Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.     

“Buying prices” on the commodity futures market

Seemingly an alien land for a food-service chain operator, the futures market can be used as a form of price insurance to counterbalance swings in commodity prices.     

Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?

Using an instrumental variable quantile regression technique, this paper assesses whether country risk and financial uncertainty exert an impact on energy commodity futures prices under different commodity conditional return distributions over the period from January 1994 to July 2017. We also discuss whether the correlations change with different dimensions of country risk, that is economic, financial, and political. The results reveal that country risk and financial stress do have a significant impact on energy commodity returns of futures contracts with different maturities, but their direction, intensity, and significance differ, caused by the distinct market situations and divergent channels of country risk.     

How do firms make money selling digital goods online?

We review research on revenue models used by online firms who offer digital goods. Such goods are non-rival, have near zero marginal cost of production and distribution, low marginal cost of consumer search, and low transaction costs. Additionally, firms can easily observe and measure consumer behavior. We start by asking what consumers can offer in exchange for digital goods. We suggest that consumers can offer their money, personal information, or time. Firms, in turn, can generate revenue by selling digital content, brokering consumer information, or showing advertising. We discuss the firm’s trade-off in choosing between the different revenue streams, such as offering paid content or free content while relying on advertising revenues. We then turn to specific challenges firms face when choosing a revenue model based on either content, information, or advertising. Additionally, we discuss nascent revenue models that combine different revenue streams such as crowdfunding (content and information) or blogs (information and advertising). We conclude with a discussion of opportunities for future research including implications for firms’ revenue models from the increasing importance of the mobile Internet.     

Are single stock futures used as an alternative during a short‐selling ban?

The response of the single stock futures (SSF) market to a short‐selling ban is investigated. The hypothesis is that traders use SSF as a substitute instrument for short‐selling. A significant increase in SSF trading activity is documented, accompanied by narrower spreads. SSF market volatility did not react during the ban, which suggests that the increased trading activity did not weaken SSF market quality. The quality of the underlying market during the ban period is also assessed, with the results suggesting that changes in SSF market activity had neither positive nor negative effects on the stocks’ liquidity, volatility, and volume.     

Speculation and volatility—A time-varying approach applied on Chinese commodity futures markets

Experts have long discussed and empirically investigated whether speculative activity increases volatility on commodity futures markets. Little empirical research, however, analyzes the role of speculators on commodity futures markets in China. Using time-varying vector autoregression models with stochastic volatility, this paper investigates for four heavily traded metal and agricultural contracts, how the relationship between returns volatility and speculation evolves over time. Our findings indicate that speculative activity has little to no impact on volatility. On the contrary, for all commodities examined, returns volatility seems to amplify speculation.     

What's new about new media? How multi-channel networks work with content creators

With the rise and rapid proliferation of digital and online marketing, increased cord-cutting by consumers, and new content being created online, Internet-based advertising is the single fastest-growing ad expenditure category, outstripping TV, radio, and other more traditional media formats. With the rise of new media and the increased content creation, the ability of content creators to manage and guide their brand has become more important than ever. This article investigates one such mechanism for managing the new media phenomenon, the Multi-Channel Network (MCN) model. An MCN is any entity or organization which either partners with content creators or directly produces a variety of distinctive content and works to perform business and marketing functions on the platform in which said content is released. This article investigates the MCN phenomena as it specifically addresses the needs of content creators in the new prosumptive consumer culture that helps inform and create new media content. It highlights strategies for managing and navigating the new media and MCN domain.     

Are regression approach futures hedge ratios stationary?

In contrast to some recent research, this article finds that regression approach futures hedge ratios are stationary. It shows that a previous study's failure to reject the random walk null hypothesis was due to its small sample size and the overlapping hedge ratio calculation approach's bias toward accepting the random walk hypothesis. The impact of overlap on the Dickey-Fuller full model intercept and slope estimates is demonstrated analytically and numerically. Finally, the article shows that out-of-sample hedging performance is not significantly improved by updating the hedge ratios. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:851–866, 1998     

Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?

In December 2017, both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced futures contracts on bitcoin. We investigate to what extent they provide useful information for the price discovery of bitcoin. We rely on the information share methodology of Hasbrouck (1995, J Finance, 50, pp. 1175–1199) and Gonzalo and Granger (1995, J Bus Econ Stat, 13, pp. 27–35) and find that the spot price leads the futures price. We attribute this result to the higher trading volume and the longer trading hours of the globally distributed bitcoin spot market, compared to the relatively restricted access to the US-based futures markets.     

Do futures prices help forecast the spot price?

This study proposes a futures‐based unobserved components model for commodity spot prices. Prices quoted at the same time incorporate the same information, but are affected differently, resulting in the different shapes of futures curves. This model utilizes information from part of the futures curve to improve forecasting accuracy of the spot price. Applying this model to oil market data, I find that the model forecasts outperform the literature benchmark (the no‐change forecast) and futures prices forecasts in multiple dimensions, with smaller average error variation over the sample period and higher chance of smaller absolute error in each period.     

How Much Do You Know about Private Banks？

Magnificent history In China,the private banking sec- tor is relatively new,even though it has a 100-year history in the U.S.and Europe. After originating in Geneva,Switzer- land,private banks have undergone leg- endary growth.     

Can limits-to-arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term-structure modeling?

This paper develops and estimates a two-factor competitive storage model for the purpose of pricing commodity futures. The empirical relevance of the model is evaluated for US natural gas and crude oil futures by comparing the pricing performance to reduced form models. Results suggest jump models, both reduced form and economic, improve modeling due to incorporating pricing discontinuities. Furthermore, the economic model precludes carry arbitrage, which appears relevant for pricing natural gas futures. For crude oil, the reduced form models produce superior pricing under nonstationary market conditions, and the economic model produces superior long-dated futures pricing under stationarity.     

Price discovery in commodity derivatives: Speculation or hedging?

We investigate whether commodity futures or options markets play a more important role in the price discovery process in the six most actively traded markets: crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver, corn, and soybeans. Using new information leadership techniques, we report new evidence and report that both markets make a meaningful contribution to price discovery in recent times; however, on average, options lead futures in reflecting new information for a majority of these commodities. We find that increased speculation, rather than hedging activity, in commodity derivatives is a key determinant of price discovery in the options markets.     

Does maturity matter? The case of treasury futures volume

We find that Treasury futures volume contains information about future economic and financial market conditions. Short- and long-term volumes are economically different: A relatively higher volume in short-term (long-term) Treasury futures is counter-cyclical (procyclical), preceding worse (better) economic and financial conditions. Further, we construct a single factor from futures volumes of different maturities that forecasts the performances of Treasury securities and the corporate debt and equity markets, as well as macroeconomic conditions. Our results are consistent with the notion that futures volumes from different market segments reflect differences in beliefs and contain different information about future financial and economic activity.     

Do trend following strategies work in Chinese futures markets?

We examine the performance of trend following strategies in Chinese commodity futures markets. We provide evidence that trend following‐based technical trading rules yield better performance than the buy and hold strategy on both individual contracts and sorted portfolios. The outperformance is robust to transaction costs, data frequency, sub‐prime crisis, shorting constraint, delayed execution, liquidity and parameters. Finally, the profitability of the trend following strategy may be subject to data snooping bias.     

What about China's Trade Deficit?

With its rapid economic growth over recent years,China has become an important force to be reckoned in the world.The ever-rising trade surplus makes a good example.But does Chinese enjoy a trade surplus with every foreign country? The answer is"No". Official statistics show that China has a trade defi- cit with partners in East Asia including Japan,North Korea and ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Na- tions)countries.In terms of trade structure,China also suf-     

What about the Intended Consequences?

Research that examines race-stereotyped advertising emphasizes the social impact of these representations and overlooks the potential positive effect on advertising effectiveness. The present research examines the effects of race-stereotyped portrayals on advertising effectiveness among both members and nonmembers of a group that is stereotyped in an advertisement. We integrate research on consumer identity, social categorization, and advertising persuasion to hypothesize the process underlying viewers' attitude formation when exposed to advertising featuring a race-stereotyped portrayal. Results of an experiment conducted in South Africa demonstrate that members of the group that is the subject of the stereotyped portrayal (stereotyped viewers) feel offended. At the same time, results suggest that nonstereotyped viewers experience ambivalence when exposed to stereotyped portrayals. Findings highlight the role of viewers' strength of identification and provide guidance to advertisers with regard to the use of stereotyped portrayals in advertising.