Optimal Hedging Under Forward-Looking Behaviour*

The study focuses on the production and hedging behaviour of forward-looking risk-averse competitive firms. It is shown that there is separation between production and hedging. Optimal productin for a forward-looking firm is identical to that of an otherwise equivalent myopic firm. However, the optimal forward-looking hedge differs from the optimal myopic hedge. If forward prices are unbiased, full hedging is suboptimal when the firm is forward looking and output and material input prices are contemporaneously related. Furthermore, under certain conditions, the optimal forward-looking hedge under unbiased forward prices is strictly smaller than the full hedge.     

Cross-Hedging of Exchange-Rate Risk

For currencies with highly developed forward markets a well-known separation theorem holds which implies that international firms fully hedge the exchange rate risk if the forward markets are unbiased. In this paper we present a model of a risk-averse firm when perfect hedging instruments are not available. Instead the firm can cross-hedge the exchange-rate risk by using the forward markets of a third country's currency. We demonstrate that the unbiasedness of all forward markets does not imply full hedge, although the firm has the option to hedge all the risks.     

Optimal hedging with currency forwards,calls, and calls on forwards for the competitive exporting firm facing exchange rate uncertainty

We extend the well-known full hedge theorems of the hedging literature to random profits that are nonlinear in the random exchange rate. This arises when production flexibility is added to the standard model of the risk-averse exporting firm, where all production decisions have to be made before the exchange rate is known. Hence, hedging with currency derivatives that provide a linear payoff in the exchange rate can no longer provide a perfect hedge. Therefore forward selling is replaced by writing a certain call portfolio. Adding delayed revenue to the model induces the firm to sell calls on forwards. Because our generalized full hedge proposition is proved for random profits that might as well decrease in the exchange rate, the result is applicable to certain types of importing firms, too. — Given the absence of speculative motives on the part of the firm, it turns out that long-term investments in capital goods are chosen in risk-neutral manner.     

Exports and Indirect Hedging of Foreign Currency Risk

We present a model of a risk-averse competitive exporting firm under exchange rate risk. Direct hedging instruments are not available. However, there are domestic assets whose prices are correlated to the foreign currency. We consider a market for futures contracts in these domestic assets and investigate the firm's indirect hedging and export policy. It is shown that the availability of many financial instruments correlated with foreign exchange may, under some circumstances, provide the same results as a perfect hedge.
JEL Classification Numbers: F21, F31.     

Forward Markets and the Behaviour of the Competitive Firm with Production Flexibility

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty when a forward market for its output is available. The firm possesses production flexibility in that it makes its production decision after the resolution of the output price uncertainty, albeit subject to a capacity constraint on production. We show that the firm optimally acquires a higher level of capacity investment than an otherwise identical firm with no production flexibility. We further show that production flexibility allows the firm to implicitly hedge against its output price risk exposure by the ex post production decision. The firm as such under‐hedges its output price risk exposure in the forward market wherein the forward price contains a non‐positive risk premium.     

Currency Options and Export-Flexible Firms

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of a globally competitive firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is risk averse and possesses export flexibility in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the realized spot exchange rate. To hedge against its exchange rate risk exposure, the firm can trade fairly priced currency call options of an arbitrary strike price. We show that both the separation and the full‐hedging results hold if the strike price of the currency call options is set equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices. Otherwise, neither result holds. Specifically, we show that the optimal level of output is always less than that of an otherwise identical firm that is risk neutral. Furthermore, an under‐hedge (over‐hedge) is optimal whenever the strike price of the currency call options is below (above) the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices.     

CROSS‐HEDGING OF EXCHANGE RATE RISKS: A NOTE*

This note studies the optimal production and hedging decisions of a competitive international firm that exports to two foreign countries. The firm faces multiple sources of exchange rate uncertainty. Cross‐hedging is plausible in that one of the two foreign countries has a currency forward market. We show that the firm's optimal forward position is an over‐hedge, a full‐hedge or an under‐hedge, depending on whether the two random exchange rates are strongly positively correlated, uncorrelated or negatively correlated, respectively.     

Hedging exchange rate risk: The multiperiod case

We analyse production and hedging in a multiperiod framework for a risk-averse exporting firm facing a random exchange rate. We extend the separation theorem to this multiperiod model. Our study shows that unbiased currency forward markets in all periods do not imply standard full hedging. Under some conditions, the firm tends to overhedge compared to the one-period hedging models.     

Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?

Belief-elicitation experiments usually reward accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. But this allows risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of the other decisions. So can we trust the existing belief-elicitation results? And can we avoid potential hedging confounds? We propose an experimental design that theoretically eliminates hedging opportunities. Using this design, we test for the empirical relevance of hedging effects in the lab. Our results suggest that hedging confounds are not a major problem unless hedging opportunities are very prominent. If hedging opportunities are transparent, and incentives to hedge are strong, many subjects do spot hedging opportunities and respond to them. The bias can go beyond players actually hedging themselves, because some expect others to hedge and best respond to this.     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

The effect of family ownership on corporate hedging: the case of Thailand

We explore how corporate hedging decisions are affected by family ownership and control in Thailand. One crucial advantage of investigating this issue in Thailand is that hedging instruments became available only recently, long after families established their presence in the firm. Thus, endogeneity is much less likely. The evidence shows that family ownership by itself does not have a significant impact on the firm’s propensity to hedge. However, when family members have a presence on the board of directors, the firm is significantly more likely to engage in hedging activities. Furthermore, we find that the presence of institutional blockholders also increases the likelihood of hedging significantly. Our study is the first to examine the impact of family ownership and control on corporate hedging behaviour in an emerging market.     

The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and forward hedging

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under output price uncertainty when the firm is endowed with an abandonment option and has access to a forward market for its output. When the realized output price is less than its marginal cost, the firm optimally exercises its abandonment option and ceases production. The firm lets its abandonment option extinguish, thereby producing up to its capacity, only when the realized output price exceeds its marginal cost. The ex post exercising of the abandonment option as such convexifies the firm's ex ante profit with respect to the random output price. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full-hedging theorem holds in the presence of the abandonment option. The firm under-hedges its output price risk exposure in the forward market wherein the forward price contains a nonpositive risk premium. When the set of hedging instruments is expanded to include options, we show that both the separation and full-hedging theorems are restored. We further show that the firm prefers options to forwards for hedging purposes when both types of contracts are fairly priced.     

Production decisions in the presence of options: A note

This paper examines the behavior of the competitive firm under uncertainty in the presence of commodity options. We show that the risk-averse firm always uses fairly priced commodity options for hedging purposes. However, unlike the case of forward/futures contracts, the presence of fairly priced commodity options cannot induce the firm to produce up to the certainty equivalent level. We further show that risk aversion alone is not enough to make the firm more eager to produce in the presence of fairly priced commodity options. To establish this intuitively appealing result, the notion of prudence is also called for.     

Exchange rate exposure: Evidence from China

This paper examines exchange rate exposure using a sample of Chinese firms. To measure RMB exchange rate volatility and jump risk, we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to the industry‐specific nominal effective exchange rate (I‐NEER) for 13 Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2001 to 2017, We find that exchange rate risks do affect firm value at the industry level, and the effect is more significant for the jump risks that are more difficult to hedge and in the sample period when hedge activities are less likely to occur. Our results suggest that the exposure puzzle could be a result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging. Firm‐level analysis finds that exchange rate risk affects firm value for more than 20% of Chinese firms, and a firm's exchange rate exposure varies with the firm's characteristics.     

Inflation Risk, Hedging, and Exports

This paper analyzes optimal production and hedging decisions of a risk-averse exporting firm in a developing country. The firm cares about real profits, since the spot exchange rate and the domestic price level are uncertain. It is demonstrated that a separation property holds although there are two sources of risk and only one hedging instrument exists. The authors examine the optimal risk management of the firm. In contrast to most hedging models, the real risk premium is important for the optimal hedging strategy.     

Export,Exchange Rate Risk and Hedging: The Duopoly Case

Abstract. This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade with firms exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market on which one firm can trade the foreign currency. We investigate two settings: First, we assume that hedging and output decisions are taken simultaneously. It is shown that hedging is exclusively done for risk‐managing reasons as it is not possible to use hedging strategically. Second, the hedging decision is made before the output decisions. We show that hedging is not only used to manage the risk exposure but also as a strategic device.     

LIQUIDITY RISK AND CORPORATE HEDGING WITH FUTURES

This paper examines the hedging behaviour of a value‐maximizing firm that exists for two periods. The firm faces uncertain income and is subject to tax asymmetries with no loss‐offset provisions. The firm has access to unbiased futures contracts in each period for hedging purposes. We impose a liquidity constraint on the firm. Specifically, whenever the net interim loss due to its first‐period futures position exceeds a predetermined threshold level, the firm is forced to terminate its risk management program and, therefore, is prohibited from trading the futures contracts in the second period. We show that the liquidity‐constrained firm optimally adopts a full‐hedge via its second‐period futures position to minimize the extent of the income risk and an under‐hedge via its first‐period futures position to limit the degree of the liquidity risk.     

Operational and financial hedging for exporting firms

This paper examines the interaction between operational and financial hedging in the context of an internationally competitive but domestically monopolistic firm under exchange rate uncertainty. Operational hedging is modeled by letting the firm make its export decision after it has observed the true realization of the then prevailing spot exchange rate. Financial hedging, on the other hand, is modeled by allowing the firm to trade fairly priced exotic derivatives that are tailor-made for the firm's hedging need. We show that both operational and financial hedging unambiguously entice the firm into producing more. We further derive sufficient conditions under which operational hedging dominates (is dominated by) financial hedging in terms of promoting the firm's optimal output.     

Market structure and multiperiod hedging

This paper develops a multiperiod hedging model for a competitive risk-averse international firm. We study the optimal sequential hedging strategy and analyze the impact of the structure of available risk sharing markets on the firm's export decision. As a main result, we find that the number of risk sharing markets critically affects the export level while the timing of these markets is inconsequential.     

Liquidity constrained exporters and trade

We present a model of a risk-averse exporting firm subject to liquidity constraints. We show that preferences and expectations become important for optimum export and hedging decisions. Only firms that have sufficient financial resources can fully materialize gains from trade.