INTERNATIONAL CREDIT CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE

A longstanding macroeconomic issue is how monetary policy affects the real economy. There are economists placing an emphasis on the role of bank lending in monetary transmission. Their view, called the credit view, is that a monetary tightening shifts the supply schedule of bank loans left, thereby forcing bank‐dependent borrowers to cut back on expenditures. In the literature, the credit view is typically studied in a closed‐economy context. In reality, however, banks make international loans through their overseas branches and subsidiaries. This suggests that the credit view should be studied in an open‐economy context. This paper proposes the international credit view: a monetary‐policy shock originated in one country propagates to another through banks’ reallocation of funds between the two countries. For testing the hypothesis, Australia and New Zealand provide an excellent case to study. This is because Australian‐owned banks dominate the banking market in New Zealand. This paper aims to test the international credit view within a framework of vector auto‐regression models. A significant and robust finding is that the supply schedule of loans shifts left in New Zealand after a monetary tightening in Australia.     

BRETTON WOODS II STILL DEFINES THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM

Abstract.  In this paper we argue that net capital inflows to the USA did not cause the financial crisis that now engulfs the world economy. A crisis caused by such flows has been widely predicted but that crisis has not occurred. Indeed, the international monetary system still operates in the way described by the Bretton Woods II framework and is likely to continue to do so. Failure to properly identify the causes of the current crisis risks a rise in protectionism that could intensify and prolong the decline in economic activity around the world.     

AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF EXPERIENCES WITH MONETARY TARGETING: A REACTION FUNCTION APPROACH

Monetary targets have been instituted in major countries for nearly a decade. There has been a rather wide variety of experience with them, both in the control procedures and in the success with which targets have been achieved. This paper presents results of a reaction function investigation into the extent to which elements of discretionary monetary policy remained even under targeting. Generally, targets probably were successful in focusing central bank attention on the long run. But a conclusion here is that distinguishable elements of discretion (as opposed to rule), evidenced by movements in targeted aggregates themselves, were present for several countries, including the United States.     

国际贸易结算币种内生选择机制研究——兼论人民币国际结算前景

本文从出口商期望利润最大化视角出发,梳理出一个国际贸易结算币种选择的微观分析框架。研究结果表明,在满足政治经济稳定性、货币的可兑换性、外汇市场的发达程度等前提条件下,需求价格弹性大小、汇率的波动性是影响结算币种选择的关键因素。     

A K% MONEY GROWTH LEADERSHIP RULE IN AN INTERNATIONAL MONETARY POLICY GAME

This paper examines a version of the Friedman k% money growth rule in an open economy monetary policy game. Using the two-country model proposed by Canzoneri and Henderson (1991), we show that, in response to asymmetric aggregate demand shocks, the Pareto-efficient outcome can be achieved by a policy that we call a k% money growth leadership rule. Following that rule, one country, the leader, sets her money supply growth rate, and the follower sets her money supply growth rate so as to keep the sum of nominal money supply growth at k%. We show that this policy yields the same outcome as does cooperative equilibrium. We also show that alternative policy rules, such as keeping exchange-rate adjusted money supply growth at k%, or forming a currency union, will not lead to the Pareto-efficient outcome in response to these demand shocks. ( JEL E5, F3)     

REFORM OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM BASED ON SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR ASIA

In the midst of the current global economic crisis, China's central bank governor came out with a proposal to reform the international monetary system based on special drawing rights, contrary to the general expectation of the international community. Although many believe the announcement was politically motivated to address the dollar problem, the reform idea may have important bearings upon the future evolution of the economic integration of Asia. This paper reviews the implications of the reform proposal for the Asian region.     

LDC DEBT: THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

For a combination of reasons that differ among countries, many developing countries' foreign debt service obligations have become difficult to meet. The size of the problem in 1982 raised concern over the stability of the banking system. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided the forum through which the international community's strategy for meeting this concern has evolved. The IMF also played, and continues to play, an active role in helping to finance the structural and balance-of-payments adjustments needed in countries with debt service problems. The IMF's involvement is an integral part of the broader strategy, which builds on the cooperation of debtors and creditors, on a case-by-case basis. The objective is to share the burden in a balanced way. Obtaining adequate adjustment in deficit countries is central to the strategy, but the Baker Plan increased the emphasis on restoring longer-term growth through more far-reaching structural adjustments supported by longer-term financing. The IMF has modified and enhanced some of its lending facilities in light of this emphasis. However, though the short-term nature of its lending was critical in averting a possible banking crisis during 1982 and 1983, it diminishes somewhat the IMF's role in financing the more protracted adjustments now required.     

建设长春国际陆港区的探讨

在国务院《东北振兴规划》和国家海关总署新的报关模式背景下,文章提出了建设长春国际陆港区的设想,并进行了必要性和可行性的分析。在对长春国际陆港区的概念设计的基础上,提出了建设长春国际陆港区的基本依据,进而提出了以长春铁路货运口岸的改造升级和龙嘉国际机场完善功能为核心,建设长春内陆港,再构筑内陆港特色经济区的设想。最后对建设长春国际陆港区存在的问题进行了思考。     

国际金融形势分析与展望

2002年全球金融板块呈现调整特征:一是国际股票市场全线大跌,但其他市场却有不同程度的“好”行情;二是股票、风险投资等直接融资受挫,银行信贷等间接融资重拾风光;三是美元强货币走跌,欧元等弱货币走强;四是美国等强势金融体遭困,东南亚等弱势金融体逞强。与此相对应,中国的对外金融呈现一派繁荣景象,以开放促改革的局面初步形成。     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF EUROPEAN MONETARY UNIFICATION: AN ANALYTICAL INTRODUCTION

European monetary unification (EMU) - the creation of a single European currency and a European Central Bank - is both an economic and a political phenomenon. Yet few studies have attempted to address simultaneously the political and economic dimensions of the process. In this introduction, we review and extend the relevant literatures. The evidence leads us to conclude that EMU is driven mainly by political rather than economic factors, although our understanding of even these political forces remains incomplete.     

AN ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS ON EBAY

Online auction sites like eBay provide ways to measure what consumers buy and how much they pay. Does this imply that consumers pay similar prices, irrespective of their location? Comparing prices for homogeneous, tradable goods in the euro area and the United Kingdom, we find that prices differ significantly. The differential is not related to countries' having different currencies. However, price dispersion—the variance of prices—does seem to be smaller if two countries share a common currency. Our results confirm the importance of national borders in explaining price differences and their magnitude is related to (not) sharing a common currency. (JEL E30, E31, E50, F40)     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF USING MONETARY DATA FOR NATIONAL INCOME ESTIMATES

In a number of underdeveloped countries today, adequate statistics for estimating national output by traditional national accounting methods are unavailable or unreliable. However, many of these same countries do publish data on monetary variables at an early stage in their development. These data can now be used to estimate national income.
In this study the money supply was defined to include all currency in circulation, private deposits subject to check at all banks and postal systems, all government deposits, and unused overdrafts less float. The national accounts data were taken from United Nations sources and data supplied by various foreign statistical offices. To make the accounts more comparable in terms of coverage and to limit reported income to the monetized sector of the economy, non-monetary imputations were deleted.
The monetary and national accounts data were combined in a multiple, stepwise regression. National income was used as the dependent variable and money supply and other data were used as the independent variables. The final estimating equations explained about 96 per cent of the variation in income between countries. Other tests were conducted using the currency ratio, transactions velocity, population, and per capita consumption. However, these variables did not augment the explanatory power of the regression equations.
When the equations were used to estimate national income for twenty-two under-developed countries, the derived estimates showed a high degree of concordance with reported income where it existed for comparative purposes. The results indicate that monetary data can be used to estimate national income for underdeveloped countries with a relatively high degree of accuracy, between countries, and from year to year within a country.