ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

云南省城镇供水行业市场化改革的适应性分析

针对云南省地处边疆、地形复杂、经济水平发展不高、供水设施不完善等特点,结合供水行业的特性和云南省供水行业市场化改革的进程,分别从基础设施条件、政策法规以及监管保障、水价机制3个方面对云南省城镇供水行业市场改革的适应性进行相关分析,提出云南省城镇供水行业市场化改革需以较为完善的供水设施为基础、以试点探索适合云南省省情的改革模式,增强行业竞争性,积极稳妥地推进市场化改革,逐步形成市场竞争和水价形成机制。     

论我国海洋环境准公共物品市场化供给方式选择

海洋环境是具有非排他性和非竞争性的公共物品,可以分为海洋环境纯公共公共物品、俱乐部物品和共有资源三类。随着社会经济的发展,政府全部承担海洋环境公共物品面临着巨大压力,出现了产出低效率、供不应求等问题,海洋环境公共物品的供给需要探求市场化的供给方式。根据海洋环境公共物品的分类,政府在海洋环境纯公共物品供给过程中发挥主要作用,海洋环境准公共物品由市场供给,供给方式主要有BOT、PPP、TOT三种。     

浙江省林产品贸易现状及其国际竞争力提升途径

浙江既是经济大省又是资源小省,入世后国际市场国内化、国内市场国际化趋势日趋明显。如何有效利用国际国内两个市场、两种资源,扩大木质林产品进口缓减资源短缺压力,同时提高非木质林产品市场竞争能力扩大出口,是今后浙江林业发展的重要战略选择。本文通过对1997～2002年浙江主要林产品进出口情况进行分析,认为浙江林产品进出口贸易具有:⑴进出口规模小,但增长幅度快;⑵进口林产品以木质资源为主,具有较强的资源补缺作用;⑶出口林产品结构不断优化,附加值不断提高等特点。在分析林产品国际贸易环境新变化的基础上,提出了提升浙江省林产品国际竞争力的具体途径。     

Allocation trade in Australia: a qualitative understanding of irrigator motives and behaviour*

Governments in Australia are purchasing water entitlements to secure water for environmental benefit, but entitlements generate an allocation profile that does not correspond fully to environmental flow requirements. Therefore, how environmental managers will operate to deliver small and medium‐sized inundation environmental flows remains uncertain. To assist environmental managers with the supply of inundation flows at variable times, it has been suggested that allocation trade be incorporated into efforts aimed at securing water. This paper provides some qualitative and quantitative perspective on what influences southern Murray–Darling Basin irrigators to trade allocation water at specific times across and within seasons using a market transaction framework. The results suggest that while irrigators now have access to greater risk‐management options, environmental managers should consider the possible impact of institutional change before intervening in traditional market activity. The findings may help improve the design of intervention strategies to minimise possible market intervention impacts and strategic behaviour.     

Economics of Quota Allocation Within Supply Managemnt Analysis of the Present Procedures for Quota Allocation

The institution of supply management has evolved to deal with a farm income problem and to achieve social objectives such as the maintenance of the family farm. In many respects, the institutions have developed in response to significant technological and market development that had potentially profound impacts on the number, size and profitability of farm operations. Supply management has proven successful in transfer— ring income, partially stabilizing prices and production and arresting the spread of vertical integration and maintaining the "family farm." Although the institution has had its failures, more specifically, income transfers have been capitalized into asset values. Second generation farmers will face higher costs and will benefit only if they too can "short the market" and extract monopoly profits from the marketplace. Further, the rigidities in quota allocation methods have inhibited resource allocation, necessary structural adjustments and imposed real costs to consumers. These negative results are incongruent to an otherwise viable and dynamic Canadian agriculture.
Is It North It
One may argue that the consequences of regulation, which are reduced efficiency/competitiveness and lost opportunities, are acceptable if it is felt a transfer of benefits to a disadvantaged group of society is needed. However, can it be held that those farmers operating under supply management remain disadvantaged? If not, regulatory reform and/or adjustments are needed. Otherwise, the tendency towards deregulation in the general economy, widening price gaps, consumer resistance, and the like will lead to imposed changes by regulatory authorities.
Supply management is an acceptable regulatory tool that should be employed to achieve a myriad of policy objectives.     

The Impact of Organizational Form on Producer Contracting Decisions

A variable that has not yet been considered in the contracting literature is the impact of agribusiness organizational form on the producer's contracting decision. Contracts with cooperatives are more complicated decisions for producers than a standard marketing contract with noncooperatives because of the requisite membership capital investment in the firm. Contracting with cooperatives requires producers to make a dual supply and investment decision. Individual membership equity holdings in all agricultural cooperatives are increasing, but they are generally most substantial in the value-added, new-generation cooperatives. Portfolio theory is used to analyze the producer's decision to contract with three alternatively structured value-added processing organizations in an uncertain environment: a traditional cooperative, a new-generation cooperative and an investor-oriented firm. In the cooperative cases, the contract requires both supply and equity investment.     

中国木材市场监测指标体系构建实践

基于9个省域11个木材市场的调研数据,并结合已有文献中的研究成果,从市场监测角度出发,应用信息科学理论分析木材市场影响因素并构建监测指标体系。结果表明:影响木材市场运行的外部因素有4个方面23个主要指标,内在因素有9个方面59个主要指标;内在因素中能够持续反映和左右木材市场监测并构成指标体系的有4个方面25个具体指标,可为木材市场监测系统平台开发提供参考依据、市场行情分析奠定参数基础;同时,决定市场信息采集的核心指标有13个,这为采集模板设计和市场数据获取提供了基本遵循。     

关于我国粮食安全保护问题的几点思考

尽管我国粮食实现了8年连续增产,但是,从外部环境、市场供求价格、进出口贸易方面分析,粮食安全问题仍然不可掉以轻心。据此,必须合理上调粮食价格,让利益趋动粮食生产持续发展;正确看待土地规模经营与流转,大力推进粮食生产服务外包,让地尽其力,从源头上解决粮食安全问题;从宏观整体的高度协调好政策环境、资源供给、市场管理、区域经济发展、对外贸易各种关系,确保国家粮食长期、稳定、持续安全。     

Agriculture in the United States,Mexico, Canada Agreement: Agreeing to keep things pretty much the same

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was referred to by U.S. President Trump as one of the worst trade deals ever made. Given this billing, one might have expected the result of its renegotiation to be a major change to the trading relationship between the United States and Canada. The new United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement (USMCA), however, retains a great deal of its predecessor. This is particularly true for agricultural trade. Canadian market access into the United States remains virtually unchanged. No major domestic regulatory changes were agreed to by Canada. While there were concessions made on market access for U.S. products into Canada's heavily protected sectors where the supply management policy applies, they do not appear to threaten the system. While the value of the compensation has not yet been announced, compensation for losses that will be suffered by farmers producing under supply management is agreed in principle. The USMCA is an agreement to keep things pretty much the same.     

Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach

In this paper, option-pricing theory is applied to an investment problem in hog production. A stochastic simulation model capable of pricing American-type options is developed. This is achieved by recursive calculation of the exercise frontier. The model is used to determine the investment trigger and the disinvestment trigger for a pig-fattening barn under German market conditions. It turns out that the investment trigger, taking into account the value of waiting in an uncertain environment, can be considerably higher compared to classical investment criteria such as the net present value. This offers an explanation as to why farmers are indeed reluctant to invest in hog production. Another finding is the sensitivity of the option prices with respect to the stochastic process that is assumed for revenues and variable costs of the production activity.     

论入世对我国矿业的影响及对策

加入WTO对中国矿业发展有利有弊.作者从充分利用国外资源和市场、改造并提升我国矿业公司生存能力、改善进出口环境、加强法制建设改善矿业投资环境等4个方面论述了入世对矿业有利的一面.但是应当看到,由于我国大宗矿产资源总体秉赋条件较差,入世后面临外矿的冲击,有可能危及国家资源供应安全.为此,建议国家遵循国际大趋势,及早改革矿业税制,减轻税负,以提升矿山的市场竞争能力.     

基于PEST模型的德清休闲农业发展战略研究

[目的]以休闲农业发展具有典型性的德清县为例,通过PEST模型分析其休闲农业发展环境和特色路径,制定休闲农业发展战略,以期为德清及其他县域休闲农业发展提供参考。[方法]利用PEST模型,结合德清县休闲农业发展现状,分别从政治、经济、社会及技术等4个方面分析对其休闲农业的影响。[结果]德清县休闲农业拥有政策环境良好、区域经济水平提高、产业结构调整、旅游消费观念转变、消费环境改善、技术发展及应用较好的优势,同时存在政策落实不到位、规划不协调、融资困难、市场无序竞争、技术供应不能满足发展需求以及人才流失等问题,面临着经济新常态背景下和云计算、物联网、大数据等新技术对休闲农业产业发展的挑战。[结论]基于此,提出四大战略:(1)构建监管体系,促进可持续发展;(2)扩大金融产品供给,促进产业融合;(3)对接消费需求,提升市场竞争力;(4)强化人才支撑,促进智慧化发展。     

图们江区域开发下延吉市环城游憩带发展的深层思考

通过对延吉市环城游憩带建设的市场供给与需求、发展条件与机遇、发展潜力、发展原则的分析,从区域开发的角度对延吉市环城游憩带建设的可行性进行探索,提出延吉市应在目前环城游憩带雏形的基础上,抓住中国图们江区域合作开发的契机,在考虑生态环境、民族文化、居民态度的条件下,因地制宜、循序渐近地利用本地边境优势和民族特色,充分挖掘延吉市环城游憩的需求市场潜力,进一步优化延吉市的环城游憩带,建立和完善城市旅游的空间布局体系。     

北京都市型休闲渔业发展的供求分析

论文运用产业发展供求分析法,分析北京都市型休闲渔业发展动力与外部环境。从需求分析看,北京市已经具备都市型休闲渔业大发展的客源市场条件,而且乡村休闲观念和休闲时间增加为都市型休闲渔业发展提供了增强的消费偏好。从供给分析看,喜忧参半的自然条件为节水型的休闲渔业发展提供了一定的发展空间,丰富的资源禀赋和优越的区位及交通条件为都市型休闲渔业发展提供了必要条件。在分析供求和政策环境的基础上,提出了明确管理部门、制定发展规划、塑造特色品牌、与地方结构调整相结合等推进都市型休闲渔业发展的对策建议。     

Case Studies of Direct Marketing Value-Added Pork Products in a Commodity Market

Differentiation and branding of fresh pork products have created interest in the potential for swine producers to invest further up the pork supply chain to capture a greater share of the consumer's dollar. However, the ultimate success of producer-owned ventures will depend on their ability to identify market opportunities and execute merchandising strategies to maintain sales of a perishable and seasonally variable pork product in a commodity market environment. To better understand the competitive issues in pork marketing on a small scale, three firms already engaged in direct marketing of fresh pork products are examined and reported as case studies.     

Smallholders,institutional services,and commercial transformation in Ethiopia

This article examines the role of institutional services of credit, input supply, and extension in the overall commercial transformation process of smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia. Survey data collected in 2006 from 309 sample households in three districts of Ethiopia are used for the analyses. Tobit regression models are used to measure the effect of access to services on the intensity of inputs use for fertilizer and agrochemicals. A probit model is used to measure these effects on the adoption of improved seeds. Intensity of use of seeds is analyzed using an ordinary least squares model. Logarithmic Cobb–Douglass functions are estimated to analyze the effect of access to services on crop productivity. Heckman's two‐stage estimation is used to examine determinants of household market participation and the extents of participation. Results show that access to institutional support services plays a significant role in enhancing smallholder productivity and market orientation. Our results imply that expanding and strengthening the institutional services is critical for the intensification and market orientation of smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia. In particular, appropriate incentives and regulatory systems are urgently needed to encourage the involvement of the private sector in the provision of agricultural services.     

中国森林碳汇需求研究

首先,在梳理了相关文献的基础上,归纳总结了森林碳汇的相关概念、森林碳汇的计量方法、森林碳汇的效益。其次,阐述了中国森林碳汇市场需求不足的现状。再次,对森林碳汇需求及其影响因素进行研究分析。其中,企业森林碳汇需求主要受内部特征因素、外部动力因素和市场机制三大因素影响;社会公众需求主要受个人特征因素、主观意识因素和外部条件因素三大因素影响。最后,提出要加强森林碳汇需求方面的研究等建议。     

中国储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花市场传递效应研究

文章以1978-2016年中国棉花价格、消费产量及轮入轮出数据为基础,采用联立方程模型,就储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花供需的传递效应进行实证分析。研究表明,中国棉花储备政策及轮入轮出机制对于平衡国内棉花市场供求、防止棉花价格过度波动起到积极的作用。储备棉轮入轮出机制对国内棉花产量、消费量的传递效应显著且存在一定差异,对国内棉花产量的传递效果要强于对国内棉花消费量的传递效应,产生这种差异的主要原因在于储备棉轮入轮出机制的传递路径有所不同。应坚持和完善储备棉轮入轮出机制,提升储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花需求的调控作用,实现储备棉轮入轮出机制常态化,通过明确储备棉轮入轮出机制的政策目标和市场定位,加强棉花市场信息系统建设,使储备棉轮入轮出机制成为我国棉花支持政策体系的主要手段。     

Land use regulation and urban land value: Evidence from China

Land use regulation has always been regarded as one of the most crucial means of macro-control of urban growth, which can affect a city’s land values directly and further determine related urban economic well-being. Since the New Type Urbanization Strategy proposed by the government in 2014, China’s mode of urban growth has been transformed from addressing “quantity” to “quality" in the urbanization process. In this case, the regulation of land use by the Chinese government plays a more important role in urban growth. With their planned land regulatory scheme, the various instruments employed by Chinese governments have quite different mechanisms influencing land prices. However, there are no rigorous studies focusing on the land use regulation system and its impact on land values to date, particular in China. This study seeks to explore how land use regulation affects urban land values through the systematic lens. We summarize the main land use regulatory instruments based on the analysis of China’s planned land use system and urban land banking system, including the construction land quota, constraints on the allowed floor area ratio (FAR) of each land transaction parcel, and land supply restrictions. A new dataset based on land transaction data from 2007 to 2016 that covers 286 prefectural cities from the country’s coastal, central, and western regions is used in the empirical analysis. The results show that the effects of the floor area ratio (FAR) on land values are significant and positive, with the residential and commercial land supply ratio being a key factor. Moreover, the results imply that the effects of constraints on FAR and commercial land supply vary between regions. These findings indicate that the Chinese land market is considerably distorted by excessive administrative interventions by local governments, in the stage of urban transition guided, the capable regulatory instruments could play an important role in adjusting urban land prices and hence impact on urban growth.