Information share and its predictability in the Indian stock market

The study investigates price discovery in the Indian stock market and finds that spot market plays a dominating role in price discovery when it is estimated for the entire period as a whole. However, periodic measures of price discovery suggest that it does not remain the same throughout the period, but varies with time. Panel data analysis also indicates that spot market is more efficient in price discovery for majority of size and sector panels. Finally, while market state-related variables are found to impact information shares in a majority of the cases, macroeconomic announcements rarely predict the price discovery.     

中美玉米期货市场功能效率比较

价格发现与套期保值是期货市场的基本功能,能够反映期货市场的运行效率。通过对比中美贸易摩擦前后期货市场的价格发现和套期保值功能,分析中美玉米期货市场效率间的差距,探究我国玉米期货市场运行效率低的原因。利用格兰杰(Granger)因果分析、协整检验、分位信息份额模型、套期保值比率及绩效分析方法,定量对中美两国2013—2019年玉米期货及现货的数据进行分析,结果表明,中国玉米期货市场存在较强的价格发现功能,但套期保值绩效不佳。使用前沿分位信息份额模型和滚动格兰杰因果法分析中美两国期现货市场动态关系的区别,发现中国仅存期货市场对现货市场的单向引导,而美国在中美贸易摩擦前表现为玉米期现货市场具有相近的引导能力,套期保值效率较高,中美贸易摩擦增强了其现货市场对期货市场的引导能力,降低了期货市场运行效率。从期现货市场双向引导关系视角来看,中国玉米期货市场效率低的原因主要是现货市场的信息不完全、发展不完善,期现货市场缺少长期稳定的双向引导关系抑制了期货市场功能发挥。中国应全面加强期货市场建设,提升期货市场定价效率,推动农产品期货市场快速健康发展。     

The sensitivity of trading to the cost of information

We examine the impact of changes in real-time data access fees on price discovery in the crude oil futures market. Specifically, we examine differences in price discovery in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contracts traded on two exchanges around three events corresponding to changes in real-time data access fees. We document a decrease in price discovery following two events that increase data access costs. These findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions of Cespa and Foucault that increases in data access costs reduce the number of market participants trading on real-time data and adversely impact price discovery.     

Customer perceived value,satisfaction, and loyalty: the role of willingness to share information

This study proposes and tests an integrative model to examine the relationships among customers’ willingness to share information, satisfaction, perceived value, and loyalty in a retailing context. This study extends research on customers’ willingness to share information from trust and privacy concerns toward key outcome measures such as perceived value, customer satisfaction, and loyalty, and is thus among the first to model customers’ willingness to share information with companies in robust theoretical retailing frameworks. The proposed relationships were tested using data from two retailing contexts – groceries (N = 429) and do-it-yourself (DIY) (N = 895). Findings from the two samples suggest that both perceived value and satisfaction are significant determinants of customers’ willingness to share information with a company. Although some differences emerge in the two studies, structural modeling largely supports the hypothesized framework and positions customers’ willingness to share information as an important antecedent of their loyalty intentions and behavior. This study provides practitioners with preliminary insight into the relationship between willingness to share information and perceived value, customer satisfaction, and customer loyalty. This study advances retailing research, as it is one of the few empirical studies investigating the role of customers’ willingness to share information in driving loyalty and its relationship with perceived value and satisfaction in a retailing context.     

The impact of the US stock market opening on price discovery of government bond futures

We examine price discovery in sequential markets for the 10-year US Treasury note, German bund, and UK gilt futures over the period 2010–2017. We find that price discovery increases after the opening of the US stock market. Order flows in the bond futures markets are more informative for permanent price changes in the 30-min period after the US stock market opens. A placebo test using US statutory holidays confirms our findings. A cross-market analysis suggests that the increased price discovery in the bond futures is related to returns and net order flows of the US stock market.     

城市基础设施与异质性企业生产效率:基于分位数回归的分析

本文在对2002~2007年中国工业企业数据和城市基础设施数据匹配基础上,分位数回归研究表明:道路和电信基础设施对于企业效率影响为负,中等教育基础设施对企业具有正向作用,而高等教育基础设施仅对中等效率企业具有正向影响,医疗基础设施仅对高效率企业具有正向促进作用。此外,按企业所有制分类的稳健性检验发现:道路、电信、教育和医疗基础设施对不同性质和不同效率水平的企业生产效率的促进作用存在较大差异。本文的政策含义是,加强民生基础设施的投资、优化基础设施投资结构有助于企业效率的提升,且企业自身效率的提升和企业所有制结构的改善也有助于提升城市基础设施的边际促进作用。     

The evolution of price discovery in us equity and derivatives markets

This study considers the evolution of price discovery in the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the corresponding exchange traded fund (SPY ETF) over the period January 2002 through December 2013. The study reports evidence that the E-mini futures dominate price discovery at the beginning of the sample period. However, from 2007 onward both the SPY ETF and E-mini futures contribute similar portions to the price discovery process. The level of price discovery is significantly influenced by volume measures and relative levels of transaction costs for both securities.     

我国沪深股市量价关系实证分析——基于分位数回归估计

文章应用分位数回归考察我国沪深股市成交量和收益率之间的关系。实证分析的结果表明：沪深两市的成交量与收益率呈正相关关系,成交量的增加往往伴随着股票价格上涨,而成交量的萎缩则伴随着股票价格下跌;然而在左尾处这种关系受到了扭曲,此时成交量与收益率呈负相关,成交量的增加反而引起股票价格下降。进一步的分析发现,我国股市的涨跌停板制度是引起这种现象的主要原因。     

中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

Absorptive Capacity and FDI Spillovers: Evidence from Quantile Regressions

Using Turkish firm-level data for the period 2003–2010, we look at the relationship between foreign direct investment, absorptive capacity, and spillovers at a disaggregated level, and analyze whether firms operating in different quantiles of the productivity distribution respond differently to foreign presence and changes in absorptive capacity. The results reveal that, for a given level of foreign presence, it pays to increase the absorptive capacity of firms operating in lower quantiles. When it comes to inter-industry spillovers, it is counterproductive to increase the absorptive capacity of firms already operating in higher quantiles, as this diverts resources from other productive activities.     

Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?

We investigate whether commodity futures or options markets play a more important role in the price discovery process in the six most actively traded markets: crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, corn, and soybeans. Using new information leadership techniques, we report new evidence and report that both markets make a meaningful contribution to price discovery in recent times; however, on average, options lead futures in reflecting new information for a majority of these commodities. We find that increased speculation, rather than hedging activity, in commodity derivatives is a key determinant of price discovery in the options markets.     

基于门限分位数回归的网上商品销量影响因素探析

网上商品销售与线下商品销售存在较大不同,为探索其消费模式,需要研究各影响因素对网上商品销量的作用机制。文章基于心理抗拒、贝勃定律、卢因人类行为理论等,对网络消费行为进行系统分析;综合运用分位数回归和门限回归方法,建立了门限分位数回归模型,揭示商品价格、商家信誉评分、商家信誉等级、保障标记数量、商品收藏人气、口碑数量和口碑分数等对销量的非线性异质影响。以受众广泛的iPad air2网上销售为研究对象,实证结果表明：提高商家的信誉等级、增加口碑数量能使高销量商家的销量更高,而保障标记数量的增加对热销有阻碍作用;在非热门商品转向热销品的过程中,增加收藏人气、增加口碑数量和一定价格范围内的提价对低销量商家的销量有促进作用。     

人力资本、人力资本结构与区域经济增长——基于分位数回归方法的经验研究

通过对1993—2006年中国29个省区的人力资本和人力资本结构等相关指标进行测算,运用分位数回归方法考察二者对区域经济增长的影响大小及变动情况。结果表明:(1)在中国,人力资本对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,且在条件分布的不同位置,这种促进作用存在明显差异。人力资本结构对经济增长存在负面影响,低分位点处的负面影响最大,高分位点处的负面影响相对较小。(2)在不同地区和分位点,人力资本和人力资本结构对经济增长的影响大小以及变动情况存在明显差异。     

Trading and information in futures markets

This paper studies the trading behavior of different types of traders (customer type indicators [CTI's]) in corn futures. Nonmembers (CTI4) consume most of the intraday liquidity while local traders (CTI1) as market makers are its main provider. Both groups combine most of the intraday trading volume. Interday trading comes mainly from proprietary accounts (CTI2) and other local traders' trades (CTI3), reflecting their longer-term needs for hedging and speculation. Changes in the overnight positions of the general public (CTI4) and clearing members (CTI2) contribute mostly to daily price discovery, while the positions of CTI3 group reflect possible information advantage about future price movements.     

网上商品热销的影响因素探析——基于分位数回归的实证研究

本研究从网上销售的影响因素出发,采用搜索程序获取了淘宝网的4059个货架1周的销售数据,通过分位数回归方法对不同热门程度产品的价格、信誉、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,随着产品热门程度的提高,信誉的需求弹性不断增强,而价格、保障标记以及口碑的需求弹性却不断减弱。由此表明,产品的价格降低,保障标记级别和口碑的提升都能使销售趋于分散,而提高商家的信誉却能加速销售向热门产品集中,使得"热门更热"。     

Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods

This study examined the dependence between gold and stocks during 2002–18 in seven emerging countries. The study combined the bivariate cross‐quantilogram introduced recently with quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) approaches to conduct comprehensive and complementary analyses. The QQR results for the full sample revealed a weak positive dependence in all the quantiles of gold and stock returns across all the countries selected during mild market conditions. The results for pre and post‐crisis periods largely were consistent with those obtained for the full sample, except for Turkey (pre‐crisis), and China and Indonesia (post‐crisis). The results of the causality test‐in‐mean (return) and that of the causality test‐in‐variance revealed no causal relation between stock and gold in the pre‐crisis period, while causality ran only from gold to some stocks in the post‐crisis period. Further, while there was volatility causality running only from gold to stocks during the pre‐crisis period, the volatility causality between the two markets was very high during the post‐crisis period. Therefore, we suggest that gold may have been a hedge for stocks during the pre‐crisis compared to the post‐crisis period. Further, international risk factors should be considered in optimal investment decisions between domestic and global markets' assets (stocks and gold).     

最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场价格发现功能再检验

通过构建最低收购价政策影响下小麦期现货市场的价格传导机制的理论框架,并选取2015年我国小麦最低收购价政策改革前后两个时期各4年的周度数据,使用ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验和方差分解对最低收购价政策改革背景下小麦期货市场的价格发现功能进行实证研究。研究结果表明:无论是强麦还是普麦,最低收购价政策改革对于小麦期货价格与现货价格均衡关系的形成均具有促进作用;在最低收购价政策改革之前,强麦期货市场不具有价格发现功能,之后这种功能才得以形成,同时普麦期货市场的价格发现功能变得更为显著;小麦期货市场的影响力强于现货市场,在价格发现功能中占据主导作用。     

公司风险投资组合多元化与公司投资者价值创造——基于分位数回归的实证分析

文章基于沪深主板78家上市企业2000-2012期间686个企业观察样本所构成的非平衡面板数据,在控制了企业规模、年龄、资本支出、营收增长率、行业平均Q值等因素后,基于分位数回归模型检验公司风险投资组合多元化与公司投资者价值创造之间的关系以及组织冗余对两者关系的调节作用。研究发现：只有具备一定企业价值水平的公司投资者才可能通过公司风险投资来实现价值创造,并且公司风险投资组合多元化与企业价值创造之间存在复杂的“U形”关系;组织冗余对“U形”关系有积极的调节作用,但企业价值水平不同,则调节效应大小不同,实现价值创造的公司风险投资组合多元化临界值也就不同。因此,企业根据自身资源禀赋（价值水平和组织冗余）来选择差异化公司风险投资策略。     

Price monotonicity violations during stock market crashes: Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options market

This study empirically tests whether price violations, as defined by Bakshi, Cao, and Chen (2000), show different patterns in response to market shocks. Specifically, we analyze the Chinese options market during a period covering a stock market crash and a series of trading restrictions in the Chinese derivatives markets. Our results confirm the significant changes of the defined violations in the face of unexpected shocks, and more importantly, we interpret such variations from the perspective of information spillovers. Our findings suggest that the stock market crash prompts informed traders in the Chinese options market to frequently adjust their positions on put options, exacerbating the misunderstandings and overreactions to new information. Further, the regulatory shock in the derivatives markets diminishes the efficiency of information incorporation for both options and spot markets but does not affect the dominance of the Chinese options market in price discovery.     

Market openness and market quality in gold markets

This paper studies the impact of market openness on market quality in gold markets, by investigating the openness event that occurred when the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) launched an international board (SGEI) for foreign investors in China. Investors prefer to trade on the SGE than the SGEI, probably due to the SGE’s higher liquidity. In addition, using the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold futures as the benchmark, we show the SGE experiences a significant increase in liquidity without a concomitant increase in volatility. Moreover, the SGE’s contribution to international gold price discovery increases after the openness event.