Market power and exchange rate pass-through

In this paper we provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between market power, as measured by market share, and incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The role of market power is examined in the context of a Cournot model, which is estimated with data relating to Japan's presence in the US market. To test for the existence of possible aggregation biases due to sectoral heterogeneity, estimations are carried out on time series data for the total economy and the manufacturing sector and on panel data for five manufacturing industries at the three-digit level of classification, using the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique and the recently developed by [Larsson, R., Lyhagen, J., & Lothgren, M. (2001). Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels. Econometrics Journal, 4, 109–142] multivariate panel cointegration technique. Hypotheses about the degree of pass-through are tested as restrictions on estimated equilibrium pricing equations and robustness tests are performed. The empirical results indicate that Japanese firms have market power and this validates the use of an imperfect competition model. However, it appears that market power is not the only element on which to base the analysis of the incomplete exchange rate pass-through by Japanese firms.     

Trade liberalisation in fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: a CGE analysis for Nepal

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model applied to social accounting matrix database to assess the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of trade with and without exchange rate (EXR) liberalisation in a small, developing and transition economy of Nepal. We implement trade liberalisation simulations under two scenarios: fixed EXR but endogenous foreign savings and flexible EXR but exogenous foreign savings. The second scenario is again subdivided into two parts – higher foreign savings as per the inference of the first scenario, and the constant foreign savings. We conclude that the economy undergoes contraction if import, export and exchange rate liberalisations are all implemented simultaneously. However, if currency appreciation and higher foreign saving inflow are controlled, the overall growth impact is still positive, but additional policy measures are necessary to make the impacts pro-poor.     

The exchange rate pass-through into import prices: the case of Japanese meat imports

Japan is a traditional net importer of food products in general and meat products in particular. Japanese meat imports come from a few countries thus making Japan potentially very sensitive to the swings in one or a few bilateral exchange rates. One of the key contributions of this article is the use of commodity (meats in this case) imports weighted exchange rates in the analysis. The standard practice in previous international agricultural trade studies related to either exchange rate pass-through or pricing to market was to use the aggregate trade weighted exchange rates usually provided by the Central Bank authorities or sources. Beef and poultry import prices indicate partial exchange rate pass-through while import prices of pork indicate zero exchange rate pass-through, primarily due to gate price policy system applied to pork imports. In terms of competitiveness, these results suggest relatively more competitive markets among poultry importing firms, somewhat competitive markets among beef importing firms, while competitiveness of pork importing firms could not be assessed due to existing import policies.     

Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through

Recent research suggests that there has been a decline in the extent to which firms “pass-through” changes in exchange rates to prices. This paper provides further evidence in support of this claim. Additionally, it proposes an explanation for this phenomenon. The paper then presents empirical evidence of a structural break during the 1990s in the relationship between the real exchange rate and CPI inflation for a set of fourteen OECD countries. It is suggested that the recent reduction in the real exchange rate pass-through can in part be attributed to the low inflationary environment of the 1990s.     

State space models for the exchange rate pass-through: determinants and null/full pass-through hypotheses

In this article, we formulate linear Gaussian state space models for the estimation of the exchange rate pass-through of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar, using monthly data from August 1999 to August 2008. The state space/Kalman filtering framework allows the investigation of some empirical aspects previously suggested in the literature, such as time-varying coefficients and null/full pass-through hypotheses. We also test whether some theoretical ‘determinants’ of the pass-through are statistically significant in the period considered. The principal findings are as follows: (1) the data offer strong support to a time-varying pass-through; and (2) the variance of the exchange rate pass-through, the monetary policy and the trade flow have shown to be relevant determinants of the exchange rate pass-through.     

Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in industrial economies

This article presents theoretical arguments for a nonlinear pass-through relationship for import and export prices and investigates the relationship empirically. The theoretical argument is based on the menu-cost approach in which small absolute changes in exchange rates may not prompt price changes because the costs of doing so exceed the extra profits generated for firms involved in international trade. This relationship is investigated empirically using quarterly data for the period 1979q1-2015q1 for a sample of 17 countries. In the case of import prices, evidence is found of nonlinear adjustment consistent with the theoretical model in 4 out of 17 cases. In the case of export prices, such a relationship is only evident for two economies in the sample. However, for both the import and export price cases, a significant positive nonlinear relationship is found for the two largest economies in the sample, i.e. the United States and Japan.     

Exchange rate pass-through: The case of China

This paper studies the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import and consumer prices in China with both the ratio of China’s imports to GDP and domestic prices of China’s main trade partners going up. Statistic results show that the degree of ERPT is somehow less than the degree of marginal cost plus mark-up pass-through of exporters, and econometric analyses reach the same conclusion. Besides, the ERPT to import prices is found to be high while the ERPT to CPI is low owing to some factors that obstruct the import prices pass-through channel to domestic CPI. But this situation has been changing significantly since August 2005. Thus, a more flexible exchange rate system is needed for China to absorb the price shock from aboard efficiently.     

Differences in exchange rate pass-through in the euro area

This paper focuses on the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports made by euro area countries originating outside the area. Using data on import unit values for 13 different product categories for each country, we estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries for all euro members. In the short-run, pass-through rates differ across industries and countries and are less than one. In the long-run neither full pass-through nor equality of pass-through rates across industries and countries can be rejected. Differences exist across euro area countries in the degree that a common exchange rate movement gets transmitted into consumer prices and costs of production indices. Most of these differences in transmission rates are due to the distinct degree of openness of each country to non-euro area imports rather than to the heterogeneity in the structure of imports.     

Constraints on exchange rate flexibility in transition economies: a meta-regression analysis of exchange rate pass-through

This article uses Meta-Regression Analysis (MRA) to investigate exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, highlighting differences between transition and developed economies. A total of 23 studies yielded 575 coefficients measuring exchange rate pass-through to import prices and consumer prices for 23 developed and 12 transition economies. The MRA results confirm the finding of many particular analyses that exchange rate pass-through is less than complete. In addition, exchange rate pass-through is higher to import prices than to consumer prices; and exchange rate pass-through is higher in the long run than in the short run. Regarding transition and developed economies, MRA suggests that there is no statistically significant difference in exchange rate pass-through to import prices. Yet, exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is significantly and substantially higher in transition than in developed economies. This finding is consistent with the caution of many monetary authorities in transition economies regarding exchange rate flexibility.     

Data frequency and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from India's exports

This paper studies the pricing behavior of Indian exporters using both annual and monthly data in order to uncover the role of data frequency in determining variation in the degree of short and long-run exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). Export price data during the post-1991 economic reforms period is disaggregated at the two-digit industry level and using a novel methodology in the ERPT literature (cointegration for heterogeneous panels) cross-industry differences in adjustment are identified. We observe that there is clear evidence of incomplete ERPT to prices in India's export markets, after having controlled for the level of exchange rate volatility and domestic inflation as an indicator of variations in marginal cost. The empirical results indicate that monthly data reflect more incomplete ERPT to destination market prices, relative to annual data, in which all the short run rigidities are more likely to have been adjusted. Thus studies that use higher frequency data are more likely to find incomplete ERPT in the short-run, even in the context of an emerging market economy. In the long-run, incomplete ERPT subsists in a few industries for both data frequencies.     

Invoice currency choice,nonlinearities and exchange rate pass-through

ABSTRACT

Estimating time-varying thresholds as a proxy for exporter’s predicted exchange rates, this study proposes a new approach to analyse possible asymmetric behaviour of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) or pricing-to-market (PTM) in Japanese exports between yen appreciation and depreciation periods. Constructing the industry-specific nominal effective exchange rate on a contract (invoice) currency basis, we perform the multivariate threshold near-vector autoregressive (near-MTVAR) estimation and reveal a strong tendency of symmetric ERPT in the short-run, between yen appreciation and depreciation periods. From the 2000s, however, Japanese machinery exporters increased the degree of PTM even in the long-run, while other industries raised the degree of long-run ERPT, reflecting the difference of product differentiation across industries. This evidence has significant implications for the recent unresponsiveness of the Japanese trade balance to the large depreciation of the yen.     

The effect of firm-level productivity on exchange rate pass-through

A heterogeneous-firm trade model can explain the recent decrease in exchange rate pass-through to aggregate US import prices as a result of decreased trade costs. This paper finds support for this explanation by testing another implication of this type of heterogeneous firm model: lower exchange rate pass-through for goods that are traded for short periods of time.     

Financial constraints,firm entry,and exchange rate pass-through

Using a heterogeneous firm model with firm entry and endogenous markups, I study how the financial constraints of exporting firms affect exchange rate pass-through behaviors. I find that the financial constraints increase the degree of exchange rate pass-through.     

Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan

This paper incorporates deflation in an analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through and inflation. Using a nonlinear model based on monthly data of Taiwan's import prices from 1981 to 2008, we find that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is increasing in deflation. The increase becomes smaller when the price of oil is excluded. Evidence for pass-through increasing in deflation has not previously been found in the existing literature and presents a new understanding of the pricing behavior of firms. Poor profits in deflation cause firms to pass through most of the cost of exchange rate changes to their products to avoid exiting the market.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

Monetary policy credibility and exchange rate pass-through: Some evidence from emerging countries

Considering external constraints on monetary policy in emerging countries, we propose a semi-structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) to examine the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. We demonstrate that a lower exchange rate pass-through is associated with a credible monetary policy aiming at controlling inflation. The empirical results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is higher in Latin American countries than in East Asian countries. The exchange rate pass-through has declined after the adoption of an inflation targeting monetary policy.     

Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass-through

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass‐through implies uncertainty about policy multipliers and the impact of state variables on stabilization objectives. When faced with uncertainty about the strength of exchange rate pass‐through, policymakers will make less costly errors by overestimating the strength of pass‐through rather than underestimating it. The analysis suggests that pass‐through uncertainty of the magnitude considered does not result in efficient policy response coefficients that are smaller than those under certainty.     

Exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy: the Anglo-Irish case

Bilateral import unit values are constructed to investigate the extent and speed of exchange rate and production cost pass-through into the unit values of Irish imports (total and sectoral) from the UK using Menon's (1996 Menon, J. 1996. The degree and determinants of exchange rate pass-through: market structure, non-tariff barriers and multinational corporations. Economic Journal, 106(435): 434–44.  ) mark-up model. The approach used to measure exchange rate pass-through is based on cointegration and error-correction modelling and the period of analysis is from 1979 to 1995. Full pass-through from the bilateral Irish pound–Sterling exchange rate and from UK producer costs could not be rejected for total and sectoral import unit values for the sample period 1979q1–1995q4. This implies no role for domestic competing prices in explaining the long-run relationship determining unit values of Irish imports from the UK. The results indicate that for aggregate and sectoral unit values of Irish imports from the UK pass-through is incomplete in the short-run.