中国经济周期波动中的消费行为特征研究

我国居民收入对消费波动具有显著的长期影响,消费与收入基本上沿着均衡路径运行;居民消费已经具有了一定的生命周期意识;居民边际消费倾向与平均消费倾向呈现不同的走势;我国居民消费敏感度较低,表明我国居民中将当期收入完全用于消费的人数很少,说明了我国居民的消费行为具有跨期平滑的特征。     

Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes

This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one‐quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range of real and financial leading indicators, several parsimonious one‐quarter‐ahead models are developed for the GDP regimes, with model selection based on the SIC criterion. A real M4 variable is consistently found to have predictive content. One model that performs well combines this with nominal UK and German short‐term interest rates. The role of the latter emphasises the open nature of the UK economy.     

经济周期非对称性研究述评

经济周期非对称性在计量经济学及统计方法的推动下得到越来越多的研究。近几十年来,研究集中在陡峭型和深度型(急剧型)的非对称性上。应用政策经济学的兴起,使得对经济政策的研究与非对称性结合起来,为人们重新思考政府政策提供了理论的证据。本文按照这些线索展开综述,期望通过对已有文献的梳理,为人们从更深的层次理解中国的经济波动以及中国的市场体制改革提供一个有益的视角。     

Business Cycle Volatility in Germany

Abstract. Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ‘good luck’.     

世界经济周期研究述评

本文对世界经济周期的概念、存在与否、产生原因、中国经济与世界经济的协同性等方面的研究成果进行了综述,并提出了进一步研究的方向。     

Inventories and the Business Cycle*

This paper examines the relationship between the inventory cy and the business cycle using both macroeconomic and survey da It is argued that over the past decade and a half, the changes inventory management have reduced the amplitude of the inventc cycle. The paper also argues that the behaviour of inventories consistent with demand shocks being an important source of business cycle fluctuations.     

Foreign Aid and the Business Cycle

This paper documents empirical regularities in the foreign aid flows to developing countries over three decades. In spite of a large body of literature on foreign aid and its impact on recipients, surprisingly little is known about its business cycle characteristics. The authors show that for the vast majority of African recipients, aid flows are a major source of income that is highly volatile and, most importantly, overwhelmingly procyclical. For recipients outside of Africa, there is a similar—if somewhat less pronounced—pattern of aid procyclicality. In contrast, there is little evidence of aid procyclicality with the business cycle of donors. In light of the very high volatility of output in developing countries, the procyclicality of foreign aid flows from the recipients' perspective raises serious questions related to their welfare and growth.     

Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence

This paper uses the Triples test of Randles et al. (1980, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 168–172) to detect asymmetries in U.S. as well as international GDP fluctuations. The test does not detect any asymmetry in the distribution of the U.S. GDP, which is consistent with previous empirical findings. However, significant asymmetries are found in international data. Detection of asymmetries is a first step toward model-selection process such that stylized facts can be replicated. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E3, E32, C14.     

International Trade and the Business Cycle

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.     

20世纪90年代以来我国经济周期划分及特征分析

20世纪90年代以来,随着我国市场经济体系的不断建立和完善,经济周期波动的特征也发生了很大变化。观察总体经济增长的动态发展,研究宏观经济周期波动和发展趋势,应选择一个最能反映国民经济活动水平的总量指标,这个指标就是国内生产总值(GDP)指标。而经济周期考察的重点是相对指标即经济增长速度,而不是绝对指标,所以,本文选用国家统计局调整后公布的GDP增长率(可比价)指标^①对我国经济波动趋势进行分析。     

Real Business Cycle Models: An Introduction

In this article we present a simple real business cycle (RBC) model, in order to show that these models capture many of the features of business cycles in the real economy. While these models are very abstract, we argue that they are a useful way of thinking about the macro-economy. RBC models have also been influential in refocusing attention on supply issues in macroeconomics, after a long postwar focus on aggregate demand management in Australia and most other western economies. Policies such as structural reform and labour market reform are clearly aimed at influencing the supply side of the economy and productivity, and can be understood within the framework of RBC theory. RBC models have developed rapidly recently, yet there remains a good deal of misunderstanding about the methods and aims of these models. In this article we present a review of the literature and examine a simple model, using graphical techniques, to clarify some issues. We also argue that these models, while having limitations, have caused a fruitful re-examination of supply issues in economics, after the almost exclusive focus on aggregate demand in macroeconomics until the late 1970s.     

Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union

This paper examines whether there exists a close correspondence in the business cycles of the EU economies. We focus on the timing and magnitude of business cycles and propose criteria for defining close correspondence. We suggest that any correspondence that does exist is confined to the EU core and that, contrary to some of the existing literature, there exists a clear core-periphery distinction. This makes us less optimistic about the prospects for EMU if it is not accompanied by institutional arrangements that take into account the differences between EU economies.     

Business Cycle Accounting for Peripheral European Economies

Using the Business Cycle Accounting methodology, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the EMU‐periphery economies before and during what was called the sovereign debt crisis. TFP dynamics and the labor wedge explain most of the dynamics before and during the crisis. The bond wedge, corresponding to the risk premium, made a low contribution, moving counter‐cyclically. The capital wedge made a modest contribution to the fall in output during the crisis. Additional evidence links the dynamics of the TFP and the labor wedge with changes in the interest rates and a spike in import prices at the onset of the crisis, corresponding to the general mechanisms of the large capital inflows, in the wake of the introduction of the Euro, followed by sudden stops.     

Social Security Contributions and the Business Cycle

We investigate business cycle dynamics of social security contributions (SSC), by far the largest labor tax distortion in the OECD. In most countries, we find a negative covariation of SSC tax burdens with levels and growth of GDP at business cycle frequencies and lower. In detrended data, a decline of GDP of 1% is associated with a 0.05-0.2 percentage point increase in the aggregate SSC burden, measured as a fraction of the wage bill. For most countries, average marginal SSC rates exceed, but track average rates. Changes in average SSC tax burdens are largely due to adjustments in statutory tax schedules rather than cyclical shifts in earnings distributions. Our findings are consistent with Esping-Andersen's (1990) typology of social welfare states. In some countries, SSC rates co-move with measures of the “labor wedge” (Chari et al. 2007, Brinca et al. 2016).     

Public Employment and the Business Cycle*

We add a public employment sector to the basic search and matching model in order to study the business cycle impact of public wage and employment policies. The government is assumed to follow exogenous rules for public wages and employment calibrated to match some cyclical features of US policies. These features include a positive public wage premium and mildly procyclical public wages and employment. We find that the presence of the public sector increases the volatility of employment and output.     

Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle

This paper documents changes in the cyclical behavior of nominal data series that appear after 1979:Q3 when the Federal Reserve implemented a policy to lower the inflation rate. Such changes were not apparent in real variables. A business cycle model with impulses to technology and a role for money is used to show how alternative money supply rules are expected to affect observed business cycle facts. In this model, changes in the money supply rules have almost no effect on the cyclical behavior of real variables, yet have a significant impact on the cyclical nature of nominal variables.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E32, E42, E50.     

试论反倾销会计的若干问题

中国严峻的国际反倾销形势，迫切需要建立反倾销会计。本文就国际反倾销与反倾销会计保护机制、反倾销会计信息平台与竞争对手会计、国际反倾销法会计规则的解读、市场经济地位的会计要求等反倾销中的会计问题进行探讨。