The role of human capital and innovation in economic development: evidence from post-Malthusian Prussia

The effect of human capital on growth involves multiple channels. On the one hand, an increase in human capital directly affects economic growth by enhancing labor productivity in production. On the other hand, human capital is an important input into R&D and therefore increases labor productivity indirectly by accelerating technological change. In addition, different types of human capital such as basic and higher education or training-on-the-job might play different roles in both production and innovation activities. We merge individual data on valuable patents granted in Prussia in the late nineteenth-century with county-level data on literacy, craftsmanship, secondary schooling, and income tax revenues to explore the complex relationship between various types of human capital, innovation, and income. We find that the Second Industrial Revolution can be seen as a transition period when it comes to the role of human capital. As in the preceding First Industrial Revolution, “useful knowledge” embodied in master craftsmen was related to innovation, especially of independent inventors. As in the subsequent twentieth century, the quality of basic education was associated with both workers’ productivity and firms’ R&D processes. In a final step, we show that literacy had also a negative effect on fertility which increased with innovation. In general, our findings support the notion that the accumulation of basic human capital was crucial for the transition to modern economic growth.     

新常态下的人力资本与经济增长——综合金融资本和创新创业的理论建模

在国内外形势的双重影响下,中国经济步入了"新常态"的阶段,放缓的经济增长步伐带来新的矛盾和挑战,经济增长模式从以往的粗放型逐渐向集约型转变,但以往的经济理论在经济新阶段都具有一定的局限性.本文使用主流宏观经济学前沿的建模方法将现有的四大经济增长理论囊括在一个综合模型中,把人力资本投资、金融资本投资、实物资本投资、创新创业活动、纳什博弈机制有机地结合在统一的分析框架下,对经济增长理论文献做出重要的概括和拓展.通过校准赋值和数值模拟,得出理论模型的基本结论:人力资本积累虽然可以通过创新和创业促进经济增长,但是其效果仍是递减的,呈现出新古典增长模型的属性.     

人口老龄化、公共人力资本投资与 经济增长*

本文利用内生化老龄化的世代交叠模型,探讨了老龄化社会中为了促进经济增长可选择的公共人力资本投资的最优相对规模和结构。本文研究表明,公共人力资本投资相对规模（即占GDP比例）和公共健康支出占比（即占公共人力资本投资比例）均与经济增长呈倒U型关系,且最优值通过老龄化对经济增长的作用表现出来。即当老龄化对经济增长有促进（抑制）作用时,政府促进经济增长的政策是提高（降低）人力资本投资相对规模和公共健康支出占比。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,老龄化不利于经济增长,公共人力资本投资相对规模及公共健康支出占比偏大,均处在倒U型曲线的下降阶段,分别通过挤出对经济增长更具促进作用的私人投资、公共物质资本投资和公共教育支出而不利于经济增长。本文的政策含义是,政府需提高公共教育支出占比,引导和鼓励更有效率的社会私人资本进行人力资本投资,以逐步降低公共人力资本投资的相对规模。当前公共物质资本投资则需继续加强。     

Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

Financial innovation in the UK

This study employs a national survey of over 1100 British financial firms to ascertain the determinants of financial innovation and their sales success using the logit and the generalized Tobit models. We find that the likelihood of financial innovation rises with the size of financial firms, employee education, greater expenditure on research and development, the availability of finance and the extent to which firms cooperate with each other. Perceptions of economic risk and innovation costs are also influential. R&D, cooperation and human capital are the main variables driving the success of financial innovation, measured by the percentage share of innovations sold. Firms in London/the south have a significantly greater tendency to innovate, though Scotland also does well. Stock broking, fund management and related activities are more innovative than firms in the financial intermediation and pension/insurance sectors.     

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF EDUCATION IN A R&D-BASED GROWTH MODEL

We develop a R&D‐based growth model with endogenous accumulation of human capital. We investigate the idea that education is a good entering in the preferences of individuals. We seek to analyse how the decisions of individuals to invest in human capital can be altered by changes in economic policies and how they can be reflected on the level of growth in the long run. We show that policy changes affect growth through their effect on the decision of individuals to invest in human capital. The effects obtained depend whether individuals enjoy to acquire education or if they consider it as a ‘bad’. In the absence of any policy intervention, the level of growth can be excessive or insufficient compared with the optimum.     

人力资本投资结构与经济增长——基于包含教育资本、健康资本的内生增长模型理论研究

文章针对已有的关于人力资本投资的理论研究往往只关注于人力资本投资数量而忽视人力资本投资结构的现状,把教育和健康看作两种资本,分析了人力资本投资结构的具体构成形式。假设人力资本由教育资本和健康资本按照Cobb-Douglas生产技术形式组合生成,在扩展MRW模型的基础上,文章构建了一个内生经济增长模型。分析结论表明人力资本投资结构制约着经济增长,人力资本投资结构和数量(存量)都对经济产生重要影响。     

中国工业产业结构与企业技术研发行为的实证分析

产业结构升级一直是我国经济学界所关心的一个问题，工业产业的升级更是一个众所关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上，利用中国工业产业数据，采用了经典的SCP范式模型．对熊彼特的两个经典假说进行了验证。发现竞争与企业利润同时对企业研发具有促进作用．熊彼特两个相互矛盾的结论同时得到了支持。通过对应分析，我们对中国工业内产业不同特点和企业不同特点进行了归类，提出国有企业在不同行业的产值比重是导致了这两个看似矛盾的结论同时并存的原因。     

How to Achieve the Take-off into Sustained Growth: A Case Study for Slovenia

In this paper, we show that successful policy aimed at enhancing economic growth in the long run must be based on policies which improve human capital and technological progress. This is applied to Slovenia, a small open economy in the European Union and the Euro Area. In particular, we investigate how fiscal policies should be designed to support economic growth without violating the European Union Stability and Growth Pact. Using the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effects of different fiscal policies in Slovenia over the next few years by means of simulations. The fiscal policy multipliers of the Slovenian economy are small and short-lived, which renders demand-side expansionary fiscal policies inappropriate as a means of achieving higher growth. However, if an increase in government expenditures directly related to technological progress is implemented (such as better funding for tertiary education or subsidies for firms’ investments in research and development), this can trigger a path of output which is permanently higher than that of the baseline simulation. Reducing income taxes and social security contributions has strong positive effects on employment. This result shows that the key to prosperity and sustained growth is investment in human capital and technology, also for a small open economy like Slovenia.     

On the Effectiveness of Growth-Enhancing Policies in a Model of Growth Without Scale Effects

Standard R&D growth models have two disturbing properties: the presence of scale effects (i.e., the prediction that larger economies grow faster) and the implication that there is a multitude of growth-enhancing policies. Recent models of growth without scale effects, such as Segerstrom's (1998), not only remove the counterfactual scale effect, but also imply that the growth rate does not react to any kind of economic policy. They share a different disturbing property, however: economic growth depends positively on population growth, and the economy cannot grow in the absence of population growth. The present paper integrates human capital accumulation into Segerstrom's (1998) model of growth without scale effects. Consistent with many empirical studies, growth is positively related not to population growth, but to investment in human capital. And there is one way to accelerate growth: subsidizing education.     

教育、闲暇与经济增长--理论模型与实证研究

本文通过把消费者时间分为工作时间、教育时间、闲暇时间,重点扩展了闲暇时间对人力资本积累作用和技术进步的外部性,将闲暇时间和教育时间同时引入经济增长模型中分析了两种时间对经济增长的影响和最优平衡增长路径.随后进行了实证研究,结果表明:我国教育时间(即人力资本投资)对中国经济增长有很大的拉动作用,同时,积极健康的闲暇活动能够促进经济增长,但是由于我国处于工业化阶段,对闲暇的偏好还很低,总体上闲暇时间对我国经济增长有微弱的抑制作用.因此,合理安排闲暇活动和正规教育活动对我国经济增长有重要意义.     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

THE IMPACT OF EXPORTING AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON PRODUCT INNOVATION: EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURERS

To understand the drivers of product innovation at the firm level, I compare the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) and exporting on product innovation using a rich firm‐level database of manufacturing and industrial enterprises. The article focuses on product innovation, as it is vital to economic development. Estimates from linear regressions and propensity score matching tests show that learning‐by‐exporting is a stronger predictor of product innovation. Firms that receive foreign investment also tend to engage in more product innovation, but not at the same level as the firms that export. Additional tests confirm that as they start and stop exporting, firms change their patterns of investment in the drivers of product innovation—fixed capital and research. (JEL D22, F14, F23, L25, O31)     

知识外部性、研究开发与经济可持续增长——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证研究

文章在一个具有Marshall-Arrow-Romer知识外部性的四部门经济中,通过研究代表性家庭的动态最优化问题,考察了人力资本投资、研究开发和经济可持续增长之间的内在关系以及相应的政策含义问题,得出的主要结论是:1.人力资本的积累效率和知识外部性的大小会影响经济稳态增长率的高低;2.主观时间偏好率越大、边际效用弹性参数越小的国家稳态增长率越低;经济中技术创新率的提高和教育部门生产效率的改进会提高一国的稳态增长率,反之则反是;3.知识的外部性越大,最终产品部门的产出和研究开发部门的知识增量越高,稳态的经济增长率越高,反之则越低;4.政府应该建立、健全和完善尊重知识产权、激励创新的政策环境,以引导经济达到可持续的稳定增长状态.文章运用1978-2006年的时间序列数据进行实证研究,命题的主要结论得到了经验证据的支撑;同时,也发现了一些不同于已有命题的现象.     

Reexamining the interaction between innovation and capital accumulation

In endogenous growth models with innovation and capital accumulation Arnold [J. Macroeconomics 20 (1998) 189] and Blackburn et al. [J. Macroeconomics 22 (2000) 81] show that long-run growth of per capita income is independent of innovation activities; it is solely determined by preferences and the human capital accumulation technology. As a result, government policies do not affect long-run growth. This paper develops an endogenous growth model with innovation and (physical and human) capital accumulation to show that long-run growth depends on both innovation and capital accumulation technologies as well as on preferences and that government taxes and subsidies can have effects on the long-run growth rate.     

中国财政创新激励政策的增长绩效分析

新一轮积极财政政策已全面启动并付诸实施,财政政策如何影响并激励研发创新成为理论界和实际部门关注的焦点。本文在融合资本积累、研发创新、财政创新激励政策等变量的经济增长理论模型基础上,按中国经济发展的实际情况给模型中的外生变量或参数赋值,做数值模拟试验,研究结果发现:税收优惠和研发资助两种财政创新激励政策都有助于提高研发创新量和经济增长率;税收优惠与市场研发互补,研发资助则具有一定程度的替代性,从而税收优惠政策比研发资助政策对经济增长的冲击力度更大,但研发资助政策的作用时滞更短;为提高增长绩效,应根据两种创新激励政策各自的优缺点审慎选择适用领域。     

Effect of labor market policies on unemployment when firms adapt their recruitment strategy

Firms conduct interviews to select who to hire. Their recruitment strategies affect not only the hiring rate but also job destruction rate as more interviews increase the chances of finding the right worker for the job; a link mostly overlooked in the literature. I model this recruitment behavior and investigate the effects of labor market policies on unemployment. These policies change the value of hiring the right worker, altering firms' incentives to conduct interviews. Policies further affect job creation and destruction when firms adapt their recruitment strategies. Net effect of a policy on unemployment depends on the magnitude of change in job creation versus destruction. Qualitative analysis reveals that the effect of a policy on unemployment is mostly weakened with the introduction of firms' recruitment behavior to the model. Firing taxes still increase unemployment, albeit at a lower rate. The effect of hiring subsidies on unemployment is even reversed: Unemployment increases with hiring subsidies if firms adapt. Minimum wage and unemployment insurance policies are also analyzed.     

Life Insurance,Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth

We compare growth rates in the absence and presence of life insurance using an overlapping generations framework with human capital accumulation to clarify how life insurance contributes to economic growth through the education investment of individuals depending on economic circumstances. Our results show that, as expected, the growth rate is higher when there is life insurance if the rate of time preference or the productivity of human capital accumulation is sufficiently low and if the income loss induced from lifetime uncertainty is moderate. However, if the income loss is sufficiently large, the growth rate is lower when there is life insurance.     

Why can an environmental policy tax promote growth through the channel of education?

This paper examines the implications of an environmental policy for growth performances. We develop a model where growth is driven by human capital accumulation. Firms invest in research to develop new technologies to reduce their pollution emissions and education is treated as product which not only enhances the productivity of individuals but also enters in their preferences. We find that a tighter environmental policy can promote growth. The reason is that a higher tax on pollution drives the prices of goods whose production is polluting up. This, in turn, enhances the willingness of individuals to acquire education.     

短贷长投对企业创新可持续性支持的实证研究

基于我国特殊的制度环境,研究短贷长投对我国企业创新活动的影响。研究表明,短贷长投作为一种替代性融资方式,对企业创新能力产生了显著的抑制效应,并且对不同产权性质和规模的企业而言,这种抑制效应具有差异性。进一步的影响机制研究表明,短贷长投会阻碍人力资本投入和R&D投入,影响企业创新能力积累。另外,就短贷长投对创新与企业成长两者关系影响进行研究,发现短贷长投弱化了创新与企业成长之间的敏感性,进一步证明了短贷长投负面效应的存在。最后,考察了外部金融环境的影响,发现货币政策、地区金融发展水平等因素均能显著影响短贷长投对企业创新能力的抑制效应。