Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Stock Price Response to Earnings Announcements: Evidence From the Nigerian Stock Market

The author examines the stock market reaction to annual earnings information releases using data for a sample of firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Using the event study method, the author found that the magnitude of the cumulative abnormal returns is dominated by significant reactions 20 days before the earnings release date, which suggests that a portion of the market reaction may be due to private acquisition and, possibly, abuse of information by insiders. The persistent downward drift of the cumulative abnormal returns, 20 days after the announcement, is inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis.     

基于ECM对股票市场与货币供给量之间关系的研究

我国宏观经济的波动会影响股票市场的波动,货币供给量是宏观经济中影响股票市场波动的一个重要变量。通过对上证综合指数与货币供应量之间关系的研究,证明上证综合指数与宏观经济货币供应量之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。同时,误差修正模型可以看出,上证综合指数不仅受到货币供应量的影响,还受到前一期市场自身因素的影响,即因变量本身滞后性的影响。     

证券交易税对市场波动性的影响:来自中国股市的证据

本文运用ARCH族模型检验了2001年股票交易印花税税率降低对沪、深股市波动性的影响,为有关证券交易税对市场波动性影响的讨论增添了一个来自新兴市场的证据。计量结果表明,该次税率变动对沪市波动性的影响在统计上是不显著的;深市的波动性在税率降低后虽然有统计上显著的增加,但是这个变化太小,没有实际意义。我们的研究结果表明,对于像中国股市这类市场结构和市场制度处于变化之中的新兴市场,如果试图通过调整证券交易税税率这类显性的交易成本来影响市场波动性,其效果是有限的。     

When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests

Using Federal Reserve bank stress test announcements, we examine when option traders acquire informational advantage and when they exploit it. We find consistent evidence of informed options trading around announcements. However, when test results are announced in successive weeks we find high abnormal option volume, considerably positive abnormal returns and significant return predictability in the first week, but not the following week. This suggests that informed option traders are able to anticipate upcoming news events and skillfully process public information but it also suggests that trading on acquired information is conditioned on the level of information asymmetry in the market.     

机构投资者的交易行为研究:来自中国台湾股市的证据

文章以中国台湾股市为研究对象,主要研究机构投资者的交易行为。文章构建了机构投资者交易不平衡性指标——净交易,在此基础上研究机构投资者的交易行为。研究结果表明:台湾股票市场中以外资和投信基金为代表的金融机构投资者表现为正反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量较高;一般法人的交易表现为负反馈的交易策略,并且交易的信息含量不足;而自营商由于交易动机复杂,交易的信息含量不明确。可见不同的机构投资者的交易行为并不相同。     

Price and its Relation to Objective and Subjective Product Quality: Evidence from the Austrian Market

The correlation between price and product quality is usually found to be low, but still, consumers use a rule of thumb that higher prices indicate higher quality. In the present study, data from the Austrian consumer magazine Konsument from 2004 to 2007 were analysed, and price–quality correlations were computed. Results confirm former studies as the overall price–quality relation was positive and statistically significant but small (r = .30). It was especially small in the food and beverages sector as well as for cosmetics and for inexpensive products generally. Consumers' subjective beliefs about a price–quality link and product complexity were also analysed. Results show that consumers believe that a high price signals high quality, but that these beliefs are not well calibrated, i.e., not corresponding to the product categories where actually higher price–quality correlations can be found. In sum, the results confirm for the Austrian market that price is a poor signal of quality, and that consumers are hardly aware of the particular product sectors where this signal is more valid.     

环境信息披露质量与银行信贷决策--来自我国沪深两市A股重污染行业上市公司经验证据

本文以沪深两市A股重污染行业2012－2013年上市公司为样本，实证考察我国重污染行业上市公司环境信息披露质量与银行信贷决策两者之间的相互关系。研究发现：重污染行业上市公司环境信息披露质量越高，可获得的银行借款越多。进一步研究发现，环境信息披露质量对重污染行业上市公司短期银行借款的影响更为显著，对长期银行借款的影响则较弱。研究证实，重污染行业上市公司提高环境信息披露质量有助于企业获取更多的银行借款，尤其是短期银行借款。     

中央银行沟通对金融资产价格的影响——以股票市场为例

本文运用经典的宏观经济模型,发现中央银行沟通可以降低股票价格的波动,有利于金融资产价格的稳定.本文利用2003年1月至2012年12月的月度数据,运用SVAR模型研究中央银行沟通对股票市场的影响,以此判断中央银行沟通能否有利于金融资产价格的稳定.研究结果表明:中央银行沟通对股票市场产生一定的影响,但是效果并不明显.相对书面沟通,口头沟通对股票市场产生的影响效应更大一些.实际干预变量对股票市场的影响有限.为了能够更好地发挥中央银行沟通在货币政策操作中的作用,本文建议从提高中央银行沟通信息的准确性、提高货币政策决策的透明度和提高公众的金融素养等方面加强中央银行沟通行为.     

Asymmetric Post-Announcement Drift to Good and Bad News: Evidence from Voluntary Trading Disclosures in the Chinese Stock Market

This article investigates the post-announcement drift (PAD) of stock returns in the Chinese stock market. We use a sample of voluntary trading disclosures to test the hypothesis that an asymmetric PAD exists in a market in which managers are more likely to suppress negative news. We show that a pattern of short-term momentum and long-term reversal in returns persists for up to 250 trading days following the announcement of trading statements in the Chinese stock market. This finding is stronger for positive announcements in terms of the magnitude and the variance of stock returns. Our findings are in line with both Shin’s theoretical predictions and the credibility hypothesis, in which disclosure and asset returns are jointly determined and the adoption of a “sanitisation strategy” in information disclosure generates more volatile returns for firms issuing good news. Further, we show that the latter effect is more pronounced for firms which are partially state-owned, suggesting that they potentially receive more government support, a finding which is in line with the hypothesis that the incentive to suppress negative information is related to a country’s legal/judicial system.     

Corporate Governance,Commitment to Business Ethics,and Firm Valuation: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

A variety of stakeholders have long been interested in the factors that are related to firm valuation. This article investigates why companies with more comprehensive corporate governance (CG) have a value premium over companies with less comprehensive CG. We posit and find that the cost of equity capital (COC) decreases with the strength of CG, suggesting that the value premium stems from the lower COC for more comprehensive CG. We also find that the COC is lower for companies with strong commitment to business ethics (BE) than for those with weak commitment to BE and that the beneficial effect of CG on the COC is more pronounced for companies with weak commitment to BE than for those with strong commitment to BE. Companies with more comprehensive CG tend to exhibit strong commitment to BE, but the beneficial effect of corporate ethical commitment is not completely subsumed by CG. Our results suggest that companies could lower their cost of equity capital and increase firm value by adopting more comprehensive CG practices and committing to higher standards of BE.     

Margin Requirements in the Security Market and Public Policy

The paper examines the problem of losses beyond margin in the stock market and Us probable solution assuming that the present regime of margin regulations continues. In Canada, the severity of losses in the stock market has been enhanced by inadequate legislation in the margin-related area, ambiguous rules and regulations of the stock exchanges in this regard, and conflicting court decisions in establishing liabilities for losses due to violations of margin regulations. This paper will focus on the nature of the problems in the above three areas and suggest measures, largely legislative in nature, to reduce the losses incurred by the public through trading in margin accounts. The analysis of losses in margin accounts is supported by two court cases arising out of the 1980–82 recession and high interest rates during this period. Résumé Cette étude examine le problème des pertes boursières engagées au-delà de la marge et sa solution probable en supposant que le présent régime de réglementation des marges se poursuive. Au Canada, l'importance des pertes boursières est accentuée par une législation relative aux marges inadéquate, une réglementation boursière ambiguë et des décisions judiciaires contradictoires quant à la responsabilité des pertes causées par des transgressions des règles sur les marges. La présente étude vise à éclaircir la nature des problèmes dans les trois secteurs précédement mentionnés et à suggérer des mesures de nature principalement législative afin de réduire les penes engagées par le public dans les comptes de marge. L'analyse de ces pertes est appuyée ici par deux causes judiciaires survenues pendant la période de la récession en 1980–82 et caractérisée par taux d'intérět élevés.     

股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率:基于股市信息效率视角的研究

中国股票市场发展已经经历20年的历程,很多方面都取得了巨大的发展成就,然而对于股票市场发展对中国经济增长是否产生了显著的正向促进作用,现有研究文献并没有达到一致结论.文章基于股价波动非同步性测度方法,从股票市场信息效率这一新的视角入手,实证检验股票市场发展与国家资源配置效率的因果影响关系,为这一领域研究提供了新的实证证据.实证结果表明:中国股票市场信息效率与国家资源配置效率显著正相关,且这种正相关关系在效益上升行业与下降行业没有显著差别,即高信息效率股票市场能引导社会在高资本回报率的行业内继续追加投资,在低资本回报率的行业内及时削减资本投入,从而提高资源配置效率.因此中国股票市场发展具有较好的经济效应,它对经济增长产生了显著正向促进作用.     

International Stock Market Linkages and Spillovers: Evidence from Three Latin American Countries

ABSTRACT

Using a multivariate exponential generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (M-EGARCH) model, this study examines price and volatility spillovers and response asymmetries between the equity markets of the United States and Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our results vary depending on the openness of the country in terms of international trade. Evidence indicates that there are price and volatility spillovers from the United States to Mexico and Chile and but not to Brazil. In addition, our results indicate response asymmetries for Mexico and Chile, suggesting that the Mexican and Chilean markets are more sensitive to negative innovations originating from other markets than to positive innovations.

RESUMEN. Este estudio examina contagios de precio y volatilidad, y respuestas asimétricas entre los mercados de capital de Estados Unidos y Brasil, Chile y México, fundándose en un modelo exponencial generalizado multivariado, con un condicionante autoregresivo heteroscedástico (M-EGARCH). Los resultados obtenidos varían, dependiente del nivel de apertura de un país en lo que concierne al comercio internacional. Las pruebas indican que existen contagios de precio y volatilidades desde los Estados Unidos hacia México y Chile, pero no hacia Brasil. Además, los resultados también indican asimetrías de respuesta para México y Chile, sugiriendo que estos dos mercados son más sensibles a las innovaciones negativas que se originan en otros mercados, que a las innovaciones positivas.

RESUMO. Usando um modelo condicionalmente heterocedástico, autoregressivo, generalizado, exponencial e multivariado (M-EGARCH), este estudo examina contágios de preços e volatilidade, e assimetrias de resposta entre mercados de ações dos EUA e Brasil, Chile e México. Nossos resultados variam, dependendo da abertura do país em termos de comércio internacional. Os dados indicam que existem contágiosde preço e volatilidade dos EUA para o México e Chile, mas não para o Brasil. Além disso, nossos resultados indicam assimetrias de resposta para o México e Chile, sugerindo que estes mercados são mais sensíveis a inovações negativas originárias de outros mercados do que a inovações positivas.     

Keynote Speech: Federal Reserve Policy in the Post-Crisis Period

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) engaged in a series of extraordinary monetary policy actions in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 to support economic activity in the United States. Interest rates were lowered to their effective lower bound and the Fed’s balance sheet was greatly expanded through a series of large-scale asset purchase programs. As the U.S. economy has recovered, “normalization” of monetary policy (which will be data-dependent) has drawn closer. This article reviews some factors that may impact the post-normalization course of monetary policy.     

展现证券市场制度全貌 揭示证券市场发展规律——《证券市场制度比较与趋势研究》评介

经过数年的酝酿、筹划与艰苦写作,由河北大学康书生教授主持编著的《证券市场制度比较与趋势研究》一书,终于2008年5月面世(商务印书馆出版)。该书作为一部展现证券市场制度变迁、揭示证券市场运作规律、剖析证券市场发展趋势的学术著作,以系统、完整的制度比较研究体系,开拓了证券市场     

Long Yongtu on China's Service Market Opening Further to the World

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Mitchel Y. Abolafia: Stewards of the Market: How the Federal Reserve Made Sense of the Financial Crisis

Business Economics -