对金融危机下农业政策性银行支持涉农企业发展的思考

全球金融危机的扩散和蔓延,正在对中国实体经济带来冲击与影响,而涉及粮棉油生产、收购、加工及其他农产品加工企业也未能独善其身,由于涉农企业受到较大的冲击,进而影响到农业生产的稳定和农民的增收。在这场金融危机面前,农业政策性银行如何充分履行职能,支持涉农企业摆脱困境,促进农业和农村经济的良性循环。本文通过抽象调查与思考,较深刻地分析了金融危机对涉农企业及信贷支农的影响,提示了涉农企业在这场金融危机中应把握的发展机遇,提示了农业政策性银行在这场金融危机中应承担的支农、护农责任及采取的对策建议。     

Changing impact of fiscal policy on selected ASEAN countries

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and largely insignificant impact on output, while taxes are found to have outcomes contrary to conventional theory. Extensions using a time-varying VAR model reveal that the positive impact from higher taxes on output mainly reflects heightened concerns over public finances during the Asian financial crisis and the recent global financial crisis. On the other hand, for Thailand, there is some evidence that government spending can at times be useful as a tool for short-term countercyclical policy.     

集团内部资本市场、银行债务与债权人保护——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文研究了集团内部资本市场对上市公司银行债务融资的影响以及相应的经济后果。研究发现集团内部资本市场一方面可以起到对银行贷款的替代作用,这种替代效应的存在能在一定程度上缓解成员公司的融资约束,但另一方面它也可能成为大股东掠夺上市公司信贷资金的渠道,大股东代理成本越高的公司存在更严重的掠夺问题。掠夺效应的存在是上市公司发生债务危机的重要原因之一。     

Capital requirement and financial crisis: The case of Japan and the 1997 Asian crisis

This study investigates the direct link between the implementation of the 1988 Basel capital requirement in Japan and the shrinkage of banks’ foreign assets, particularly in Thailand in the 1990s. The empirical analysis proceeds in two stages. The first stage investigates the hypothesis that the capital crunch in Japan induced Japanese banks to alter their portfolios and reduce their foreign assets. The second step tests the hypothesis that the change in behaviour of the Japanese banks induced the increase of the probability of financial crisis in Asia. Our results support the responsibility of the Japanese capital requirement, among other factors, in triggering the 1997 Asian financial crisis as an external common shock and give a new angle on the financial crisis literature.     

Competition in Turkish Banking: Impacts of Restructuring and the Global Financial Crisis

This paper investigates the evolution of competition in the Turkish banking industry by taking into account the transformation in the sector in the aftermath of the country's financial crisis of 2000 to 2001 and the global financial crisis. The results demonstrate that the level of competition in the system did not increase despite the restructuring that was undertaken and the increased foreign bank participation. In addition, the level of competition in the sector deteriorated during the global crisis. There is also some evidence that the market power of banks with different ownership characteristics varied and did not converge over time.     

货币与财政政策后续效应评估:40次银行危机样本

以20世纪80年代以来40次重要的系统性银行危机为基础,对金融危机后的货币政策和财政政策选择进行实证评价。实证结果表明,"适度扩张"的货币政策和财政政策能产生相对较优的经济效果,应成为金融危机后的主要政策选择,但由于两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期,为避免持续和大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响,一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升,之前作为"反危机工具"出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐步淡出。     

当前经济环境下中国企业跨国并购的必然性和存在问题分析

跨国并购是中国企业取得海外目标企业品牌、技术、市场的重要方式,是中国企业实现快速发展、开展全球化经营的必然方式。随着中国经济的增长、人民币持续升值,尤其在金融危机及欧债危机的背景下,中国企业普遍认为现阶段为海外收购的绝佳时机,因此跨国并购案例日益增多。本文探讨了中国企业在当前全球环境下跨国并购的优势,同时指出中国企业跨国并购面临的诸多问题和潜在风险,并就该些风险提出建议。     

Urban agriculture in Dar es Salaam: Its contribution to solving the economic crisis and the damage it does to the environment

This article discusses urban agriculture in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and how it helps people to cope with the country's economic crisis. Urban agriculture is also associated with environmental degradation. The article identifies factors that encourage urban agriculture at four different levels and suggests that to check further environmental degradation, concerted efforts should be made at all four levels. Such efforts should be coordinated and integrated into a holistic view of sustainable urban development.     

Competition, Innovation and Financial Crises: A Perspective on the Current Financial Market Turmoil

This paper provides a perspective on the causes of the current financial crisis by comparing it to the international debt crisis of the early 1980s. It argues that competition and innovation can lead to unsustainable debt build-ups as risk is consistently underestimated and underpriced. This has important implications for policies for crisis prevention.     

Sluggish Recovery from the Financial Crisis: Crowding-out Effect and Contagion

Abstract

The stimulus plans by the US Government after the financial crisis in 2008 may decrease private investment by means of a crowding-out effect. The US Federal Reserve utilized quantitative easing policies to maintain the interest rate as low as possible to minimize crowding-out. The 2008 financial crisis also affects other economies through contagion effects. This paper investigates the existence of the crowding-out effect and contagion effect after the crisis using Temin and Voth's models. The empirical results from vector autoregession show that there is a crowding-out effect in the US economy as well as a contagion effect of the crisis on the Korean and Japanese economies.     

取消农业税后的乡镇财政困境及对策

中央取消农业税后,乡镇财政,特别是以农业为主地区的乡镇财政将更加困难,这已严重影响了乡镇的公共服务水平和政府的有效运转,所以乡镇财政困境急需解决。本文从“开源”和“节流”两个方面针对造成现行县乡财政危机的原因进行了分析。并提出了相应的解决对策。     

Volatility of industrial production growth and characteristics of optimal currency areas in EU-12 countries

This paper investigates how the introduction of the euro in the EU-12 countries influenced the short-term volatility of output, measured by the volatility of industrial production growth. It assesses whether more favorable criteria of optimum currency areas keep the volatility of industrial production growth constant. Finally, it investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on the volatility of industrial production growth and on the characteristics of the optimum currency areas of the EU-12 countries. This paper uses the Chow breakpoint test and the Quandt-Andrews test to check for structural breaks in the volatility obtained from ARMA (p,q) and AR(p)-EGARCH(1,1) models. The results suggest that after the introduction of the euro, the volatility of industrial production growth has not significantly changed in Austria, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain. However, the volatility of industrial production growth did increase in Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg and Portugal after the adoption of the common currency. In Germany and Greece the volatility of industrial production increased after 2002 and 1997 respectively. This observation cannot be connected directly to the introduction of the euro. After the beginning of the financial crisis, the volatility of industrial production growth increased in all EU-12 countries except France and Greece. Criteria for optimum currency areas fail to explain why the volatility of some EU-12 countries remained unchanged after the introduction of the euro and after the start of the financial crisis. Those countries, where the volatility of industrial production has not changed significantly after the introduction of the euro, had a long history of fixed or pegged exchange rate regimes. This group of countries recovered faster after the financial crisis.     

新形势下我国农业产业链危机分析

外资在国内的抢购粮食行为再次拉响了粮食安全的警报。文章以农业产业链为对象,分析了在农资供应、粮食生产和购销、粮食加工及制成品销售等方面潜藏的危机。文章从政府扶持、做大做强粮食国企、培植品牌和打击粮食投机等方面探讨了新形势下打造我国安全农业产业链的思路。     

Rural employment and rural-urban differences in employment in Zaire: A comparative perspective

This article provides evidence on the extent of de-agrarianization, the nature of rural employment, and rural-urban differences in employment in Zaire. The composition of employment by industry is examined using data from Zaire’s 1984 Census. Increased schooling was associated with a greater propensity to be involved in nonagricultural employment. Since 1990, Zaire’s chronic economic crisis has become acute and is intertwined with the political crisis resulting from President Mobutu’s resistance to popular calls for democratization. In these circumstances, de-agrarianization is effectively put on hold. Nonagricultural employment opportunities have diminished considerably, and an increasing proportion of the country’s population is being pushed back to subsistence agriculture. An earlier version of this article was presented at the African Studies Centre-International Labour Organization workshop on “De-agrarianization and Rural Employment,” May 10–12, 1994, Leiden, The Netherlands.     

黑龙江省农村劳动力转移的动因、制约因素与发展趋势

采用实证分析方法讨论了黑龙江省农村劳动力转移的动因、制约因素与发展趋势,认为在未来,我国农村劳动力转移的总趋势必然更加顺畅,将实现从农业向非农产业转移,从农村向城市转移,随着现代农业分工水平的进一步提高,还会出现农业和农村内部的劳动力转移,但也面临着农业、农村空壳化现象,威胁粮食安全。受国际金融危机影响,作为劳务输出大省的黑龙江,农民转移就业也受到影响。但挑战与机遇同在。     

The global financial crisis: How similar? How different? How costly?

This paper provides a brief analysis of three major questions raised in the context of the recent global financial crisis. First, how similar is the crisis to previous episodes? We argue that the crisis featured some close similarities to earlier ones, including the presence of credit and asset price booms fueled by rapid debt accumulation. Second, how different is it from earlier episodes? We show that, as much as it displayed some similarities with previous cases, it also featured some significant differences, such as the explosion of opaque and complex financial instruments in a context of highly integrated global financial markets. Third, how costly are recessions that followed these types of crises? Although the latest episode took a very heavy toll on the real economy, we argue that this was not a surprising outcome. In particular, historical comparisons indicate that recessions associated with periods of deep financial disruptions result in much larger declines in real economic activity. We discuss the implications of these findings for economic and financial sector policies and future research.     

Occupational Mobility Pattern in Chonju,Korea

This paper investigates the existence of the inter‐dependence between the Indian stock market and Asia's emerging markets since 1990. This study analyzes whether the MSCI Asian Index has significantly influenced the Bombay Stock Exchange Index before, during, and after the Asian financial crisis. To address this issue, the author first uses a rolling correlation, and conduct uni‐directional and bi‐directional causality tests using the Granger causality test. He then examines the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of forecast errors based on a VAR (vector auto‐regression) model. These tests provide evidence that the influence of the Asian market on the Indian market has increased during and after the Asian financial crisis. These results can be interpreted as evidence that the Indian market has been moving toward integration with other Asian markets.     

Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

新时期农业产业化的运行机制与发展路径分析

农业产业化是生产力发展到一定阶段的必然产物,其对提高农产品市场竞争力、增加农民收入水平、解决农村剩余劳动力就业及发展现代农业意义重大。但在农业产业化发展过程中还存在政策支持力度有限、科技创新支持体系欠缺、龙头企业整体实力较弱、外部发展环境较差等制约因素,通过分析农业产业化的组织机制、利益机制、保障机制,提出推动龙头企业的技术创新、完善金融支持体系、加强财政支持力度、降低经营风险、健全利益分享机制等新时期农业产业化的发展路径及对策建议。     

A Descriptive Model of Banking and Aggregate Demand

We integrate a banking sector into an accessible macroeconomic framework, which then provides new insights on developments around the Global Financial Crisis. The analysis shows that growth of banking sector money supply may help explain the secular decline in long-term interest rates before the crisis. A new bank funding channel of monetary transmission clarifies why increases in central bank policy rates could not reverse this trend. Our analysis highlights the distinction between the zero lower bound and the liquidity trap, and shows that bank recapitalizations can be more effective than fiscal expansions in restoring aggregate demand after a banking crisis.