Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added

We combine input–output and bilateral trade data to compute the value added content of bilateral trade. The ratio of value added to gross exports (VAX ratio) is a measure of the intensity of production sharing. Across countries, export composition drives VAX ratios, with exporters of Manufactures having lower ratios. Across sectors, the VAX ratio for Manufactures is low relative to Services, primarily because Services are used as an intermediate to produce manufacturing exports. Across bilateral partners, VAX ratios vary widely and contain information on both bilateral and triangular production chains. We document specifically that bilateral production linkages, not variation in the composition of exports, drive variation in bilateral VAX ratios. Finally, bilateral imbalances measured in value added differ from gross trade imbalances. Most prominently, the U.S.–China imbalance in 2004 is 30–40% smaller when measured in value added.     

GVC参与度对中国制造业出口国内附加值的影响研究

基于贸易增加值核算框架,使用2000年~2014年中国18个制造业的样本数据,应用广义最小二乘法实证检验了GVC参与度对出口国内附加值的影响效果。结果显示:参与GVC程度的加深会带动出口国内附加值的增长,进口中间品会降低出口国内附加值,但GVC参与度提高所引起的出口国内附加值增长幅度大于进口中间品所引起的下降幅度,出口国内附加值与GVC地位存在U型关系,行业生产效率的提升、产品国际竞争力的增强和加入WTO都显著提高了出口国内附加值,改变出口国内附加值的测度方法后,上述结果依然稳健。将制造业分为高、中级技术类别,高技术制造业有更强的附加值获取能力,中级技术制造业更多依赖高密集度的劳动投入分享附加值。     

Interindustry flows, non-traded intermediate goods and the theory of effective protection : A general equilibrium analysis

This paper examines the response of net and gross outputs of tradeable goods to changes in tariff structure in the context of a comprehensive general equilibrium model with interindustry flows and non-traded, as well as imported, intermediate goods. There are two major results. First, the nominal rate of tariffs on a tradeable good is shown to correctly indicate the movements of its net output under most general conditions. Second, the (modified and) generalized Corden index of effective protection for a tradeable good is revealed to be in a close relationship with the behavior of its gross output under certain restrictions on the input substitutability of industries.     

我国流通业与制造业协同演进机制的实证研究

运用中国1986年～2010年制造业与流通业的相关数据,采用计量经济模型方法,建立制造业总产值与流通业增加值、资本投入、劳动投入的非线性模型,通过检验即期、滞后1期和滞后2期流通业增加值与制造业总产值之间的定量关系,发现流通业对我国制造业发展具有非常显著的促进作用;研究中还发现资本投入对制造业发展影响作用要比劳动投入更加显著。     

Services Linkages and the Value Added Content of Trade

Working with a set of global social accounting matrices spanning intermittent years from 1992 to 2011, this paper examines the services embodied in trade on a value added basis. Data include not only the direct and indirect contribution of services to value added contained in a given country's exports, but also the extent to which third‐country value added in services, through intermediate linkages of imported goods and services, is also embodied in production and trade. Our data indicate, in line with previous findings, that the ratio of value added to gross trade has been decreasing both for goods and for services, which is consistent with growing vertical production fragmentation. On the other hand, while value added in goods sectors including indirect exports is less than the gross value of exports, in services, it is greater, highlighting the service intensity of trade.     

Border tax adjustments: Do they distort trade?

A familiar proposition asserting the trade-neutrality of uniform, indirect taxes under both the origin and destination principles is re-examined in the context of a world with trade in intermediate goods. A uniform, general sales tax is shown to be trade-neutral under the destination principle, but trade-distorting under the origin principle. A ‘stage of processing’ value added tax is nondistorting under either border tax adjustment principle. The discussion is then related to a proposed change in GATT rules that would require origin principle administration of the European value added tax.     

人力资源价值的货币计量模型探讨

人力资源价值主要计量模式有未来净资产折现法、未来工资报酬折现模式和当期价值计量法。人力资源价值的计量分为人力资源交换价值计量和人力资源当期新增贡献价值计量两部分。通过运用人力资源投入成本群体贡献系数和投入成本个体贡献系数，可以对人力资源补偿价值进行更准确的计量，并可进一步完善人力资源价值货币计量模型。     

Income Inequality and the Financial Industry

The paper examines how the size of the banking industry can affect inequality arguing that the wage share is influenced by the workers’ ability to capture the increases in value added per worker, by the input composition of the productive structure and by the size of the banking industry. Piketty and other literature overlook the latter two elements. After examining Piketty's interpretation, the paper underlines the relevance of considering the financial sector as an industry and ascertains the conditions for a negative influence on the wage share of the input and output composition of the productive structure.     

中国出口制造业投入服务化水平测度——基于贸易增加值视角

本文根据2018版OECD-ICIO数据,采用贸易增加值测算法测度了2005-2015年中国出口制造业投入服务化水平,我们发现:在考虑出口二元结构的条件下,2005-2015年中国制造业整体投入服务化水平平均值为26.89%,呈上升趋势;国内投入服务化水平高于国外且呈现出不断"以国内服务替代国外服务"的变动趋势;相比于一般贸易,加工贸易出口制造业投入服务化水平更高但增速较缓,加工贸易国内服务投入比重较低但服务化增速较快;相比于资本和知识密集型制造业,劳动密集型制造业的高端生产性服务尤其是国内高端服务投入比重较低。     

广东生产性服务业的产业关联效应分析

本文利用投入产出法对广东生产性服务业的产业关联效应进行了研究,发现广东生产性服务业发展速度缓慢,在国民经济中的地位逐步下降,生产性服务业主要为第二产业服务;广东制造业对传统服务业的中间需求不断下降,对知识密集型服务业的中间需求不断增加;生产性服务业普遍具有高附加值、低带动能力的产业特性,对国民经济的推动力普遍大于需求拉动力。     

The “Euro Illusion”: Illusion or Fact?

The changeover to the euro elicited an upsurge of research on the effects of the new currency on consumers’ conversion strategies, price estimates, price evaluations, choices, and purchases. This research includes longitudinal surveys, interviews, and controlled experiments, both natural and in the laboratory. The present article starts with an overview of this research after which it more specifically focuses on research showing an influence of the nominal value, as expressed in different currencies, on price evaluations and consumer choice. For most countries, the transition to the euro led to a lower nominal value currency. A bias known as the “euro illusion” has been documented such that the subjective value of money is influenced in the direction of the nominal value (i.e., in most countries prices and salaries seem smaller when expressed in euros than in the old domestic currency). Although the term was coined in connection with the euro changeover, the nominal representation of a currency has been shown to influence the subjective value of money in unfamiliar currencies other than the euro. Thus, tourists travelling abroad may frequently be subject to such an illusion. Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for the euro illusion. One is the numerosity heuristic and another the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic in conjunction with biased conversion strategies. The size of the euro illusion is influenced by trade-offs between accuracy and effort. Consistent with this hypothesis, task importance, time constraints, familiarity with the conversion strategy, complexity of the conversion strategy, mood, and attitude towards the country or the currency all influence the size of the euro illusion.     

The monetary base or M1? results from a small macromodel

This article investigates the issue of whether M1 or the monetary base should be used as an intermediate target for monetary policy. Because the target variable should be reliably related to future economic activity, each aggregate is used in estimating a small macromodel which consists of a nominal GNP growth equation and an inflation specification. The empirical results indicate that M1 better explains GNP growth and inflation for the period 1960–1980. Forecast errors of GNP growth from 1970–1980 are reduced when M1 is used instead of the adjusted base, although there is little difference between inflation forecasts. Based on the evidence presented in this study, M1 is preferred as the intermediate target variable.     

The global value chain under imperfect capital markets

This paper develops a model to study how suppliers' financial constraint interact with suppliers' position in a global value chain. I embed financial frictions into the property-rights model of the global value chain, as in Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013, 81 , 2127), to derive the optimal allocation of ownership rights along the global value chain. The model predicts that multinational firms are more likely to integrate downstream intermediate input suppliers in countries with weak financial institutions when the production process is sequential complements. Using US intrafirm trade data for the years 2000–10, together with a triple-interaction term between "downstreamness" of an industry, demand elasticity of an industry and financial development of a country, I provide empirical evidence that supports the key prediction of the model.     

Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis

The present paper deals with how the insertion in international trade and global value chains (GVCs) of countries affects their capacity of attracting foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&As). To this end, we combine data for bilateral M&As and trade in value added for the period 2001–15 and estimate an augmented gravity equation. Results indicate that trade openness per se does not favour M&As. Nevertheless, bilateral free trade agreements, heterogeneity of destinations (sources) for exports (imports) of intermediate and final goods, and position and participation in global value chains are relevant for explaining bilateral M&As. Moreover, their role is significantly different depending on the level of development of the home and host countries.     

国内商品贸易与居民消费水平——最终消费品及中间品流通的支撑作用

构建商品自由流通的国内统一市场能够增进消费者福祉。在地区间市场开放的条件下，对于有大量商品销往外地的地区而言，其中相应产业应具有较强的竞争力，且该商品在当地的消费市场应更为发达；而当一个地区特定产业的生产规模较小时，外地商品流入将对当地的居民消费产生支撑作用。进一步地，以中间品流通为基础的国内价值链分工能够提升产品竞争力,表现为大量商品外销的地区中交通运输、批发零售等流通行业活动的中间投入需求较大。以全国31个省2007、2012年投入产出表及经济运行数据为基础构建计量模型进行实证分析，结果印证了上述地区间商品贸易与居民消费水平间的关系机制。由此可以说明，促进地区间最终商品和中间品市场整合对于提升居民消费具有积极意义。     

全球价值链、生产性服务与中国制造业国际竞争力的提升

针对中国制造业在全球价值链( GVC )中的竞争力现状,本文提出GVC视角下中国制造业国际竞争力提升的作用机理：通过加大生产性服务对中国制造业的中间投入,使产业结构不断向“软化”趋势调整,改变之前对加工装配等低端环节的路径依赖,向GVC两端的高附加值环节攀升,从而提高中国制造业在GVC中的分工地位。分工地位提高后,通过对战略环节和资源的控制而获得更多的分工利益,最终达到提升中国制造业在GVC中国际竞争力的目的。     

全球价值链分工下区域贸易协定能降低服务贸易成本吗

全球价值链分工下服务的作用愈发凸显,服务贸易的新形式丰富了区域贸易协定影响服务贸易成本的渠道。本文从中间投入和最终需求两个维度分析了区域贸易协定对不同类型服务贸易成本的影响效果和机制。结果表明:单纯签订区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制作用并不显著,提高区域贸易协定的深度将显著降低服务贸易成本。区域贸易协定可以显著降低中间投入服务贸易成本,对最终需求服务贸易成本的抑制效应不显著。区域贸易协定的服务贸易自由化效果存在非对称性,北北型区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制效应强于南北型。北北型区域贸易协定可以通过减少监管分歧和货物贸易自由化效果外溢两条途径降低服务贸易成本,南北型区域贸易协定则仅可以通过货物贸易自由化的外溢效应来降低服务贸易成本。因此,中国应积极与发达国家开展高质量区域贸易协定谈判,通过提高区域贸易协定深度充分发挥其服务贸易自由化效果。     

新型汇率机制下人民币升值压力累积与释放之选择

目前人民币仍面临由自身价值提高、篮子货币贬值和市场升值预期复合而成的多重升值压力。面对压力,有名义升值、实际升值和压力累积等三种政策方案可供选择。从成本收益量化比较来看,名义升值净成本最低。因此,应在不超过升值压力幅度的范围内允许人民币名义汇率继续缓升,并采取相应的配套措施,以消除货币低估,实现内外均衡。     

The domestic content of Mexico's maquiladora exports: A long-run perspective

This paper studies the domestic value-added content of exports by Mexico's maquiladoras (export-processing firms) during the period from 1981 to 2006. We combine a specific input–output table for maquiladora firms with detailed longitudinal data on outputs and inputs. Policy shifts and major currency devaluations (both taking place in 1982 and 1994) drastically altered the foreign sourcing structure of most maquila firms and conditioned their demand for domestic inputs in the years thereafter. A long-run gradual decline in aggregate domestic value added in maquiladora exports is largely accounted for by the falling domestic content within electronics manufacturing.     

The nature of trade,global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross-country evidence

This study investigates under which circumstances trade has impact on inflation dynamics by examining the independent effects of trade intensity, intra-industry trade and trade on value added. Trade in goods is decomposed into consumption (final) goods and intermediate inputs to deepen the assessment of the role of the globalisation of production activities on inflation dynamics. Open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) analyses suggest that inflation is sensitive to domestic factors and that the relevance of external factors changes with respect to the nature of trade, country groups and time. Vertical intra-industry trade in intermediate inputs and value-added trade play important role, whereas final goods trade has no statistically significant effect on inflation dynamics.