城镇化与城镇居民生活能耗的门槛效应分析

"集约、智能、绿色、低碳"的新型城镇化要求我国在城镇化的建设过程中应注重生态文明建设。在以人口城镇化衡量城镇化水平的基础上,提出以城镇人口密度指标同样表征城镇化水平以突显新型城镇化中的"集约"特点。基于2000—2016年29个省级面板数据,使用面板门槛回归模型,从人口城镇化和城镇人口密度两个角度分析城镇化对城镇居民人均生活能耗产生的影响。研究结果显示:人口城镇化、城镇人口密度对城镇居民人均生活能耗均存在显著的双门槛效应。从人口城镇化的角度看,城镇化能够控制城镇居民人均生活能耗增长并且两者之间的弹性系数因所处门槛区间不同而存在差异。从城镇人口密度的角度来看,其对城镇居民人均生活能耗会产生抑制作用,并且这种抑制作用会因其跨越门槛值而减弱。     

2012全国“GDP含金量”出炉

什么是“GDP含金量”？就是先用某地GDP总量除以常住人口数繁，得出人均GDP，然后用人均收入除以人均GDP，得出的“单位GDP人均可支配收入”即为“GDP含金量”。换句话讲，居民可支配的收入越多，生活水平也相应越高，GDP的成色越足，     

中国跨越中等收入陷阱的“流动性”优势

如果不久的将来,中国能够跨入高收入国家行业,这将改变全球格局,因为目前高收入国家的人口加起来大约占全球人口20％,而中国有近14亿人口,也占全球20％,这将意味着占全球40％人口的经济体步入了高收入行列. 如世界银行把人均GNI(国民收入)不低于12616美元作为步入高收入经济体的参考值,也就是说,如果一个经济体长期超越不了这个数值,则可能陷入中等收入陷阱.2012年,中国人均GNI为5740美元,已经属于中上等收入国家,若按PPP(购买力平价,根据各国不同的价格水平计算出来的货币之间的等值系数,以对各国的国内生产总值进行合理比较)计算,则为9210美元.     

提高农民现金收入的主要途径和对策思考

一、农副产品商品化进程对农民现金收入增长的贡献（－）农副产品商品率与农民现金收入的增长农副产品物品率越高,农民人均现金收入和出售农副产品现金收入水平越高。198o年全国农副产品商品率为50．27％,农民人均现金收入1！312元,其中出售农副产品货币收入48．周元。1992年全国农副产品商品率为5449％,比1980年高4个百分点;农民人均现金收入808！6元,其中出售农副产品货币收人462．67元,分别是1980年的人M倍和4．85倍（按可比价格计算人！996年全国农副产品商品率为56．439．比！992年高2个百分点;农民人均现金收入192701元,其…     

中国城镇养老保险制度收入分配效应的影响因素研究

经过30多年的改革开放,我国经济发展取得了令人瞩目的成就,人民物质生活水平有了很大的提高。其中,老年人的收入水平也得到了极大的提高。然而,随着近几年经济增长的逐渐放缓,城镇之间养老金收入差距状况有逐渐扩大的趋势,这很大程度上是由于城镇居民收入的分配差距拉大造成的。老年人口的收入问题应该从收入分配的大格局中考虑,并探究影响我国城镇养老保险制度收入分配效益的因素。从实际购买力方面考虑,人均GDP、养老金替代率的发展可以促进人均养老金的增长;从人口和就业方面考虑,过高的养老金可能会对就业产生巨大压力;从教育方面考虑,随着教育水平和工资水平的提高,居民对于养老保险的意识逐渐增强,可以促进养老保险的发展。     

电能消费与人文发展水平之间的关联分析——基于50个国家面板数据的实证研究

利用面板数据模型分析50个国家电能消费与5个人文发展指标之间的变化特点及规律.结果表明:①国家的收入水平越高,电能消费量越大,人文发展水平也越高,4个收入水平分组国家的差异明显；②随着收入的增加,单位电能消费对增加人均GDP和人均居民消费支出的贡献在增强,而对提高城市化率、人口的预期寿命和成人识字率的贡献则呈减弱趋势；③为促进人文发展必需加快电力建设,改善低收入居民对电力的可获得性.     

我国城乡收入差距影响因素的动态计量分析

文章运用动态计量的研究方法分析了经济因素对城乡收入差距的影响因素,得出的基本结论是:在长期中,非农人口占总人口的比重是影响收入差距的最主要因素且为正向影响;在短期内,人均GDP和非农人口占总人口的比重对城乡收入差距比率的影响为反向的,第二、三产业占GDP的比重对收入差距的影响为正向,但随着时间的推移影响会越来越趋近于零;在城乡收入差距的未来预期波动中,影响收入差距的最主要因素是人均GDP,其次为非农人口占总人口的比重,且其影响越来越大,而第二、三产业占GDP的比重的影响最小。因此,要缩小城乡收入差距就要不断提高城乡居民的人均GDP、非农人口占总人口的比重和第二、三产业占GDP的比重。     

中国地区居民生活水平比较——基于全球夜间灯光数据

当衡量一国或地区居民生活水平时,统计学上一般有收入和消费两种视角。本文利用城乡住户调查中的人均可支配收入和国民经济核算中的居民消费水平,以全球夜间灯光数据为参照,综合收入端与消费端信息,对1997—2016年中国31个地区的真实生活水平进行比较分析。研究证实,灯光亮度与消费水平和人均可支配收入之间均存在显著的线性关系,可以用来估算真实生活水平。根据不同模型的回归结果得到,真实生活水平的最优无偏估计中消费水平的权重范围为（2795%,3831%）,人均可支配收入水平的权重范围为（6169%,7205%）。相对于消费水平,人均可支配收入更能准确地反映真实生活水平。本文进一步分析发现,样本期内居民生活水平增速小于人均GDP增速,可见经济的发展并未完全转化为生活水平的提高。中西部地区与东部地区的生活水平仍然存在巨大差距,东部地区的平均生活水平分别是中部和西部地区的17倍和21倍。     

城镇化会提高生活用能需求吗 ?——基于中国2003-2013年省际面板数据的检验

城镇化进程既是人口由农村转移至城市的过程,也是经济发展和城乡居民收入提高的过程,其对"生活用能需求"的影响相应地有结构效应和收入效应.文章据此构建了一个包含控制变量的城镇化率与人均G D P交互作用的"生活用能需求"模型,并运用中国2003-2013年的省际面板数据进行了系统的实证检验.结果表明:(1)经济发展初期,人口从农村到城市的转移对生活用能具有正效应,但会随经济发展水平的提高而减弱,当经济发展到一定阶段后,结构效应为负.(2)人均GD P对"生活用能需求"的正向影响在城镇化进程中也逐步减弱,但收入效应始终为正.因此总体看,城镇化会提高"生活用能需求",但这主要是由于收入水平提高的结果;仅从人口结构的变动看,在中国目前的发展阶段,人口由农村转移至城市有利于节能.(3)城镇化进程中收入水平提高和人口结构变化对居民"生活用能需求"的不同影响存在地区差异.文章的研究为推进新型城镇化建设和城镇化节能的国家战略提供了经验支持.     

江苏省农业生产过程中碳减排潜力的理论与实证分析

基于农户非农就业的视角,从理论和实证两个方面,结合江苏省的时序数据,运用最小二乘估计、格兰杰因果关系检验等分析方法,验证了农户非农就业有助于农业生产过程中碳减排的假说。研究发现：农户人均非农收入与农业收入之差每扩大1%,将会使得农业生产中碳排放减少约2.79%;农户人均非农收入与农业收入之差和亩均化肥投入之间确实存在长期负向的协整关系;而且农户人均非农收入与农业收入之差的扩大是导致亩均化肥投入量减少的格兰杰原因。表明农户人均非农收入相对于其农业收入越高,越有利于农业生产过程中的碳减排。针对以上分析结论,提出了相应的建议。     

The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna

A case-control study of the car-free model housing project in Vienna was conducted to evaluate whether people living in this settlement have more ‘sustainable lifestyles’ than people living in comparable buildings in Vienna. Another aim was to identify the lifestyle characteristics and household activities which significantly influence the environmental impact of the residents of the car-free housing project and a control group. The control group, referred to as the reference settlement, was chosen from a nearby building complex, with similar characteristics, but without the car-free feature. Household consumption patterns were estimated based on interviews in combination with data from the Austrian consumer expenditure survey and the national accounts. The evaluation of household environmental impacts uses emissions estimates from the Austrian national accounting matrices including environmental accounts and data from life-cycle assessments. Households from the car-free settlement have substantially lower environmental impacts in the categories of ground transportation and energy use; their CO₂ emissions of these two categories are less than 50% of those living in the reference settlement. The households in the car-free settlement have somewhat higher emissions in the categories air transport, nutrition, and ‘other’ consumption, reflecting the higher income per-capita. As a result, the CO₂ emissions are only slightly lower than in the reference settlement, but the emissions intensity is 20% lower. Both household groups have significantly lower environmental impacts than the Austrian average reflecting less car use and cleaner heating energy in Vienna.     

Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach

This paper uses the panel data of energy consumption and GDP for 82 countries from 1972 to 2002. Based on the income levels defined by the World Bank, the data are divided into four categories: low income group, lower middle income group, upper middle income group, and high income group. We employ the GMM-SYS approach for the estimation of the panel VAR model in each of the four groups. Afterwards, the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is tested and ascertained. We discover: (a) in the low income group, there exists no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth; (b) in the middle income groups (lower and upper middle income groups), economic growth leads energy consumption positively; (c) in the high income group countries, economic growth leads energy consumption negatively. After further in-depth analysis of energy related data, the results indicate that, in the high income group, there is a great environmental improvement as a result of more efficient energy use and reduction in the release of CO₂. However, in the upper middle income group countries, after the energy crisis, the energy efficiency declines and the release of CO₂ rises. Since there is no evidence indicating that energy consumption leads economic growth in any of the four income groups, a stronger energy conservation policy should be pursued in all countries.     

The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

This paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Since old people display different consumption patterns than young people, an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns. Micro data from a household survey are used to identify age-specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030. The resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input-output model, which allows the calculation of sectoral production, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The model results suggest that until 2030, demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. The model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy-induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport.     

论全球性食品和能源危机的应对策略

本文借助现有文献和中国城乡住户抽样调查统计说明,中国的食品和能源价格上涨幅度虽然低于国际市场,但已对低收入住户的家计造成冲击。城市低收入户用低价食品替代高价食品;农户实际消费总支出降低,恩格尔系数增大,衣着和燃料支出比重减少。农户的膳食更加不均衡,贫困群体的营养不足状况加剧。因此,需要全社会共同行动,由政府采取应急措施,停止补贴以食品为原料的生物能源企业,瞄准贫困人口实施食品救助。需要采取的中长期策略是,遏制垄断,改善竞争环境,消除食品和能源价格扭曲。长期改革政策在于,调整社会结构,校正要素价格形成机制,转变经济增长方式。     

More or better? Measuring quality versus quantity in food consumption

As people become richer they get the opportunity of consuming more but also qualitatively better goods. This holds for a basic commodity like food as well. We investigate food consumption in Russia, taking into account both expenditure and nutrition value in terms of calories. We analyse how food consumption patterns change with increasing income by considering both “quantity Engel curves” and “quality Engel curves.” The former describe the functional dependence of calories consumed on total expenditure. The latter trace out the dependence of unit value per calorie on total expenditure. We compare income elasticities of quantity with income elasticities of unit value and quality. In Russian household survey data for years 2000–2002 the reaction of quality to income changes is significantly stronger than the reaction of quantity to income changes suggesting that Russian households tend to choose higher quality food items as income rises.     

Forest incomes and rural livelihoods in Chiradzulu District, Malawi

This paper examines forest income among rural dwellers in one of Malawi's most densely populated districts, Chiradzulu. 160 households were interviewed in two sites, only 20 km apart, purposely selected on the basis of access to a forest reserve. People are extremely poor, with 97% having incomes of less than 1 USD/day. Forest income constitutes around 15% of total income; only non-farm income (47%) and agriculture (28%) rank higher. The poorest segment depends more on forest income than the least poor group, but the medium income group exhibits the highest dependence. Fuelwood constitutes the major source of such income followed by fodder. The incomes mainly support current consumption. People with better access to the forest reserve have higher total income, forest income, and relative forest income. As revealed through a Gini-coefficient analysis, forest resources have an important income equalizing effect across rural households. A particular group of resource poor farmers (8.1% of sample), with little access to agricultural land and a high representation of female heads, derives an average of 65% of their income from the forest. An important policy lesson is that restricting people's access to forest resources can have substantial effects on household livelihoods and welfare, and would serve to increase income inequalities in the area. Livelihood researchers should now recognize the substantial income from forest resources.     

Perspectives on International Trends and Dynamics in Population and Consumption

There are increasing concerns that global environmental limits may soon be met as a result of increasing numbers of people coupled with increasing consumption of resources. However, the current level and rates of growth in both consumption and population vary systematically among countries grouped according to income levels. Many high income countries have population growth rates at close to replacement levels, but their per capita consumption is consistently several times higher than low income countries. Low income countries need to grow out of poverty and have high population growth rates. Using current population structures for India and the USA in an age-structured demographic model, and simple projections of annual reductions in fertility or consumption per capita over the next 50 years, we show that while reductions in both consumption and fertility are necessary to stabilize impacts, there are short term gains from consumption reductions in high income countries such as the USA, and long term gains from early fertility reductions in growing economies such as India.     

间接税归宿对城乡居民收入分配影响研究

使用全国城乡家庭消费和收入微观数据考察间接税对于城乡收入差距和收入分配的影响发现:平均来看,全国居民负担的税收占收入的比例是10.6%;不论在全国范围来看还是分别在城乡内部来看,间接税负担都呈现累退:低收入的负担率高于高收入的负担率。在城乡之间,城镇居民的税收负担率高于农村居民的税收负担率。间接税增加了城乡内部不平等,降低了城乡之间的不平等。间接税主要对低收入群体影响较大,略微恶化了整体收入不平等。     

间接税归宿对城乡居民收入分配影响研究

使用全国城乡家庭消费和收入微观数据考察间接税对于城乡收入差距和收入分配的影响发现:平均来看,全国居民负担的税收占收入的比例是10.6%;不论在全国范围来看还是分别在城乡内部来看,间接税负担都呈现累退:低收入的负担率高于高收入的负担率。在城乡之间,城镇居民的税收负担率高于农村居民的税收负担率。间接税增加了城乡内部不平等,降低了城乡之间的不平等。间接税主要对低收入群体影响较大,略微恶化了整体收入不平等。     

Conspicuous Leisure: Optimal Income Taxation When Both Relative Consumption and Relative Leisure Matter*

In previous studies on public policy under relative‐consumption concerns, leisure comparisons have been ignored. In this paper, we consider a two‐type optimal non‐linear income tax model, in which people care about both their relative consumption and their relative leisure. Increased consumption positionality typically implies higher marginal income tax rates for both ability types, whereas leisure positionality has an offsetting role. However, this offsetting role is not symmetric; concern about relative leisure implies a progressive income tax component (i.e., a component that is larger for the high‐ability type than for the low‐ability type). Leisure positionality does not modify the policy rule for public‐good provision.