Financial globalization and monetary policy

Recent data show substantial increases in the size of gross external asset and liability positions. The implications of these developments for optimal conduct of monetary policy are analyzed in a standard open economy model which is augmented to allow for endogenous portfolio choice. The model shows that monetary policy takes on new importance due to its impact on nominal asset returns. Nevertheless, the case for price stability as an optimal monetary rule remains. In fact, it is reinforced. Even without nominal price rigidities, price stability is optimal because it enhances the risk sharing properties of nominal bonds.     

State contingent banking and asset price bubbles: The case of Islamic banking industry

This paper examines how state contingent banking can help neutralize challenges like debt overhang and lack of optimal risk takings, problems associated with conventional banking that can eventually manifest in the creation of asset price bubbles and a financial crisis. Our analysis also contributes to the literature on Islamic banking which considers state contingent contracts as ideal from a religious perspective. We develop a model of banking with state contingent contracts on the liability and asset sides. Our model shows that in state contingent banking, the returns for the depositors, bank and the borrowers are more aligned with the real economy, which reduces the incentive for excessive borrowing, lending and investing. Our model also shows that with the state contingent banking on the liability side, during periods of heightened macroeconomic risk, depositors' payoff would be more volatile reducing the liquidity influx from the real economy to the banking sector. This neutralizes the pressure on state contingent banks to excessively lend on the asset side. Our model further demonstrates that state contingent contracts on the asset side can help avoid too much (or too little) lending by reducing the managerial discretion in charging low (or high) interest rates. With returns linked to the prices of the underlying assets, state contingent contracts may prevent lack of optimal risk taking.     

Exploring Portfolio Diversification Opportunities Through Venture Capital Financing: Evidence from MGARCH-DCC,Markov Switching,and Wavelet Approaches

Islamic financial institutions are being pressurized by critics to offer profit and loss sharing (PLS) financing, such as venture capital (VC) financing, for the purpose of entrepreneurial development aligned to the principle of equity risk sharing. Our study aims to link PLS investments with portfolio optimization opportunities for the Islamic asset managers. Using portfolio analysis with dynamic conditional correlation, Markov switching, and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation, our findings tend to indicate that there is indeed a portfolio optimization opportunity in investment universe for the fund managers who invested in PLS investments in the context of VC asset class over the long run.     

Life Insurance Liabilities at Market Value: An Analysis of Insolvency Risk, Bonus Policy, and Regulatory Intervention Rules in a Barrier Option Framework

This article takes a contingent claim approach to the market valuation of equity and liabilities in life insurance companies. A model is presented that explicitly takes into account the following: (i) the holders of life insurance contracts (LICs) have the first claim on the company's assets, whereas equity holders have limited liability; (ii) interest rate guarantees are common elements of LICs; and (iii) LICs according to the so‐called contribution principle are entitled to receive a fair share of any investment surplus. Furthermore, a regulatory mechanism in the form of an intervention rule is built into the model. This mechanism is shown to significantly reduce the insolvency risk of the issued contracts, and it implies that the various claims on the company's assets become more exotic and obtain barrier option properties. Closed valuation formulas are nevertheless derived. Finally, some representative numerical examples illustrate how the model can be used to establish the set of initially fair contracts and to determine the market values of contracts after their inception.     

VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE BY FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES: EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIAN LIFE INSURERS PROMOTING INVESTMENT-RELATED CONTRACTS

Voluntary financial disclosure by Australian life insurers promoting investment-related contracts is predicted to be related to fees, funds under management, investment risk and return, liability risk and marketing costs factors. The decision to voluntarily disclose various forms of financial data in documents promoting investment-related contracts was studied during 1989-90. Life insurance managers providing financial disclosures tend to: (a) charge lower fees, (b) hold larger funds under management, (c) are exposed to higher investment risk, (d) are exposed to lower liability risk and (e) bear lower marketing costs. This evidence supports Mayers and Smiths' [1981] positive theory of insurance-related contracting.     

Banks Increase Welfare

This paper examines the relative degrees of risk sharing provided by demand deposit contracts and equity contracts. It is shown that in a framework in which individuals have smooth preferences and there exists some type of aggregate uncertainty (interest rate risk), the allocations obtained with a financial intermediary allow in general for greater risk sharing than those achieved in an equity economy. However, the interest rate is essential in order to determine the superiority of demand deposit contracts over equity contracts. The results of the paper contradict the ones obtained by Jacklin [1987] and Hellwig [1994], where demand deposit and equity contracts are always equivalent risk sharing instruments.     

Measuring systemic risk: A factor-augmented correlated default approach

In this paper, we extend existing correlated default models for measuring systemic risk by proposing a model that incorporates an observable common factor that features conditional heteroscedasticity. The addition of the common factor helps to effectively capture realistic time-varying characteristics in individual asset return volatility as well as return correlations. We apply the model for large US financial institutions. The common factor proves its importance in explaining asset return dynamics and measuring systemic risk. We also apply the model in the context of systemic risk contribution analysis and show its applicability.     

保险公司负债公允价值的评估

保险公司的资产与负债按照财务报告或风险管理的要求要用公允价值来表示其价值。保险公司负债主要由各种类型的保险合同组成。尽管金融产品的交易非常活跃,市场价格可以相对容易地获得,但像保险合同这样缺乏交易市场,并且风险是非系统化的金融产品的公允价值的计算却十分困难。通过分层次的方法可以有效地评估金融工具的公允价值,其中评估保险公司负债的公允价值最常用的方法是现值法。现值法中包含了直接法与间接法两种本质上等价的方法。本文对这两种方法分别作了分析,并提出了在评估保险公司负债的公允价值时需要考虑的一些现实问题。     

Asset–liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique – robust optimization – that is well suited to solving the asset–liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximize the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components – active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme's projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes–Stein and Black–Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144-month out-of-sample period, robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.     

风险态度、合作行为与联保贷款契约:一个实验研究

本文应用实验室实验方法,研究了在不同贷款契约情况下,借款人风险态度等因素对合作水平(努力程度)的影响。研究发现:(1)联保贷款契约下参与者的努力水平之间存在正相关关系,且其努力水平显著高于个人责任契约下参与者的努力水平。说明联保贷款契约参与者存在较高的有条件合作行为;(2)在联保贷款契约下,风险喜好参与者的努力水平显著高于风险规避参与者。说明联保贷款契约对风险喜好参与者具有显著激励作用;(3)风险规避参与者的努力水平随实验期数增加而下降的速度比风险喜好参与者更快,风险规避参与者对联保贷款契约合作水平有较大危害。我们提出:小额贷款机构应当为风险喜好借款人提供联保贷款契约,并且避免风险规避的借款人与风险喜好的借款人组成联保贷款小组。对风险喜好借款人组成的联保贷款小组,联保贷款契约的期限可以较长。     

Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior

We formulate a generalized price-setting framework that incorporates staggered contracts of multiple durations and that enables us to directly identify the influences of nominal vs. real rigidities. We estimate this framework using macroeconomic data for Germany (1975-1998) and for the U.S. (1983-2003). In each case, we find that the data are well-characterized by nominal contracts with an average duration of about two to three quarters. We also find that new contracts exhibit very low sensitivity to marginal cost, corresponding to a relatively high degree of real rigidity. Finally, our results indicate that backward-looking price-setting behavior (such as indexation to lagged inflation) is not needed in explaining the aggregate data, at least in an environment with a stable monetary policy regime and a transparent and credible inflation objective.     

The Subjective Valuation of Indexed Stock Options and Their Incentive Effects

We analyze the potential role of indexed stock options in future pay‐for‐performance executive compensation contracts. We present a unified framework for index‐linked stock options, discuss their incentive effects, argue that indexation schemes based on the capital‐asset pricing model (CAPM) are the most suitable for executive compensation, and derive a subjective pricing model for the class of CAPM‐based indexed stock options. Contrary to earlier work, executives would not be motivated to take on investment projects with high idiosyncratic risk once their lack of wealth diversification and degree of risk aversion are factored into the analysis.     

The ex ante real rate and inflation premium under a habit consumption model

This paper analyzes and quantifies ex ante components of bond yields – real rate of returns and risk premiums – from observed prices of nominal and indexed bonds in the United Kingdom from 1983 to 2000. The estimation uses an asset pricing framework based on a habit consumption model together with a joint formulation of consumption growth and inflation. Nominal yields carry a time-varying inflation premium that is significant throughout the period, increasing in the bond's maturity and contributing up to 25 basis points to yearly nominal yields. The analysis allows the extraction of the ex ante real rate from indexed bonds by properly taking into account both the incomplete indexation on these instruments and the inflation premium embedded in the nominal bonds.     

Issues in the Drive to Measure Liabilities at Fair Value

This paper compares the discussion on liability measurement in Accounting The0y Monograph 10 with the liability measurement requirements in recent international proposals on accounting for financial instruments. Rather than conducting a detailed review of the Monograph, the paper examines three major issues which wawant amplifjing, extending or criticising: What is “fair value”? Why fair value liabilities? Should fair value include an entity's own credit risk? The focus is on financial liabilities such as “plain vanilla” debt; other financial liabilities, such as insurance obligations, pensions, wawanties and environmental damage restoration involve additional considerations and are therefore not considered.     

EQUITY CAPITAL, PROFIT SHARING CONTRACTS, AND INVESTMENT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

The potential effect of financial variables on the level of investment is among the key issues in contemporary financial economics. Some researchers have claimed that there is an inherent risk in the Islamic profit-and-loss sharing scheme that replaces the western fixed-interest rate system. This paper argues that such concerns are baseless. In an Islamic framework, equity capital (i.e., strong financial position) and the profit-sharing ratio are primary determinants of investment. It is shown that both factors could enhance the firm's business reputation and its investment activities. The paper, in so doing, constructs a two-period equilibrium model of profit-sharing contracts. An optimal solution for the investment function is derived for the banking firm. Besides equity capital and the profit-sharing ratio, other relevant determinants of investment are also considered, including depreciation and expected inflation. Moreover, unlike most previous research in this area, the resultant investment (and profitsharing ratio) functions are subjected to empirical testing using data from a representative Islamic bank.     

Measurement Model or Asset Type: Evidence from an Evaluation of the Relevance of Financial Assets

This study focuses on the operation of the Level 1, 2, and 3 measurement uncertainty hierarchy embedded in the SFAS 157 accounting for financial assets. Prior studies conclude the SFAS 157 fair value measurement model and prevailing financial market conditions are causal factors for the lower value relevance of the Level 3 financial assets. The contribution of our paper is to provide evidence on an additional, hitherto undocumented source of measurement uncertainty impacting the relevance of SFAS 157 financial assets to investors: the type of asset appearing in Level 3 financial assets as a result of asset securitizations and SFAS 140 securitization accounting. The paper also presents evidence that suggests the SFAS 166 amendments were unable to fully address informational transparency for financial assets arising from securitizations. The key contribution is evidentiary insights suggesting the prescribed measurement model has a relatively lower impact on measurement uncertainty and relevance of financial assets compared to the effects of the asset type.     

Capital markets,financial intermediaries,and liquidity supply

We study a dynamic economy endowed with a sequence of overlapping generations of consumers and production processes, and where productive assets are illiquid and consumption preferences are subject to uninsurable demand for liquidity. We characterize the steady states that can be achieved with alternative financial systems. We show that infinitely lived financial intermediaries offering a liability with age-dependent restrictions may implement a social optimum with full insurance. If, instead, they offer anonymous, unrestricted contracts, then only second-best consumption allocations with partial insurance obtain. We also examine the consumption allocations available when agents can trade shares in competitive stock markets. While allowing for trade across generations may or may not improve upon generational autarky, we show that this competitive equilibrium is not a social optimum, and is dominated by a system of infinitely lived, unrestricted intermediaries.     

将对未来的估计包含在今天的财务报表中

本文阐释了将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的方式,而不是为什么应当将对未来的估计包含在今天财务报表中的问题。在今天的财务报表中包含对未来的估计并不是一个新概念,但用处却日益增加。这主要是因为会计准则制定机构认为,反映当前经济状况、并根据对未来的预期更新的对资产和负债的计量方式,将产生有利于做出经济决策的更为有用的信息,这正是财务报告的目标所在。这也是会计准则制定机构关注公允价值会计的原因。如何将对未来的估计包含在财务报表中,取决于资产和负债的计量属性,以及从财务报告角度对资产和负债的定义。现行资产和负债的定义取决于确定产生预期经济利益流入或流出的过去交易或事项,对于预期经济利益流入,还需要关注对预期的控制。因此,并不是所有预期经济利益的流入或流出都予以确认。附注披露能够帮助财务报表使用者理解已经在财务报表中确认的估计,并提供尚未确认估计的相关信息。将对未来的估计更多地包含在今天的财务报表中,将会产生与目前反映的收益有所不同的收益计量方式,但值得讨论的是,这种计量能够对经济决策提供更好的信息。     

Systemic risk in an interconnected banking system with endogenous asset markets

We analyze the emergence of systemic risk in a network model of interconnected bank balance sheets. The model incorporates multiple sources of systemic risk, including size of financial institutions, direct exposure from interbank lendings, and asset fire sales. We suggest a new macroprudential risk management approach building on a system wide value at risk (SVaR). Under the SVaR metric, the contribution of individual banks to systemic risk is well defined and can be approximated by a Shapley value-type measure. We show that, in a SVaR regime, a fair systemic risk charge which is proportional to a bank's individual contribution to systemic risk diverges from the optimal macroprudential capitalization of the banks from a planner's perspective. The results have implications for the design of macroprudential capital surcharges.     

Accounting for Infrastructure Service Delivery by Government: Generational Issues

Infrastructure service provision by government creates huge distributional issues about service availability and performance over time and the relative funding burdens borne by successive generations of consumers across time. But providing financial disclosure on these issues through inter-generational accounting pre-supposes that accounting measurement is both generationally neutral (temporal neutrality) and does not legitimate any particular pattern of distribution. At the very least, accounting measurements of service provision costs should possess the attribute of distributional fairness. They should not bias the inter-generational allocation of cost or funding burdens. We argue that the forced application of inappropriate commercial accounting concepts of asset valuation, depreciation and capital maintenance does produce significant generational bias. More flexibility is required to produce the necessary accounting measurement attributes for financial disclosure on whether government has discharged its continuing accountability for inter-generational equity in burden sharing. We discuss three conceptual issues and illustrate the need for flexibility by proposing an alternative 'flow of obligations' approach which does not require reference to valuations of community service resources or arbitrary cost allocations under depreciation.