我国海洋捕捞业生产的波动特征及成因分析

基于我国海洋捕捞产量的历史数据,应用H-P滤波分析法,研究了我国海洋捕捞生产的长期趋势和短期波动特征。研究表明:建国以来我国海洋捕捞产量共完成9轮周期,各周期波幅普遍较大,但近年来海洋捕捞产量已趋于稳定;在空间层面上,黄海、东海和南海海域捕捞产量的长期演变趋势与全国总产量较为相似,而渤海捕捞产量近年则呈现下降的趋势;通过比较平均周期波动高度发现,远洋海域捕捞生产的扩张能力要强于近海海域。此外,通过实证探究海洋捕捞业投入与产出的关联波动情况,结合不同阶段的政策背景及资源状况,剖析了捕捞产量波动规律形成的具体成因。     

投入、隐性因素与大学技术成果转化——基于中国大学专利出售数据的实证分析

近年来我国大学专利申请量和授权量增长迅速,而专利转化率却没有相应提高。本文基于中国大学2000-2012年数据,以专利出售量度量技术转化水平,估计了研发投入、转化投入和制度等隐性因素对大学技术成果转化的影响。研究发现:(1)研发经费投入和转化经费投入对大学技术成果转化有显著正向影响,这种影响受到制度等隐性因素制约;(2)制度等隐性因素对大学技术成果转化有显著正向影响;(3)研发人力投入和转化人力投入对大学技术成果转化没有显著影响。现阶段,与增加投入相比,改善技术转化专职人员的结构和素质,完善激励相容的转让制度,将对改变我国技术成果转化率低的现状产生更大影响。     

海洋科技投入对海洋经济增长的协动性影响研究

以2001-2015年的我国海洋科技投入、海洋经济增长、国内经济增长方面的年度数据为样本,采用熵值法确定海洋科技投入指标体系中各指标的权重,并运用VAR模型对海洋科技投入对海洋经济增长的动态冲击影响进行实证研究.结果表明:海洋科技投入的增加对提高国内生产总值、海洋生产总值、海洋第一、第二、第三产业生产总值有促进作用,海洋科技投入的冲击对各项海洋经济增长有显著的振荡作用,同时对不同海洋经济产业类型的冲击有着不同的特征.     

沿海省份海洋科技投入产出效率及其影响因素实证研究

分析方法中的C2R模型对我国沿海11个省份2009—2014年的海洋科技投入产出面板数据进行测算,分析可能影响沿海省份海洋科技投入产出效率的因素并进行实证检验。研究结果表明:海洋科研机构规模和海洋经济发展水平对海洋科技投入产出效率具有显著推动作用,而政府支持力度、海洋科技人员结构这两个因素对海洋科技投入产出效率的推动作用不显著,据此提出了提高沿海省份海洋科技投入产出效率的对策建议。     

海洋创新驱动、海洋产业结构升级与海洋经济高质量发展——基于面板门槛回归模型的实证分析

通过运用我国11个沿海省份2006—2018年的数据,构建面板门槛回归模型,研究以海洋创新驱动为门槛变量时,海洋产业结构升级对海洋经济高质量发展的影响作用。研究表明:海洋产业结构升级能够显著促进海洋全要素生产率提高;海洋产业结构升级对海洋经济高质量发展的促进作用受到海洋创新驱动水平制约而存在门槛效应;外商资本投资水平、R&D经费投入情况均是海洋经济高质量发展的重要影响因素;南部、东部海洋经济圈中海洋产业结构升级能够有效促进海洋经济高质量发展,而北部海洋经济圈则较不显著。最后,从重点培育海洋高新技术产业、提升海洋科技转化应用能力、优化海洋创新驱动制度环境、促进海洋经济区域协同发展四个方面提出相关措施建议。     

“三渔”的一道风险保障

渔业属于一个高投入、高风险的行业，特别是海洋捕捞业，极易遭受台风等自然灾害，并严重影响渔业安全生产。对渔民来说，渔船是重要的生产工具和主要财产，一旦遭灾，往往很难自行恢复生产，因灾返贫的现象时有发生。这就造成在台风来临时，有部分渔民为了看护渔船，常常不愿意上岸，给平安渔业建设带来极大隐患。近年来，浙江省渔业互保协会通过渔业互助保险，给渔民提供了极大的安全保障。     

行业动向

由于水域污染,过度捕捞和近海渔业资源衰退等因素影响,我国海洋渔业发展面临严峻形势。据农业部渔业局提供的消息,今年一季度,河北省的捕捞渔船中,大多停产或半停产状态,占渔船总数的36％。江苏大部分底拖网休渔期未到就已全部停港歇产。国内水产品市场价格下降,造成部分地区水产品压塘、压库,加之生产资料如苗种、饲料价格有一定上升,渔业生产成本提高,渔民增产不增收。     

我国制造业行业短期波动对长期增长的影响研究——基于CPMG估计方法

文章使用改革以来我国制造业行业面板数据以及考虑截面相关性的混合组均值(CPMG)估计方法,对我国经济短期波动是否通过全要素生产率和投资渠道对长期增长产生影响进行了实证研究,并区分改革不同阶段以及不同要素密集程度行业进行了比较。研究结果表明:在改革的前一阶段,我国制造业行业短期波动通过生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响,而对投资的影响不会显著为负;在改革的后一阶段,劳动密集型行业短期波动通过全要素生产率渠道对长期增长有显著的正面影响,对投资的影响显著为负,而资本密集型行业短期波动对全要素生产率和投资的影响都不显著。上述结论对不同的波动度量方法是稳健的。     

中国制度变迁和经济增长的实证分析

文章运用人工神经网络和回归的方法对我国制度变迁与经济增长进行了实证分析,并对全要素生产率增长率的波动与实际产出增长率的波动进行了比较分析。结果表明制度变迁对经济增长有显著的非线性影响,全要素生产率增长对经济增长贡献的潜力和空间很大。今后我国经济制度的变迁应致力于提高全要素生产率。     

短期经济波动如何影响长期增长趋势?

短期经济波动如何影响长期经济平均增长趋势已成为一个新的研究热点。本文研究我国省际数据发现,波动性对长期增长趋势有显著影响:1978年前,波动性与平均增长呈负相关的特征在多数省份出现;1978年后,两者关系主要表现为正相关。本文通过建立内生随机增长模型,研究波动与增长之间的内在关联,提出了实际波动与增长关系的一种合理解释。模型的基本思想是:人力资本形成过程分为自然形成和主观形成,教育投入等决定主观形成过程的因素的多少是决定波动性如何影响长期经济增长方向的关键。当教育投入较高,以致主观过程占优时,波动性对长期增长趋势有正效应;反之,当自然过程占优时,波动性对平均增长有负效应。模型结论与建国后的发展历史相印证:1978年前,生产水平低,教育投入少,人力资本形成中干中学比例占优,因而波动性同增长呈负相关;1978年恢复高考后,教育正常化,生产发展,教育投入增加,因而波动性与增长逐渐呈现正相关。     

海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表编制研究

海洋捕捞渔业资源对我国的海洋经济发展、食品生产与居民就业具有重大意义,其资产负债表的编制有助于摸清家底,实现渔业资源的可持续利用.本研究系统梳理了相关研究成果,从会计假设、会计要素、编制步骤三个方面阐述了海洋捕捞渔业资源资产负债表的编制思路,结合生态补偿探讨了海洋捕捞渔业资源负债,将其划分为应付海洋捕捞渔业资源补偿、应...     

Species diversity, fishing induced change in carrying capacity and sustainable fisheries management

It is well established in the fisheries management literature that marine ecosystems are complex and marine species depend on one another. As a result, it is important to account for species diversity to ensure sustainable management. In addition, recent research published in the marine sciences literature has provided unequivocal evidence that fishing activities destroy habitats and inhibit production of planktons. This paper illustrates that if a conventional bioeconomic model is employed, an optimum effort policy as opposed to quota appears to result in sustainable management even if fishing impacts carrying capacity. However, the so-called optimum effort may collapse the stock if species diversity is not accounted for. Conversely, if species diversity and the impact of fishing on carrying capacity are considered, neither the equilibrium quota nor effort may guarantee sustainable yield.     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

Optimum reserve size,fishing induced change in carrying capacity,and phenotypic diversity

Fish stocks around the world are heavily overexploited in spite of fishing policies in several parts of the world designed to limit overfishing. Recent studies have found that the complexity of ecological systems and the diversity of species, as well as negative impact of fishing activities on environmental carrying capacity of fish stocks—all contribute to the problem. A number of biologists, managers, and practitioners strongly support the use of marine reserves as a management strategy for marine conservation. This paper contributes to this line of research by seeking an optimum reserve size and fishing effort for situations where species diversity decrease at fishing grounds and fishing activities impact carrying capacity. We found that a reserve size which maximizes economic rents could ruin a fish stock if fishing impacts are not accounted for. On the other hand, the reserve serves as a bifurcation term which could improve the resilience of a marine ecosystem.     

The effects of El Niño on the mackerel purse-seine fishery harvests in Taiwan: An analysis integrating the barometric readings and sea surface temperature

The harvest of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan fell sharply by 47.75% following the strong El Niño of 1997/1998. In this study, we try to incorporate El Niño barometric readings and sea surface temperature measurements into analysis for predicting the biomass. Using daily logbook records of the mackerel purse-seine fishery from 1982 to 1999, we identify the factors that influence the catch of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan. Based on an empirical model and the results of a fishing fleet cost survey, we estimate the average cost and the welfare loss associated with an El Niño. A time-series simulation shows that adding the El Niño barometric readings information improves the accuracy of biomass forecasts. It also shows that about 14 months after the strong El Niño has occurred, the biomass index is 13.2% lower and the number of fishing day is 10.4% higher. The estimated welfare loss of all mackerel purse-seine fleets during September to January in the year subsequent to the El Niño is about US$6 million. Policy implications of the study are also discussed.     

Biological “hot spots” and their effect on optimal bioeconomic marine reserve formation

Biological “hot spots” are regions within a fishery that possess a larger growth potential than the surrounding areas. This paper analyzes how these biological hot spots influence the optimal bioeconomic marine reserve formation within a fishery. The presence of biological hot spots within a fishery creates an environment within which it is optimal to establish a marine reserve that increases the productivity and therefore the value of the fishery. This result is analyzed using heterogeneity in the intrinsic growth rates and carrying capacities within a fishery. Simulation results illustrate that the optimal reserve size in the presence of biological hot spots depends not only on the productive capacity of the reserve and the surrounding fishing grounds, but also on the degree of heterogeneity between the two regions.     

科技创新促进中国海洋经济高质量发展了吗——基于科技创新对海洋经济绿色全要素生产率影响的实证检验

推动海洋经济高质量发展是建设海洋强国的必然选择。采用2001—2016年沿海省市面板数据,测算我国沿海省市海洋经济绿色全要素生产率,从线性和非线性角度研究科技创新对海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的影响。结果表明：总体上看,近年来我国海洋经济绿色全要素生产率呈先大幅波动后趋向平稳的状态,年均增长率为2.85%,海洋经济绿色全要素生产率增长主要源于技术进步指数而非技术效率指数;科技创新对于海洋经济绿色全要素生产率具有显著促进作用,有助于海洋经济高质量发展;科技创新对海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的影响存在单一门槛效应,越过门槛之后,对于海洋经济绿色全要素生产率的提升作用会更加显著。在海洋经济同样步入新常态背景下,必须坚持从要素和投资驱动转向创新驱动的海洋经济高质量发展道路。     

Heterogeneous Response to Marine Reserve Formation: A Sorting Model approach

The bioeconomic impacts of spatial fisheries management hinge on how fishing vessels reallocate their effort over space. However, empirical studies face two challenges: heterogeneous behavioral responses and unobservable resource abundance. This paper addresses these two problems simultaneously by using an unusual data set and an estimation technique developed in the industrial organization literature. We apply the methods to location and species choices in the Gulf of Mexico reef-fish fishery. The models are used to explore spatial effort substitution in response to two marine reserves. Individual attributes from a survey of vessel captains are linked to each fisherman’s observed daily trip information to control for observable heterogeneity. Some unobservable abundance information is captured by location- and species-specific constants and estimated by contraction mapping. The empirical results confirm that there is significant heterogeneity in fishermen’s response to the formation of marine reserves. They also show that ignoring unobservable abundance information will lead to significant bias in predicting spatial fishing effort.     

中国海洋科技资源配置研究

基于中国海洋科技资源配置现状,提出了当前存在的两个关键学术问题。探讨了“海洋科技梯度”的内涵定义,构建了基于涉海城市的“海洋科技梯度系数测度改进模型”;搜集整理了2001—2014年海洋科研机构的科技统计数据,在海洋科技创新效率测度的基础上,测算了全国涉海城市的海洋科技梯度,深入分析了我国海洋科技资源配置的总体规律。研究表明：我国海洋科技资源配置在区域空间上呈现“东高北高、南低中西低”布局,以行政为导向呈现出北上广的强势崛起,以政策为导向呈现出深圳、南宁、沈阳、济南等的后发优势。最后,讨论了当前海洋科技资源配置的形成原因,并提出了对策建议。     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.