静观美联储降息

2007年9月18日,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率调低50个基点,从5.25%降低到4.75%。这是2003年6月以来美联储首次调低联邦基金利率。然而,令人吃惊的还不只这些,2007年10     

上海浙江：美联储降息反映快速调查

美国联邦储备委员会9月18日决定将联邦基金利率即商业银行间隔夜拆借利率由原来的5.25%降为4.75%,以应对目前的次贷危机,这是美朕储自2003年6月以来的首次降息。为了解美联储利率下调对相关外汇业务的影响,外汇局上海分局浙江分局及时开展了快速调查。美联储降息的市场反映一是境内美元小额存款利率不变,银行贷款利率随LIBOR利率走低,境内     

美联储降息到头了吗？

2008年5月5日，美国“股神”巴菲特表示，目前美国减息步伐应该暂时告一段落，如果利率过低，那么美国经济将出现问题，所以他本人认为美联储现在应停止减息。     

美联储降息的多米诺效应

次贷危机的阴影也许已经渐渐远离我们，但是，在“后次贷危机”时代，一个已经淡忘多年的经济学里的术语——降息，频繁地出现在人们的视野里。从2007年9月到今年3月，美联储的降息举措已经达到6次之多，联邦基金利率由原来的5．25％下降到最近的2．25％，下调幅度达到了57％。同时美联储也多次降低了贴现率，贴现率由原来的5．75％降到最近的2．5％。其频繁程度可见一斑。     

解读美联储降息声明

为化解次级债危机引发的经济衰退风险,10月31日美联储决定再度降息25个基点,联邦基金利率(即商业银行间隔夜拆借利率)由4.75%降至4.50%.     

近期美联储加息对中国经济的影响研究

近期,美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点到0.5%至0.75%的水平,并释放出明年可能加快加息步伐的政策信号。鉴于美联储加息的政策信号和步调节奏具有重大外部影响,在世界经济复苏不稳的大背景下,本文主要研究此次美联储加息对中国经济的影响以及我们相应的应对措施。     

美联储超预期降息的前因后果

<正>疫情冲击下,量化宽松等非常规货币政策确实可以缓解流动性风险,但是刺激经济的效果可能没那么好应对疫情冲击,美联储超预期降息3月3日,美联储将联邦基金目标利率下调50个基点,至1%～1.25%。这有两点超预期。一是降息时间超预期。一般情况下,美联储调整利率是在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)议息会议期间,今年3月的议息会议时间是3月17日至3月18日,虽然市场预期3月会降息,但没有预期到美联储会提前降息。这在历史上比较少见,近三十年只有9次,此前最近一次     

美联储接连降息:这剂“抗疫药”是否有效?

北京时间3月16日,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调100个基点至0%-0.25%的超低水平,并启动7000亿美元量化宽松(QE)计划,以保护经济免受病毒影响。这是美联储继3月3日降息50个基点后,第二次宣布紧急降息,降息幅度和频度可谓罕见。那么,美联储为何屡屡超预期降息?"尽显诚意"的降息"抗疫药"疗效到底如何?     

美联储何时会停止加息

2004年6月美联储第一次加息之后，笔在《中国外汇管理》上发表的评述章曾提出，“这标志着以后我们可以会进入一个利率逐渐攀升的新时期。”此后一年多来，美国连续13次加息，联邦基金利率已从近六十年的最低位1％上调至4.25％。     

美联储宣布加息25个基点

北京时间2016年12月17日凌晨,美联储正式宣布加息25个基点,联邦基金利率从0.25%-0.5%调升.5%-0.75%,这是自2006年6月以来美联储的第一次加息.这意味着美国将进入加息周期,美联储宣称2017年可能加息3次.美联储的加息,对世界的经济金融将带来较大的影响.     

Trusting the Stock Market

We study the effect that a general lack of trust can have on stock market participation. In deciding whether to buy stocks, investors factor in the risk of being cheated. The perception of this risk is a function of the objective characteristics of the stocks and the subjective characteristics of the investor. Less trusting individuals are less likely to buy stock and, conditional on buying stock, they will buy less. In Dutch and Italian micro data, as well as in cross‐country data, we find evidence consistent with lack of trust being an important factor in explaining the limited participation puzzle.     

中国为什么没有金融中心?

从一般意义上讲,目前的中国似乎并不缺少金融中心,北京、上海、广州、西安,这一系列城市和一系列定位的金融中心紧紧的联系在一起。然而,目前中国出现的所谓的金融中心是否是真正意义上的金融中心,抑或怎样才能称的上是金融中心?中国金融先锋人物、中信集团董事蔡重直先生在本刊与国务院发展研究中心金融研究所、大连市政府、东北财经大学联合举办的“振兴东北”金融高层论坛上为我们做出了精辟的解释,编者特将蔡先生的言论整理如下。在这篇文章中作者深邃的目光深入到了到了一个常人从未涉足过的层面,这就是:我们在“管理哲学”上存在着一直未能真正触及的问题。这也是我们向所有业界人士推荐此文的主要用意。     

对邮政储蓄银行立足农村市场的研究

在商业银行为了经济效益纷纷退出农村金融市场的今天,邮政储蓄利用在国内网点数量最多、在农村分布最广的有利因素,植根于农村金融市场,积极拓展邮政在农村的金融服务功能,确保邮政金融在农村的竞争优势。     

这家机械厂为什么没有了诉讼权

基本案情 2002年元月7日-9日，某市国税稽查局在对本市宇通机械厂进行稽查时，发现该厂2001年度销售产品时，收取的价外费用140.40万元未并入产品销售收入申报缴纳增值税。遂于元月14日向该厂下达了补缴增值税20.40万元的《税务处理决定书》。该厂不服，于元月17日向市国税局提出复议……     

Why Are Mothers Working Longer Hours in Austria than in Germany? A Comparative Microsimulation Analysis*

Labour force participation rates of mothers in Austria and Germany are similar; however, full‐time employment rates are much higher among Austrian mothers. In order to find out to what extent these differences can be attributed to differences in the tax‐transfer system, we perform a comparative microsimulation exercise. After estimating structural labour supply models for both countries, we interchange two important institutional characteristics of the two countries ‐ namely, (i) the definition of the tax unit within the personal income tax and (ii) the parental leave benefit scheme. As our analysis shows, differences in mothers’employment patterns can partly be explained by the different tax systems: while Germany has a system of joint taxation with income splitting for married couples, Austria taxes everyone individually, which leads to lower marginal tax rates for secondary earners than in the German system.     

Property Rights and Urban Development: Initial Title Quality Matters Even When it No Longer Matters

Formal title to property allows owners to borrow for investing in improvements. Title legalization laws, however, appear to yield only modest increases in housing quality in developing countries. We offer a simple model in which squatters initially balance initial investment in low quality structures to reduce the risk of eviction against the future effect of increasing the marginal cost of improving quality. The effort to secure initial possession thereby creates a legacy effect, reducing subsequent investments in housing quality. Empirical tests using Bolivian data yield results consistent with the legacy theory: initial title risk suppresses long run housing quality.     

Why Do Firms Use Incentives That Have No Incentive Effects?

This paper illustrates why firms might choose to implement stock option plans or other pay instruments that reward “luck.” I consider a model where adjusting compensation contracts is costly and where employees' outside opportunities are correlated with their firms' performance. The model may help to explain the use and recent rise of broad‐based stock option plans, as well as other financial instruments, even when these pay plans have no effect on employees' on‐the‐job behavior. The model suggests that agency theory's often‐overlooked participation constraint may be an important determinant of some common compensation schemes, particularly for employees below the highest executive ranks.     

Formal Water Markets: Why, When, and How to Introduce Tradable Water Rights

In most countries the state owns the water resources and thehydraulic infrastructure, and public officials decide who getsthe water, how it is to be used, and how much will be chargedfor it. But costly inefficiencies in the supply and use of watersupport a shift from government provision to a market-basedapproach that is more effective and less wasteful. Markets can allow rapid changes in allocation in response tochanging demands for water and can stimulate investment andemployment as investors are assured of access to secure suppliesof water. Because of water's unique characteristics, such marketsdo not work everywhere; nor do they resolve all water-relatedissues. By designing appropriate water laws and regulationsand by strengthening private and public institutions to administerthem, formal water markets can effectively address rising demandsfor groundwater and for water found in rivers, lakes, and canals.Lessons from Chile's experience demonstrate that formal watermarkets can improve the economic efficiency of water use andstimulate investment.      

Politics and the Fed

In the standard policy model, a policymaker optimizes the welfare of a representative agent. In practice, policies are chosen in a political process by agents elected by voters. Drawing on evidence from my two-volume history of the Federal Reserve, the paper reports many examples of decisions influenced by political pressures. The history shows that the meaning of the independence of the Federal Reserve changed over time reflecting political influences.