The Impact of Innovation on Employment in Services: Evidence from Italy

This article investigates the employment impact of innovation in services, using the data gathered through the 1993-95 Italian innovation survey. The empirical evidence shows that the impact of innovation on employment varies greatly across industries and according to the level of qualification of the labour force. Among small firms and in less than a half of the service sectors considered, the employment impact of innovation is positive, particularly in industries that have a strong scientific and technological base. A negative impact of innovation on employment is, on the contrary, found among large firms, capital-intensive industries and in all financial-related sectors (banking, insurance and other financial services). In these industries the labour-saving effect of innovation seems to be linked to the widespread use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) which displace the least qualified employees. In the case of Italy, an overall negative impact of innovation on employment is found. It is argued that this result is affected by the Italian economy's specialisation in the most traditional service industries.     

The effects of the new communications media on employment

The post-World War II economic growth happened in a context of significant productivity gains in the industrial sector and an increasing demand for services, where productivity gains remained quite low. This explains the strong expansion of employment in the tertiary sector relatively to the industrial sector. In the 1970s, this growth pattern reached a crisis point: in most Western economies, productivity gains lagged in the industrial sector while no visible changes occurred in productivity in the service sector.With the more widespread use of data processing and the emergence of new communication media, this trend showed signs of reversal. Information handling activities showed considerable productivity gains, rivaling those previously seen in industry. And the spur for technical progress, once limited to the industry, appears to have spread to the services and information sector.With respect to employment, this tendency could lead to a reduction in employment in the tertiary sector. So the new technologies would come about at the worst possible moment, with all time high unemployment rates in Western economies.So it is not surprising to see the current temptation to delay the process, or to adopt a so called “two-speed growth strategy”: the strongest productivity gains would be enhanced in the traded sector (mostly the industrial sector) where foreign competition is most prevalent; and the resulting cost on employment would be offset by maintaining low productivity levels in the protected sector which, to the present, has typically been the services sector.The present analysis takes a more optimistic stand-point on the net effect of technical progress on employment. The authors focus on the interplay between productivity in the exposed sector and productivity in services, with emphasis on the necessity for decreasing unit costs in the protected sector, enabling the traded sector to remain competitive.     

国际服务外包、就业与工薪差距:基于中国工业行业数据的实证分析

笔者利用投入产出表以及工业行业面板数据对国际服务外包的就业效应及工薪差距效应进行了实证检验,结果显示:工业行业国际服务外包促进了就业,并且扩大了高技能劳动力与低技能劳动力的工薪差距.当考虑行业要素密集度差异时,国际服务外包对资本密集型行业和劳动密集型行业的就业和工薪差距均有正向扩大作用,但在资本密集型行业这种扩展效应更大.     

经济全球化、就业替代与中部地区的"边缘化"

20世纪90年代以来,随着我国对外开放程度不断加深、外商直接投资不断扩展,沿海地区的区位优势得到充分体现,以劳动密集产业和高新技术产业为主的制造业发展迅速,这些地区正在以一种反梯度模式进行着其特殊的"再工业化"过程,并形成对内地国有部门和传统工业地区的刚性就业替代。人口外迁、就业萎缩、经济地位下降,中部地区在经济全球化过程中正在显现被"边缘化"的趋势。     

The industry life-cycle of the size distribution of firms

This paper analyzes the evolution of the distributions of output and employment across firms in U.S. manufacturing industries from 1963 until 1997. The firm size distribution changes significantly as an industry goes through stages of its life-cycle. The evolutions of the employment and output distributions also differ significantly, but display strong inter-industry regularities, including that the nature of the evolution depends on whether the industry is experiencing growth, shakeout, maturity, or decline. The observed patterns have implications for theories of industry dynamics and evolution.     

Trade liberalisation,poverty, and inequality in Vietnam: a quantile regression approach

This study examines the effects of trade liberalisation on rural household welfare, poverty, and inequality in Vietnam, with the use of multiple estimation strategies, including the panel quantile regression approach based on Canay's two-step estimator. Taking account of the multi-faceted nature of trade liberalisation, we consider a set of household-level trade-related variables, including employment in export, import-competing, and manufacturing sectors. A unique panel data set is constructed from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys conducted in 2002, 2004 and 2006. We find that employment in trade-related sectors contributes significantly to rural household welfare. Moreover, the effects of trade-related employment on welfare are heterogeneous across the welfare/income distribution, in that trade-related employment sectors have different influences on different groups/quantiles of households.     

Is there a life cycle in all industries? First evidence from industry size dynamics in West Germany

We propose a novel nonlinear regression approach to test whether the size of industries develops over time along the stylized pattern assumed by the industry life cycle theory. We apply our model on data covering the full spectrum of 205 NACE industries including services in West Germany between 1976 and 2009 and four indicators describing industry size (employment, establishments, entries and exits). The results of our large scale analysis show that in most industries indeed size develops along a cyclical path, albeit this development is not universal. Furthermore, we provide first empirical evidence on service industries where we show that the number of establishments and employees frequently develop in line with what is found for most (product) industries.     

后危机时代加拿大制造业的发展及其启示

制造业是加拿大经济中最重要的财富创造部门,也是加拿大最大的私营经济部门。2010年至今的数据表明,加拿大制造业的产值、就业、产能利用率、投资和利润等核心指标均正在逐步恢复至全球金融危机前的2008年左右的水平。2011年,加拿大制造业资本性支出大幅回升,利润达到历史最好水平,制造业已成为加拿大通过扩大产能推动增长的重要力量。目前,加拿大制造业面临的挑战主要是:增值产品出口状况恶化,企业创新投入不足、创新能力匮乏,市场需求不足等。为应对挑战,加拿大政府采取了一系列推动制造业走向更加先进、知识技术更加密集以及创造更多的高水平就业的政策措施。加拿大制造业恢复发展的经验以及应对挑战的政策措施,值得我国制造业借鉴。     

中国发展服务贸易的就业效应分析

近年来,随着中国人口的急剧增长,服务业对就业吸纳所发挥的作用越来越重要,服务贸易对就业的带动作用是众多学者所思考的问题。通过对中国服务业、服务贸易的就业结构、服务贸易就业总量,以及服务贸易逆差对就业影响的深入分析,可以得出以下结论：应继续加强中国劳动密集型服务业的出口,更重要的是应该加强知识密集型的生产者服务业的发展,将外资引入生产者服务业,这是让服务贸易吸纳更多就业。提高就业质量的最好途径。     

Hit by the Silk Road: how wage coordination in Europe mitigates the China shock*

Coordination in collective wage setting can constrain potential monopoly gains to unions in non-tradable industries. Countries with national wage coordination can thus stabilize overall employment against fluctuations and shocks in the world economy. We investigate this argument by exploring within-country variation in exposure to competition from China in 13 European countries. Our estimates demonstrate that in countries with uncoordinated wage setting, regions with higher import exposure experienced a marked fall in employment, while countries with wage coordination experienced no such employment effects. We show that our findings are robust to alternative measures of wage coordination, industry classifications, and trade exposure.     

生产性服务业对制造业就业的影响研究——以上海为例

文章基于上海制造业27个细分行业1997-2009年的面板数据,就生产性服务业对上海制造业就业的影响进行了实证研究.结果显示,整体而言,生产性服务业对上海制造业就业具有显著的积极影响.但是,生产性服务业对上海制造业就业的影响程度与制造业和生产性服务业的异质性相联系.具体而言,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业对三种要素密集型行业就业的提升都有显著影响;科学研究技术服务业的发展对资本和技术密集型行业的影响有积极作用,但对于劳动密集型行业的影响则不明显;而交通运输仓储争邮政业、金融业和房地产业对三种要素密集型制造业就业影响的替代效应高于促进效应.最后,指出了发展现代生产性服务业对上海制造业就业提升的重要意义和相关政策建议.     

国际贸易、技术转移与经济增长——基于中国工业产业面板数据的实证研究

基于中国工业产业面板数据,实证研究了国际贸易的技术转移及其技术外溢效应对中国技术水平提升和经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：通过国际贸易渠道来自OECD成员国的技术转移对中国工业产业的技术进步产生了积极影响;美国和日本通过国际贸易对中国工业产业技术进步的拉动作用明显高于其他发达国家。     

IS NORTH‐SOUTH TRADE‐RELATED TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION REGIONAL?

There is an influential literature on trade-related technology diffusion. This article contributes to that literature by investigating whether north-south trade-related technology diffusion has a regional dimension. To do so, we build a weighted foreign research and development index at the industry level to account for international and interindustry technology spillovers. Using parallel analysis for nine developing countries, we find: (1) north-south trade-related technology diffusion is strong and significant and (2) north-south technology diffusion tends to have a regional dimension: developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East tend to benefit, respectively, more from trade with Japan, North America, and Europe than from trade with other northern regions. ( JEL F1, F15)     

Entry,market turbulence and industry employment growth

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial dynamics in terms of firm entry, market turbulence and employment growth. Do entry of firms, the composition of industry dynamics (net entry) and market turbulence (entry and exit) influence industrial employment growth? This paper provides an empirical investigation, using unique data for 42 disaggregated Swedish industrial sectors during the period 1997–2001. It is hypothesised that the importance of entering firms, net entry and market turbulence may differ significantly across industries. A quantile regression method is used in order to detect industrial differences in the response to industrial employment growth. The empirical evidence shows that, on the one hand, firm entry and market turbulence have a positive effect on employment for fast growing industries and that the effect is larger for high growth industries. On the other hand, the composition of industry dynamics in terms of net entry rates has a more dispersed effect across all industries, even though the effect of net entry is larger for high growth industries.     

中国劳动力“极化”现象及原因的经验研究

利用1998—2009年中国制造业行业面板数据,本文发现中国的劳动力市场存在就业"极化"现象,即相对于中等技术行业,高技术行业和低技术行业的就业有更大幅度的增加。结合其他的研究,本文的研究表明就业"极化"是一个全球现象。进一步实证分析发现,除了工资和产业规模的影响外,外包、研发投入和高技术资本设备的广泛使用对就业也产生了重要的影响。     

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and labour market adjustment in Canada

Evidence suggests that the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) had almost no effect on earnings and had a small negative effect on manufacturing employment. Theory suggests that a change in trade policy may affect skilled and less-skilled workers differently. The labour market consequences of CUSTA tariff reductions are analysed in this paper. It is found that the tariff reductions lowered employment predominantly among less-skilled workers but did not affect the earnings of either skilled or less-skilled workers. The employment effects are due to the fact that relatively less-skill-intensive industries were more highly protected than high-skill-intensive industries prior to CUSTA.
On montre que l'accord de libre échange Canada-US n'a eu presque pas d'effet sur les gains et un impact négatif faible sur l'emploi dans le secteur manufacturier. La théorie suggère qu'un changement dans la politique commerciale peut avoir un effet différent sur les travailleurs qualifiés et moins qualifiés. Le mémoire analyse les effets des réductions dans les droits de douane sur le marché du travail. Il appert que les réductions des tarifs douaniers ont eu des effets négatifs sur l'emploi des moins qualifiés mais n'ont pas affecté le niveau des gains des qualifiés et des moins qualifiés. Les effets d'emploi sont attribuables au fait que les industries engageant des personnes relativement moins qualifiées étaient davantage protégés avant l'accord de libre échange que les industries employant une main d'oeuvre plus qualifiée.     

三大产业对我国就业问题的影响分析

解决我国的就业问题被人们提到日程,在研究了中国的就业与三大产业产值数据后,笔者认为我国自1992年以来,经历了产业结构的变化,第三产业成为中国就业的新引擎,就业问题的实质性解决有赖于产业结构的进一步优化升级.     

数字经济赋能服务业就业：行业异质性与空间效应

数字经济的发展对实现高质量充分就业具有重要作用,促进服务业就业是实现高质量充分就业的重要抓手。本文基于2011—2019年的地级市面板数据分析了数字经济对服务业就业的影响,并进一步考察了该影响的行业异质性和空间效应。研究结果表明,数字经济有助于增加服务业就业,并且采用中国劳动力动态调查微观数据的分析也得出相同的结论;数字经济主要通过扩张城市人口规模,促进产业结构服务化来增加服务业就业;数字经济对服务业就业的影响存在行业异质性,对流通服务业、个人服务业和生产服务业的就业产生了正向影响,但影响程度存在明显差异,对公共服务业的就业没有产生显著影响;数字经济对服务业就业的影响产生了空间效应,并且该空间效应也存在行业异质性。     

新疆少数民族就业困难群体成因分析——基于结构方程模型的视角

增加少数民族就业困难人员就业是改善新疆少数民族民生的一条重要途径。本文运用结构方程模型（SEM）对少数民族就业困难群体形成的原因进行了分析。结果显示：减轻家庭负担、减少对社保机构的依赖可以改善少数民族就业困难的状况。因而,应通过加大少数民族农村富余劳动力转移力度、加强其自身语言技能水平以及强化职业教育、培育少数民族特色产业等途径帮助少数民族群众就业。     

The employment and wage impact of broadband deployment in Canada

Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent by the Canadian federal and provincial governments to subsidize broadband deployment. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the impact of broadband on employment and wage growth in Canada. Variation in elevation explains the regional difference in broadband coverage and is used as an instrument to estimate the causal effect. We find that the deployment of broadband in 1997–2011 promoted rural employment and wage growth in service industries. Goods industries were not impacted. The findings suggest that broadband helps service industry businesses overcome geographical barriers that have traditionally hampered rural growth.