THE PERFORMANCE AND LONG-RUN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CHINESE IPO MARKET

Abstract.  We study the short-run and long-run performance of 340 and 409 IPOs, respectively, listed on China's two exchanges from 1996 to 1997. We find that the average underpricing is 127.3%, and that the average market-adjusted cumulative return and buy-and-hold return over the three years after listing are 10.3% and 10.7%, respectively, which are both significantly positive at the 5% level. We then use a cross-sectional analysis to explain the long-run out-performance of Chinese IPOs, and find that firms with lower government ownership, smaller offering sizes, high-tech features and lower initial returns perform better in the long-run.     

Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003*

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.     

Dept and input misallocation of agricultural supply and marketing cooperatives

Kim and Maksimovic provide an empirical model to examine the effect of dept on a firm. Their model is adopted to examine agricultural supply and marketing cooperatives. Using a short-run variable cost function, we find firm efficiency decreases as dept increases. A US$1 increase in indebtedness increases total short-run variable costs by US$0.0167 or roughly 1.67% Dept tends to shift input usage away from labour inputs. A test developed by Conrad and Unger is applied to determine whether the agricultural supply and marketing cooperatives are at a long-run equilibrium capacity. It is found that most of the cooperatives were overinvested in capacity. However,dept does not explain this overinvestment. Finally,the effect of dept on total productivity over the study period is examined. It is found that dept has had a small positive impact on total factor productivity growth. Scale economics and non-optimal capacity had large impacts on total factor productivity. Although dept is associated with short-run misallocation of resources, we find little evidence that dept is associated with long -run suboptimal capacity.     

A Cost Function Analysis of the Australian Transportation Equipment Industry

This article investigates the existence of economies of scale and input cross and direct price elasticities of demand in the Australian motor vehicle industry. Our estimated cost elasticities were less than one (consistent with economies of scale), but not significantly less than one at the 10 per cent level for two versions of the model. However, the estimated cost elasticity was significantly less than one at approximately the 2.5 per cent level for a third. Thus, these results give some credibility to the infant industry argument for continued assistance to the Australian transportation equipment industry. A four-input model separating domestic and foreign intermediate goods inputs suggests that while restrictions on imported components may have given some short-run relief to the domestic components industry and increased the demand for labour domestically, they decreased the demand for domestic capital. Although the infant industry argument could support short-run protectionist policies for the industry, it appears that such policies regarding the Australian motor vehicle industry must be designed carefully with a specified phase-out period if long-term adverse results are to be avoided.     

Poverty and resource dependence in rural India

Previous studies of rural households in developing countries have tended to find that the dependence of these households on common-pool resources declines with income. Our study of households in Jhabua, India, finds a more complex relationship. Using the share of resource income in total long-run or “permanent” income as our dependence measure—which we argue is more appropriate than the short-run income-based measure commonly used in the literature—we find that for households that collect any resources at all, dependence exhibits a U-shaped relationship with income. That is, the poorest and richest households depend more on resources than households with intermediate incomes. The poorest and richest households are also found to be least likely to collect, however, indicating that resource use at the income extremes is bimodal—either zero or above average. Moreover, the observed trends for resources as a whole are not mirrored in those for individual resources. Dependence on fuelwood and dung declines with income, for example, while dependence on fodder and construction wood increases. These findings suggest that common-pool resources are a productive source of income not just for the poor but also for the rich, and that improvements in the stocks of these resources can potentially form the basis of poverty reduction efforts in these economies.     

Welfare-optimal pricing and capacity selection under an ex ante maximum demand charge

This paper deals with the simultaneous determination of welfare-optimal pricing and investment rules under a multi-period ex ante maximum demand charge by allowing the possibility of purchasing electricity from third party generators at some cost when excess demand occurs. I show that at the optimal size of capacity, expected short-run marginal shortage cost and long-run marginal capacity cost should be equal. The optimal maximum demand tariff does not entail marginal cost pricing. In general, it is shown that maximum demand charges are welfare superior to marginal cost pricing when tariffs must be set ex ante, before demand is known.     

Cost Structure and Capacity Utilisation in Multi-product Industries: An Application to the Basque Trawl Industry

To empirically study production structure and the capacity level at which vessels are harvesting, a short-run translog cost function is estimated. From the estimated parameters, two capacity utilisation measures are calculated (ray returns to scale and a dual capacity utilisation measure). Both capacity utilisation measures suggest that there is excess capacity in the Basque trawler fleet. These measures are also estimated annually and they indicate the same conclusion. The Basque trawler fleet can therefore gain from increased production levels.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.     

An international comparison of hospital efficiency: does institutional environment matter?

The consensus among many health economists is that no meaningful performance differences exist among for-profit and non-profit hospitals in the US, but this topic has continued to be a matter of academic, judicial, and public policy interest. A similar debate has ensued internationally, regarding the potential efficiency gains from privatization of public enterprises. In this paper, we examine empirical evidence from the public, highly regulated Norwegian hospital sector and the private, highly competitive and unregulated California hospital sector to ascertain whether institutional environment and level of market competition significantly affect the degree of productive efficiency in hospitals. We compare and discuss the productive efficiency of four similar sets of hospitals operating in different institutional and competitive environments. The four samples are carefully matched in the dimensions of sample size, hospital size, and average lengths of stay. Heterogeneity in output definition is used to control for other dimensions (casemix, age distribution of patients). We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate and compare average long-run as well as short-run efficiency measures across groups. We find that scale and scope regulation of Norwegian hospitals improves long-run efficiency, primarily due to better utilization of capital.     

Testing for fixity of the labour input under non competitive behaviour in Italian and French manufacturing

The flexibility in labour markets and the degree of competition in output markets are investigated in the context of the Italian and French manufacturing sectors. Conventional wisdom seems to point out that in countries with institutional constraints in the labour market it may not be easier to optimize over labour than over capital. We test whether labour is fixed starting with a measure of labour as total hours worked. As the hypothesis cannot be rejected, we do not proceed to test a further hypothesis, based on the measurement of labour as number of workers. We use a variable cost model supplemented with a markup pricing rule to allow for non competitive market structure. From the results it emerges that the output markets are non competitive. We derive analytically and provide a measurement of both short-run and intermediate-run markups. We also derive a measure of the long-run cost-minimizing level of labour: the ratio of optimal to actual level gives the degree of under- or over-utilization of labour.     

The Political Economy of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Empirical Evidence for Developed and Developing Countries, 1960–2010

Empirical results of testing the PPP hypothesis have constantly shown that relative prices do not converge to the same level, either in the short or the long run. Therefore, the PPP explanation of the real exchange rate does not provide a reasonable measure of competitiveness at the international level. This article puts forth a different approach based on the works of Ricardo, Marx, Harrod and Shaikh. It argues that the real relative unit labor cost is the main factor explaining the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate. The second section of the article explains the theoretical underpinnings of our approach. The third section analyzes the role of the real interest rate differential in explaining real exchange rate misalignments. In the fourth section, we present a graphical analysis of the interrelation among the real effective exchange rate, the real unit labor cost ratio, the short-run real interest rate differential and the trade balance for 16 OECD countries, Taiwan and three developing countries for the period 1960–2010. The fifth section investigates the long-run relationship between the latter three indexes through co-integrating and error correction models using the ARDL–ECM framework. The last section provides our conclusions.     

Residential water demand responds asymmetrically to rising and falling prices

This paper econometrically estimates residential water consumption in Germany between 2007 and 2013 based on a panel of almost 3000 supply areas. In particular, the analysis distinguishes periods of rising and falling water and sewage water prices. The short-run (long-run) price elasticity is estimated at around 4.2% (13%), but water demand appears to respond asymmetrically to rising and falling prices. When prices are rising, the short-run (long-run) price elasticity is around 6.5% (17%). When prices are falling, the short-run price elasticity is not statistically different from zero, and the long-run price elasticity is estimated at around 12%. Additional results illustrate that employing average prices instead of marginal prices results in substantially overestimating the price elasticity. These findings are particularly relevant for utilities and regulators planning to alter the tariff structure towards a higher fixed fee and a lower volumetric fee.     

The Impacts of Financial Integration on the Linkages Between Monetary Independence and Foreign Exchange Reserves

This paper investigates the short-run and long-run effects of financial integration on the dynamics between monetary independence and foreign exchange reserves using a GMM system estimation involving two-year non-overlapping average data (2000-2011) from 114 countries. The results indicate that the effect of foreign exchange reserves on the monetary independence is intensified by the level of financial integration. This suggests a positive spill over effect from the financial integration to the monetary policy independence. Besides, a positive implication of financial integration on monetary independence could be established when the foreign exchange reserves is at the maximum level. In addition, the comparisons between the mean of foreign exchange reserves and the threshold levels of foreign exchange reserves that neutralise the impact of financial integration indicate that on average, the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to offset the effect of financial integration. A stable exchange rate will undermine the positive impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary independence. Finally, the long-run and short-run impacts occur in the same direction. This paper ends with some policy implications and suggestions for future research.     

Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model

This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987–2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhlig's (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main macroeconomic variables to identify monetary shock. This study finds that expansionary monetary policy stimulates output through consumption and investment in the short-run. However, expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in the long-run.     

Cointegration,common features,and persistence in U.S. farm output

This paper determines the persistence of shocks to U.S. farm output at the sectoral and sub-sectoral level using a disaggregated vector autoregression framework. The persistence is measured under models that impose short-run common feature and long-run cointegration restrictions. The sub-sectoral outputs are found to have a relatively high degree of comovement in the short-run and a relatively low degree of comovement in the long-run. The common feature and cointegration restrictions are found to improve the precision of persistence and cross-persistence estimates. Subsectoral persistence shows considerable variation; persistence in Poultry & Eggs sub-sector is nearly three times the persistence in the Fruits & Nuts sub-sector. Two sub-sectors that share long-run common trends, Food Grains and Feed, Hay & Forage, also have significant cross-persistence, implying technological spillovers.     

A model of attrition and income for dynamic longitudinal surveys

This paper develops a random effects model of attrition and income applicable to a dynamic longitudinal survey such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Based on the partial dynamic adjustment hypothsis, this study finds that the speed of adjustment of income is not instantaneous as suggeted in many past studies using annual panel data. Also, the short-run coefficients are much smaller than their long-run counterparts, and the coefficient estimates differ substantially among individuals with divergent socioeconomic characteristics. Caution should therefore be exercised when applying dynamic panel data to models with the assumption of an instantaneous speed of adjustment.     

Exchange rate volatility and its impact on domestic investment

The relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and domestic investment has attracted some attention in macro literature. Previous studies that investigated the relation concentrated on firm level data with mixed results. In this paper we argue that the relationship applies equally at the aggregate. We assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate volatility on domestic investment in each of the 36 countries in our sample using time-series data. The application of the bounds testing approach indicates that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects on domestic investment in 27 countries. The short-run effects are translated into the long-run only in 12 countries.     

Monopolistic competition and the cyclicality of pricing and productivity—A typology of industries

We develop a market model which explains how prices and productivity react to short-run demand variations when the number of price-setting firms is held fixed on its long-run level and profits are endogenous. We assume that for each firm the average production cost function is U-shaped, that customers are imperfectly informed about offer prices, and that customers may search for better offers.For low degrees of market transparency the long-run market outcome exhibits price dispersion with an endogenous finite number of firms. In this case, in the short run, prices and price mark-ups respond countercyclically to demand variations (while input prices are exogenously fixed) and productivity is procyclical. In the complementary case of higher degrees of market transparency, in the long run we have a single-price equilibrium. In that case, in the short run, prices are procyclical while mark-ups remain countercyclical and productivity diminishes with any deviation of demand from its long-run level.Thanks for helpful discussions go to the participants of workshops at the Winter Symposium of the Econometric Society at Warsaw 1990, at the 6th World Congress of the Econometric Society at Barcelona 1990, at the Annual Meetings of the Verein für Socialpolitik in Lugano 1991 and of its Ausschuß für Industrieökonomik in Basel 1992, and at several university workshops. Thanks go also to two anonymous referees. Financial support by the Swiss National Science Foundation, grants No 12-26387.89 and 12-28722.90, are gratefully acknowledged.     

Capital utilization and retirement

This empirical analysis assesses the determinants of firms’ capital retirement. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the business cycle and the capital usage intensity. Compared to previous studies, we directly control for the capital utilization and disentangle the short-run mechanisms from the long-run ones. The analysis is carried out with an original and large firm-level dataset. The main results of the analysis may be summarized as follows: (i) the retirement rate increases during slowdowns and decreases during booms. This corresponds to a countercyclical capital retirement; (ii) the capital retirement rate increases with the capital usage intensity in the long run. This corresponds to a wear and tear effect, which is small compared to the countercyclical one; (iii) the capital retirement rate increases with the average age of capital; (iv) the profit rate and the wage cost per capita do not have a significant impact on the retirement rate.