When is informed trading more prevalent?—An examination of options trading around Indian M&A announcements

This study examines the prevalence of informed trading around proximate-date versus far-date mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Further, different options strategies pursued by informed traders in proximate-date M&As are identified. The results highlight that proximate-date M&As are associated with a significantly higher level of informed trading vis-à-vis far-date M&As. Results on the choice of options strategies highlight that risk-averse, informed traders may pursue a straddle strategy to profit from their private information, while risk-seeking, informed traders may use a vertical call spread strategy. Informed traders desirous of hedging their existing positions may employ a protective put strategy.     

Is options trading informed? Evidence from credit rating change announcements

Using a sample of proactive credit rating changes, this study examines the information content of options trading before news events. Pre-event informed options trading predicts cumulative abnormal returns around credit rating change announcements. The predictability of options trading is more pronounced before announcements of more severe and surprising rating changes. Moreover, the information content of pre-event options trading is greater when the pre-event underlying stock market is less informational, when the options market is more liquid, and in the post–regulation fair disclosure period. Overall results are consistent with informed options trading before credit rating change announcements.     

What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements

This paper shows evidence of informed trading in the natural gas futures market before gas inventory announcements. We examine whether traders can predict the upcoming announcement by processing public information. The results show that the difference between the median forecast of analysts with high historical forecasting accuracy and the consensus forecast can be used to predict inventory surprises. This predictor explains some of the pre‐announcement price drift, suggesting that informed trading before the announcement is likely to be driven by superior forecasting rather than by information leakage. A simple trading strategy conditioned on the predictor would have generated an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.26.     

Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?

In December 2017, both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced futures contracts on bitcoin. We investigate to what extent they provide useful information for the price discovery of bitcoin. We rely on the information share methodology of Hasbrouck (1995, J Finance, 50, pp. 1175–1199) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995, J Bus Econ Stat, 13, pp. 27–35) and find that the spot price leads the futures price. We attribute this result to the higher trading volume and the longer trading hours of the globally distributed bitcoin spot market, compared to the relatively restricted access to the US-based futures markets.     

The entrepreneurial earnings puzzle: Mismeasurement or real?

A review of recent evidence on relative earnings from entrepreneurship versus wage work presents a puzzle: why do individuals become entrepreneurs when entrepreneurs on average apparently earn less than employees? After considering several potential explanations, we empirically analyze one: income underreporting by entrepreneurs. Using a nationwide panel survey representing U.S. households over 15 years, we estimate that entrepreneurs on average earn 4% less per year than employees. However, after correcting for income underreporting, the mean financial gain to entrepreneurship is positive and large, greater than 42%. However, we show that this estimate is built on some unpalatable model assumptions.     

Does trade size restriction affect trading behavior? Evidence from Indian single stock futures market

Algorithmic traders use their advantage of speed to execute a large number of small-sized trades in a very short time. In the presence of a minimum trading unit (MTU) restriction, they are forced to trade at the smallest possible sizes, often restricted by the MTU. Using a novel data set of single stock futures market obtained from the National Stock Exchange of India, we show that the MTU restriction acts as a binding constraint for traders while optimizing trade sizes. Contrary to expectation, we find weak evidence that liquidity is positively impacted by the contract size revision.     

Can night trading reduce price volatility? Evidence from China's corn and corn starch futures markets

Since 2013, China's futures exchanges have implemented night trading for agricultural futures to reduce the overnight risk and price jump of futures products by extending trading hours. This study uses difference-in-differences (DID) to examine the impacts of night trading on daytime price volatility in corn and corn starch futures markets. On the basis of tick-by-tick data for these futures, we find that night trading has significantly reduced daytime volatility and contributed to price volatility stability in the corresponding futures market. Moreover, we make DID estimations for separate daytime sessions and find that the reduction of the daytime volatility takes place mainly during the first trading session. Robustness and placebo tests further support our main conclusions. Our results provide valuable guidance for futures exchanges and regulators seeking to formulate night trading policies for futures and options.     

Stock options,restricted stock,salary, or bonus? Managing CEO compensation to maximize organizational performance

CEO pay has gone through remarkable changes over the past two decades. The most striking new features have been the increased use of stock options in the early 2000s, and of restricted stock since then. Both forms of stock-based compensation are intended to resolve the agency problem that occurs when CEOs do not act in the best interests of stockholders, but each has its advantages and limitations. In this instalment of Organizational Performance, we discuss the history of their use and similarities and differences between the two, and argue that both are often overused. Bonuses based on strategic goals, on the other hand, may be underused. We conclude with a contextual approach to guide boards of directors in making choices among the forms of CEO compensation—stock options, restricted stock, salary, and bonus—to incentivize CEOs to work toward maximizing organizational performance. Briefly, stock options are most appropriate for growth firms, and restricted stock for stable firms. Both forms of stock-based compensation are more appropriate for new than for long-tenured CEOs.     

Should “big food” companies introduce healthier options? The effect of new product announcements on shareholder value

In recent years, big food companies, such as Kellogg, PepsiCo, and Kraft have been under increasing pressure to introduce more healthful offerings to their existing product portfolio. Our research seeks to understand if such announcements are viewed favorably by the stock market. Are firms rewarded for introducing healthy new products? Using established methodologies, we are able to isolate what percent of an increase or decrease in a firm’s stock price can be attributed from such an announcement. Our analysis reveals some interesting results on how healthy new product announcements impact shareholder value. Findings suggest that big food companies are indeed rewarded financially for introducing healthy new products into the marketplace, and this increase is higher than when introducing less healthy products. We also find that positive ingredient additions (e.g., added fiber) are more highly valued than negative ingredient reductions (e.g., reduced sugar). We discuss the significant implications of our findings and provide managerial recommendations.     

Contrarians or momentum chasers? Individual investors’ behavior when trading exchange-traded funds

Conducting the first study of momentum impact on households’ exchange-traded fund (ETF) trading behavior, we find that Finnish households are less contrarian when trading benchmark index ETFs than when trading common stocks. Also, their propensity to chase recent positive momentum is higher when purchasing ETFs than when purchasing stocks. As expected, results are stronger for ETF purchases than sales. Our findings are consistent with hypotheses that households are less overconfident trading index ETFs than common stocks, that contrarian behavior is more often rational when trading stocks than when trading ETFs, and that households trade ETFs for the long run.     

Growth,decline, or metamorphosis?

The first day of the Second International Symposium on New Problems of Advanced Societies held from May 3 to 7, 1976, in Hamburg, was devoted to “Basic Political and Social Problems of the 1980’s”. In the following article those problems are traced back to a number of fundamental failures. Their removal requires, in the authors’ view, a thoroughgoing societal transformation. Subsequently we publish a contribution by Professor Bernard Cazes that also represents an excerpt from his report at the Symposium.     

Service Marketing — Assertion or Asset?

After outlining the various approaches proposed by writers who consider that Service Marketing involves features which make it distinctive, the paper raises three major criticisms of these approaches. In particular it suggests that too much of the discussion of Services Marketing has been producer-orientated. The dangers of such an approach are considered.     

Interest rate risk in long-dated commodity options positions: To hedge or not to hedge?

We empirically assess hedging interest rate risk beyond the conventional delta, gamma, and vega hedges in long-dated crude oil options positions. Using factor hedging in a model featuring stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility, interest rate hedges consistently provide an improvement beyond delta, gamma, and vega hedges. Under high interest rate volatility and/or when a rolling hedge is used, combining interest rate and delta hedging improves performance by up to four percentage points over the common hedges of gamma and/or vega. Thus, contrary to common practice, hedging interest rate risk should have priority over these “second-order” hedges.     

Food Product Development,Food Regulations and Policies—Compatible or Not?

SUMMARY

Laws and regulations govern many aspects of life in order to guide and protect individuals. The Food and Drug Administration regulates the development, production and marketing of foods, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnologies to maintain safe and high quality products for consumers. However, in recent years, food manufacturers seem to have forged ahead of the FDA's regulations and entered uncharted, unregulated areas. This paper examines the impact the FDA has on new food product development, particularly the impact on new technological food products and suggests the use of a team-based approach in evaluating and establishing regulations in the food industry.     

What drives stock market development in emerging markets—institutions,remittances, or natural resources?

In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in a panel of 17 emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia, including both hydrocarbon-rich countries and economies without sizeable natural resource wealth. In addition to traditional variables, we include an institutional variable and remittances among the regressors. We find that (i) both institutions and remittances have a positive and significant impact on market capitalization; and (ii) both regressors matter, especially in countries without significant hydrocarbon sectors; whereas (iii) in resource-rich countries, stock market capitalization is mainly driven by the oil price.