Establishment Level Earnings,Technology And The Growth Of Inequality: Evidence From Britain

It is often argued that technical change is responsible for the increase in wage inequality in Britain and the United States in the 1980s and 1990s. In this paper we examine this argument using data from individuals and establishments. It is found that the presence of micro-electronic technologies in workplaces is associated with higher earnings, especially for skilled workers. Decompositions suggest that technical change could have been a cause of the increase in skills premium for highly skilled workers. Nevertheless, our view is that the correlation between wages and plant-level technology is mainly driven by the effect of high wages on the propensity to introduce new technologies rather than vice versa. This view is supported by simultaneous models of the wage-technology relationship.     

The diffusion of computers and the distribution of wages

When the costs are decreasing workers adopt technology at the point where the costs equal the increased productivity. Output per worker increases immediately, while productivity benefits increase only gradually if costs continue to fall. As a result, workers in computer-adopting labor market groups experience an immediate fall in wages due to increased supply. On the other hand, adopting workers experience wage increases with some delay. This model explains why increased computer use does not immediately lead to higher wage inequality. More specifically, the results of the model are shown to be consistent with the question why within-group wage inequality among skilled workers as a result of computer technology adoption in the United States increased in the 1970s, while between-group wage inequality and within-group wage inequality among the unskilled did not start to increase until the 1980s. The model also predicts that the more compressed German wage structure leads to a lagged diffusion of computer technology along with smaller changes in wage inequality. Our empirical analysis suggests that this is consistent with the actual developments in Germany since the 1980s. Finally, the theoretical predictions seem to be of the right magnitude to explain the empirical quantities observed in the data.     

Investment-specific technological change, skill accumulation, and wage inequality

Wage inequality between education groups in the United States has increased substantially since the early 1980s. The relative number of college-educated workers has also increased dramatically in the postwar period. This paper presents a unified framework where the dynamics of both skill accumulation and wage inequality arise as an equilibrium outcome driven by measured investment-specific technological change. Working through equipment–skill complementarity and endogenous skill accumulation, the model does well in capturing the steady growth in the relative quantity of skilled labor during the postwar period and the substantial rise in wage inequality after the early 1980s. Based on the calibrated model, we examine the quantitative effects of some hypothetical tax-policy reforms on skill accumulation, wage inequality, and welfare.     

The Rise and Fall of Centralized Wage Bargaining

During the three decades spanning the early 1950s to the early 1980s, the wage‐setting process in most Northern European countries was dominated by centralized bargaining (i.e., peak‐level labor and employer associations set wages nationwide). In the early 1980s, centralized wage bargaining began to collapse. In this paper, we assess a novel explanation for both the initial establishment of a centralized wage‐setting process, and its subsequent collapse. According to our theory, centralized wage bargaining was set up as a response to the spillovers created by the unemployment benefit program. Its collapse was the result of the increase in the productivity gap across workers, brought about by equipment‐specific technological progress and equipment–skill complementarity.     

"Holding hands at midnight": The paradox of caring labor

Abstract

The gender wage gap in the United States narrowed considerably throughout the 1980s and then more slowly in the 1990s. Using a decomposition methodology and US Current Population Survey data, this study investigates the impact of deindustrialization's continuing shift in employment away from manufacturing to services on the US gender wage gap between 1990 and 2001. The study finds that the widening of the gender wage gap in the service sector caused a slowdown in the narrowing of the US gender wage gap. Within the service sector, two occupational elements affected the growing gender wage gap: women's entry into traditionally male occupations characterized by high wages and high gender wage differentials that resulted in the relative increase in men's wages compared to women's wages in these occupations.     

Falling Wage Shares in Europe and the United States: How Important is Aggregation Bias?

This paper sheds light on the importance of aggregation bias in the analysis of wage shares developments over time and across countries. We focus on five European countries and the United States and show that the trend decline in the aggregate wage share observed in these countries over much of the 1980s and 1990s partly reflects changes in the sectoral composition of the economy. The application of a fixed-weight aggregation method changes the profile of the observed wage share in a significant way: in particular there is no longer sign of an overshooting of the wage share levels of the early-1970s. Error-correction wage equations based on the adjusted wage shares generally have a better regression fit and show long-run elasticities of real wages to unemployment that vary less across countries and are substantially lower than those obtained with observed shares.     

Industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading in India

We investigate the relationship between industrial de-licensing, trade liberalization, and skill upgrading during the 1980s and 1990s among manufacturing plants in India. We use a unique dataset on India's industrial licensing regime to test whether industrial de-licensing during the 1980s and 1990s played a role in skill upgrading, as measured by the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers. In addition, we assess the relative contribution of industrial de-licensing and trade liberalization to skill upgrading. We identify two main channels through which industrial de-licensing affects skill upgrading: capital- and output-skill complementarities. Using both difference-in-differences as well as regression discontinuity techniques, we find two important results. First, after controlling for the size-based exemption rule that determined whether or not a plant faced licensing restrictions, industrial de-licensing during the 1980s appears to have increased the relative demand for skilled workers via capital- and output-skill complementarities. Capital- and output-skill complementarities exist for plants in both licensed and de-licensed industries but were stronger in de-licensed industries during the 1980s, prior to India's massive trade liberalization reforms in 1991. Second, regardless of de-licensing, capital- and output-skill complementarities are generally weaker after trade was liberalized during the early 1990s. Together, capital- and output-skill complementarities contributed 75% (57%) and 31% (29%), respectively, of the growth in the employment and wagebill shares of white-collar workers in de-licensed (licensed) industries before trade was liberalized. After trade liberalization, these contributions were smaller. This suggests that trade liberalization may not have played a major role in raising the relative demand for skilled labor during the early 1990s.     

Wage Rigidity,Inflation, and Institutions

We study the possible existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) at wage growth rates different from zero in aggregate data. Even if DNWR prevails at zero for individual workers, compositional effects might lead to falling aggregate wages, while changes in relative wages combined with DNWR might lead to positive aggregate wage growth. We explore industry data for 19 OECD countries, over the 1971–2006 period. We find evidence for a floor on nominal wage growth at 6 percent in the 1970s and 1980s, at 1 percent in the 1990s, and at 0.5 percent in the 2000s. Furthermore, we find that DNWR is stronger in country‐years with strict employment protection legislation, high union density, centralized wage setting, and high inflation.     

Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

A note on Canadian migration to the United States during the 1980s and 1990s

Considerable media attention had been directed towards the flow of highly talented Canadians to the United States in the 1990s. There are firm theoretical reasons, however, to believe that qualitative differences in migration began as early as the 1980s, owing to the widening distribution of earnings and the related increased returns to education in the United States relative to Canada, both of which could result in qualitative improvements in the migration flow. US immigration policy remained essentially unchanged during the 1980s, but changed markedly in the 1990s owing to the implementation of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUFTA) and its successor, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). We use a flexible empirical approach to document these changes in immigrant quality using 1980, 1990 and 2000 US census data. Our results suggest that improvements in Canadian immigrant quality occurred during the 1990s, but these also happened earlier, casting doubt on the hypothesis of improving Canadian immigrant quality in the 1990s. Quantile regressions also show that improvement in the entry quality of immigrants was not limited to the upper tail of the earnings distribution.     

Unemployment Responses to 'Skill-biased' Technology Shocks: the Role of Labour Market Policy

Do skill-biased shocks that increase the spread of labour productivities, interacting with different policy regimes, explain the rise in unemployment in Europe relative to the United States in the 1980s and 1990s? The hypothesis is an implication of a version of the Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) model of equilibrium unemployment which allows for worker heterogeneity. A calibrated version of the model implies that a similar unemployment increase would have occurred in the United States over this period, given changes in relative productivity by education implied by observed wage changes, had unemployment compensation and employment protection policies been at European levels.     

THE DYNAMICS OF LABOUR'S INCOME SHARES AND THE WAGE CURVE–PHILLIPS CURVE CONTROVERSY

Based on a re-parameterised Blanchflower–Oswald model this paper uses long macro-data from the OECD countries to discriminate between the Philips curve and the wage curve and examines whether there are any differences in wage dynamics between Europe and the United States. The evidence gives support for the Phillips curve and shows that wage dynamics are no different between the United States and Europe.     

Against the Wind: Bargaining Recentralisation and Wage Inequality in Norway 1987–91

In the late 1980s, Norway's labour market experienced similar supply and demand shifts for skills to other countries', but unlike other OECD nations, Norway's wage setting system became more centralised. The pay distribution in Norway became more compressed at the bottom from 1987 to 1991, while low wage workers in other countries lost ground relatively. Using Norwegian microdata for 1987 and 1991, I found that changing labour market prices helped cause this wage compression. Further, the less educated had declining relative overall employment but increasing relative public sector employment, both possible labour market responses to the wage compression     

Shifts and twists in the relative productivity of skilled labor

Skill-biased technical change is usually interpreted in terms of the efficiency parameters of skilled and unskilled labor. This implies that the relative productivity of skilled workers changes proportionally in all tasks. In contrast, we argue that technical changes also affect the curvature of the distribution of relative productivity. Building on Rosen (1978) [Rosen, S., 1978. Substitution and the division of labor. Economica 45, 235–250] tasks assignment model, this implies that not only the efficiency parameters of skilled and unskilled workers change, but also the elasticity of substitution between skill types of labor. Using data for the United States between 1963 and 2002, we find significant empirical support for a decrease in the elasticity of substitution at the end of the 1970s followed by an increase at the beginning of the 1990s. This pattern of the elasticity of substitution has contributed to the labor productivity slowdown in the mid-1970s through the 1980s and to a speedup in the 1990s.     

Returns to skills around the world: Evidence from PIAAC

Existing estimates of the labor-market returns to human capital give a distorted picture of the role of skills across different economies. International comparisons of earnings analyses rely almost exclusively on school attainment measures of human capital, and evidence incorporating direct measures of cognitive skills is mostly restricted to early-career workers in the United States. Analysis of the new PIAAC survey of adult skills over the full lifecycle in 23 countries shows that the focus on early-career earnings leads to underestimating the lifetime returns to skills by about one quarter. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in numeracy skills is associated with an 18 percent wage increase among prime-age workers. But this masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. Eight countries, including all Nordic countries, have returns between 12 and 15 percent, while six are above 21 percent with the largest return being 28 percent in the United States. Estimates are remarkably robust to different earnings and skill measures, additional controls, and various subgroups. Instrumental-variable models that use skill variation stemming from school attainment, parental education, or compulsory-schooling laws provide even higher estimates. Intriguingly, returns to skills are systematically lower in countries with higher union density, stricter employment protection, and larger public-sector shares.     

Can Supply‐Side Policies Reduce Unemployment? Lessons from North America

North America offers lessons about policies that help sustain low unemployment. This article examines the effects of 'supply-side' policies, which boost the skills of the workforce and improve microeconomic incentives facing workers and employers.
Two supply-side policies were expanded after the mid-1980s. First, the United States increased earnings supplements, payable to low-income workers, to encourage adults to find and keep jobs. Second, social assistance programs limited the duration of transfer payments and linked support benefits to workers' participation in job search, occupational training, and community work experience programs. These measures increased job holding among economically disadvantaged adults. In the 1980s and 1990s the United States also maintained strong incentives for employers to create jobs for the hard-to-employ. Payroll tax and regulatory burdens on employers were kept low, and the modest legal minimum wage was allowed to fall in real terms. US experience suggests that selective supply-side policies can boost the employment rates of the hard-to-employ and help maintain a low rate of structural unemployment.     

Survey Evidence on Wage Rigidity and Unemployment: Sweden in the 1990s*

We document the results of a repeat survey, which updates Agell and Lundborg (1995) , on wage rigidity in a sample of 159 Swedish manufacturing firms, conducted during the severe Swedish recession of the 1990s. It is found that not even a prolonged period of very high unemployment and quite low inflation softened workers’ resistance to wage cuts. We discuss possible reasons for this. In addition, we report new evidence on underbidding, efficiency‐wage mechanisms, and unemployment persistence.     

Does the labour supply of wives respond to husbands' wages? Canadian evidence from micro data and grouped data

Abstract. Using micro data and grouped data, we assess the extent to which Canadian wives adjusted their labour supply in response to changes in husbands' wages during the period 1980‐2000. Grouped data parameters based on weighted least squares and the unbiased‐error‐in‐variables estimator developed by Devereux (2004, 2007a,b) yield cross‐wage elasticities that are substantially higher (in absolute value) than those derived from OLS regressions run on micro data. Both grouping estimators indicate that the labour supply of Canadian wives responded strongly to changes in husbands' wages during the 1980s. For the 1990s, our estimates of wives' cross‐wage elasticity display greater dispersion.     

Economic transition and gender differentials in wages and productivity: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing enterprises

We use firm-level data to analyze male–female wage differences in Chinese industry in the late 1990s. Our estimates indicate that employers' discrimination against women was not a significant source of the gender wage gap in Chinese state-owned enterprises. Instead, we find that the relative wage of unskilled female to male workers was higher than their relative productivity. This result indicates that unskilled female workers in the state sector had historically received wage premiums and consequently accounted for a disproportionate share of the sector's labor surplus.     

Job Polarization and Task‐Biased Technological Change: Evidence from Sweden, 1975–2005

In this paper, we show that between 1975 and 2005, Sweden exhibited a pattern of job polarization with expansions of the highest‐ and lowest‐paid jobs compared to middle‐wage jobs. The most popular explanation for such a pattern is the hypothesis of task‐biased technological change, where technological progress reduces the demand for routine middle‐wage jobs but increases the demand for non‐routine jobs located at the tails of the job–wage distribution. However, our estimates do not support this explanation for the 1970s and 1980s. Stronger evidence for task‐biased technological change, albeit not conclusive, is found for the 1990s and 2000s. In particular, there is both a statistically and economically significant growth of non‐routine jobs and a decline of routine jobs. However, results for wages are mixed; while task‐biased technological change cannot explain changes in between‐occupation wage differentials, it does have considerable explanatory power for changes in within‐occupation wage differentials.