Labour hoarding in Dutch manufacturing industry

Summary Comfronting strong output fluctuations, companies are in no position to adjust their labour volume instantly to the technically efficient level. Because of that, they may find themselves with an internal labour reserve at one moment, and be short of labour at another. This phenomenon is called labour hoarding. In this article we propose a new method for the measurement of labour hoarding and apply it to the Dutch manufacturing industry. The results suggest that in the period 1972 to 1982, labour surpluses in that sector varied between five and fifteen percent of employment. Labour shortages appear to have been minor in the same period. Output uncertainty and real wage costs are supposed to be the main causes of the discrepancy between actual and technically efficient employment. Under this assumption an employment function is derived and fitted. The results are in accordance with the theoretical model on which the employment function was based.The author is attached to the Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam.Based on the author's dissertation,Omvang en oorzaken van labour hoarding, Rotterdam, 1987.     

A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

New Labour and the labour market

The recent run of good macroeconomic news masks mounting evidencethat worklessness is increasingly concentrated on selected individuals,households, and socio-economic groups and in geographical areas.These distributional aspects have been overlooked or ignoredover the last 20 years, but we believe they now form the mostpressing labour-market and social problems facing this administration.We focus on what we view as the government's selected priorities:the concentration of unemployment on certain individuals, groups,and areas; increasing inactivity, especially marked among lesseducated, older men; low pay, persistence of low wages, andits relationship with job loss; and the distribution of workacross households and child poverty. Many of these problemsleave lasting scars on individuals, so that successful interventionmay beneficially change an individual's life-chances. We examinethe evidence on each of these issues and the current state ofpolicy aimed to reduce their scale or intensity.     

Duration of unemployment in the Dutch youth labour market

Summary This paper is concerned with the specification and estimation of a one-state proportional hazard model to explain the duration of unemployment in the Dutch youth labour market. Special attention is given explaining the unequal distribution of unemployment experiences among young labour force participants. The model is estimated using data from a 1984 national random sample of young people unemployed in May and interviewed in October/November. It is found that the replacement ratio has no significant effect. The predicted youth wage on the other hand is significant. The paper also presents and compares different functional forms for modelling duration dependence and heterogeneity.A more extensive version of this paper was published by the Organisation for Strategic Labour Market Research (OSA) in The Hague as working paper nr. 14, 1985. We wish to thank this organisation for its encouragement and for its financial support. We also wish to thank M. Bom, J. Hartog, T. Manders, E. de Regt and G. Ridder for their comments and help.     

A disequilibrium analysis of the labour market: Review and comments

Summary The article has been divided into two main parts. The first consists of a review and an evaluation of Lenderink and Siebrand's analytical and empirical approaches to the short-run phenomena on the Dutch labour market during the period 1952–1970. The main implications are explicitly stated and show how the authors have integrated the relevant results of equilibrium and disequilibrium analysis. It appears that the general analytical approach of Lenderink and Siebrand certainly is very promising. From the comments in the second part it becomes clear that the authors' main empirical results should be rejected. Some new data are produced to be compared with the originally presented data. They provide the basis for emphasizing that the original analysis does not satisfy some theoretical and empirical consistency conditions. Therefore, suggestions for revision of some aspects of Lenderink and Siebrand's study are recommended. This paper consists of a review of and comments uponA Disequilibrium Analysis of the Labour Market (Lenderink and Siebrand, 1976).     

On a two regime model of the Dutch export market

Summary About a decade ago Batchelor presented an interesting model for the export market of UK industry in the period 1948–1975. In this paper a corrected version of Batchelor's model is used to explain Dutch exports from 1962 to 1981. The results are compared with straightforward alternatives to obtain an indication of the relevance of the model in practice. Our conclusion is that the model does not explain exports behaviour better than simple alternatives. For some variables even implausible elasticities are obtained.The authors gratefully acknowledge the computational assistance of Mr. R. van Dal and the valuable comments of Mr. D.A.G. Draper from the CPB, Professor J. Pen and two anonymous referees.     

近代江南地区劳动力市场层次与劳动力循环

中国现代工业发轫后，江南成为国内工业最发达的地区，上海、无锡、常州等地发展成繁荣的工业中心，这些中心提供了大量的就业机会，从而形成多层次的劳动力市场，吸引江南本地农村人口急剧向这些城市移动。江南本地人口离开土地进入城市，很容易寻找到具有一定技术成份的工作、管理工作和其它报酬相对较高的工作。江南地区城市中的体力工作及农村中的许多农业工作，则吸引了大批苏北等地的劳动力。随着苏北及内地其它地区的开发，以上海为中心的智力劳动者和技术工人又大量向外围层层扩散，成为苏北及内地的技术骨干，对内地经济的发展，贡献尤大。     

Reinterpreting the convict labour market

The convicts transported to NSW between 1817 and 1840 were young, fit, highly literate and brought occupational skills which were broadly representative of the British and Irish working classes. In the colonial labour market where convicts were coerced, more labour was forthcoming and at a lower wage than in a free labour market. The assignment of convict labour in the colony was efficient; skilled urban and construction tradesmen were employed in the same jobs in NSW as they had held in Britain. Domestic servants and unskilled urban workers whose skills were not suited to the needs of the colony experienced job restructuring. The organization of convict workers into teams and gangs in Australia was similar to the way work was organized in free labour Britain, and a mbc of incentives and rewards characterized the extraction of work from convicts. The human capital of the transportees and the labour system within which they worked help to explain the rapid growth of the colonial economy before 1840.     

Equilibrium and disequilibrium in the international money market

Zusammenfassung Gleichgewicht und Ungleichgewicht auf dem internationalen Geldmarkt. —In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht, die Ursache des Ungleichgewichts auf dem internationalen Geldmarkt festzustellen. Kurzfristige Kapitalbewegungen erfolgen, weil die Zinsunterschiede auf dem Geldmarkt nicht in vollem Umfang die erwarteten Wechselkurs?nderungen vorwegnehmen. Die Faktoren, die die Unterschiede in den Zinss?tzen bestimmen, sind andere als diejenigen, die den erwarteten Wechselkurs bestimmen. Als Ursachen für ein Ungleichgewicht auf dem internationalen Geldmarkt werden solche struktureller, monet?rer und institutioneller Art ermittelt. Die ersten betreffen Abweichungen von der Kauf-kraft-Parit?t und ?Fisher Open?, die zweiten Abweichungen von ?Fisher Closed? und die dritten beruhen auf der Begrenzung der Schwankungsbreite des Wechselkurses in einem entsprechenden W?hrungssystem. Die Ergebnisse sind, daβ Ungleichgewichte sowohl mit Abweichungen von der Kaufkraftparit?t als auch mit ?Fisher Open? erkl?rt werden konnten. Wechselkurs?nderungen scheinen eher strukturelle als monet?re Faktoren widerzuspiegeln. Die Zinsdifferenz ver?ndert sich nicht in Erwartung von Wechselkurs?nderungen.

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Résumé L’équilibre et le diséquilibre sur le marché international d’argent. —Cet article a essayé d’identifier les sources de diséquilibre sur le marché international d’argent. Les flux de capital à court terme se passent parce que la différence d’intérêt de marché d’argent n’anticipe pas complètement le change attendu dans le taux de change. Les facteurs déterminant la différence de taux d’intérêt se distinguent de ceux qui déterminent le taux de change anticipé. Les sources de diséquilibre sur le marché international d’argent furent identifiées comme structurelles, monétaires et institutionelles. La première comprend des déviations de la Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat et ?Fisher Open?, la deuxième comprend des déviations de ?Fisher Closed?, et la troisième comprend la confiance à un système de taux de change resserré. Les résultats sont que le diséquilibre pourrait être expliqué en manière de déviations de la Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat ou de ?Fisher Open?. Les changes de taux de change semblent refléter plus les facteurs structuraux que les facteurs monétaires. L’agio d’intérêt ne change pas en anticipation des changes de parités.

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Resumen Equilibrio y desequilibrio en el mercado internacional del dinero. —El presente artículo intenta identificar la fuente del desequilibrio en el mercado internacional del dinero. Flujos de capital de corto plazo ocurren debido a que las diferencias en la tasa de interés del mercado del dinero no anticipan completamente el cambio esperado en la tasa de cambio. Los factores que determinan la diferencia en la tasa de interés son distintos de aquéllos que determinan la tasa de interés anticipada. Las fuentes del desequilibrio en el mercado internacional del dinero fueron identificadas como estructurales, monetarias e institucionales. La primera fuente envuelve desviaciones del poder de compra de paridad y del ?Fisher Open?, la segunda envuelve desviaciones del ?Fisher Closed? y la tercera comprende la confiaza en un sistema de cambio estabilizado. Los resultados son que los desequilibrios podrían ser explicados en términos de desviaciones del poder de compra de paridad o del ?Fisher Open?. Cambios en las tasas de cambio resultan reflejar factores estructurales en vez de factores monetarios. La prima de la tasa de interés no cambia en anticipación de cambios en las paridades.

     

Education and the labour market in Botswana

Using primary data from a 1993/4 Household Income and Expenditure Survey in Botswana, this article presents empirical results on occupational attainment, its determinants, and the extent of filtering down in Botswana's labour market, given changes in labour market conditions over time. It was found that the Botswana labour market has been characterised by some ‘filtering down’ of educated workers into less skilled jobs as the supply of skilled manpower exceeded demand. Those who entered the labour market earlier, those with more education, those located in the urban areas and male workers are more likely to occupy jobs that are higher up in the hierarchy than to be in an unskilled blue-collar job. Jobs higher up in the hierarchy are also more rewarding financially. The article shows that there is occupational segregation of workers by gender in Botswana's labour market in that female workers are generally confined to a narrow range of occupations. The policy implications are that employment creation has to be pursued vigorously and the issue of gender discrimination investigated further.     

Union relevance in the Malaysian labour market

The study estimates the effect of union membership on workers' wages using individual‐level data from a survey conducted among employees in various sectors in Malaysia in 2012. Initial results show that union membership has a positive effect on wages. However, after controlling for endogeneity, union membership or the presence of a labour union within a firm is not statistically significant for individual wage levels. Because there is no trade union wage premium, the study suggests that the revival of labour union membership is not going to be an easy task.     

Labour market dimensions of poverty in Indonesia

This paper focuses on labour market issues relevant to poverty alleviation. Patterns of participation, unemployment and employment are examined among the poor compared with the non-poor in general, among urban and rural households, and among various socio-demographic groups. Using data from the 2002 National Socio-Economic Survey, the paper finds that low participation in the workforce and high unemployment, while important, are less closely related to poverty status than expected, especially among spouses of household heads. However, sector of employment and underemployment are closely associated with poverty, especially for those in informal jobs in urban areas; in rural areas, the poor are heavily concentrated in agriculture. Among the poor, young people and females are more likely to be underemployed and to work in agriculture than prime-age workers. The data suggest that labour market policies that tend to protect those in formal sector employment are unlikely to reduce poverty much, if at all.     

A distributed lag analysis of disequilibrium in the International money market

Zusammenfassung Eine Ungleichgewichts-Analyse der internationalen Geld-m?rkte unter Verwendung verteilter Lags. — Die Studie versucht die Ursachen des Ungleichgewichts seit Beginn des kontrollierten Floatings auf dem internationalen Geldmarkt zu untersuchen, und zwar mit Hilfe eines Modells mit verteilten Lags auf Monatsbasis. Dadurch sollen Ergebnisse ermittelt werden, die mit jenen verglichen werden k?nnen, die Aliber für die letzten sieben Jahre des Systems fester Wechselkurse ermittelt (und kürzlich in dieser Zeitschrift ver?ffentlicht) hat. Die Ergebnisse sind insofern entt?uschend, als sie für meine Auswahl von zehn L?ndern kein schlüssiges Muster liefern, das Auskunft darüber geben k?nnte, ob die Ursachen des Ungleichgewichts monet?r (Versagen von ?Fisher Closed? und ?Fisher Open?) oder strukturell waren (Versagen von ?Kaufkraftparit?t? und ?Fisher Open?). Da aber die ?Kaufkraftparit?t? in meinem empirischen Test mehr versagt als ?Fisher Closed?, k?nnen wir unter Verwendung von Alibers Terminologie folgern, daβ das Ungleichgewicht mehr struktureller als monet?rer Art gewesen ist. Wenn wir indessen den Ausdruck ?monet?r? in seinem unmittelbaren und üblichen Sinn (der Wirkung von Geldangebots?nderungen) verwenden, dann k?nnen wir nicht sagen, daβ relative ?nderungen des Geldangebots als Erkl?rung von Wechselkurs?nderungen besser geeignet sind als die ?Kaufkraftparit?t?. Relative ?nderungen des Geldangebots scheinen aber etwas besser als ?Fisher Open? das Zinsagio zu erkl?ren.

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Résumé Une analyse de retardement distribué de diséquilibre sur le marché d’argent international. — L’étude essaye de rechercher les sources du diséquilibre depuis le commencement du flottement managé sur le marché d’argent international par un modèle de retardement distribué estimé avec des données mensuelles pour gagner des résultats contrastants avec ceux obtenus par Aliber (publiés dans ce journal récemment) pour les dernières sept années du système de taux de change fixe. Les résultats sont désappointants de manière qu’ils ne fournissent pas un réseau pour mon sondage de dix pays expliquant si la source du diséquilibre était monétaire (défaut de ?Fisher Fermé? et ?Fisher Ouvert?) ou structurelle (défaut de ?Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat? et ?Fisher Ouvert?). Maintenant, comme la ?Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat? manque dans mes testes empiriques plus complètement que le ?Fisher-Fermé?, nous pouvons conclure que le diséquilibre était de manière plus structurelle que monétaire, en utilisant la terminologie d’Aliber. Mais en appliquant le terme ?monétaire? plus directement et communément pour référer à l’influence des changes en offre d’argent, nousne pouvons dire que les changes relatifs en offres d’argent expliquent les changes de taux des changes avec plus succès que la ?Parité de Pouvoir d’Achat?. Cependant les changes relatifs en offres d’argent semblent expliquer les agios d’intérêt quelque peu avec plus succès que le ?Fisher-Ouvert?.

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Resumen Un análisis de retardos distribuidos del desequilibrio en el mercado internacional del dinero. — El estudio trata de investigar las fuentes del desequilibrio desde el inico de la flotación manejada en el mercado internacional del dinero por medio de un modelo de retardos distribuidos estimados con datos mensuales, de manera de prover un set de resultados que puedan ser contrastados con aquéllos obtenidos por Aliber (publicados recientemente en esta revista) para los últimos siete a?os del sistema de cambioŚ fijos. Los resultados son desilusionantes en el sentido que no permiten distinguir un patrón definitivo para mi muestra de diez países, que indiquen si la fuente del desequilibrio ha sido monetaria (falla de ?Fisher Closed? y ?Fisher Open?) o estructural (falla de ?poder de compra de paridad? y ?Fisher Open?). Ahora, que el ?poder de compra de paridad? presenta mayores fallas que el ?Fisher Closed? en mis tests empíricos, podemos concluir que el desequilibrio ha sido de naturaleza más estructural que monetaria, usando la terminología de Aliber. Pero, utilizando el término ?monetario? en su sentido más directo y común para referirse a la influencia de cambios en la oferta de moneda, no podemos decir que cambios relativos en la oferta monetaria explican variaciones en las tasas de cambio más exitosamente que el ?poder de compra de paridad?. Cambios relativos en la oferta de dinero, sin embargo, resultan explicar en mejor forma los descuentos de interés que el ?Fisher Open?.