Equity Market Liberalization in Emerging Markets

Equity market liberalizations, if effective, lead to important changes in both the financial and real sectors as the economy becomes integrated into world capital markets. The study of market integration is complicated because one can liberalize in many ways and many countries have taken different routes. To study the effectiveness of particular liberalization policies, the sequencing of liberalizations, and the impact on the real economy, systematic methods must be developed to date the liberalization of emerging equity markets. We provide a synthesis of the current methods and show the impact of liberalization on the real sector.     

Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets

We propose a cross-sectional time-series model to assess the impact of market liberalizations in emerging equity markets on the cost of capital, volatility, beta, and correlation with world market returns. Liberalizations are defined by regulatory changes, the introduction of depositary receipts and country funds, and structural breaks in equity capital flows to the emerging markets. We control for other economic events that might confound the impact of foreign speculators on local equity markets. Across a range of specifications, the cost of capital always decreases after a capital market liberalization with the effect varying between 5 and 75 basis points.     

Downside Risk in Emerging Markets

This paper investigates the relation between downside risk and expected returns on the aggregate stock market in an international context. Nonparametric and parametric value at risk are used as measures of downside risk to determine the existence of a risk-return trade-off. For emerging markets, fixed effects panel data regressions provide evidence for a significantly positive relationship between monthly expected market returns and downside risk. This result is robust after controlling for aggregate dividend yield and price-to-fundamental ratios. The relationship between expected returns and downside risk is weaker for developed markets and vanishes when control variables are included in the specification.     

Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets

David L. Stulb, joint leader of Ernst ＆ Young＇s global Fraud Investigations ＆ Dispute Servicespractice, said,“Major fraud and corruption scandals attract headlines around the world, dramatically affecting corporate and market values. With the fear of fraud greatest in emerging markets, and with 20% of all companies having been victims of fraud, the consequences for those companies that continue to underestimate the risk could be severe.” at the launch of the 9th Global Fraud Survey, Fraud Risk in Emerging Markets.     

The Impact of the U.S. and the Japanese Equity Markets on the Emerging Asia-Pacific Equity Markets

Using a tri-variate vector autoregression model, we study the relationships between the four Asian emerging equity markets: Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and the two largest equity markets in the world: U.S. and Japan. We find that while most of the unexpected variations in stock returns in these Asian emerging markets is explained by domestic own shocks, the impacts from the U.S. and Japan are larger in Hong Kong and Singapore than in Korea and Taiwan. This foreign effect is pronounced after the Crash of the October 1987, especially in Singapore. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets

This article develops a return-based measure of market integrationfor nineteen emerging equity markets. It then examines the relationbetween that measure, other return characteristics, and broadlydefined investment barriers. Although the analysis is exploratory,some clear conclusions emerge. First, global factors accountfor a small fraction of the time variation in expected returnsin most markets, and global predictability has declined overtime Second, the emerging markets exhibit differing degreesof market integration with the U.S. market, and the differencesare not necessarily associated with direct barriers to investment.Third, the most important de facto barriers to global equity-marketintegration are poor credit ratings, high and variable inflation,exchange rate controls, the lack of a high-quality regulatoryand accounting framework, the lack of sufficient country fundsor cross-listed securities, and the limited size of some stockmarkets.     

The Evolution of Private Equity in Emerging Markets: The Case of Poland

In the last ten years, there has been a pronounced shift toward emerging markets in institutional investor allocations of capital to private equity. While the lion's share of the allocations to emerging markets have gone to the “BRIC” nations, lesser‐known markets like Poland are threatening to steal the spotlight. Economic stabilization, development of the private sector, a favorable business outlook, and continuous improvement of the local institutional infrastructure (laws, accounting rules, and fiscal regimes) have all contributed to the development of a vibrant private equity industry in Poland. Most private equity firms in Poland structure their deals around five broad investment themes: technology; media; and telecommunications; manufacturing; consumer services; business services; and financial services. Local private equity firms have traditionally adopted two different strategies towards these sectors. The first group of private equity firms initially targeted manufacturing, with the conviction that, as the Polish economy developed, the satisfaction of consumer needs for basic products would be the largest source of market demand. The second group assumed that the market would require access to more services to accommodate the growing local economy. Both approaches have proved reasonably successful, as the leaders among these two groups of firms have continued to succeed in raising new funds while achieving high returns for their limited partners. And while the accomplishments of the private equity industry have been made possible by the extent of Poland's transformation from a socialist into a market economy, the industry itself continues to play an important role in this transformation by providing both outside capital and know‐how for local firms and managers.     

U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets

This article examines U.S. equity flows to emerging stock marketsfrom 1978 to 1991 and draws three main conclusions. First, despitethe recent increase in U.S. equity investment in emerging stockmarkets, the U.S. portfolio remains strongly biased toward domesticequities. Second, of the fraction of the U.S. portfolio thatis allocated to foreign equity investment, the share investedin emerging stock markets is roughly proportional to the shareof the emerging stock markets in the global market capitalizationvalue. Third, the volatility of U.S. transactions in emerging-marketequities is higher than in other foreign equities. The normalizedvolatility of U.S. transactions appears to be falling over time,however, and we find no relation between the volume of U.S.transactions in foreign equity and local turnover rates or volatilityof stock returns.     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets

We use the multiple variance-ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) to examine the stochastic properties of local currency- and US dollar-based equity returns in 15 emerging capital markets. The technique is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution and provides a multiple statistical comparison of variance-ratios, with control of the joint-test's size. We find that the random walk model is consistent with the dynamics of returns in most of the emerging markets analyzed, which contrasts many random walk test results documented with the use of single variance-ratio techniques. Further, a runs test suggests that most of the emerging markets are weak-form efficient. Overall, our results suggest that investors are unlikely to make systematic nonzero profit by using past information in many of the examined markets, thus, investors should predicate their investment strategies on the assumption of random walks. Additionally, our results suggest exchange rate matters in returns' dynamics determination for some of the emerging equity markets we analyzed.     

Accounting for Sovereign Risk When Investing in Emerging Markets

In theory, political risk is project‐specific and should be accounted for in the estimation of the expected investment cash flows. But in practice, the political risk associated with this type of investment is typically accounted for implicitly by adjusting the investment's required rate of return or the discount rate. As the authors discuss in the article, this approach disguises the specific assumptions being made about the risk of expropriation and so makes it difficult to assess this risk properly. While defending some aspects of current practice, the authors argue that corporate executives should consider some changes. For example, although a project analysis that is shared with the host government could incorporate a risk adjustment to the discount rate, the authors suggest that more explicit analysis of the anticipated risk of expropriation should be incorporated into the analysis of expected project cash flows. This analysis could involve making specific assumptions about the “term structure” of expropriation risk over the life of the investment. Finally, the authors note that the political risk of making investments in emerging economies can be managed to some extent. Investments can be structured in ways that reduce political risk by structuring project cash flows in ways that better align the incentives of the project sponsor and the government of the host country.     

论新兴市场的潜在威胁(英文)

随着全球经济的发展,越来越多的跨国公司开始步入新兴市场。然而,事实上,大多数公司都没有取得他们理想中的成功。相反,在新兴市场中,他们将面临着更复杂的问题和风险。本文旨在分析新兴市场中存在的潜在威胁。     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

Forms of Foreign Investment Liberalization and Risk in Emerging Stock Markets

I examine the effect of different forms of foreign investment liberalization on risk in emerging equity markets, including international cross-listings and closed-end country funds, and in the domestic equity market as foreign investment restrictions are eliminated. I find that in Latin American markets volatility declines significantly with different forms of foreign investment liberalization, and in Asian markets volatility does not increase significantly. Volatility is driven by domestic factors in South America, but the transmission of volatility from the United States to Mexico increases after liberalization. The market risk exposure increases in Argentina after liberalization, in Chile with an index of American Depositary Receipts, and in Thailand with greater foreign ownership, reducing the diversification benefits of these markets.     

Estimating Oil Risk Factors Using Information from Equity and Derivatives Markets

We introduce a novel approach to estimating latent oil risk factors and establish their significance in pricing nonoil securities. Our model, which features four factors with simple economic interpretations, is estimated using both derivative prices and oil‐related equity returns. The fit is excellent in and out of sample. The extracted oil factors carry significant risk premia, and are significantly related to macroeconomic variables as well as portfolio returns sorted on characteristics and industry. The average nonoil portfolio exhibits a sensitivity to the oil factors amounting to a sixth (in magnitude) of that of the oil industry itself.     

The Rule 415 Experiment: Equity Markets

Rule 415 allows a firm to register all the securities it reasonably expects to sell over the next two years and then, at the management's option, to sell those securities over these two years whenever it chooses. This paper examines whether equity offerings made under Rule 415 (shelf offerings) differ in issuing costs from equity offerings not sold under this rule. We find that shelf offerings cost 13% less for syndicated issues and 51% less for nonsyndicated issues. We also investigate the empirical relevance of the market overhang argument which suggests that shelf registrations depress the price of the registering firm's shares more than traditional registrations. Our data does not support the market overhang argument.     

An Empirical Examination of the Dissemination of Equity Price Innovations Between the Emerging Markets of Nordic-Baltic States and Major Advanced Markets

: We employ three econometric models to examine the relative influence of the stock markets of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany on the stock markets of the Nordic-Baltic states. The results show that the Nordic-Baltic markets respond to price innovations from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in diverse ways in the period 2001–2013. Response patterns for Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Denmark are more significant to market innovations from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, and less significant to those from Germany. German influence is more significant over Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia than the rest of the advanced markets. While the dynamics of the Nordic-Baltic markets exhibit a dominance of own price innovation, the influence of the United States is stronger than that of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany. These results imply that investors from the Nordic States may derive greater benefits by diversifying into Germany and vice versa, rather than diversifying into the United States, the United Kingdom, or France. Investors from the Baltic States may obtain greater advantages by adopting portfolio strategies that take advantage of potentially better diversification benefits obtainable from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France rather than from Germany, and the reverse will also be in order.     

新兴金融市场的发展

大量新兴国家所采取的积极的债务管理措施使得本国资产负债表的波动性显著降低,节约了为数可观的债务成本。本文引用两个典型例子:巴西采取减少其与美元相关的负债的政策,使得这部分负债的规模从2002年底占净负债总额的30％下降到2004年7月的15％。墨西哥实施富有创意的全球债券债务交换的方案,以期利用全球债券收益率曲线的特性来节约债务成本。     

The Equity Performance of Firms Emerging from Bankruptcy

This study assesses the stock return performance of 131 firms emerging from Chapter 11. Using differing estimates of expected returns, we consistently find evidence of large, positive excess returns in 200 days of returns following emergence. We also examine the reaction of our sample firms' equity returns to their earnings announcements after emergence from Chapter 11. The positive and significant reactions suggest that our results are driven by the market's expectational errors, not mismeasurement of risk. The results provide an interesting contrast, but not a contradiction, to previous work that has documented poor operating performance for firms emerging from Chapter 11.