Forward exchange rates in general equilibrium

This paper develops a two-country, overlapping-generations model of an economy with a forward market in foreign exchange. The equilibrium forward rate exhibits the conventional decomposition into the expected future spot rate, a convexity term and a risk premium. Unlike partial equilibrium models, however, the model expresses these terms as functions of the primitive structural parameters of the economy. It thus provides insights into the structure of the premium which may facilitate interpretation of empirical studies of the forward markets. In particular, it suggests that time-varying risk premia may arise from changes in the distribution of wealth between countries over time.     

Structural change in the forward discount: Implications for the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis

It is a well-accepted empirical result that forward exchange rate unbiasedness is rejected in tests using the “differences regression” of the change in the logarithm of the spot exchange rate on the forward discount. We model the forward discount as an AR(1) process and argue that its persistence is exaggerated due to the presence of structural breaks. We show using a stochastic multiple break model that the forward discount persistence is substantially less if one allows for multiple structural breaks in the mean of the process. We argue that these breaks could be identified as monetary shocks to the central bank's reaction function. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that if we do not account for structural breaks that are present in the forward discount process, the forward discount coefficient in the “differences regression” is severely biased downward, away from its true value of 1.     

Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries

This paper examines the ability of the forward premium to provide an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate allowing for potential asymmetries. Extant evidence suggests that forward rates provide a biased predictor of future spot rates. Examining the forward premium for 16 countries, only for 2 countries does the linear expectations hypothesis holds. For the remaining countries, results generally support the view that the larger the forward premium the better a predictor for future spot rates it is, however, this result is not unique across all countries. Furthermore, although the asymmetric model improves data fit over the linear model, only in four cases does the model support an unbiased predictor interpretation. Further research is therefore required to understand the nature of this relationship, not least given the importance of correctly priced forward and long rates in terms of expected returns to future investments and the conduct of monetary policy.     

Diagnosing Asset Pricing Models Using the Distribution of Asset Returns

This paper develops a set of diagnostic tests which can shed light on why a particular model is failing and indicate what steps might be taken to make the model consistent with asset returns. Theoretical bounds on the moments of a stochastic discount factor are derived as a function of the moments of observed asset returns. Particular attention is paid to restrictions on moments other than the variance. These bounds can also be used to measure the information about the distribution of the discount factor contained in the moments of various asset returns. As an application of this methodology, bounds on the discount factor are estimated using size-based portfolios, and the results are used to analyze the small firm effect. Empirical results indicate, for the period 1926–1975, that moments of the returns of small firms contain information about the discount factor that is not contained in the moments of the returns of large firms and/or a proxy of the aggregate wealth portfolio. However, this difference disappears when more recent data is included.     

The predictive performance of the currency futures basis for spot returns

This paper investigates the predictive performance of the futures basis in directly forecasting currency spot returns and compares it with that of the one-month forward basis. We consider the settle prices of both front-month and nearby-month continuous futures contracts and find that the futures basis exhibits statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting power, which clearly exceeds that of the well-known forward basis. The empirical results show that spot returns correspond negatively to both the front-month futures basis and nearby-month futures basis. Furthermore, the futures basis reveals substantial economic value for investors in terms of sizable and tangible portfolio gains, which are consistent with statistical measures. The difference in the forecasting ability of the futures basis and forward basis can be explained by the level of exposure to the time-varying risk premium. Finally, we find that impacts of the futures basis on spot returns vary with time and experienced substantial structural changes during the Global Financial Crisis.     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.     

Speculative capital and currency carry trades

In this paper, we study a two-country general equilibrium model with partially segmented financial markets, where hedge funds emerge endogenously. Empirically, we show that the hedge fund investment strategy predicted by our model, which we call the “risk-adjusted carry trade” strategy, explains more than 16% of the overall hedge fund index returns and more than 33% of the fixed income arbitrage sub-index returns. The flow of new money to hedge funds affects market interest rates, exchange rates, and both the hedge funds’ contemporaneous and expected future returns as predicted by the model.     

Countercyclical currency risk premia

We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the ‘dollar carry trade,’ which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking on aggregate risk by shorting the dollar in bad times, when the U.S. price of risk is high. The countercyclical variation in risk premia leads to strong return predictability: the average forward discount and U.S. industrial production growth rates forecast up to 25% of the dollar return variation at the one-year horizon. The estimated model implies that the variation in the exposure of U.S. investors to worldwide risk is the key driver of predictability.     

A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership

This paper derives a closed-form valuation model in a two-country world in which the domestic investors are constrained to own at most a fraction, δ, of the number of shares outstanding of the foreign firms. When the “δ constraint” is binding, two different prices rule in the foreign securities market, reflecting the premium offered by the domestic investors over the price under no constraints and the discount demanded by the foreign investors. The premium is shown to be a multiple of the discount, the multiple being the ratio of the aggregate risk aversion of the domestic and foreign investors. Given the aggregate risk-aversion parameters, the equilibrium premium and discount are determined by the severity of the δ constraint and the “pure” foreign market risk.     

A Critique of the Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology

In this paper, we point out that the widely used stochastic discount factor (SDF) methodology ignores a fully specified model for asset returns. As a result, it suffers from two potential problems when asset returns follow a linear factor model. The first problem is that the risk premium estimate from the SDF methodology is unreliable. The second problem is that the specification test under the SDF methodology has very low power in detecting misspecified models. Traditional methodologies typically incorporate a fully specified model for asset returns, and they can perform substantially better than the SDF methodology.     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

Debt, taxes, and international equilibrium

This paper employs an extended Miller model to analyze capital structure decisions of individual firms in a two-country setting. Miller equilibria are generally not consistent with an international equilibrium if the tax subsidy of debt differs across countries. The most obvious reason for differential tax subsidies is differences between national corporate tax rates. We also identify differential tax subsidies of debt if inflation rates differ across countries. For both cases we examine the adjustment process from national equilibria to an international equilibrium without and with barriers to international investment. We derive the relationship between the equilibrium yields on debt and equity in the two countries and discuss the Fisher hypothesis that real returns do not depend upon inflation in a two-country Miller world.     

Future Realized Return,Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return

In this paper, I propose a novel approach to derive a firm‐specific measure of expected return. It builds on recent accounting‐based valuation models developed by Clubb (2013) and Ashton and Wang (2013). The measure is intrinsically linked to commonly used financial ratios, including book‐to‐market, (forward) earnings yield, and dividend‐to‐price, as well as growth and past returns. The empirical evidence shows that it is significantly positively associated with future realized stock returns and also significantly correlated with commonly used risk characteristics in a theoretically predictable manner. The results are likely to be of interest to practitioners and managers in making capital allocation decisions and to academics in need of proxies for firms’ discount rates and expected returns.     

Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds

The term structure of interest rates provides a basis for pricing fixed-income securities and interest rate derivative securities as well as other capital assets. Unfortunately, the term structure is not always directly observable because most of the substitutes for default-free bonds are not pure discount bonds. We use curve fitting techniques with the observed government coupon bond prices to estimate the term structure. In this paper, the B-spline approximation is used to estimate the Taiwanese Government Bond (TGB) term structure. We apply the B-spline functions to approximate the discount function, spot yield curve, and forward yield curve respectively. Among the three approaches, the discount fitting approach and the spot fitting approach are reasonable and reliable, but the spot fitting approach achieves the most suitable fit. Using this methodology, we can investigate term structure fitting problems, identify coupon effects, and analyze factors which drive term structure fluctuations in the TGB market.     

A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy

This paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices. We construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood, identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production. Using this model we find three main results. First, we find formulas for equilibrium forward, futures, discount bond, commodity bond and commodity option prices. Second, we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good; the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract. Third, we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices; these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges.     

人民币即期汇率市场与境外衍生市场之间的信息流动关系研究

本文基于格兰杰因果检验方法和MGARCH-BEKK模型,检验人民币即期外汇市场与境外期货市场、境外NDF市场之间的信息流动关系。结果表明:境外期货市场对即期市场不具有任何溢出效应,期货市场的建立并未对即期市场的稳定性产生影响;境外NDF市场对即期市场存在着显著的报酬溢出效应;即期市场对各境外衍生市场仅具有滞后的报酬溢出效应,在价格变动上被境外NDF市场所引导;但在波动溢出效应方面,市场信息则由即期市场向各境外衍生市场单向传递。在三个市场中,境外NDF市场的价格引导力量强于即期市场和期货市场,处于市场价格信息的中心地位。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Campbell-Cochrane Habit Utility Model

Abstract:  This paper tests whether the Campbell and Cochrane (1999) habit utility model generates a valid stochastic discount factor for the 25 Fama-French size/book-to-market and size/momentum sorted portfolios. Campbell and Cochrane (1999) derive a consumption based habit utility asset pricing model and calibrate it to aggregate US stock market data. However, they do not test whether their model is consistent with a larger cross section of asset returns. We test their model using the methodology of Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) and Burnside (1994) . In contrast to previous studies, we find that for reasonable parameter values, the model's stochastic discount factor is inside the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds and therefore satisfies the necessary conditions for a valid stochastic discount factor. We trace the difference between our results and previous studies to the method used to estimate the model's parameters and the parameter values themselves.     

Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets

How shocks in one market influence the returns and volatility of other markets has been an important question for portfolio managers. In the finance literature, many studies found evidence of volatility spillovers across international markets, as well as between spot and futures markets. Although real estate is often regarded as a good vehicle for diversification, the dynamics of its volatility transmission have been largely ignored. This paper provides the first study to examine volatility spillovers between the spot and forward (pre-sale) index returns of the Hong Kong real estate market through a bivariate GARCH model. Transaction-based indices were used so that our volatility modelling was free from any smoothing problem. Our results showed that real estate returns exhibited volatility clustering, and the volatility of the forward market was more sensitive to shocks than the spot market. Moreover, volatility was mainly transmitted from the forward market to the spot market, but not vice versa.

An analysis of real-estate risk using the present value model

The current study uses a present value model that allows for a time-varying expected discount rate in conjunction with a VAR process to decompose real-estate risk. The study finds that the variance ofunexpected returns accounts for most of the total risk with cash-flow risk accounting for twice as much of the unexplained real-estate risk although discount rate risk is also an important factor. This dominance of cash-flow risk is found to result in a weaker mean reversion process for real estate relative to stocks. Another finding is that real estate investors tend to become apprehensive about the future when news on future cash flow is good, and thus they demand higher expected future returns.     

Time-varying excess returns on UK government bonds: A non-linear approach

This paper provides an empirical examination of the behaviour of excess returns on UK government discount bonds in terms of risk factors such as the forward premium, the slope of the term structure, dividend yields and excess stock returns. We identify the existence of a time-varying term structure of expected excess returns. Further, the dynamics of the expected returns are characterised by regime-switching behaviour where the transition from one regime to the other is controlled by the slope of the term structure of interest rates. The first regime, which is characterised by flat or downward sloping term structures, occurs during periods of economic recession. The second regime, which is characterised by upward sloping term structures, occurs during periods of economic expansion. The main risk factors explaining expected returns are the slope of the term structure in the recessionary regime and the excess stock returns in the expansionary regime.