Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization

Open Economies Review - This paper studies the effect of seven types of exchange rate regimes on business cycle synchronization, by using a new dataset on bilateral de-facto exchange rate regimes...     

全球化与经济周期同步性——以中国和OECD国家为例

本文利用新方法测度经济周期同步性,构建1984～2007年面板数据研究中国与OECD国家的经济周期同步性及其传导机制。研究发现,中国同OECD国家的经济周期同步性与传统理论存在一定差异,双边贸易强度、金融与投资开放度、产业结构的相似程度都将显著地增加中国同OECD国家的经济周期同步性。     

Business Cycles,Core, and Periphery in Monetary Unions: Comparing Europe and North America

Using different levels of regional aggregation, we compare Europe with the USA and Canada as regards business cycle synchronization and core-periphery patterns. A long annual sample (1950–2005) makes it possible to study how these aspects have evolved over time. Results support the economic viability of EMU. Average cyclical correlations among European countries have risen significantly, reaching levels close to those of North American regions. Applying fuzzy clustering to the analysis of core-periphery issues, we find European countries to actually outperform USA Census Regions: the core-periphery divide is milder, and peripheral status seems generally less protracted.     

Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel

Open Economies Review - The business cycles of advanced economies are synchronized. Standard macro models fail to explain that fact. This paper presents a simple model of a two-country,...     

对外贸易变动对东亚经济周期同步性影响的计量分析

随着经济全球化和区域经济一体化进程的不断推进，东亚地区经济周期同步性将进一步加强，本文运用理论和计量分析相结合的方法，不仅验证了东亚地区经济周期同步性的存在，还证明了东亚地区对外贸易变动对该地区经济周期同步性有明显的影响。     

“丝绸之路经济带”西北五省区旅游经济周期同步性研究

旅游经济周期具有同步性是区域旅游经济合作非常重要的前提条件,所以对区域旅游经济周期同步性的探讨和研究无论是从理论的角度还是现实的角度都有很重要的意义。本文运用误差修正模型周期理论研究西北五省区旅游经济周期同步性。经研究发现,西北五省区无论是在长期还是短期都存在明显的经济周期同步性。因此,西北五省区基本上满足建立共同旅游经济政策的基础条件,最后文章根据分析结果提出西北五省区旅游发展的对策建议。     

东亚经济周期同步性研究

本文首先通过B-B算法,考察东亚各国(地区)的经济周期。然后运用动态因子模型,提取东亚共同经济周期,并通过比较东亚各国(地区)和共同经济周期的关系,直观地判断同步性问题。最后通过B-B算法计算出来各国(地区)经济周期的数据,使用一致指数方法定量地衡量东亚各国(地区)经济周期间的同步性问题。     

我国发展循环经济存在的问题分析

我国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但其是基于高能源消耗和支付巨额生态环境成本而获得的,经济发展的同时给资源和环境带来极大的压力。当前我国亟需采取循环经济这种新的发展模式来取代传统的经济增长模式。循环经济发展模式是一种追求“低投入、高利用、低排放”,实现经济、社会和环境三维协调发展的新经济发展模式。     

中国在东亚经济一体化中的角色演化与策略选择:基于经济周期同步性的实证研究

本文利用经济周期同步性对于区域经济一体化的理论涵义,选取5种代表性度量方法,分析了1990Q1～2011Q3期间包含中国在内9个东亚经济体和多种经济体组合的经济周期同步性及其阶段性变化,并将实证结果同东亚经济一体化进程的评价与展望、中国在区域经济中的角色演化及未来参与区域合作的策略选择等分析相融合。结果表明,东亚的总体经济周期同步性程度还不高,增长也不明显,但中日韩组合的总体同步性明显强于其它经济体组合,且显著增强;同时,中国与其他东亚经济体的同步性近年来有显著提高,充分体现出自身经济与区域经济的加速融合以及在未来区域一体化进程中赶超日本地位的趋势。尽管美国与其他东亚经济体的同步性情况与中国相似,却存在本质上的差别。     

Food Stamp Caseloads over the Business Cycle

We use a dynamic model of food stamp caseloads with state-level panel data to estimate the impact of the business cycle on food stamp caseloads in the era of welfare reform. The macroeconomy has a substantial impact on food stamp caseloads: A one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 2.3% increase after one year. In terms of welfare policy, a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of a state's population waived from rules limiting food stamp receipt among able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) results in a 0.5% increase in contemporaneous caseloads. States with waivers from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program in the mid-1990s had caseloads about 1.9% higher than nonwaiver states. While changes in AFDC caseloads have historically resulted in coincident changes in food stamp caseloads, our results suggest that the link between AFDC caseload and food stamp caseload changes has dissipated substantially after welfare reform. The cyclical sensitivity of food stamp caseloads indicates the importance of food stamps in smoothing consumption during economic recessions.     

Specialization and Business Cycle Co-Movement in the Euro Area

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper explores whether similarities in production structures have been an important determinant of business cycle co-movement in the Euro Area. We constructed an...     

Markups and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Branches

This paper investigates the markup of price over marginal cost in Italian manufacturing branches. The approach used is an extension of Hall's model that addresses some measurement shortcomings and theoretical limitations that may affect this class of model. The hypothesis of perfect competition is rejected in the majority of sectors over the period 1977–1995. The cyclical behavior of markups is found to vary significantly across branches, thereby helping to explain the contradictory evidence regarding the whole manufacturing sector reported in the literature. At branch level, industry concentration is found to be associated with countercyclical markups, providing scope for real effects of aggregate demand shocks. Finally, the size of the markup is negatively affected by both domestic and foreign competitive pressure.     

Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages

Drawing on a large cross-section of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Our results confirm that output comovement is higher for country pairs with closer trade linkages and similar patterns of sectoral specialisation. By contrast, it remains difficult to find a direct relationship between bilateral financial linkages and output correlation. However, our results suggest that financial integration spurs business cycle synchronisation indirectly by raising the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Notably, the main findings hold regardless of whether financial linkages are captured in terms of FDI or portfolio holdings.