Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence

The article analyzes that how much and to what directionthe inherited structure of the Central and East Europeancandidate countries was transformed in recent years, andwhat this shift meant for their real convergence in theenlarged EU. A rearrangement of historical importanceoccurred across the main sectors contributing to GDP, inthe framework of which services have been emancipated.Transition in manufacturing was characterized by a largevariation among countries in terms of speed of restructuring.Good output performance, however, is found not necessarilyassociated with large structural shifts. The dominance oflabor intensive products in manufacturing indicates thatproductivity catching up will necessitate further massiveshifts in this sector in some candidate countries. The moveaway from central planning meant also a drastic fall indomestic savings which, from the point of view catching up,shifted the emphasis to the ability to attract foreign savingsand the efficient use of savings in general.     

Capitalist Convergence? European (dis?)Integration and the Post-crash Restructuring of French and European Capitalisms

ABSTRACT

This article critiques and builds upon first-wave (Höpner and Schäfer 2010. A new phase of European integration: organised capitalisms in post-Ricardian Europe. West European Politics, 33 (2), 344–368) and second-wave (Johnston and Regan 2018. Introduction: is the European Union capable of integrating diverse models of capitalism? New Political Economy, 23 (2), 145–159) European Integration and comparative capitalisms literatures which posit convergence towards a single model of capitalism or growth. It utilises the case study of France to explore the impact of European integration and disintegration on national models of capitalism in the post-crisis era. The article focuses on the impact of integrative and disintegrative dynamics on France’s ‘state-industry-finance nexus’, putting forward three core claims. First, French capitalism is not accurately captured by the above frameworks and remains better characterised by the concept of post-dirigisme. Indeed, comparative capitalisms debates must move beyond a simple bifurcation of capitalist types. Second, European integrative pressures must be viewed as fragmented, differentiating, mediated by domestic state actors and producing capitalist variegation and hybridisation. Countering functionalist tendencies within this literature, it shows how different conceptions of state-market relations crucially mediate the relationship between national capitalisms and European integration. Finally, in the context of Brexit, the dynamics of European disintegration – an issue not discussed so far in these debates – is contributing to a variegated and multi-directional process of capitalist restructuring in post-crisis France.     

The EU attitude to unilateral euroization: Misunderstandings,real concerns and sub‐optimal admission criteria

European Union objections to unilateral euroization by applicant countries are categorized as either a misunderstanding of what euroization entails or as justified concern, which should be alleviated by candidates wishing to euroize. Some ways in which candidates can alleviate concerns are discussed, as well as possible adjustments to the Maastricht criteria which might better protect both sides' interests. The paper concludes that the EU would benefit if it accepted unilateral euroization by applicants. JEL classification: E42, F33, F42, P24.     

简析欧盟推动科技创新及促进地区发展的政策

经过6次扩大,欧盟目前已经拥有27个成员国,其各个成员国的不同的发展状态和经济发展水平,加剧了整个欧盟层面上区域发展的不平衡状况。为了缩小其成员国以及地区间的经济差距、增强其社会凝聚力、进一步推进经济、政治一体化,欧盟制定并推行了一系列的旨在缩小地区差距以确保各成员国经济社会能够相对均衡、协调发展的地区政策。多年的实践使得欧盟在地区发展领域积累了丰富的经验,也在促进其成员国,特别是经济较为落后的成员国经济和社会发展方面取得了相当的成绩。本文试图对欧盟的地区政策,特别是其通过科技创新为地区发展所作的努力作一剖析,希望读者有所收益。     

The impact of the Great Recession on TFP convergence among EU countries

This article provides evidence on the effect of the Great Recession on productivity convergence among European Union (EU) economies. We use firm data, aggregated at the country-year level, to analyse the evolution of beta-convergence on total factor productivity (TFP) for 2003–2014. We obtain a positive impact of the recession on TFP (unconditional and conditional) beta-convergence across EU economies. These results support the existence of a catching-up process within the EU during the recent financial crisis. Other macroeconomic and institutional characteristics are important in fostering TFP growth, namely R&D intensity and quality of governance.     

欧盟建设技术创新联盟的做法和经验

推进产学研相结合,关键是要建立产学研一体化的有效运行机制。欧盟拥有良好的教育和研究体系,是世界研发创新的重要一极。为促进创新,欧盟创立了欧洲创新与技术研究院,旨在以知识创新共同体为核心,有效整合大学、科研机构和企业的研发创新资源。对欧洲创新与技术研究院的组织形式和运作模式进行了研究和分析,该研究院在培育科技创新与创业复合型人才及促进成果转化等方面进行了创新化探索,取得了良好的效果。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU

In this paper we study the relationship of fiscal policy and economicperformance of some core countries in the EU. Our aim is to find outwhether public deficit and public debt have consequences for real variables in the economies we consider. The background of our empirical study is a growth model that provides us with some predictions on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. In a first step we then use Granger causality tests to analyze empirically whether some of the implications of our model arecompatible with the data. In a second step, we investigate whether the fiscalpolicies of the member states have been sustainable. Given this information,we then pursue the question of whether differences in the fiscal positions ofcountries have consequences as concerns the outcome of our empirical testsof step one. Finally, we study whether the impact of the public deficit ratiodepends on the magnitude of the debt ratio.     

How Much Will It Cost to Join the Club? The Extra Costs of Approximating Lithuanian Environmental Laws with Those of the European Union

This paper presents estimates of costsassociated with approximating Lithuanianenvironmental protection legislation with thatof the European Union (EU). Lithuania is oneof twelve EU associate members in Central andEastern Europe that is currently preparing foraccession by approximating their legislationwith that of the EU. The costs of fifteen EUdirectives are considered and details are givenon four directives. Necessary investments maytotal Euro 1500 million by 2015 and the presentvalue of all annualized costs is expected to beabout Euro 2200 million. In 2015, annualized costsare estimated to be approximately Euro 500 million,but these costs are only part of the totalcosts of approximation. Non-environmentalcosts are not considered. Assuming a modestlyambitious average annual growth of GDP of 2.0%per year implies that approximation with thefifteen directives analyzed will cost roughly3.5% of GDP in 2015. This level of additional commitment to environmentalprotection is itself much higher than the 2.0%of GDP being spent on average by OECD countriesand suggests the possibility of a substantialeconomic burden on the Lithuanian economy. Public budgets and households are expected tocarry a substantial portion of this cost,because many directives are the responsibilityof national and local governments. Making theright choices that are expected to be part ofapproximation with the environmental acquis is likely to benefit from carefulcomparisons of costs and willingness to pay forthe environmental benefits of approximation.     

Regional wages and market potential in the enlarged EU: an empirical investigation

This article empirically analyses the link between market potential and regional wages in the enlarged EU. We contribute to the existing literature in several ways: (1) we analyse the link between market potential and wages for the EU27 and (2) deconstruct total market potential into several geographical components and analyse their respective contributions to explaining the geographical wage structure. We correct for existing spatial autocorrelation and endogeneity by using an instrumental variable generalized spatial two-stage least squares (IV GS2SLS).     

生产要素、区域经济增长差异性和收敛性

一个经济体内各地区生产要素投入水平的差异是导致区域经济增长存在差异性的根本原因,也是影响区域经济增长收敛性的关键性因素。据此提出假说:一个经济体内生产要素投入变动的地区差异,将对区域经济增长收敛性产生影响。具体来说,发达地区生产要素投入的增加,将加剧区域经济增长发散;而落后地区生产要素投入的增加,将促进区域经济增长收敛。基于假说,进一步分析生产要素的流动对区域经济增长收敛性的影响,得出两个重要推论。并对改革开放以来福建和全国区域经济增长的收敛性进行实证研究。实证结果证实了两个推论,与研究假说相容。     

我国区域经济增长收敛的短期性和长期性分析

从一个新的视角来解释经济增长收敛,对区域经济增长收敛从短期性和长期性两个方面来进行研究,认为区域经济增长的差异呈先扩大后减小的过程即倒U形。对改革开放以来我国区域经济增长过程进行实证分析,结果表明:在短期内我国区域经济增长趋于发散,但只要采取合适的政策措施,在长期内我国区域经济增长将趋于收敛;并给出了我国区域经济增长收敛曲线的模型形式及预测结果。     

中国省域经济增长模式的空间演化分析

本文采用空间面板计量分析方法,考察中国省域经济发展模式的动态演化特征。研究发现,中国省域经济增长存在显著的空间集聚效应和地区效应。在此基础上,使用空间自相关固定效应模型,对1985～2006年中国省域经济增长的趋同性进行了实证分析。结果表明,从时间演化上看,中国经济增长差异呈现先趋同后趋异再趋同的趋势,并表现出两俱乐部趋同;中国省域经济增长存在条件收敛,且收敛速度先减缓后加速。从空间演化上看,经济集聚和省域差距相伴随出现,增长过程中区域外溢显著存在,促进了经济的趋同演化。     

Autocatalytic Growth and Development and the South-North Convergence

Abstract:

This article engages with the issue of income convergence between North and South by using the autocatalytic hypothesis of growth and development. Two system models describe positive and negative feedback loops which govern economic flows between North and South. The analysis of endogenous and exogenous negative feedbacks points to the process that would slowly push the world economy towards vanishing growth rates and, eventually, halt its material growth. The present work rejects convergence in per capita GDP between North and South from the theoretical perspective. Such an outcome would stand against one of the fundamental properties of autocatalytic dynamics—centripetality— that has its causal roots in the competitive process and capitalist institutions. In that sense, the autocatalytic hypothesis provides a theoretical explanation for those empirical analyses that dismisses convergence.     

Assessing the trade impact of the European Neighbourhood Policy on the EU-MED Free Trade Area

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) set an additional objective for the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs): the prospect of ‘a stake in the internal market’. The launch of this new policy has been the occasion for a revival of empirical studies aimed at assessing the impact of the EU-MED partnership on bilateral trade. The novelty of this work is twofold: (i) to present nonparametric matching estimators besides gravity estimates; (ii) to assume as a counterfactual of the treatment the ex-post long-run average treatment effects of the Europe Agreements. By controlling for likely selection bias and country and time heterogeneity, using both qualitative and quantitative measures of the policy variable, we assess ex-post the trade-enhancing impact of the EU preferential agreements towards SMCs and ex ante the actual efficacy of the ENP.     

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT

Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.     

Managing external macroeconomic imbalances in the EU: the welfare cost of scoreboard-based constraints

This paper investigates the consequences of introducing a new economic governance tool in the European Union - Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. We focus on the external imbalances and especially on the lower limit of −4% imposed on the current account deficit to GDP ratio. Using a 2-region, 2-sector New Keynesian DSGE model and Woodford's technique to operationalise inequality constraints, we demonstrate that it is possible to accordingly adjust monetary and fiscal policy. The utility-based welfare loss remains very limited as compared to optimum unconstrained policy, as measured for Poland on the basis of Bayesian estimation, and this result is robust over a wide range of parameter values. The cost is slightly lower i.a. when (i) the monetary policy is autonomous (outside the euro area), (ii) for non-converging economies, (iii) when the limit is relaxed by incorporating positive capital account to GDP ratio. The procedure also envisages lower limits on REER and ULC dynamics, but the latter can be in conflict with the CA constraint, especially in the monetary union. Therefore, the scoreboard-based evaluation of external imbalances - while not very costly - has definitely some room for fine-tuning in the course of future MIP reforms.