result in significantly improved performance over the equity only portfolio. However, tradable VIX products do not provide the hedge or returns investors seek over long-term horizons. Alternatively, deconstructing VIX to find the key S&P 500 options which drive VIX movements leads to a synthetic VIX portfolio that provides a more effective hedge. Using these options captures correlations and returns similar to VIX, and combined with the S&P 500, outperforms the buy-and-hold index portfolio. 相似文献
14.
We investigate the valuation of volatility index (VIX) options by developing a model with a self-exciting Hawkes process that allows for clustering in the VIX. In the proposed framework, we find semianalytical expressions for the characteristic function and forward characteristic function, and then we solve the pricing problem of standard-start and forward-start options via the fast Fourier transform. The empirical results provide evidence to support the significance of accounting for volatility clustering when pricing VIX options. 相似文献
15.
Long memory in continuous-time stochastic volatility models 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
This paper studies a classical extension of the Black and Scholes model for option pricing, often known as the Hull and White model. Our specification is that the volatility process is assumed not only to be stochastic, but also to have long-memory features and properties. We study here the implications of this continuous-time long-memory model, both for the volatility process itself as well as for the global asset price process. We also compare our model with some discrete time approximations. Then the issue of option pricing is addressed by looking at theoretical formulas and properties of the implicit volatilities as well as statistical inference tractability. Lastly, we provide a few simulation experiments to illustrate our results. 相似文献
16.
17.
Robustness of the Black and Scholes Formula 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Consider an option on a stock whose volatility is unknown and stochastic. An agent assumes this volatility to be a specific function of time and the stock price, knowing that this assumption may result in a misspecification of the volatility. However, if the misspecified volatility dominates the true volatility, then the misspecified price of the option dominates its true price. Moreover, the option hedging strategy computed under the assumption of the misspecified volatility provides an almost sure one-sided hedge for the option under the true volatility. Analogous results hold if the true volatility dominates the misspecified volatility. These comparisons can fail, however, if the misspecified volatility is not assumed to be a function of time and the stock price. The positive results, which apply to both European and American options, are used to obtain a bound and hedge for Asian options. 相似文献
18.
Variance swaps now trade actively over‐the‐counter (OTC) on both stocks and stock indices. Also trading OTC are variations on variance swaps which localize the payoff in time, in the underlying asset price, or both. Given that the price of the underlying asset evolves continuously over time, it is well known that there exists a semirobust hedge for these localized variance contracts. Remarkably, the hedge succeeds even though the stochastic process describing the instantaneous variance is never specified. In this paper, we present a generalization of these results to the case of two or more underlying assets. 相似文献
19.
Adrian Fernandez-Perez Bart Frijns Ilnara Gafiatullina Alireza Tourani-Rad 《期货市场杂志》2019,39(5):612-631
This study develops a dairy implied volatility index (DVIX), derived from New Zealand Exchange traded options on whole milk powder (WMP) futures. We document an inverse return–volatility relation which is asymmetric, where increases in WMP futures prices are associated with larger absolute changes in the DVIX than decreases. In sample, the results strongly suggest that the DVIX has a high information content regarding conditional variance and that the inclusion of historical information further improves the predictive power. Out of sample, we find that the DVIX provides substantial information about future realized volatility. We also document that a combination of historical volatility and the DVIX provides the best out-of-sample forecasts. 相似文献
20.
In this study, we separately estimate the implied volatility from the bid and ask prices of deep out-of-the-money put options on the S&P500 index. We find that the implied volatility of ask prices has stronger predictive power for stock returns than does the implied volatility of bid prices. We identify two sources of the better performance of the ask price implied volatility: one is its stronger predictive power during economic recessions and in the presence of increasing intermediary capital risk, and the other is its richer information about the future market variance risk premium. 相似文献