论国际金融风险与国际金融危机：从道德风险和资产泡沫视角的考察

亚洲一些国家的金融危机爆发以后 ,一个显著的特征是国内资产市场崩溃 ,大量金融机构倒闭 ,企业破产 ,经济增长下降。资产泡沫破灭以后对经济形成的巨大的冲击作用和金融业的道德风险在资产泡沫形成过程中的作用已经成为对金融危机研究的一个重要方面。这方面的研究可以帮助我们搞清楚当代世界金融危机的成因。一、常规货币危机理论缺些什么 ?大多数西方经济学家用常规货币危机理论来分析 1997— 1998年的亚洲金融危机 ,最近几年一部分学者开始把注意力转到研究资产价格与金融业的道德风险的关系上来。常规货币危机理论把注意力集中在分析汇…     

论后危机时代人民币面临的机遇和挑战

金融危机引发了各国对以美元为核心的国际货币体系弊端的深刻反思,加之我国汇改以来人民币的不断升值,人民币国际化问题再次成为国内外关注的热点。金融危机为人民币国际化提供了契机,带来了机遇,但人民币国际化在获取收益的同时也面临着风险,收益与风险并存。通过对目前国际货币体系的分析,探讨后危机时代人民币国际化所面临的机遇和挑战。     

货币危机理论模型——文献综述

20世纪90年代以来货币金融危机频繁爆发,给危机国家乃至世界经济带来了灾难性的影响,学界对货币危机的根源进行了大量的研究。文章对货币危机的传统理论及其最新进展做一综述,为以后的研究提供一个平台。     

货币危机理论模型文献综述

20世纪90年代以来货币金融危机频繁爆发,给危机国家乃至世界经济带来了灾难性的影响,学界对货币危机的根源进行了大量的研究。文章对货币危机的传统理论及其最新进展做一综述,为以后的研究提供一个平台。     

金融危机理论及危机拯救:一个比较分析

美国金融危机席卷全球,各国采取措施减少金融海啸的冲击。小国金融危机是大国与小国间的经济失衡及大国利用优势货币转嫁和分散风险的结果,具有外生性;大国金融危机是内部经济风险累积不可调和的产物,具有内生性。因而在拯救金融危机的策略上大国利用其国际货币地位和完善金融体系转嫁风险或分散危机;小国则要通过技术升级和产业结构调整才能摆脱金融危机及其冲击。     

金融危机形成与传染机制研究

我国加入WTO后,金融开放的深度和广度不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生,人民币可自由兑换是必然趋势,中国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。对金融危机的种类进行梳理,对金融危机的形成和传染机制进行分析,使之对金融危机的进一步研究起到有益帮助。     

后次贷时代与全球金融市场的自我救赎——基于非对称信息下的风险转移分析

美国次贷风波席卷全球,引发了更深层次的金融风暴。剖析次贷危机和金融风暴的本质有助于探索化解这场全球性金融危机的有效途径。深入分析可以发现次贷危机起源于疯狂的虚拟资本和荒谬的金融衍生品,金融监管的缺失和非对称信息使得危机愈演愈烈;次贷危机从美国向全球蔓延形成了"负外部性金融溢出"效应,外围国家正在承受金融全球化带来的风险转移。文章提出"金融创新半径"的概念,指出惟有遵循金融资源配置的客观规律才是金融创新的理性归宿;一切金融危机,其实质都是货币的危机,只有建立新的国际货币体系,加强人民币在国际货币体系中的地位和作用,才能共同走出"斯蒂格利茨陷阱"。     

从最优货币区理论看亚洲货币一体化

面对次贷危机引发的全球性金融风暴,亚洲各国迫切需要加强金融合作以增强抵御金融危机的能力,因此实现亚洲货币一体化再次成为热点问题.最优货币区理论探讨了货币一体化的优点,对欧元的形成作了理论上的铺垫.基于此,本文认为,该理论可以指导目前仍处于未知的亚洲货币一体化的实践.     

信用货币失范的道德风险：通胀与债务危机

现代信用货币是建立在信用基础之上的,货币生产伦理失范,就会产生两大风险：其一是通货膨胀,其二是债务风险。若这两大风险产生后,会诱发金融危机、阻止创新、投机盛行、国家债务危机和腐蚀人们的道德。当前所谓的货币政策的＂两难＂,是基于货币生产以及分配过程中存在伦理失范现象。中国应当警惕货币生产的伦理失范,防范恶性通货膨胀和债务危机的发生。     

危机下企业贸易结算方式的选择

美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机,使得国际货币价值发生了剧烈的波动,使中国经济的外部风险加剧,其中受到极大影响的便是我国的外贸企业。本文对常用的贸易结算方式以及特点加以分析,同时对不同贸易结算方式下的收汇风险加以比较,最后对金融危机下中国外贸企业贸易结算方式的选择以及风险防范加以阐述。     

美国金融危机传导机制的研究

目前,美国金融危机所产生的影响仍未消除,对外开放程度越高的国家受到的影响越严重。金融危机包括货币危机、外债危机、银行业危机以及资本市场危机,四种危机之间相互感染,通过金融、贸易、心理等渠道将其传导到不同的地理空间及市场或领域之中。危机的传导在时间和空间上是同步进行的,并产生"连锁反应",对世界各国的影响极为严重。世界各国应健全金融法规,加强投资者的教育,并加大各国之间的经济交流,以更好的防范金融危机,共谋世界经济平稳健康地发展。     

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the causes of financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980–2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries the vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalization of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.     

Banks,Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets

The East Asian financial crisis has raised a series of important issues. Amongst them is the question of the role of the banking sector and financial liberalisation in contributing to financial crises. How do weaknesses in the domestic banking sector, when combined with both domestic and international financial liberalisation, engender currency crises? What is lacking in the literature is a simple conceptual framework within which these connections can be conceptualised and drawn out and in which the role of banks is explicitly discussed. This paper seeks to provide just such a framework. Within it, international financial liberalisation can be seen as fuelling a boom in domestic credit, which leads to acute balance sheet problems for domestic banks, and exposes the country concerned to a currency crisis in the event of a sudden reversal of capital inflows, which banking weaknesses may itself trigger.     

Nationale Geldsch?pfung zersetzt den Euroraum

The Eurosystem has been operating in crisis mode for more than four years now. Massive quantitative and qualitative easing in its monetary policy stance are the visible marks of its response to the turbulence in the financial sector. This policy aims primarily at maintaining financial stability in the euro area by providing vast liquidity support to commercial banks that are operating in nationally segmented banking systems. The sovereign debt crises in some member countries further exacerbate the segmentation problem along country borders. As a side effect, cross-border capital flows are substituted by money market operations by the national central banks. The latter are engaging more and more often in substantial balance-of-payments financing, and financial risks are shifted from investors to European taxpayers via the Eurosystem. Symptomatically, this shows up in exploding TARGET2 positions in the national central banks’ balance sheets. The longer this process continues, the stronger the centrifugal forces become that ultimately might burst the single currency. A solution requires a euro area-wide regulatory approach for the financial sector. Next to a uniform scheme for banking regulation, supervision and resolution, we recommend the comprehensive introduction of contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) as a major refinancing source for the banking industry. As this proposal cannot be introduced overnight, national and European banking resolution funds are necessary in the short run. The latter do not rescue banks, but they kick in as soon as a bank’s equity is depleted in order to wind down failing banks in a systemically prudent way.     

系统性金融风险的度量及其时变经济效应研究

基于TVP-SV-SVAR模型，分析六个不同金融子市场风险对实体经济的实时冲击效应，结合时变脉冲响应方法构建了动态权重系统性金融风险综合指数，并区分高低风险状态探讨其对实体经济的影响。结果表明，银行部门、股票市场和外部金融市场对系统性金融风险的贡献较大；基于对实体经济冲击视角的动态权重系统性金融风险综合指数与样本期内实际金融经济事件的发展趋势一致；不同状态下系统性金融风险对经济增长的冲击效应不同：短期来看，高风险点系统性金融风险抑制经济增长，低风险点系统性金融风险促进经济增长；长期来看，系统性金融风险在高低状态下对经济增长均有负向冲击效应。研究结论对于防范和化解系统性金融风险的宏观审慎政策制定具有重要的参考意义。     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

Immediate responses to financial crises: A focus on US MNE subsidiaries

This paper provides evidence for the immediate or short-term responses to financial crises of US multinational firm (MNE) subsidiaries. Using a real options perspective, we hypothesize that financial crises change the relative value of ‘within-country’ versus ‘across-country’ options for MNE subsidiaries. We suggest that relocating subsidiary output is an effective short-term response to local financial crises. We examine the effects of 83 financial crises (banking, debt and currency crises) on longitudinal data of US MNEs’ subsidiary sales in over 50 countries in the period 1983–2005. Our results show market-switching effects. Particularly in the case of local currency crises we observe a refocus of the MNE's subsidiary local sales toward export markets. The effect is maintained in the occurrence of twin financial crises. These results confirm our expectation that financial crises cause an increase in the value of ‘across-country’ option relative to ‘within-country’ option.     

强化银行财务风险管理 构建微观审慎指标体系

与世界其他地区的金融危机相比 ,亚洲金融危机清楚地表明银行业稳健性的重要。银行业风险预警和内部治理的缺陷增大了银行机构对外部威胁的暴露程度 ,审慎性规则的不健全使银行承担了过度风险。从而 ,强化银行财务风险管理 ,建立微观审慎指标体系应成为银行业内部治理结构调整重点之一。     

中国影子银行的价值分析及金融监管对策

美国次贷危机引发国际金融危机后,引发了全球对影子银行的关注,中国也不例外。同时,影子银行的迅速发展改变了传统的货币政策传导机制,弱化了货币政策效应,亟需加强金融监管。本文从影子银行的规范分析出发,通过分析影子银行在中国的发展现状、规模、特征与价值分析,提出了加强影子银行监管的对策建议。     

对我国外债管理的分析及对策建议

从20世纪80年代拉丁美洲的债务危机,到1998年的亚洲金融风暴,可以看到在面对危机时,一个国家管理外债的水平和控制风险的能力,这在一定程度上决定了这个国家是否能顺利渡过困境。我国政府目前面对纷繁复杂的国际经济形势,大力加强国家外债管理,对我国经济建设将起着至关重要的作用。本文初步探讨了我国外债的现状,对外债管理做了一些粗浅的分析研究,目的在于政府合理利用外债,最大限度地控制风险,促进经济健康发展。