Synchronization of regional growth dynamics in China

In this paper, we document significant evidence of time-varying synchronization of the regional growth dynamics within China. Using a dynamic factor model extended with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility, we observe a substantial amount of time variations in the loading parameters of the common factor– implying that the exposure of regional growth to the common national factor varies substantially. We find that the correlation in cross-region economic growth performance increased during the recent global recession and declined post-recession, albeit still at a higher level than before 2008. While the large degree of synchronization of regional growth dynamics permits the central government or central bank to implement a uniform fiscal or monetary policy, this concurrently reduces China's ability to stymie the propagation of external shocks and instead increases systemic risks across regions.     

外部冲击下的中国与世界经济波动协同性研究

本文通过实证分析表明:在样本期内,中国与各国经济波动的相关系数随时间变动较大。进一步使用面板数据对经济协同性演变背后的动因进行了考察,结果表明:双边贸易程度和金融一体化程度对经济协同性的影响显著为正,而产业内贸易的影响为负;中国与各国之间的货币政策协调程度、财政政策协调程度以及汇率波动程度也对经济波动协同性有一定影响。     

Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis

Using a regime-switching regression model, we find evidence of synchronization between the Swiss-franc exchange rates of floating East Asian currencies and the Swiss-franc–Japanese-yen exchange rate over the period 1999–2006. The volatility of Swiss-franc–East-Asian currencies’ exchange rates is higher during the synchronization period than during the de-synchronization period. Contrary to traditional arguments concerning the yen-bloc, we find that the Export-Similarity Index and Foreign Portfolio Investment between Japan and East Asian countries are the two main determinants of yen-synchronization in the region. Finally, micro-structural analysis shows that the weeks of synchronization is greater when the yen is strong for Korea and Taiwan, but there are no asymmetric responses for Thailand, Indonesia, or the Philippines.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU

This paper analyzes the synchronization of business cycles between new and old EU members using various measures. The main findings are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved high degree of synchronization for GDP, industry and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronization. There has been significant increase in synchronization of GDP and its major components within EMU. This lends support to the argument of OCA endogeneity but there is also evidence of a world cycle. The consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members.     

Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery

This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (Int Econ Econ Policy 10(3):349–363, 2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is countries belonging to the core that are faced with increased synchronization among themselves after 2007Q4, whereas peripheral countries decreased synchronization with regards to the core, non-EMU countries and among themselves. Correlation coefficients and nonparametric local polynomial regressions corroborate these findings. The usual focus on co-movements and correlations might be misleading, however, since we also find large differences in the amplitude of national cycles. A strong common cycle can thus lead to large differences in cyclical positions even if national cycles are strongly correlated.     

Persistence of business cycles in multisector real business cycle models

In this paper we explore whether the changing composition of output in response to technology shocks can play a significant role in the propagation of shocks over time. For this purpose we study two multisector real business cycle models, with two and three sectors. We find that, although the two-sector model requires a high intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption to match the various dynamic properties of US macroeconomic data, the three-sector model has a strong propagation mechanism under conventional parameterizations, as long as the factor intensities in the three sectors are different enough.     

METHOD OF ANALYZING BUSINESS CYCLES IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

In this paper, we studied cyclical patterns in a transition economy. We introduced a dynamic perspective into the analysis by applying multivariate wavelet analysis. The wavelet covariance and wavelet correlation were defined and applied to the analysis of business cycles as an alternative to the traditional cross‐spectrum analysis. The main findings indicated that there is a significant business cycle component in aggregate economic activity and that business cycles are asymmetric and highly synchronized with the EU cycle. Additionally, it was found that three distinctive periods of business cycle synchronization exert an important impact on the properties of a business cycle.     

Is the Middle East an Optimum Currency Area? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits

This paper examines the macroeconomic costs and benefits of adopting a common currency for 13 Middle Eastern countries. Economic theory suggests that the main benefit is enhanced price stability, while the main cost is higher business-cycle volatility if the member country’s output is not sufficiently correlated with the area’s, as a whole. Using data from 1980–2005, the paper finds that the estimated cost and benefit measures exhibit substantial variability across the countries and are sometimes positively correlated. Moreover, focusing on the results for the last decade, it seems that many Middle Eastern countries (such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria and United Arab Emirates) have achieved remarkable convergence both in business-cycle synchronization and inflation outcomes.

中国内地与香港经济周期的区制依赖协同性分析——纳入美国经济影响的实证

本文运用Markov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的区制依赖特征以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行了分析。实证结果不仅证实两地经济周期的协同性存在依赖于经济周期区制状态的门限性质,而且显示:两地经济周期的正向协同性,隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响;当剥离出美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。在此背景下,促进中国内地与香港经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

Reexamination of Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy

Standard dynamic small open economy models have predicted a counterfactual perfectly positive correlation between output and hours worked over the business cycle. In addition, this class of models exhibits a weak internal propagation mechanism. To address these anomalies, this paper incorporates intertemporally non‐separable labor supply and variable capital utilization into the canonical Mendoza (1991) model with adjustment costs of net investment. Our analysis shows that a dynamic, technology shock–driven small open economy model with internal habit formation in labor hours and endogenous capital utilization is able to account for the main real business cycle regularities of Canada after 1981.     

基于复杂网络的国民经济动员链风险传播研究

国民经济动员链的目标是在危态下保证应战应急资源的超常规供给,在其运行过程中的风险传播会降低动员链整体稳定性甚至破坏动员链的连通结构。以国民经济动员链为研究对象,依托复杂网络理论与方法系统地研究动员链风险传播问题。首先,构建国民经济动员链的复杂网络模型作为风险传播研究的载体。其次,改进SIRS疾病传播模型,建立具备动员特征的国民经济动员链风险传播模型。最后,以汶川特大地震医用物资动员任务为实际案例,模拟风险传播演化过程,探索相关变量对于动员链风险传播的影响。结果表明,不同的状态转换概率会对风险传播范围和风险传播时长造成影响。     

Capital utilization in Japan's lost decade: A neoclassical interpretation

This paper attempts to reconcile the controversy regarding Japan's total factor productivity during its slump in the 1990s by clarifying the role of capital utilization. Hayashi and Prescott (2002) emphasized that the decline in the exogenous total factor productivity growth rate was the main cause. However, some empirical studies have also pointed out that the fall in capital utilization rates accounted for a large part of the decline in the total factor productivity growth rate. In this study we incorporate variable capital utilization into a neoclassical growth model, calculate total factor productivity taking into account capital utilization, and simulate the aggregate output and capital-output ratio. We found that although our total factor productivity growth rate in the 1990s is consistent with empirical studies, our simulation can explain the observed data. This result indicates the importance of capital utilization rates as a source of propagation during Japan's depression.     

Sources of persistence in employment adjustment - Denmark 1974-93

This paper aims at identifying and quantifying different sourcesof persistency in employment adjustment. Based on a dynamiclabour market model an explicit distinction is made betweenreal and nominal (prices and wage) propagation mechanisms. Thetheoretical analysis provides the basis for an empirical analysisof nominal wages, nominal prices, and employment for the manufacturingsector in Denmark from 1974.1 to 1993.4. We find that nominalrigidities prevail in the short run and that nominal propagationmechanisms play a larger role than real propagation mechanisms.The persistency mechanism identified here are substantial froma business cycle perspective, but not in relation to the spanof time over which unemployment has persisted at a high level.     

Bureaucratic integration and synchronization of regional economic growth: Evidence from China

We analyze the impact of the central-local bureaucratic relation on the synchronization of regional economic growth in China using pairwise panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative units (465 pairs) from 1993 to 2014. We identify a significant positive impact of bureaucratic integration (top provincial-level government officials who have served in the central government) on regional output synchronization. Results from the estimations of instrumental variable, generalized method of moments, and subsample remain robust. However, bureaucratic rotation (top provincial-level government officials with prior working experience in other province) has no effects on regional output synchronization.     

The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia

This paper analyzes factors contributing to the observed increase in international business cycle synchronization between eight East Asian developing countries and the major developed economies of Japan and the United States. To this end, a two-country dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model is proposed which focuses on the role of production fragmentation among these countries. A key feature of the model is that it includes the trade in differentiated capital goods, which are added to the capital stock for production, and the technology embodied in these capital goods. The parameters of the model are calibrated using actual data of the countries included. Model simulations are conducted for two periods (1993–1997 and 1999–2005), before and after the Asian financial crisis, showing that the increase in business cycle synchronization can be attributed mainly to the growing fragmentation of production activities.     

一种无人机铁路巡线视频定位方法

为解决无人机铁路巡线视频空间绝对定位和铁路里程定位应用问题,利用无人机飞行过程中空间位置、姿态信息等数据以共线方程为理论基础构建巡线视频空间定位模型,以巡线视频空间定位模型为算法基础进行拓展,完成了视频铁路里程定位、三维场景与视频同步、两期视频同步算法。利用实际工程项目进行精度验证,其里程定位中误差为3.586 m,场景-视频同步中误差为4.23 m,两期视频同步中误差为3.67 m。该方法实现了巡线视频的地理信息编码,为铁路行业无人机视频精准化应用和多源数据融合应用提供了基础条件。     

Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?

We analyse regional business cycle synchronization in the Euro Area, using gross value added in 53 NUTS 1 regions for a period of 30 years (1975–2005), detrended by Hodrick–Prescott and the Christiano–Fitzgerald filters. We conclude that, on average, synchronization has increased for the period considered with exceptions during the eighties and the beginning of the nineties. Still, the correlation of the business cycle in some regions with the benchmark remained low or even decreased. Our findings also support the hypothesis of the existence of a ‘national border’ effect.     

企业社会责任能降低股价同步性吗？——基于强制披露企业社会责任报告的准自然实验

中国2008 年沪深证券交易所强制披露社会责任报告政策为笔者研究其政策效应提供了准 自然实验,文章以2006-2011 年中国A 股上市公司为样本,分别从信息不对称和代理成本两条路 径研究强制披露社会责任报告对股价同步性的影响。运用PSM-DID 双重差分模型研究发现: 强制 披露社会责任报告与股价同步性呈现显著负相关关系,说明强制披露社会责任报告有助于降低股 价同步性,在通过安慰剂实验、变量替换和平行效应检验等稳健性检验后,以上结论仍成立。对 影响路径的分析发现,强制披露社会责任报告通过降低信息不对称和代理成本影响未来股价同步 性。     

Central banks and gold puzzles

We study the curious patterns of gold holding and trading by central banks during 1979–2010. With the exception of several discrete step adjustments, central banks keep maintaining passive stocks of gold, independently of the patterns of the real price of gold. We also observe the synchronization of gold sales by central banks, as most reduced their positions in tandem, and their tendency to report international reserves valuation excluding gold positions. Our analysis suggests that the intensity of holding gold is correlated with ‘global power’ – by the history of being a past empire, or by the sheer size of a country, especially by countries that are or were the suppliers of key currencies. These results are consistent with the view that central bank’s gold position signals economic might, and that gold retains the stature of a ‘safe haven’ asset at times of global turbulence. The under-reporting of gold positions in the international reserve/GDP statistics is consistent with loss aversion, wishing to maintain a sizeable gold position, while minimizing the criticism that may occur at a time when the price of gold declines.