正规金融与非正规金融:机制、效率与实证挑战

正规金融与非正规金融的定位和关系,不仅是重要的学术问题,也是影响间接金融体系改革方向的关键。本文从机制视角建立学理框架,从信息和履约两个基础维度,讨论正规金融与非正规金融的相对效率及决定因素,并通过系统梳理相关文献,指出现有实证研究的成果与挑战;进而结合中国特征,讨论如何提高正规金融与非正规金融的效率,最后提出未来研究方向。本文认为,正规金融与非正规金融因信息和履约机制不同而各有其独立存在价值,其相对效率取决于不同经济发展阶段的社会网络基础和征信、法律体系,现有实证文献对两者作用的分歧主要源于分类、样本局限和内生性处理。本文从机制视角进行分析,体现了正规金融和非正规金融的金融属性,为探索相关领域学术研究和政策制定提供启示。     

Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors

We propose several econometric measures of connectedness based on principal-components analysis and Granger-causality networks, and apply them to the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, broker/dealers, and insurance companies. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, likely increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries through a complex and time-varying network of relationships. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power in out-of-sample tests. Our results show an asymmetry in the degree of connectedness among the four sectors, with banks playing a much more important role in transmitting shocks than other financial institutions.     

Social capital and access to informal finance – evidence from Chinese private firms

This study investigates how firms’ social capital affects their access to informal finance. We argue that social capital helps reduce information asymmetry, increase trust between related parties and enforce lending contracts, so it has positive effects on firms’ access to informal finance. Using novel survey data of Chinese private firms, we find that firms with more social capital have more access to informal finance with lower costs. Further tests show that the effect of social capital is more significant when firms are located in regions with less developed market and lower community’s social capital and during the 2008 financial crisis.     

中国农村二元金融发展对农民收入影响的再考察——基于正规金融与非正规金融视角

基于正规金融与非正规金融视角,运用空间计量方法对2003-2010年中国31个省市农村二元分层金融发展的农民收入效应进行再考察。研究结果显示：农民收入、正规与非正规金融均存在显著的空间自相关性。正规与非正规金融的发展均有利于农民收入的增加,但是正规金融的影响效果不如非正规金融明显;农民收入、正规与非正规金融的空间变量对促进农民增收具有显著影响。     

Are family and friends the wrong investors? Evidence from U.S. start-ups

This paper investigates the effects of funding from family and friends (i.e., informal funding) on subsequent access to venture capital for start-up firms. We retrieve information on financing activity of young U.S. firms from a novel dataset based on private placements filings (Form Ds). To address potential endogeneity issues, we use an instrument that hinges on the family size of founders as an exogenous constraint on the supply of informal funds. Our results show that informal finance significantly reduces the probability of future financing events. We provide suggestive evidence that this is due to conflicts of interests between informal stakeholders and professional investors.     

Does access to external finance improve productivity? Evidence from a natural experiment

We study the relation between access to finance and productivity. Our contribution to the literature is a clean identification of a causal effect of access to finance on productivity. Specifically, we exploit an exogenous shift in demand for a product to expose how producers adapt their productivity in the presence of varying levels of access to finance. We use a triple differences testing approach and find that production increases the most over the sample period in areas with relatively strong access to finance, even in comparison with a control group. This result is statistically significant and robust to a variety of controls, alternative variables, and tests. The causal effect of access to finance on productivity that we find speaks to the larger role of finance in economic growth.     

Financing patterns around the world: Are small firms different?

Using a firm-level survey database covering 48 countries, we investigate how financial and institutional development affects financing of large and small firms. Our database is not limited to large firms but includes small and medium-size firms and data on a broad spectrum of financing sources, including leasing, supplier, development, and informal finance. Small firms and firms in countries with poor institutions use less external finance, especially bank finance. Protection of property rights increases external financing of small firms significantly more than of large firms, mainly due to its effect on bank finance. Small firms do not use disproportionately more leasing or trade finance compared with larger firms, so these financing sources do not compensate for lower access to bank financing of small firms. We also find that larger firms more easily expand external financing when they are constrained than small firms. Finally, we find suggestive evidence that the pecking order holds across countries.     

正规金融、非正规金融与农户生产经营风险——基于CHFS数据的实证研究

基于CHFS 2015年数据,运用Logit模型剖析农户参与正规金融和非正规金融的影响因素,采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）系统分析正规金融、非正规金融对农户生产经营风险的化解效应。结果显示：农户的性别、年龄、受教育程度、婚姻状况、健康状况、家庭人口规模、家庭人均收入等因素显著影响农户参与金融借贷;正规金融能够显著化解农户生产经营风险,且对35岁以上的农户、非贫困户、高收入家庭、西部地区农户等群体所起的作用更为显著;非正规金融在农户生产经营风险化解中发挥的作用有限。正规金融能够通过促进农户创业来化解农户生产经营风险。     

农村非正规金融组织演变、规模与政策选择

农村非正规金融事实上一直在中国农村金融市场中扮演着特殊角色,本文对国内非正规金融与民间金融两种概念进行了必要区分,并指出农村非正规金融组织演变进程是由原先的社会属性向经济属性、关系型信用向准契约型信用转变的过程.中国农村非正规金融的最终演变方向与政府政策选择有着密切联系,政府应该有效地整合农村非正规金融资源,将其纳入到正式制度的调节范围,使其最终成为中国农村金融体系中的重要组成部分.     

Homeownership,informality and the transmission of monetary policy

Cross-country aggregate data exhibits a strong (positive) relationship between the size of the informal employment and aggregate homeownership rates. We investigate this empirical observation using a cash-in-advance model with housing markets and argue that the rate of inflation is important in explaining the nexus between informality and homeownership rates. Specifically, we uncover a novel monetary transmission mechanism and show that households with informal employment desire to economize on their short-term cash usage and avoid periodic rental payments when (i) informality is associated with constrained business investment finance, and (ii) inflation expectations are high. Our empirical and theoretical findings highlight an important interaction between the conduct of monetary policy and the performance of housing markets.     

Broker recommendations and Australian small‐cap equity fund management

This study examines whether the abnormal performance of active Australian small‐cap equity fund managers is associated with broker recommendations. Our evidence supports the investment value of broker recommendations, showing significant abnormal returns (ARs) both pre‐ and post‐broker recommendations. We find that when a factor‐mimicking portfolio based on broker recommendations is added to a Carhart (1997) model, annual alphas are reduced by 48 basis points. Using transaction‐level data, buy trades following broker recommendations earn significant cumulative ARs of 1.56 per cent after 60 days. Overall, we find that broker recommendations account for an economically significant component of alphas.     

Informal or formal financing? Evidence on the co-funding of Chinese firms

Different modes of external finance provide heterogeneous benefits for the borrowing firms. Informal finance offers informational advantages whereas formal finance is scalable. Using unique survey data from China, we find that informal finance is associated with higher sales growth for small firms but lower sales growth for large firms. We identify a complementary effect between informal and formal finance for the sales growth of small firms, but not for large firms. Co-funding, thereby simultaneously using the informational advantage of informal finance and the scalability of formal finance, is therefore the optimal choice for small firms.     

浅析民间金融在我国经济发展中的作用

近年来民间金融规模的不断扩大,引起了各界的广泛关注。在这样的背景下研究民间金融在经济发展中的作用有着重要意义。本文尝试从民间金融对经济的正面作用和负面作用两个角度进行分析,具体分析了民间金融对金融体制改革、农村金融、中小企业融资、强化企业信用和国家宏观金融调控活动的影响,并提出相应对策。     

Is there an employee-based gender gap in informal financial markets? International evidence

We study the impact of female production workers on firms' access to trade credits across the world. Using two sources of plausibly exogenous variations in gender bias and a difference-in-differences framework, we document that firms with more female production workers have less access to trade credits in countries with stronger gender beliefs that favor males. This relationship is largely driven by firms in industries with unexpected credit shortages and industries dominated by males. Since female firms rely more on informal finance, this study is relevant for policies that direct female firms towards formal credit markets in highly gender-biased places.     

The Role of Agents and Brokers in the Market for Health Insurance

Health insurance markets in the United States are characterized by imperfect information, complex products, and substantial search frictions. Insurance agents and brokers play a significant role in helping employers navigate these problems. However, little is known about the relations between the structure of the agent/broker market and access and affordability of insurance. This article aims to fill this gap by investigating the influence of agents/brokers on health insurance offering decisions of small firms, which are particularly vulnerable to problems of financing health insurance. Using a unique membership database from the National Association of Health Underwriters together with a nationally representative survey of employers, we find that small firms in more competitive agent/broker markets are more likely to offer health insurance and at lower premiums. Moreover, premiums are less dispersed in more competitive agent/broker markets.     

金融中介、非正规金融与现金价值

金融体制改革相对滞后,影响了商业银行利用金融资源的效率,致使投放到企业中的资金使用效率低下。除正式的金融制度安排外,非正规金融形式也是重要的融资形式。以我国上市公司1999-2005年的数据为样本,本文研究了以银行贷款为主的金融资源和以商业信用为主的非正规金融资源之间的资金效率问题。结果发现,对于难以获得银行贷款的企业,的确通过商业信用来缓解融资约束,两种融资渠道存在替代性关系;以商业银行为主的金融中介的资金效率低于以商业信用为代表的非正规金融的资金效率。     

Can government intervention be both a curse and a blessing? Evidence from China's finance sector

Earlier work views government intervention as a “grabbing hand,” whereas more recent studies report that it acts as a “helping hand.” Can government intervention be both a curse and a blessing? This paper investigates this issue by investigating the impact of government intervention on firm financing and financial corruption in China, using the 2005 World Bank Investment Climate survey data. To do so, we first use instrumental variable estimations to confirm that government intervention promotes financial access and encourage corruption. Next, we adopt a mediator model to document that government intervention promotes firms' access to finance through informal payment. The mediation effect is significant for split samples that capture different type of political and economic climate. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

The importance of informal professional networks in developing a proactive organizational culture: a public value perspective

Public value theory was used by the authors to investigate informal professional networks, perceived discretionary power, and the organizational culture that forms in physical asset management organizations. The results, from a structural equation model, indicated that informal professional networks are positively associated with higher discretionary power and a proactive asset maintenance organizational culture. In the absence of public managers promoting public value, professionals use their informal networks as a source of power to be proactive and contribute to asset reliability and public safety (public value).     

我国民间金融发展中存在的问题及对策建议

民间金融是指个人、家庭、企业之间通过绕开官方正式的金融体系而直接进行的、尚未纳入政府监管范围的、未取得合法地位的金融交易活动。民间金融在支持民营经济发展,促进农村经济发展中发挥了积极作用,但在其发展过程中还存在着一些问题。本文分析了我国民间金融存在的问题,并提出了对策建议。     

城市群政策能否促进区域金融协调发展?——基于方言视角下的实证检验

基于中国区域金融高质量发展的现实要求,本文试图解释城市群政策对金融协调发展的影响,并深入探究其中的机制路径。研究发现,城市群政策有效提升了地区的金融发展质量,一方面提升了金融发展总量,另一方面弥合了地区间的金融发展差距,由此实现了总量和均衡的双重拟合。进一步地,本文确证了方言一致性在整体上有助于城市群政策发挥积极作用,不仅在城市群内部促进了金融协调发展,还在城市群分割处弱化了由城市群政策带来的市场分割效应,体现了非正式制度在"正式制度-金融要素"之间扮演的重要角色。从机制上看,与城市群密切相关的地方文化--方言,更多的是通过经济个体间的身份认同(信任)来促成地区间的金融协调发展。鉴于此,本文认为对城市群的划分和发展,不仅要考虑地理距离,还应考虑以方言为代表的文化距离,并提出了相应的政策建议。