实现REDD+公平正义的保障机制研究

REDD+是发展中国家处理生态问题、缓解生态危机的政策措施和激励手段。受市场经济的影响,在REDD+运行中必然会产生公平正义的问题,我们无法从根本上解决这个问题,只能探索实现REDD+公平正义的保障机制,最大限度地缓解REDD+的公平正义矛盾,推动REDD+的良性循环与可持续发展。在REDD+的运行中,影响其运行的各因素的结构、功能及其相互关系,以及这些因素产生影响、发挥功能的作用过程、作用原理和运行方式,就是实现REDD+公平正义的保障机制。实现REDD+公平正义的保障机制主要有预警机制、引导与传递机制、风险化解机制和道德仲裁机制。科学高效的保障机制是推动REDD+协调、灵活、高效运行的有力保障。     

REDD+公平正义问题的成因分析

REDD+是国际社会达成共识的重要固碳减排机制。世界人民期盼REDD+机制能够科学、公平、正义地运行,人类的未来更加美好。但事实上REDD+在运行过程中存在很多有违反公平正义的问题,深入分析其成因是解决这些问题的基础。从经济发展不均衡、价值判断差异大、REDD+制度建设不完善及其程序执行效率低等因素探讨了REDD+公平正义问题产生的主要原因。     

国际生态系统服务付费的生态政治经济学批判研究——智力重商主义与特许权公平

文章旨在探讨国际生态系统服务付费(IPES)的生态政治经济学问题。以"减少发展中国家砍伐森林和森林退化导致的温室气体排放联合国合作方案(REDD)"为例,文章提出以下问题:IPES机制对热带国家原住民造成影响的方式可能是什么?有观点认为,对REED一类的生态系统服务付费(PES)机制进行评价时,不应只关注分配权公平问题(各方是否分得足够的蛋糕?),还应关注特许权公平问题(是否所有人都想参与分蛋糕?),并指出IPES机制没有考虑特许权公平问题,反映出了某种形式的智力重商主义——将现有地方可得资源重新定义为"可在国际上进行交易的投机性商品",实现财富从新经济体向旧经济体的转移。文章运用德勒泽克和斯蒂文森讨论协商制度时所提出的规范政治理论,对两个实证案例——REDD+社会与环境标准(即REDD+SES)和YASUNI-ITT环保项目进行了讨论。     

基于实施清洁发展机制的演化博弈分析——地方政府与企业

清洁发展机制,简称CDM(Clean Development Mechanism),是根据《京都议定书》第十二条建立的发达国家与发展中国家合作减排温室气体的灵活机制。它允许发达国家的投资者在发展中国家实施有利于发展中国家可持续发展的减排项目,从而减少温室气体排放量,以履行发达国家在《京都议定书》中所承诺的限排或减排义务。本文运用演化博弈模型对清洁发展机制的主要利益主体地方政府和企业进行了分析。     

国际海运温室气体减排的效率机制与清洁发展机制的比较

国际海运温室气体减排政策正在谈判过程中,最终确定的减排机制可能对我国海运发展产生一定影响.国际海事组织推广的"技术、运营和市场"减排方式中,效率机制是重点研究的内容之一,在技术和运营方面,旨在提高船只效率的船只设计效率因子和船只能效管理计划是重点研究的内容,提高效率也是市场机制的重要组成部分.面对当前的国际海运减排形势,采取有效的应对措施才能为我国海运发展争取更多的发展空间.清洁发展机制是<京都议定书>中唯一与发展中国家相关的国际温室气体减排机制,通过几年的实施已经积累了较丰富的经验,文章将对清洁发展机制与国际海运温室气体减排的效率机制进行比较分析,研究如何利用清洁发展机制来分析我国海运行业对国际海运温室气体减排效率机制的应对思路.     

相似的经历,相同的结局?——以CDM为基础分析我国温室气体自愿减排机制的发展趋势

清洁发展机制(CDM)及我国温室气体自愿减排机制都是当前应对全球气候变化的灵活机制,在这两个机制下都可以利用非排放控制企业/区域实现的符合要求的减排量抵消控排企业/区域的等量排放量,实现以最高的成本效率降低全球温室气体排放。不管从机制的设计方面,还是从其实施方面来看,二者具有很多相似性。2012年后由于《京都议定书》履约期的持续性问题,CDM的发展几乎停滞,我国温室气体自愿减排机制也已经实施了多年,而且国家碳市场正在建立中,国家碳市场建立后如何实施仍未确定,我国温室气体自愿减排机制是否会与CDM具有一样的命运?文章将对两机制的相似性进行分析,在此基础上探讨我国温室气体自愿减排机制未来的发展。     

我国发展低碳经济的方法与途径研究

自从低碳经济被提出以来,多数发达国家都提出了发展低碳经济中期和远期的减排目标,并根据自身国情提出了相应的减排途径。在阐述我国节能减排的紧迫性和必要性、归纳国内外发展低碳经济方法途径的基础上,结合我国国情,提出了一些适合国情的发展低碳经济的途径与方法。     

构建企业污染物减排内外动力机制研究

我国污染物减排主要依靠政府的强力推动,企业在污染物减排实施中一直处于被动地位,其主体地位角色一直缺失。要建立长效的企业污染物减排实施机制需要实现企业主体"还位"。通过对我国企业污染物减排行为的博弈分析,探讨我国企业减排动力不足的内因和外因;并提出引入污染物排放信息披露制度强化减排监管力度,从外力驱动企业减排;建立排放权交易市场机制,发挥市场倒逼作用从内力驱动企业减排;并基于"双力"驱动对我国企业污染物减排动力机制进行设计,实现激发企业主动减排的目标。     

我国能源需求的驱动因素与节能减排政策效果分析

从目前形势看,我国"十二五"时期节能减排的形势依然严峻。由于我国收入水平依然较低,随着收入水平的提高,我国总能耗、单位GDP能耗和二氧化碳排放量都将继续保持增长态势。因此,节能减排任重道远。目前,服务业竞争力不强、缺乏节能减排的核心技术、节能减排融资渠道有限、节能减排强制性措施过多和激励引导不足等因素制约着我国节能减排工作的深入。节能减排中,必须通过制造业内部的结构调整降低总能耗;通过进一步加强技术创新和推广的力度,提高能源利用效率;通过市场机制扩大节能减排的融资渠道,提高资金使用效果;通过考核机制改革,把目标考核的"刹车机制"转变为能效与减排的提升机制;通过完善税收和补贴制度体系,激励企业和个人主体做出有利于节能减排的选择。     

清洁发展机制（CDM）对中国低碳经济发展的影响——基于CDM效益对等性分析的横向比较

CDM（即清洁发展机制）作为国际间温室气体减排的一种有效市场途径和合作方式,它在实现减排目标的同时为国际合作双方带来的核心效益表现为经济和技术效应两个方面。然而本文通过对国际CDM市场规模变化,投资收益,一级、二级市场价格以及技术引进效果方面的分析,得出CDM机制在发达国家和发展中国家间存在效益的非对等性的结论。在目前中国严峻的减排形势下,CDM的这种成本收益的非对等性不但损害了即期的经济利益,也威胁到了中国未来低碳经济时代的经济主导权。因此,中国要在价格、技术规制、行业引导、市场平台的建立健全以及国际协同合作等多方面实行相应的支持政策,修正CDM的非对等性,保证中国在未来的低碳经济时代占据主动优势。     

REDD+ as Result‐based Aid: General Lessons and Bilateral Agreements of Norway

The initiative known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) officially became part of the international climate agenda in 2007. At that time, REDD+ was an idea regarding payment to countries (and possibly also projects) for reducing emission from forests, with funding primarily from carbon markets. The initiative has since become multi‐objective in nature; the policy focus has changed from a payments for environmental services (PES) approach to broader policies, and international funding primarily originates from development aid budgets. This “aidification” of REDD+ has made the program similar to previous efforts using conditional or results‐based aid (RBA). However, the experience of RBA in other sectors has scarcely been addressed in the REDD+ debate. The alleged advantages of RBA are poorly backed by empirical research. This paper reviews the primary challenges in designing and implementing a system of RBA, namely, donor spending pressure, performance criteria, reference levels, risk sharing, and funding credibility. It then reviews the four partially performance‐based, bilateral REDD+ agreements that Norway has entered with Tanzania, Brazil, Guyana, and Indonesia. These agreements and the aid experience provide valuable lessons for the design and implementation of future REDD+ mechanisms.     

Institutional design for improved forest governance through REDD: Lessons from the global environment facility

This contribution focuses on carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation in the context of the UN initiative for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in Developing countries (REDD). The design of REDD is important as it may channel much of the international funding that will potentially be made available for future environmental problem-solving in developing countries. The most important multilateral environmental funding mechanism is the Global Environment Facility (GEF). With its basic structural similarity to the emerging REDD, it provides a good starting point for drawing lessons relevant to the design of REDD. In explaining GEF priorities and performance we discuss the role of key actors as well as the organizational and institutional structure of GEF. These factors do not encourage coalitions for addressing environmental problems in the poorest countries. The institutional setting of REDD in the Convention on Climate Change may further exacerbate this trend, as neither conservation nor socioeconomic concerns like the rights and well-being of indigenous peoples and local communities are addressed. Factors that favour utilizing a similar organization structure include scope for donor trust, for bringing in established competence and a comprehensive approach. REDD must be wary of catering solely to a Northern environmental agenda.     

我国未来人口发展与碳排放变动的模拟分析

构建人口-消费-碳排放系统动力学模型,对本世纪上半叶我国人口发展、经济增长、居民消费及碳排放进行动态仿真,定量考察未来我国人口发展与居民消费对碳排放的影响。在基准情景下,我国人口总数将于2032年达到峰值14.6亿人;一次能源消费总量将于2044年左右达到峰值63.6亿吨标准煤,碳排放总量将于2038年左右达到峰值约31.3亿吨碳;2050年我国人均碳排放量约为2.2吨碳,低于日本、欧洲1980年代以来的最低水平;居民消费碳排放的人均需求约为1.3吨碳,相当于美国居民1990年代后期排放水平的五分之一。从满足人口发展与居民基本生活需求的角度争取合理的碳排放空间,是我国争取国际气候谈判话语权的有力支撑点。     

碳中和目标下基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型及其模拟研究

系统剖析了欧盟碳排放交易体系,在厘清GA-BP神经网络原理的基础上构建了基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型,用以刻画碳交易价格的影响因素,并结合情景设置、数值模拟不同情景下不同因素对碳交易价格的作用机理。研究结果表明GA-BP神经网络对于碳交易价格模拟具有可靠性,在不同经济发展水平和能源结构情景下碳交易价格变化较大,构建区域碳排放交易体系不仅能促进温室气体减排,还能优化能源结构,其关键在于形成与碳排放交易体系相适应、相配套的体制机制,营造契合碳中和目标的政策环境。论文旨在为我国碳交易市场运行机制优化提供理论参考,为我国碳中和与高质量发展目标的实现提供有益增补。     

生育政策调整是否会影响我国“碳达峰”目标的实现?——基于STIRPAT和Leslie模型的实证研究

以中国人口生育政策调整为研究背景,基于STIRPAT模型和Leslie模型综合考察中国人口生育政策调整可能对实现“我国二氧化碳排放力争2030年前达到峰值”目标所带来的影响。结果表明,除了经济发展水平、能源技术水平、能源消费结构等因素外,人口年龄结构对人均碳排放也具有显著影响。在论文设置的四种生育率情景下,人口总量峰值分别出现在2025年、2027年、2031年和2027年。若生育政策调整能够有效提高社会总和生育率,人口规模和人口年龄结构的变化会使碳排放总量峰值推后出现。因此,中国逐步放宽的人口生育政策可能会给实现碳达峰目标带来一定压力。     

International Experience,China’s Development and Prospect of Carbon Market Construction

Carbon market, which is capable of scientific quantifying and marked-based pricing of carbon emission, is an important way for countries to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction. The global carbon market, after more than ten years of development, has developed a mature mechanism. China started the trial of carbon market in 2011. After ten years of exploration, the national carbon trading market was officially launched in mid-July 2021. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, the national carbon market will shoulder a greater mission of carbon emission reduction and speed up its financialization and internationalization. However, it should take a dialectical attitude toward the opportunities and risks of carbon market financialization. In the future, China can promote the development of carbon market through efforts to develop market participants, clarify the attributes of carbon finance, prevent potential risks of carbon finance, improve the connection mechanism with the international carbon market, and innovate carbon finance services.     

China and the World under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality: Green and Low-Carbon Transition,Green Finance,Carbon Market,and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

China has always tried to maintain multilateralism and advocated working together to deal with global climate change through multilateral mechanisms. Although China’s announcement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 comes as no surprise, its commitment to carbon neutrality does. As the period between its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is far shorter than that in the developed countries, China’s economic and energy structures need to be adjusted toward the low-carbon and carbon-free end with unprecedented efforts. To that end, China should define the responsibilities of local authorities and industrial entities to promote the orderly accomplishment of carbon peaking in all regions and industries. To supply the huge investments needed to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, China has an urgent need to accelerate the development of green finance and a national carbon emissions trading market, guide the rational allocation of resources, and channel resources to eco-friendly projects for green and low-carbon development. At the same time, China and the international community should strengthen dialogue and coordination, promote international cooperation on the way to carbon neutrality, formulate widely acceptable policy guidelines as soon as possible, and avoid unilateral measures that may cause conflicts.     

科技对我国区域碳排放的影响分析

通过测算全国30个省/市2002—2011年的碳排放量,并进行碳排放区域划分,将30个省/市按照碳集中度划分为重度、中度和轻度碳排放区域。利用STIRPAT扩展模型,并采用SPSS岭回归方法对3个碳排放区域的碳排放进行了影响因素分析。分析表明:经济增长仍是影响碳排放的主要因素;我国在低碳技术的投入和发展上还比较落后,使得整体科技进步所带来的碳排放的增加量比利用科技手段减排的CO_2要多。     

Carbon Peaking,Carbon Neutrality and Green and Low-Carbon Development of China’s Economy

The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China’s economy, but also demonstrated China’s further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change. Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal (1949-2049), it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints. More specifically, the optimization and realignment of energy structure, industrial structure, production and consumption structure, the rational planning of afforestation, and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China’s economy.     

Property rights and liability for deforestation under REDD+: Implications for ‘permanence’ in policy design

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) is critical in efforts to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Despite uncertainty about the exact form of a future, international REDD+ system, REDD+ carbon property rights would need to be created and allocated with liability assigned for the potential loss of climate benefits in the event of carbon reversal from deforestation. This commentary explores the links between forest property rights and liability, to different REDD+ policy options and their implications for permanence. Should national governments retain liability for permanence then project-level activities that have individually-assigned REDD+ carbon rights may have a higher risk of carbon reversal than policies where rights are assigned to the state. Knowledge of pre-existing forest rights is necessary for some policies implemented with government-assigned REDD+ rights in order to compensate for potential income losses from policy implementation.